Proposal: Free agency edition Trade Rumours/Proposals [MOD - Stay on Topic] 5

[Golden_Jet]

Yeah, I disagree. TB was 7 points clear of a wildcard spot last year despite getting shit goaltending for 32 games and if you move past the sentimental stuff, Guentzel over Stamkos is an improvement, especially at 5v5.

Yep we both disagree, they’re a bubble team.

 

[HSF]

A slowing down Carlson put up 52 points last year on a low-scoring team. More than Chychrun has ever put up in his entire career.

The problem with Chychrun is that this is a league where offensive defenseman are now putting up 60+ points a season, and the elite guys are at ~80. With those numbers, teams will look away from some defensive deficiencies.

But you can't be a 40 point guy while ignoring your own end.

Chychrun has also played on bottom of the barrel teams. He will do better on a team that is better

 

[CallSaul]

Yep we both disagree, they’re a bubble team.

Unfortunately if that ends up being the case, we're probably picking top 10 again because they're way ahead of us.

 

[BondraTime]

Tampa may be one of the most improved team's just based on who they aren't playing this year.

For 75% of the year were throwing out a D of:

Hedman-Raddysh
de Haan-Cernak
Lilliberg-Perbix
Fleury

That's quite literally one of the worst units in the league

This year it's

Hedman-Raddysh
McDongah-Cernak
Moser-Perbix

Not to mention missing the best goalie in the league for the first 30 games of the season.

The Tampa team is much improved, same weakness as last season in secondary scoring and RD, but their strengths will be improved with a ridiculously strong LD and thier starting goalie playing

 

[Micklebot]

Some teams will get better, while others will get worse. Ultimately, it's still really difficult for 9/10 teams to make the playoffs because there are only 16 spots in a 32 team league. Even if Boston is worse and New Jersey is better, or Florida is worse and the Islanders are better, the challenge is still the same.

Outside of maybe 6-8 contenders spread across the league, no one team is guaranteed a playoff spot. There is also so much volatility and luck. I don't think we are anywhere near close to the point where we have built a legitimate contender.

Look at it this way, the perception is that we have stunk the last few years but 2 years ago had we beaten the Panthers in game 79, and made up a random 4 points in the season, we would have made the playoffs. Isn't the absurd?

So, the difference between 2022-23 sens vs 2023-24

	22-23​	23-24​
GF​	261​	255​
FA​	271​	281​
Pts	86​	78​

We weren't that much worse outside of goaltending,

 

[The Waffler]

or the Brother of an owner, being part of the propaganda tool!

Here I was watching CNN yesterday. And wouldn't you know it. A Supreme Court stacked with Trump Loyalists. One whose wife encouraged the Jan 6th capital riots and another whose wife (Allegedly) flies an upside down flag (MAGA symbol). They side with Trump.

NO!!!.. NO!!!! I was so sure they would rule against him. Now I have to sell my house to pay off the gambling debt. I bet it all on Trump losing his appeal.

Remember," there are no Americans in Baghdad".. chemical Ali.

You are on a roll today!

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Tampa did great work to leverage their position as a premier destination to get talent.

They basically traded Sergachev for McDonagh, Moser, Geekie, and a 4th. *The 2nd and 7ths are offsetting in both trades.

Then they traded the cap space they would use on Stamkos for Guentzel.

Those trades aren't entirely cap neutral. Depending on what they pay Moser, they might lose another piece by proxy since those trades add a few million to what their cap might have been if they kept Sergachev and Stamkos.

Still, I don't think you will find anyone who will say they would take the other end of those trades for Tampa.

The Sergachev trade in particular, when you consider who little age will matter with McDonagh because Tampa's window might close in the next 2-3 seasons, they got an absolute haul through those two trades.

Sergachev for McDonagh is similar to the personnel swap we made with Chychrun for Jensen where fit wise, McDonagh is what they need. That doesn't account for adding Moser.

So, the difference between 2022-23 sens vs 2023-24

	22-23​	23-24​
GF​	261​	255​
FA​	271​	281​
Pts	86​	78​

We weren't that much worse outside of goaltending,

The main point I am making is that I don't think it's productive to look at which teams might have fallen or not fallen, because the league is so random and volatile for all but a small number of teams. There is a lot of luck involved and I don't think we're at the point where we are guaranteed a spot. The team has been perceived as bad for the last few years, yet we were a win and a few bad bounces in other close games away from the playoffs 2 years ago.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Holy f*** did the Oilers ever clean up. That is one hell of a forward group they've got.

 

[DJB]

At minimum I think it's safe to assume he's a 40g-40a guy on Tampa's top line, at worst a Stamkos replacement playing with Kucherov and Point; their right side is definitely an issue, but they improved their left side by a gigantic margin. They went from:

Hedman
34 games of Sergachev
de Haan/Fleury
Lilliberg

to

Hedman
McD/Moser
McD/Moser

That's a gigantic improvement

That’s also assuming Hedman and McD/Moser are healthy as well

Works both ways (I’m merely playing devils advocate here)

 

[CallSaul]

Chychrun has also played on bottom of the barrel teams. He will do better on a team that is better

Sure, but that kind of speaks to what Chychrun is. He's a complimentary player who, in the right situation and role, could be effective. He's not a needle-mover.

It sucks that Pierre Dorion didn't realize that and traded a haul for him, but that happened and you can't change it.

I don't think he had much value this summer. If we had traded him for futures, I think it would've been a Marino-esque return (two 2nds).

Personally I prefer Jensen and a 3rd because at least it fills a need.

Holy f*** did the Oilers ever clean up. That is one hell of a forward group they've got.

Skinner - McDavid - Hyman
Holloway - Draisaitl - Arvidsson
McLeod - Nugent-Hopkins - Kane
Janmark - Henrique - Brown

If they stay healthy, that's an awesome group.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

So why are you not having that same attitude with Toronto or Boston?

Just like those teams did, we identified our weaknesses and made moves that on paper address them.

Because those teams are good. A good team improving means more than a bad team improving.

Toronto or Boston improving means they can hope to go deeper in the playoffs. Our improvement means we can hope to finish around 20th? Sure it is an improvement and that's good, but hard to feel positive about that being the reasonable expectation for us.

I hope for better than that, I want to think making the playoffs is possible. I don't think we've done enough so far to think it is within reach, not when the other teams in the division are also improving. Just keeping up isn't good enough, we need a big improvement.

EDIT: and to be fair, maybe we will take the big step forward with these moves (and signing Pinto hopefully), it isn't impossible. I don't mind the moves (except Perron, I loathe that guy and with our luck this is the year he falls off a cliff and produces around 20 points) but I'm not sure they amount to enough to warrant a lot of positivity right now.

 

[CallSaul]

Because those teams are good. A good team improving is means more than a bad team improving.

Toronto or Boston improving means they can hope to go deeper in the playoffs. Our improvement means we can hope to finish around 20th? Sure it is an improvement and that's good, but hard to feel positive about that being the reasonable expectation for us.

At the end of the day, the improvements that will actually move the needle from us will be internal. Everything other than Ullmark is nice depth, but the real questions are:

• Can Stützle bounce back and put up 40G and 95-100P?
• Can Sanderson take the 3rd year leap and play at a level where he's in the Norris conversation?
• Can either Norris or Pinto cement the #2 C spot and put up 60-65P?

All of those things could happen, and if they do, I think we're a 95-100 point team and very much in the wildcard hunt.

But if not? Yeah, we probably still improve, but we won't really be in the mix.

 

[Big Muddy]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1808143860700266694

After the first two, this feels a bit like York has created the checklist to match our acquisitions rather than matched our acquisitions to an existing checklist,

I haven’t been able to unravel my thinking on Amadio or Perron. I hope York’s assessment is correct.

The Amadio we saw in Ottawa and then Toronto wasn’t anything special. But, then he did seem pretty decent & effective with VGK. So, which version is the one that we will see this year?

Perron seems like an overpayment, but that doesn’t mean it can’t or won’t work. Then again, I suppose $4 m doesn’t buy that much in free agency any more.

I’m still mulling things over.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

After the first two, this feels a bit like York has created the checklist to match our acquisitions rather than matched our acquisitions to an existing checklist,

He had Jensen as his top target for the Sens last year I think it was. It was brought up on the Coming In Hot podcast yesterday I think.

To his credit on that front, he has been consistent. I only recently restarted listening cause Simmer is on it, no idea how true that was but Wallace brought it up.

Amadio should be good get for our really weak bottom 6, Ullmark is an upgrade and Jensen is a fit on a paper. I'm not as high on the upside of those moves (Jensen and Perron are older) but it is hard to deny that those were the kinds of move that needed to happen. The GM can only deal with the team "on paper" in the offseason.

 

[Big Muddy]

It sort of is, though.

Boston improved, but not by as much as some imo make it out to be. They failed in acquiring a #1 center to address their biggest need, but did get a very solid backup plan. I see that as similar to us failing to acquire a coveted top 4 RHD, but landing a solid backup option in Jensen (obviously Lindholm is better than Jensen but relative to the target). On the flip side, we absolutely made a massive upgrade on our biggest weakness (goaltending).

Boston was a playoff team, and I expect them to continue to be a playoff team, so I don't know why we'd right them off, but I actually am far more worried about the improvements NJD and Was made, those are the teams we are competing with for the wild card spots, not Toronto, TBL and Boston.

Write them off is a bit of a strong term, although ostensibly many have done that in the past. Making the playoffs is probably a better way of putting it. It sounds like you’re saying that the Atlantic division won’t change much this year at least in the top part of it.

Ya, I agree on NJD and Washington. If those 2 teams improve, it makes the achieving a wildcard slot more difficult. I haven’t done a deep dive on the Islanders, but maybe they’ve improved a little as well.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Skinner - McDavid - Hyman
Holloway - Draisaitl - Arvidsson
McLeod - Nugent-Hopkins - Kane
Janmark - Henrique - Brown

If they stay healthy, that's an awesome group.

Hands down the best forward group in the league imo. Arguably ever in the Cap era. There may still be a cap casualty there though which is almost guaranteed to be Kane and/or Ceci.

 

[GCK]

Write them off is a bit of a strong term, although ostensibly many have done that in the past. Making the playoffs is probably a better way of putting it. It sounds like you’re saying that the Atlantic division won’t change much this year at least in the top part of it.

Ya, I agree on NJD and Washington. If those 2 teams improve, it makes the achieving a wildcard slot more difficult. I haven’t done a deep dive on the Islanders, but maybe they’ve improved a little as well.

Atlantic is very tough. Having said that we need a decent start and have to find a way to be western conference teams on the road, if we do we are right in the mix.

 

[Micklebot]

Write them off is a bit of a strong term, although ostensibly many have done that in the past. Making the playoffs is probably a better way of putting it. It sounds like you’re saying that the Atlantic division won’t change much this year at least in the top part of it.

Ya, I agree on NJD and Washington. If those 2 teams improve, it makes the achieving a wildcard slot more difficult. I haven’t done a deep dive on the Islanders, but maybe they’ve improved a little as well.

There's usually a surprise or two, maybe Boston loses Swayman to injury and is in trouble, maybe Florida isn't as good with their new look D. What happens if Kucherov gets hurt.

That said, I think this year it will take 100 pts to get an Atlantic divisional spot, and high 90s for the two wild card spots.

If we want to make the playoffs, I'm targeting 98 pts, it will be like the west last year.

 

[GCK]

Branny signs for 1 year 900K in Colorado.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

Branny signs for 1 year 900K in Colorado.

Significant haircut in terms of salary. Hopefully he does well there.

 

[Big Muddy]

Branny signs for 1 year 900K in Colorado.

Hmmm - Kelly now Brannstrom. The Avs have an affinity for ex Sens.

Note - Edited.

 

[Micklebot]

Hmmm - Kelly now Brannstrom. The Avs have an infinity for ex Sens.

Idk... that seems like a lot of ex sens... That can't be cap compliant, can it?

 

[Hale The Villain]

Sakic knows a deal when he sees one.

Decent bottom pairing D for 900k is a no brainer

 

[Big Muddy]

There's usually a surprise or two, maybe Boston loses Swayman to injury and is in trouble, maybe Florida isn't as good with their new look D. What happens if Kucherov gets hurt.

That said, I think this year it will take 100 pts to get an Atlantic divisional spot, and high 90s for the two wild card spots.

If we want to make the playoffs, I'm targeting 98 pts, it will be like the west last year.

Well, yes a key injury or two to top players can change things. But, that’s so random, I can’t even begin to consider it at least right now.

 

[CallSaul]

Makes sense for Colorado. With the uncertainty around Nichushkin, they have the worst cap situation in the league and just need warm bodies.

Not at all surprised that the league sees Brannstrom as a minimum salary player, though. Giving him $2M last summer was mind boggling.