Proposal: Free agency edition Trade Rumours/Proposals [MOD - Stay on Topic] 5

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Carolina is the model franchise. They draft right, they sign the right deals or move on, they play the right way.

And also may never get over the hump because they never really go for it and draw so many hard lines, but sure does help having a successful team year in, year out.

 

[Blotto71]

Carolina is unfair.

Frustrating to see good teams ahead of us, even ones trading away picks and prospects going for it — actually in the playoffs competitively

I think it is somewhat unfair to Ottawa, he ranks Jarventie and Boucher ahead of Ostaptchuk and Halliday. I don't think that would move the needle tremendously, but it might make it a teeny bit better...28th?

 

[Dionysus]

With the lack of top-end talent and depth in the pool, I think the Sens need to be creative in finding some prospects. Signing some European talent wouldn't hurt. Lots of room for them to come over and show what they can do.

 

[PlayOn]

I think it is somewhat unfair to Ottawa, he ranks Jarventie and Boucher ahead of Ostaptchuk and Halliday. I don't think that would move the needle tremendously, but it might make it a teeny bit better...28th?

I don’t know why people care about his rankings tbh, this guy had Stützle 10th overall and said our prospect rankings dropped after our 2020 draft lol.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

Carolina is higher than us because aside from not giving away picks like candy, they don't constantly draft players 30 spots above the consensus ranking.

 

[BondraTime]

Bader is awful, but the Sens are definitely around the bottom 5/3 in the league for prospects

 

[Ouroboros]

Carolina is unfair.

Frustrating to see good teams ahead of us, even ones trading away picks and prospects going for it — actually in the playoffs competitively

Carolina constantly gets hyped on Bader's lists because they seem to be drafting off an algorithm nearly identical to his own model. Remember he had Zion Nybeck and Alexander Pashin ranked as the 12th and 13th best prospects for the 2020 draft? Carolina got them in the 4th and 7th rounds respectively which made them the big winners of that draft. Turns out the only way either of those guys will see an NHL game is if they buy a ticket. The 14th ranked prospect? Jake Sanderson.

That's not to say that the Sens prospects aren't super weak; they absolutely are. But it's worth understanding that this ranking is based solely on production, so it is likely underestimating the potential impact of guys like Ostapchuk, Kleven and Andonovski who have projectable frames and skillsets that aren't necessarily reflected in counting stats.

 

[Micklebot]

Carolina constantly gets hyped on Bader's lists because they seem to be drafting off an algorithm nearly identical to his own model. Remember he had Zion Nybeck and Alexander Pashin ranked as the 12th and 13th best prospects for the 2020 draft? Carolina got them in the 4th and 7th rounds respectively which made them the big winners of that draft. Turns out the only way either of those guys will see an NHL game is if they buy a ticket. The 14th ranked prospect? Jake Sanderson.

That's not to say that the Sens prospects aren't super weak; they absolutely are. But it's worth understanding that this ranking is based solely on production, so it is likely underestimating the potential impact of guys like Ostapchuk, Kleven and Andonovski who have projectable frames and skillsets that aren't necessarily reflected in counting stats.

Bader is pretty terrible but with the previous three drafts having us trade away two 1st round picks and picking Boucher with the third, that alone should be enough to justify the ranking.

I do think we have some potentially underrated prospects for the reasons you mentioned, but that's not really moving the needle.

 

[Blotto71]

I don’t know why people care about his rankings tbh, this guy had Stützle 10th overall and said our prospect rankings dropped after our 2020 draft lol.

I really don't "care" as much as I find it interesting. He isn't wrong that the cupboards are pretty bare. And if you look at the team's ranking near the Sens, some recent cup winners and all perennial playoff teams. I think it does fairly accurately demonstrate the complete debacle that was the 5 years prior to last year.

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

I think it is somewhat unfair to Ottawa, he ranks Jarventie and Boucher ahead of Ostaptchuk and Halliday. I don't think that would move the needle tremendously, but it might make it a teeny bit better...28th?

I think that had their chance a couple years ago but had a ton of untimely injuries to their top players. They certainly give themselves a chance every year though.

 

[ijif]

Carolina constantly gets hyped on Bader's lists because they seem to be drafting off an algorithm nearly identical to his own model. Remember he had Zion Nybeck and Alexander Pashin ranked as the 12th and 13th best prospects for the 2020 draft? Carolina got them in the 4th and 7th rounds respectively which made them the big winners of that draft. Turns out the only way either of those guys will see an NHL game is if they buy a ticket. The 14th ranked prospect? Jake Sanderson.

That's not to say that the Sens prospects aren't super weak; they absolutely are. But it's worth understanding that this ranking is based solely on production, so it is likely underestimating the potential impact of guys like Ostapchuk, Kleven and Andonovski who have projectable frames and skillsets that aren't necessarily reflected in counting stats.

His model is not solely based on production. At the very least, it also attempts to account for age.

 

[Benjamin]

With the lack of top-end talent and depth in the pool, I think the Sens need to be creative in finding some prospects. Signing some European talent wouldn't hurt. Lots of room for them to come over and show what they can do.

Why bother? Not like we'll give em a chance.

 

[PlayOn]

I really don't "care" as much as I find it interesting. He isn't wrong that the cupboards are pretty bare. And if you look at the team's ranking near the Sens, some recent cup winners and all perennial playoff teams. I think it does fairly accurately demonstrate the complete debacle that was the 5 years prior to last year.

Honestly, I think prospect pool rankings are largely useless, interesting as they might be.

A team like Pittsburgh with an aging core needs way more prospects than we do, for example. I get that we finished at the bottom last year, but I think the team quality is more bubble team anyway.

Let’s say you have 2 top 4 dmen in the pool, 2 top 9 forwards and and a goalie… do you really need much more? We technically already have our top centers, wingers and defenceman on the roster and they are all young-ish.

Not really disputing it’s a weak prospect pool so much as I’m not sure it matters all that much. More disappointed that our picks were used for players that didn’t fit than the fact that they were used.

 

[Dionysus]

Why bother? Not like we'll give em a chance.

Smejkal got games last year. Just not enough footspeed for the role. Chance to use the resources new ownership is bringing in to find some more depth talent. Zub has worked out well.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Carolina is the model franchise. They draft right, they sign the right deals or move on, they play the right way.

They draft fine. They’re always a top blogger lists. And those players don’t really pan out. It’s like scouching running someone’s draft board.

 

[Ouroboros]

His model is not solely based on production. At the very least, it also attempts to account for age.

There are some other inputs, but they are simply there as modifying factors for the raw production. It's still exclusively an NHLe based model. He's come up with some sort of normalizing factor for age is all. His model does not, and cannot, account for the players who will make the NHL for reasons other than scoring.

I don't think what Bader does is totally useless. I think it's good for providing the initial data set for figuring out what players could potentially be star producers, but it is clearly spitting out far too many false positives to put much credence into it.

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

Honestly, I think prospect pool rankings are largely useless, interesting as they might be.

A team like Pittsburgh with an aging core needs way more prospects than we do, for example. I get that we finished at the bottom last year, but I think the team quality is more bubble team anyway.

Let’s say you have 2 top 4 dmen in the pool, 2 top 9 forwards and and a goalie… do you really need much more? We technically already have our top centers, wingers and defenceman on the roster and they are all young-ish.

Not really disputing it’s a weak prospect pool so much as I’m not sure it matters all that much. More disappointed that our picks were used for players that didn’t fit than the fact that they were used.

The disappointing part is having a prospect pool significantly inferior to teams that have been competitive long-term. These are teams that have later round picks and/or teams that are trading away multiple picks for rentals. It's sad that a perennial loser has nothing in the cupboards to show for it.

 

[PlayOn]

The disappointing part is having a prospect pool significantly inferior to teams that have been competitive long-term. These are teams that have later round picks and/or teams that are trading away multiple picks for rentals. It's sad that a perennial loser has nothing in the cupboards to show for it.

I picked a random year (2015) and pulled up the top prospect pools:

https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2505679-re-ranking

1. Edmonton
2. Buffalo
3. Winnipeg
4. Arizona
5. Anaheim
6. Columbus
7. Calgary
8. NYI
9. Toronto
10. Detroit

How many combined playoff rounds has this list won after Edmonton?

All it tells me is how you manage your team matters a hell of a lot more than your prospect pool ranking.

Edit: this article is actually kind of funny to read because so many of these prospects don’t actually pan out. This was my favourite part for Columbus:

The Blue Jackets are strong in net, where Anton Forsberg and Joonas Korpisalo have eclipsed high pick Oscar Dansk on the team depth chart.

 

[Alex1234]

Damn. Secret is out!!

https://x.com/i/web/status/1809275023636722010

Wow lol

 

[Crosside]

Rutger for Ottawa first ( top 5 protected ) + JBD. Let’s go Steve

 

[ijif]

Delete: Pedantic Argument

 

[BondraTime]

Rutger for Ottawa first ( top 5 protected ) + JBD. Let’s go Steve

Can’t protect their pick for 2 years

 

[Crosside]

Can’t protect their pick for 2 years

No problem, the team will finish in eastern conference finals

 

[squashmaple]

Edit: this article is actually kind of funny to read because so many of these prospects don’t actually pan out. This was my favourite part for Columbus:

The Blue Jackets are strong in net, where Anton Forsberg and Joonas Korpisalo have eclipsed high pick Oscar Dansk on the team depth chart.

And they were good prospects, too. They won a Calder Cup as a tandem the next season. But with Bob under contract for another several years, they were blocked and stagnated, and then the bottom fell out of the organization at the same time Covid hit. But every team has a former good prospect with a story like that.

(edit: ah hell, I was searching Korpisalo to see what Bruins fans were thinking, and thought this was a main boards post. sorry, Sens fans)

 

[PlayOn]

And they were good prospects, too. They won a Calder Cup as a tandem the next season. But with Bob under contract for another several years, they were blocked and stagnated, and then the bottom fell out of the organization at the same time Covid hit. But every team has a former good prospect with a story like that.

(edit: ah hell, I was searching Korpisalo to see what Bruins fans were thinking, and thought this was a main boards post. sorry, Sens fans)

No one could have predicted that Korpisalo’s 20/20 vision would deteriorate and no one would get him glasses.

All jokes aside though, I actually still like Forsberg and think he’s underrated, so I believe you.