Micklebot
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13 of his 15 goals came in the first 26 games, i don't think it's a smart move to expect him to recreate that next year.
Proposal: Free agency edition Trade Rumours/Proposals [MOD - Stay on Topic] 5
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Bjornar Moxnes
Fordi fellesskap fungerer
Probably not but he's still fine as a depth forward if he's willing to sign for cheap.
Micklebot
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Sure, if he's coming cheap he's a reasonable depth player, keep him around for the 12-13th forward that can play up the line in a pinch. Does he want to stick around on a near league min contract, or does he want to test the market and see if he can parlay his early season success into some financial security?
I wouldn't move on from him for the sake of it, but do you offer him a one way deal, I'm not sure I would, at least not without seeing what the other options are.
Senovision
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At least he has scored goals this season.
The whole team has had problems scoring goals the last 20 games.
Brady 1 goal in 11
Giroux got his first in 14 games
Batherson 1 goal in his last 18 games.
Gaudrtte has 2 in his last games.
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Micklebot
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When discussing next season, I'm far more concerned with whether he will in the future than whether he has in the past.
His 15 goals are more than double his xGF, and if he isn't scoring he doesn't really do anything for you.
Senovision
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Micklebot
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No, but we can make educated guesses, I don't know that Cousins won't outpace McDavid for the remainder of the season, but I can look at the data and understand that the likelihood of that happening is very very small.
If you want to bet on a long shot, go ahead. I'd rather have the odds in my favour.
Senovision
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How about these 2 no shows.....
Amadio 2 goals.at $2.6 million a year.
Perron 0 goals at $4 million a year and regressing.
And we have these two overpaid albatrosses next year as well.
What's your "educated guess" for these two players next year?
Micklebot
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My guess is both will score more than their current pace, Amadio has played well away from the puck, and Perron has an exceedingly small sample that has context around it so obvious you can't possible not know about it, so congrats on the incredibly Intellectually dishonest comparison. Whataboutism isn't usually my thing though, but you do you. Even if those contracts aren't great, it doesn't mean that re-signing Gaudette is smart, like, your argument is literally we signed these guys who are underperfoming their deals, so we should sign this guy who all signs point towards not being a smart signing.
Senovision
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Whats dishonest the numbers are 2 goals for those 2 players at $6.2 million.
And Gaudette has 15 and gets less ice time and makes $850,000.
Those are the facts like them or not
Micklebot
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If you don't understand what you're reading, why even replying?
Gaudette isn't likely to reproduce his 15 goals, we're seeing the real Gaudette right now, a guy that is terrible in his own end, doesn't create anything on his own, but has a great shot. If he's going to sign at 850k again, sure, sign him to be our 13th forward, but he'd have been a healthy scratch long ago if not for injuries,
Perron has played a dozen games, either dealing with a highly emotional and distracting family situation, or coming off a long term injury, we haven't seen what he has to offer at this point (hint, that context is relevant in looking forward at what to expect and why the comparison is intellectually dishonest), that said, the contract may still end up being a bad one, but that doesn't mean we should make more mistakes by expecting Gaudette to be more than he is.
Amadio has been about as snake bitten as Gaudette was shooting over expected early this season, but unlike Gaudette, when Amadio isn't scoring, he's still a useful player. He is sound defensively, and plays a smart game at both ends of the ice. I'd bet on him getting back to his norm of ~15g 30pts pace before betting on Gaudette being an NHL regular next year, but again, even if I give you that Amadio's deal isn't great, it doesn't mean signing Gaudette to anything other than a 13th forward deal next year is a smart decision.
Whataboutism does not make signing Gaudette to anything but a 13th forward contract smart.
Senovision
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Gaudette plays 3 minutes less a game than Amadio and has proportionately the same amount of hits as Amadio if you figure in ice time.
Gaudette is plus 10. He is 3rd on the team in this statistic. He plays well away from the puck. He is plus 10.
Amadio is plus 2
Gaudette leads the team in shooting percentage.
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Micklebot
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Do you think there might be a reason why the coach is playing Gaudette 3 mins less a game, with more PP time and less PK time? Why Gaudette has the 2nd highest OZ start% on the team while Amadio has among the lowest? Do you think it's relevant that Gaudette has some of the lowest QOC stats on the team, while Amadio is more middle of the pack?
One guy is as sheltered as a player gets, the other one can be used in all situations. If they both play full seasons next year, you can probably expect about a 30 pts pace, but one guy will do it without needing to be getting sheltered mins while the other needs to be hidden from defensive assignments.
Gaudette is good for one thing, his shot. So we shoe horn him into situations to use it, which is fine when we don't have better options and are chasing the game. There is value in that role. But he is easily the first guy out of the lineup when Gregor and cousins are back imo.
It’s not close.
Gaudette is not going to be in the NHL very soon.
When we get bodies back and maybe an add at the deadline he’s the odd man out
Senovision
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Gaudette is plus 10. He is 4th on the team in plus minus.
He is ahead of many of our players in many many statistical categories as I have shown in my posts which i have used in my arguments and in my opinion should be back next year based on his achievements this year which are impressive.
We agree to disagree
Micklebot
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Plus minus is not a stat for serious people, just watch the guy, he isn't prepositionally sound in his own end. He's not breaking up plays, he's losing his man.
Credit where it's due, he had a surprisingly good start to the year, but he hasn't been able to keep that up.
We give him 67% oz starts...
Among the lowest QOC on the team whether it's corsi based or TOI% based.
His PDO is 1.044, that's not sustainable, the writing is on the wall, his achievements this year are unlikely to repeat, especially if you give him anything other than sheltered mins.
Senovision
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I have a lot of other "serious stats" in my argument. I incorporated about 5 or 6 stats but anyways.......
We agree to disagree
The whole team is down from their scoring ways the last 20 games so he is in that category but not as bad as most of the team in the last 10 or 15 games or so. It has been a drought for our 4 or 5 top players as well as you know.
The other thing is that Gaudette has proven to be successful playing up or down in the lineup. Players can give him a pass and he scores. At 25% shooting percentage I like his chances and he has a great shot.
They tried Amadio up in the lineup at the start of the season and he was a play killer. He has cement hands.
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anybody think we could look at moving Amadio at the deadline as part of a package? Team could use more spice in the lineup and he's giving me Tyler Motte vibes
Oatmeal
Oatmeal
We had to pay to dump Joseph. Who would take this guy as a + in any deal? What has he brought this year that is tangibly better than the guy we paid to get rid of after he posted 11/24/35 in 72 games last year? It's a bad signing that we're gonna have to live with or find a creative way to get out of.
Micklebot
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Sure, other players are going through a drought too, but unlike Gaudette, outside of Giroux (1.008) they all have a PDO under 1.000. You can expect all of them to move towards 1.000, if Gaudette moves towards 1.000 though, that's bad news for him. He's top 30 in the league among those with 300+ mins in PDO in spite of that drought.
The question is what should we expect from Gaudette.
If we continue to shelter him the way we have, and he gets all 82 games, I'd guess somewhere around a dozen to 15 goals, and 30 pts.
If we move away from sheltering him, I don't think he stays in the lineup.
I'm hopeful we can be in a situation where we don't have a player like Gaudette in our top 9, and I would prefer a 4th line that doesn't need 70% OZ starts.
We are currently playing Highmore ahead of him. let that sink in. When Gaudette isn't scoring, we're playing our 5th callup on the depth chart ahead of him.
I feel like we have bigger fish to fry than Michael Amadio, especially considering we just gave him a 3 year contract...
This team needs to sort out its scoring though, as much as I DON'T think Gaudette is the answer, I DO think we have the wrong mix in our top 6...
Tkachuk - Stutzle - XXX - needs a finisher, team doesn't want to put Norris there so we get some combination of Giroux, Gaudette and Batherson.
XXX - Norris - Batherson - Needs grit and a set-up man, I view Batherson as more of a "skill" guy than a pure passer. Giroux is a good two-way forward but isn't much of a crash and bang guy... Norris and Bath need someone to open up space for them. Can we duplicate Brady and Josh? Give Stu his finisher and give Norris and Bath there tough guy?
Wondercarrot
By The Power of Canadian Tire Centre
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Happy we caught some lighting in a bottle with Gaudette earlier this year but IMO he’s too slow and soft for a permanent top 6 spot.
He’s got a great shot - which he’s had a harder time getting off the last 6 weeks or so - but he’s not good enough at keeping plays alive in the ozone, and I don’t find his vision passing is top 6
I hope he gets a couple years from someone but I just don’t see it for us.
aragorn
Do The Right Thing
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I like the idea of adding an enforcer type like Mathieu Olivier RW (UFA) for the playoff push or to sign him in the off season for next yr. This would take a great deal of pressure off Tkachuk & help a number of other players.
The Devilish Buffoon
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Total pipe dream, but I would kill for Ryan O'Reilly. Only way it could work would be if NSH values Norris relatively highly, which might be the case given Trotz' preferences in play style, roster construction, and retooling over rebuilding.
To NSH: Norris +
To OTT: ROR +any mix of Novak, Schenn, and McCarron
To NSH: Norris +
To OTT: ROR +any mix of Novak, Schenn, and McCarron
