Proposal: Free agency edition Trade Rumours/Proposals [MOD - Stay on Topic] 5

[Sens of Anarchy]

We might be able to trade Norris for a best days are passed Vet with 2-3 years left where they can still be effective, A retooling team trying to get younger and stay relevant .. A team like Tampa and a player like Stamkos .. that contract situation is not likely to work out in a way the Sens could get him but that type of scenario.... Maybe Boston and Coyle maybe a plus would be another example,

 

[Hale The Villain]

I know who all these prospects are. That doesn’t guarantee individual or team success at the NHL level.

I also know sens fans made similar comments about their defensive prospect depth in 2010-2011 when they had Rundblad, the best defenseman outside the NHL, Cowen a top 10 pick who looked like a lock to be a top shutdown option and Wiercioch who looked like a decent two way top 4 guy.

Celebrini and Smith are tiers above as prospects than those guys. Not even close as far as comparables go.

I also know the sens, the team we both spend hours discussing on this message board, have faced significant difficulty in their rebuild relying only on young, unproven centres. It’s been a major talking point all year. Look no further than any pre/post game show with Jamie Baker and he talks about young centermen hurting the team.

Rebuilding teams can’t rely only on prospects. They need to mix in veterans. Like I said, I’m not sure Norris is the right guy, but arguing they shouldn’t be interested in someone who has proven to be a legit top 6 C because they have excellent centre prospects is a recipe for a 10 year rebuild.

Blows my mind someone who watches the sens of all teams doesn’t understand this.

I haven't mentioned him because I thought pointing out that having two top 5 drafted center prospects and two other 1st round drafted center prospects would make it incredibly obvious Norris isn't a fit in San Jose, but since we're still having this argument they also have Logan Couture, an actual veteran center that is signed for several years and apparently has no intention of leaving San Jose.

Thinking Norris is a fit in San Jose shows a complete lack of understanding of their situation. It's not something they'd even consider.

 

[Cosmix]

Balance. There is a time for patience, and a time for action. Don't confuse the two.

I don't.

 

[Bileur]

Celebrini and Smith are tiers above as prospects than those guys. Not even close as far as comparables go.



I haven't mentioned him because I thought pointing out that having two top 5 drafted center prospects and two other 1st round drafted center prospects would make it incredibly obvious Norris isn't a fit in San Jose, but since we're still having this argument they also have Logan Couture, an actual veteran center that is signed for several years and apparently has no intention of leaving San Jose.

Thinking Norris is a fit in San Jose shows a complete lack of understanding of their situation. It's not something they'd even consider.

Pick someone else then. Again, just looking at our team. Daigle and Yashin. Easily higher touted as prospects than Celebrini and Smith. Never got close to the promised land with them, even if Yashin became an all star.

I said in two separate posts that Norris isn’t necessarily a fit.

As Mick said, the point is you don’t count your chickens before they hatch.

 

[DJB]

Nobody is taking on the Norris contract (that even before the injuries was bloated) with all the uncertainty surrounding his injuries and inability to stay healthy…..unless we overpay with adding in picks and retaining.

Since that doesn’t make sense for Ottawa we are better off holding him and hoping he can recover or send him to LTIR.

 

[aragorn]

We might be able to trade Norris for a best days are passed Vet with 2-3 years left where they can still be effective, A retooling team trying to get younger and stay relevant .. A team like Tampa and a player like Stamkos .. that contract situation is not likely to work out in a way the Sens could get him but that type of scenario.... Maybe Boston and Coyle maybe a plus would be another example,

IMO trading Norris will come back to haunt us like trading Zibinajad, Stutzle is a better playmaker & puck handler but Norris is a better centre & goal scorer & we need both. Norris is a complete centre, he's defensively responsible, plays a 200' game. is excellent in the faceoff dot & is an incredible scorer especially on the powerplay. Not to mention he's Tkachuk's best friend & those talking about Tkachuk leaving this would add fuel to that fire.

It's not that long ago that a Tkachuk - Norris - Batherson line was awsome & it was the Batherson injury from Buff's goalie Dell that prevented Batherson from going to the allstar game. Now that Batherson is healthy & if Norris can get & stay healthy & with Tkachuk they could be a great line again. IMO Norris is just too good a young player to give up on him this early in his career, we made that mistake (because of money) with Zibinajad & looked what he turned into. Let's see if this surgery has fixed his problem, remember Pinto had a serious shoulder injury too & he has rebounded spectacularly.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

There is a bias with evaluation negative value contracts where fans of their respective teams overvalue players they already own.

Ask yourself this question, Josh Norris with the exact same career on another team is bought out and becomes a UFA this summer. Would you want Staios to sign Norris to a 6 year 8M contract?

If the answer is no, then Norris traded anywhere for future considerations or better should be considered a win for Ottawa because you value the 48M of cap space more than you value Norris.

Purely on paper looking at the circumstance, a buyout would be a positive move. They can only buy him out if he is medically cleared. This is the last season he qualifies for the U26 buyout. It is technically a 12 year buyout, but in application it is really only an 8 year buyout that doesn't start for 4 more seasons. That is because the Senators get a cap credit so the dead cap over the first four seasons only averages to 85k per season. After that, it's 1 year at 2.5M and 7 at 1.5M.

That's obviously "on paper". We don't have access to his medical records. We also don't know how Keith Tkachuk feels about it. So there are other factors and stakeholders to consider.

The short of the point is that no one here would want us to sign him to a 6 year 8M per contract if he was a free agent. So why would we want keep him if a team was willing to take that contract from us?

 

[Blotto71]

IMO trading Norris will come back to haunt us like trading Zibinajad, Stutzle is a better playmaker & puck handler but Norris is a better centre & goal scorer & we need both. Norris is a complete centre, he's defensively responsible, plays a 200' game. is excellent in the faceoff dot & is an incredible scorer especially on the powerplay. Not to mention he's Tkachuk's best friend & those talking about Tkachuk leaving this would add fuel to that fire.

It's not that long ago that a Tkachuk - Norris - Batherson line was awsome & it was the Batherson injury from Buff's goalie Dell that prevented Batherson from going to the allstar game. Now that Batherson is healthy & if Norris can get & stay healthy & with Tkachuk they could be a great line again. IMO Norris is just too good a young player to give up on him this early in his career, we made that mistake (because of money) with Zibinajad & looked what he turned into. Let's see if this surgery has fixed his problem, remember Pinto had a serious shoulder injury too & he has rebounded spectacularly.

Pinto had a shoulder injury - one. Norris is recovering from his third surgery - THIRD!

The moment someone makes an offer for Norris that doesn't involve retention or draft picks (from the Sens) it should be accepted.

 

[Cosmix]

Retaining or trading Norris is a risk management decision. It will be interesting to see how it turns out. I am hoping it turns out to the Senators net benefit whether he is traded or retained.

 

[Golden_Jet]

There is a bias with evaluation negative value contracts where fans of their respective teams overvalue players they already own.

Ask yourself this question, Josh Norris with the exact same career on another team is bought out and becomes a UFA this summer. Would you want Staios to sign Norris to a 6 year 8M contract?

If the answer is no, then Norris traded anywhere for future considerations or better should be considered a win for Ottawa because you value the 48M of cap space more than you value Norris.

Purely on paper looking at the circumstance, a buyout would be a positive move. They can only buy him out if he is medically cleared. This is the last season he qualifies for the U26 buyout. It is technically a 12 year buyout, but in application it is really only an 8 year buyout that doesn't start for 4 more seasons. That is because the Senators get a cap credit so the dead cap over the first four seasons only averages to 85k per season. After that, it's 1 year at 2.5M and 7 at 1.5M.

That's obviously "on paper". We don't have access to his medical records. We also don't know how Keith Tkachuk feels about it. So there are other factors and stakeholders to consider.

The short of the point is that no one here would want us to sign him to a 6 year 8M per contract if he was a free agent. So why would we want keep him if a team was willing to take that contract from us?

Zero interest in a buyout that goes to 1936.

 

[Cosmix]

Zero interest in a buyout that goes to 1936.

Nor I; however, it may be the best of a bad set of options. Amortizing the sunk costs over a longer time frame might be optimal.

 

[PlayOn]

Norris isn’t a real buyout candidate. He had a bad year coming off shoulder surgery where he clearly couldn’t even one time a puck and still paced for almost 30 goals.

I still think our best game of the season was against Dallas and Norris was a big part of that. We’re a much better team when he’s in the line-up and going, if we’re gonna give up on players every time they have a bad season we are never getting anywhere.

 

[Micklebot]

Norris isn’t a real buyout candidate. He had a bad year coming off shoulder surgery where he clearly couldn’t even one time a puck and still paced for almost 30 goals.

I still think our best game of the season was against Dallas and Norris was a big part of that. We’re a much better team when he’s in the line-up and going, if we’re gonna give up on players every time they have a bad season we are never getting anywhere.

Well we can't buy him out since he's currently injured so even if it was a good idea we couldn't do it until next season when it becomes a 2/3 buyout instead of 1/3.

I think it's fairly clear the previous surgery wasn't successful, there were issues lingering right till the start of the season, and as you said he didn't really look right all year. I think we can use this past season as a near worst case for the new surgery, so at worst he's a potential 25 g 50 pts guy that is a bit too timid. That's not worth the near 8 mil he's getting but it's not a boat anchor.

On the other hand, I'd the surgery is a success and he's closer to the player that landed him that contract, he's excellent depth for the team.

 

[Golden_Jet]

There is a bias with evaluation negative value contracts where fans of their respective teams overvalue players they already own.

Ask yourself this question, Josh Norris with the exact same career on another team is bought out and becomes a UFA this summer. Would you want Staios to sign Norris to a 6 year 8M contract?

If the answer is no, then Norris traded anywhere for future considerations or better should be considered a win for Ottawa because you value the 48M of cap space more than you value Norris.

Purely on paper looking at the circumstance, a buyout would be a positive move. They can only buy him out if he is medically cleared. This is the last season he qualifies for the U26 buyout. It is technically a 12 year buyout, but in application it is really only an 8 year buyout that doesn't start for 4 more seasons. That is because the Senators get a cap credit so the dead cap over the first four seasons only averages to 85k per season. After that, it's 1 year at 2.5M and 7 at 1.5M.

That's obviously "on paper". We don't have access to his medical records. We also don't know how Keith Tkachuk feels about it. So there are other factors and stakeholders to consider.

The short of the point is that no one here would want us to sign him to a 6 year 8M per contract if he was a free agent. So why would we want keep him if a team was willing to take that contract from us?

He won’t even be medically cleared, even by the second buyout window, (that's if Sens had an arb case).

So the 1/3 window isn’t actually available.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

Selling low on Josh Norris? Asinine asset management.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Selling low on Josh Norris? Asinine asset management.

I feel like we as a fanbase are constantly caught in a need for patience and a desire to fast track loop

The reality is that we need to be patient with Norris to see if the surgery works. Him returning to form for our team is by far the best outcome.

Trading to mitigate further loss would be a disaster if he returned to form, and perhaps more importantly, an awful message to send to the rest of the players; get seriously injured and we’ll dump you off the roster before you can even get a chance to show us that you’ve healed.

At the same time we are tired of waiting for success and the grass always looks greener, but also at the same time the previous attempts to fast track have all failed miserably, but at the same time we have a new management group that could hit home runs instead, but at the same time maybe what sets good management apart is a willingness to show patience when the desire to fast track is strong… and on and on…

I vote we draft our picks, give Norris every chance to bounce back, let our new coaching staff create a strong professional culture and foster roster chemistry, and have management look to make a couple of moves this off season to shore up the two major needs this team has: RD and goaltending.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

He won’t even be medically cleared, even by the second buyout window, (that's if Sens had an arb case).

So the 1/3 window isn’t actually available.

They could strategically take Boris Katchouk to arbitration. He doesn't have a resume that will lead to him getting overpaid in arbitration, and he was a trade deadline mercenary so they won't have to worry about any negative implications of using him as a pawn to open the buyout window.

I'm not suggesting he will be medically cleared in the second buyout window. I am only pointing out that if the only hurdle was getting to the second buyout window, there are ways to do it.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Zero interest in a buyout that goes to 1936.

Look at it this way.

Would you trade an average of 2M x 8 years starting in 2028 (under a cap that should be in excess of 100M) for 8M x 4 years for the next 4 seasons?

Unless they think Norris will just end up LTIRetired, or they have reason to believe that he will get back to form, it's a worthy tradeoff given the Senators current situation.

 

[Micklebot]

Look at it this way.

Would you trade an average of 2M x 8 years starting in 2028 (under a cap that should be in excess of 100M) for 8M x 4 years for the next 4 seasons?

Unless they think Norris will just end up LTIRetired, or they have reason to believe that he will get back to form, it's a worthy tradeoff given the Senators current situation.

How well does Norris need to perform to be worth keeping around in your mind?

We can't buy him out this year, so a buyout will need to be done next offseason and cost on average about 2.8 mil a year.

So, if he performs at the level of a 5 mil player, you break even by buying him out and paying 5 mil for a replacement.

Idk, he paced at 26g and 50 pts this year, can we reliably get that for 5 mil? I think it's probably about 50/50.

There's risk both ways, surgery could be successful and we move on from a guy that was seen as a 1b center capable of 40+ goals and maybe 70+ pts playing a well rounded game.

On the other hand, the surgery could be a failure, and you're buying him out in a couple years.

Personally, I think the potential upside is worth being patient for, and the downside is mostly mitigated by the ability to buy him out at a later date.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

I feel like we as a fanbase are constantly caught in a need for patience and a desire to fast track loop

The reality is that we need to be patient with Norris to see if the surgery works. Him returning to form for our team is by far the best outcome.

Trading to mitigate further loss would be a disaster if he returned to form, and perhaps more importantly, an awful message to send to the rest of the players; get seriously injured and we’ll dump you off the roster before you can even get a chance to show us that you’ve healed.

At the same time we are tired of waiting for success and the grass always looks greener, but also at the same time the previous attempts to fast track have all failed miserably, but at the same time we have a new management group that could hit home runs instead, but at the same time maybe what sets good management apart is a willingness to show patience when the desire to fast track is strong… and on and on…

I vote we draft our picks, give Norris every chance to bounce back, let our new coaching staff create a strong professional culture and foster roster chemistry, and have management look to make a couple of moves this off season to shore up the two major needs this team has: RD and goaltending.

Everyone in their right mind is on board with this plan. It makes the most sense, it's not reactionary, and most importantly it's practical.
I expect Staois to move Chychrun and bring in a solid top-4 RD to give us solid top four corps of Sanderson, Zub, Chabot and X
I also expect Staois to bring in a goaltender to replace Forsberg.

 

[Cosmix]

Norris isn’t a real buyout candidate. He had a bad year coming off shoulder surgery where he clearly couldn’t even one time a puck and still paced for almost 30 goals.

I still think our best game of the season was against Dallas and Norris was a big part of that. We’re a much better team when he’s in the line-up and going, if we’re gonna give up on players every time they have a bad season we are never getting anywhere.

It was not just "a bad season"; it was coming back and playing poorly after a serious injury and missing many games followed another serious injury and missing many games. There is now significant risk attached to Norris due to his injury history and high salary.

Everyone in their right mind is on board with this plan. It makes the most sense, it's not reactionary, and most importantly it's practical.
I expect Staois to move Chychrun and bring in a solid top-4 RD to give us solid top four corps of Sanderson, Zub, Chabot and X
I also expect Staois to bring in a goaltender to replace Forsberg.

Forsberg is a lower salary backup goaltender. Is that the type of goaltender we need?

 

[Micklebot]

It was not just "a bad season"; it was coming back and playing poorly after a serious injury and missing many games followed another serious injury and missing many games. There is now significant risk attached to Norris due to his injury history and high salary.


Forsberg is a lower salary backup goaltender. Is that the type of goaltender we need?

The risk doesn't change by seeing how the surgery goes though. It's either a failure and we buy him out next season, or it's a success and his value is restored.

We just need to be patient, making a move now just locks us into a bad outcome.

 

[Golden_Jet]

They could strategically take Boris Katchouk to arbitration. He doesn't have a resume that will lead to him getting overpaid in arbitration, and he was a trade deadline mercenary so they won't have to worry about any negative implications of using him as a pawn to open the buyout window.

I'm not suggesting he will be medically cleared in the second buyout window. I am only pointing out that if the only hurdle was getting to the second buyout window, there are ways to do it.

Sure it’s a moot point though, since won’t be medically cleared.

So your looking at about 28.6 million spread over 10 years , starting in 2025. The whole point being it’s a 2/3 buyout

 

[BigRig4]

I don't think you can buyout an injured player iirc

 

[Adele Dazeem]

It was not just "a bad season"; it was coming back and playing poorly after a serious injury and missing many games followed another serious injury and missing many games. There is now significant risk attached to Norris due to his injury history and high salary.


Forsberg is a lower salary backup goaltender. Is that the type of goaltender we need?

Staois will want to bring in a goaltender who makes no more than 2-3M on a short term deal, who he can say he brought in to "fix" the problem.
Forsberg will be the victim of this past season's dismal goaltending performances, even if Korpisalo should be shouldering most of the blame.
Korpisalo is an anchor at his current valuation, and the hope will be that he bounces back so that he could either be moved or at worst bought out at a later time.

Stolarz or Brossoit are the two likely candidates to replace Forsberg.