GDT: Free Agency: Dr Strangedubas or How We Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Nerd

[AuroraBorealis]

If the deal is Granlund, Petry, 2024 1st for Karlsson, I'm in.

I fully acknowledge that:
*it's a stupid deal
*Karlsson is atrocious defensively
*he's injury prone
*Letang/EK65 are duplicative
*Karlsson may be more of a high wire skill act than a component of a winning team

But:
*This would be fun
*100 points for a D-man. C'mon.
*Karlsson maybe has the pedigree to push Letang to PP2. If we can squeeze another 3-4% conversion rate out of PP1, this trade would be worth it.

Before that 101 point season there was 142 points in 211 games as a Shark.
That average should be the expectation moving forward. Players don't sustain these kinds of outliers often. Odds are we'd get like 45 points over 60 games from him.
And even when he put up this 101 points, he allowed the most 5v5 goals in the salary cap era. That awful defending, unfortunately, is his norm.

He'd get like 15-20 points more than Petry here probably, but at a dire cost defensively. Unloading Granlund softens that blow a little, so the deal would come out pretty close to breaking even, assuming we use that Granlund money wisely.
It also depends how much SJ is retaining.

 

[Pancakes]

It's clear from Dubas' signings that defensive ability and penalty killing were big areas of focus.

I just hope that bottom six provides enough scoring. If it doesn't, it at least needs to just be boring as f*** and let our top six do just enough damage to win games.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

And I’d argue Eller is yet another example of bad scouting and acquiring a player familiar with a coach versus actually trying to replace what you are saying logically.

Eller could be. Acciari and Nieto definitely are not.

 

[Andy99]

No, but not many teams do. And how often have the Pens really been able to do it? Part of the reason they had the youth movement in the Cup years was because they were forced to initially bring up WBS players to fill in because of injuries.

A lot of teams, most, have better offensive players in their bottom six than we do…and that’s by design…I don’t think it’s a good design, particularly as you say, we have no players in Wilkes now to help

 

[Gurglesons]

Eller could be. Acciari and Nieto definitely are not.

I'm good with Acciari because his nick name is cookie.

Nieto is Josh Archibald 2.0.

 

[Pancakes]

Ehlers is the good one. Eller is the old broken down one.

Lol I dunno why I said Ehlers. Dreaming of better days.

3 years from now it'll be Yager time*

*If Sullivan doesn't put him on the fourth line so that some 38 year old Dubas signs plays 3c instead

 

[Turin]

I really don't have a big problem with anything Dubas did today. My least favorite move is Ehlers, and I'm not a huge fan of the Jarry deal, but any other goalie we could have gotten via UFA would have been as much or more of a risk. Maybe cheaper, but that's it. At least with Jarry you know you'll probably get league average or slightly better when he's healthy.

Graves deal was good even if I didn't love what I saw of him in the playoffs. That's fine value for a 2nd pair defenseman who should be a big upgrade on Dumo.

Nieto/Acciari/Ned were all fine deals that should improve depth and didn't cost much.

So as it stands, something like this:

Guentzel-Crosby-Rakell
Smith-Malkin-Rust
DOC-Ehlers-Granlund
Nieto-Acciari-Carter

Petts-Letang
Graves-Petry
POJ-Rutta

Jarry
Ned


I'd still like to move Granlund out and hate that we're stuck with Carter, but this roster should be better than last year's. Significantly? Eh, not sure. I think maybe the answer is yes if only because Graves > Dumo by a lot. The bottom six isn't dramatically better than last year's but I think should be a fair bit better. Hopefully enough to make a difference.

If only it was Ehlers.

 

[Dennis Reynolds]

Ehlers

We got Eller.

I can see your confusion. Both E names. Both short last names. Both Danish.

Here's how you can keep them apart:

Ehlers is a great Dane.

Eller is a lower-middle-tier Dane.

 

[Jobeycool]

We got Eller.

I can see your confusion. Both E names. Both short last names. Both Danish.

Here's how you can keep them apart:

Ehlers is a great Dane.

Eller is a lower-middle-tier Dane.

Got them confused also...

 

[Pancakes]

If only it was Ehlers.

Maybe I'll commit to the bit and post Ehlers gifs whenever Eller scores this year.

So about 8 or 9 times maybe

Got them confused also...

Great minds and all that

 

[DesertedPenguin]

He didn’t have to go full on UFA market…what happened to the plan of taking advantage of cash strapped teams? Only pickup from this was Smith

Those players haven't moved. We spent eons talking about Boston and none of the targets (Grzelcyk, Frederic, etc) were dealt. Swayman, Ullmark, Gibson and Hellebyuck are all still with their original teams.

I don't see a trade out there that I wish Dubas made other than maybe Colton, and that was richer than anticipated.

 

[Andy99]

Those players haven't moved. We spent eons talking about Boston and none of the targets (Grzelcyk, Frederic, etc) were dealt. Swayman, Ullmark, Gibson and Hellebyuck are all still with their original teams.

I don't see a trade out there that I wish Dubas made other than maybe Colton, and that was richer than anticipated.

Duclair? Went for a 5th and a nobody prospect…Sharangovich? w’d certainly have gotten younger — another professed goal of his that was nowhere to be found today

also, teams may get in trouble in a few weeks and need to part with players…why blow your load today? Maybe wait it out

 

[Gurglesons]

Those players haven't moved. We spent eons talking about Boston and none of the targets (Grzelcyk, Frederic, etc) were dealt. Swayman, Ullmark, Gibson and Hellebyuck are all still with their original teams.

I don't see a trade out there that I wish Dubas made other than maybe Colton, and that was richer than anticipated.

I mean we could’ve just signed Acciari and seen what came up. It’s not like what we did is added a bunch of great pieces.

 

[Turin]

Duclair? Went for a 5th and a nobody prospect…Sharangovich? w’d certainly have gotten younger — another professed goal of his that was nowhere to be found today

also, teams may get in trouble in a few weeks and need to part with players…why blow your load today? Maybe wait it out

Duclair would need to play on the 3rd line, hefty price at 4 mill for that. Sherengovich was traded with a pick for Toffoli who given his contract status had more value than even somebody like Rust or Rakell.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

It's clear from Dubas' signings that defensive ability and penalty killing were big areas of focus.

I think that's because he's aligning with Sullivan's view of what went wrong. Sullivan thinks of defense first when assessing players and teams. So the PK'ing and ES defending would be at the forefront.
He's not gonna ask for a new PP1 player or finishers, outside of the one top 6 wing that needed replacing. He doesn't see that as a core problem that needs solving. I wonder if he even knows that they were the 31st best shooting team lol.
He wants to use the same strategy as last year...leaning on the top 6 offensively and the bottom 6 defensively for all they're worth. He's learned nothing.

 

[BusinessGoose]

I think that's because he's aligning with Sullivan's view of what went wrong. Sullivan thinks of defense first when assessing players and teams. So the PK'ing and ES defending would be at the forefront.
He's not gonna ask for a new PP1 player or finishers, outside of the one top 6 wing that needed replacing. He doesn't see that as a core problem that needs solving. I wonder if he even knows that they were the 31st best shooting team lol.
He wants to use the same strategy as last year...leaning on the top 6 offensively and the bottom 6 defensively for all they're worth. He's learned nothing.

 

[Dennis Reynolds]

 

[DesertedPenguin]

Duclair? Went for a 5th and a nobody prospect…Sharangovich? w’d certainly have gotten younger — another professed goal of his that was nowhere to be found today

also, teams may get in trouble in a few weeks and need to part with players…why blow your load today? Maybe wait it out

Duclair is top six or bust and has injury concerns. Pens didn't have the assets to acquire Sherengovich.

As far as getting younger, wait til opening night.

 

[Andy99]

Duclair would need to play on the 3rd line, hefty price at 4 mill for that. Sherengovich was traded with a pick for Toffoli who given his contract status had more value than even somebody like Rust or Rakell.

We’re paying $5M Granlund on L3 right now lol…we either need better players there who cost more, or we need a much better winger than Smith in the top six…our depth scoring and our age made us the worst finishing team in the league last season…

 

[DesertedPenguin]

I mean we could’ve just signed Acciari and seen what came up. It’s not like what we did is added a bunch of great pieces.

You were crushing Dubas for not acting all week. Now it's OK to be patient?

 

[ChaosAgent]

Before that 101 point season there was 142 points in 211 games as a Shark.
That average should be the expectation moving forward. Players don't sustain these kinds of outliers often. Odds are we'd get like 45 points over 60 games from him.
And even when he put up this 101 points, he allowed the most 5v5 goals in the salary cap era. That awful defending, unfortunately, is his norm.

He'd get like 15-20 points more than Petry here probably, but at a dire cost defensively. Unloading Granlund softens that blow a little, so the deal would come out pretty close to breaking even, assuming we use that Granlund money wisely.
It also depends how much SJ is retaining.

The desire to get Karlsson is 100% "well let's win on July 3rd since we can't actually win on the ice."
I'm indulging my worst tendencies on that front because - why not? It's such a longshot to actually win.
Karlsson will increase the fire power and entertainment value of this team if we pull this off. Even if he does not make it better.

 

[Pancakes]

I think that's because he's aligning with Sullivan's view of what went wrong. Sullivan thinks of defense first when assessing players and teams. So the PK'ing and ES defending would be at the forefront.
He's not gonna ask for a new PP1 player or finishers, outside of the one top 6 wing that needed replacing. He doesn't see that as a core problem that needs solving. I wonder if he even knows that they were the 31st best shooting team lol.
He wants to use the same strategy as last year...leaning on the top 6 offensively and the bottom 6 defensively for all they're worth. He's learned nothing.

I think the offense we have is good enough if the bottom six can avoid getting destroyed defensively this year.

That said I'd feel a lot more comfortable about that aspect of the team if Dubas can swing a big move for EK or whomever

 

[Andy99]

Duclair is top six or bust and has injury concerns. Pens didn't have the assets to acquire Sherengovich.

As far as getting younger, wait til opening night.

Probably not but there were many options available who werent qualified…all I can say is that our new acquisitions are all over 30 and I doubt,unless they’re injured, that they’ll be sitting in the press box on Oct 10

 

[Turin]

If the Pens bring in EK they probably make the playoffs in a walk based on special teams improvement alone.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

The desire to get Karlsson is 100% "well let's win on July 3rd since we can't actually win on the ice."
I'm indulging my worst tendencies on that front because - why not? It's such a longshot to actually win.
Karlsson will increase the fire power and entertainment value of this team if we pull this off. Even if he does not make it better.

I'm right there with you. We're not getting past round 2 no matter what moves were made. This team is NOT taking out Carolina or New Jersey.
May as well enjoy the ride. f*** it.