I think people underestimate how much parity there is in this league, so I rarely see playoffs as "impossible"
You mention needing to replace Tarasenko, we 25-31-3 with him and 12-9-1 after trading him. I'm not saying he wasn't a good player for us, but we clearly managed without him.
You mention Norris as a question mark, and while I agree that there is some question wrt his shoulder, what we do know is it wasn't right all season anyways, and our record after shutting him down for the season didn't really suffer
Goalies are certainly a question mark, though I'm skeptical that they could be worse (particularly if Staios addresses the position).
Batherson being hot an cold, sure? But it's not like he's the difference between good or not.
Giroux could slow down, but Stu could (and likely should) be better given he played the season with a wrist issue from game 4 that clearly impacted his shot. two seasons ago he was a 90 pts player, and he;s still developing.
I think having Pinto from game 1 will be huge. We paced at 90 pts from the day he returned. That's with Tank traded halfway through and Norris shut down for the final 25,
I think a good defensive minded RHD in Chychrun's place is a good starting point, if we can get a top goalie like Ulmark that would be great, if not, a middle six forward and top four RHD should make a massive improvement.
Just an example:
Tkachuk-Stutzle-Giroux
Greig-Pinto-Batherson
C.Smith-Norris-Joseph
Kelly-Kastelic-Ostapchuk
Sanderson-Zub
Chabot-Tanev
Kleven-JBD
Markstrom
Korpisalo
Extra: Hamonic, MacEwen
That's a cap compliant roster using UFA
projected contracts from AFP Analytics. Pinto at 5.25, Smith at 1.1, Tanev at 4.5, Kelly at 1.25. Forsberg and Chychrun traded out to get Markstrom.
Alternatively, instead of trading for Markstrom, we could go after a UFA goalie like Stolarz, Samsonov or Ritich for somewhere around 2.5 mil, and with the extra 3.5 upgrade Smith to D.Joshua (3.25), and Tanev to Roy (5.8). Alternatively, keep Tanev and upgrade JBD to Hakanpaa (1.5)
Tkachuk-Stutzle-Giroux
Greig-Pinto-Batherson
D.Joshua-Norris-Joseph
Kelly-Kastelic-Ostapchuk
Sanderson-Zub
Chabot-Tanev
Kleven-Hakanpaa
Stolarz/Samsonov?
Korpisalo
Extra: Hamonic, MacEwen