GDT: Free Agency Day 1: You're from Boston? Come on down

[TimmyD]

With the dust settled on the opening of free agency, some thoughts:

- The signings are mid. Lizotte might be the best of the three.

- The signings also don't matter. The Pens don't have surefire prospects. They need competition. If Ponomarev and Poulin, for example, take a huge leap forward, it's easy to kick Hayes to the curb or bury Beaulivier.

- I know everyone is skeptical of the above, but it's not like they're talking up Hayes a whole lot and Dubas outright said Beaulivier is here to compete and that's it.

- I think the next steps are extensions for Crosby and Pettersson. I think Pettersson will have a partial NTC for only a portion of the deal.

- I think the plan is to work with Rakell and Graves to rehab their games as much as possible. With Rakell, it comes down to health. With Graves, I'm expecting him to be on the third pair to start. No pressure. Get in a groove. See what happens.

- I think there will be at least two more trades, including for a top six wing. Robertson is absolutely one who could be in the mix.

- I think the Pens are going to utilize WBS heavily to give certain players opportunities while not caring if someone has to go through waivers.

- I think if the Pens are in contention at the deadline, they'll buy and sell at the same time.

- I think Crosby is smarter and more pragmatic than people are giving him credit. He's competitive, and he's optimistic, so he always thinks the Pens are in it. But the right pitch will have him buy in to a 2-3 year process.

To the bolded point… this won’t happen and that’s exactly why people are upset. This team won’t kick those guys to the curb or bury them. They will absolutely be regulars in the lineup. Kevin Hayes and Anthony Beauvillier will not be taken out of the starting lineup unless they miss time due to injury. They will not lose their spots if someone is outperforming them

 

[Terrapin]

Why do the Pens insist on getting smaller? The only exception among the new additions who has a bit of size just so happens to also be something we need to move away from - slow.

Like, I get size isn't everything (jokes aside), but why does this club never prioritize adding a bit of beef?

I've been saying this for years. Sullivan (and some posters here) equate size and physicality with goons. God forbid we have to kill off a PP once in a while due to a questionable hit.

But in all honesty, Sullivan is a one trick pony. He can't/won't adjust his 'system' to accomodate his roster. This is why literally every single player we've had in the last 5 years that had even a hint of tenacity, Sully has run out of town.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I'm not gonna lie, I miss big hits and scrums. I don't really care that someone tries really hard and doesn't put us in the box if they're also ineffectual and boring.

 

[SomeDude]

Petts is going to get an extension. They aren’t going to trade him

Am I taking crazy pills? Why would we extend him when he’s our best trade asset and we are starting a rebuild? It makes no sense and Dubas should know better.

 

[ThosePuckingPenguins]

Am I taking crazy pills? Why would we extend him when he’s our best trade asset and we are starting a rebuild? It makes no sense and Dubas should know better.

This is the part that surprises me too. I, like others here, have sort of accepted the reality of the situation that they’re rebuilding and it’s probably time. So if you’re going to rebuild, Pettersson is absolutely the guy you should be shopping. He’ll bring back the most in terms of assets of any non-Crosby player on the roster.

 

[Ulf5]

Colorado Avalanche Salary Cap, Draft Picks, and Player Contracts - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

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That cap hit's at 82.4M

Forwards 43.5M
Defense 26.5M
Goalies 4.2M

All that combined is only at 74.2M. I rounded up the smaller figures.
There's roughly 8.2M that's unaccounted for, and that is Landeskog + O'Connor.
Nichushkin is the one who doesn't count towards their cap right now, because he's in the player assistance program. I didn't know about that rule, but that's the only reasonable explanation mathematically.

So when Nichushkin leaves that program and rejoins them, their cap jumps to 88.9M, which is 900k over the cap. At that point they would still only have 11F, 5D, 2G.
Since you can only go 10% over in the off-season, that would put their ceiling at 96.8M while conducting any operations. That would leave them 7.9M wiggle room in the off-season to fill in the missing positions. Then they would wait for the start of the season for the relief from the 2 LTIR guys, to become cap compliant.

The real issue arises if Landeskog is good to go in October, which is what Seravelli is inferring will happen. You'd need to clear 8 mil, yet still fill the positions you just unloaded to clear that 8 mil.
And that still doesn't account for the missing positions that need filled outside of that.
So yeah, it's bad. Really bad.

Colorado Avalanche Salary Cap, Draft Picks, and Player Contracts - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Colorado Avalanche salary cap, contracts, roster, draft picks, salary, cap space, stats, salary cap projections, and daily cap tracking

www.capfriendly.com

That cap hit's at 82.4M

Forwards 43.5M
Defense 26.5M
Goalies 4.2M

All that combined is only at 74.2M. I rounded up the smaller figures.
There's roughly 8.2M that's unaccounted for, and that is Landeskog + O'Connor.
Nichushkin is the one who doesn't count towards their cap right now, because he's in the player assistance program. I didn't know about that rule, but that's the only reasonable explanation mathematically.

So when Nichushkin leaves that program and rejoins them, their cap jumps to 88.9M, which is 900k over the cap. At that point they would still only have 11F, 5D, 2G.
Since you can only go 10% over in the off-season, that would put their ceiling at 96.8M while conducting any operations. That would leave them 7.9M wiggle room in the off-season to fill in the missing positions. Then they would wait for the start of the season for the relief from the 2 LTIR guys, to become cap compliant.

The real issue arises if Landeskog is good to go in October, which is what Seravelli is inferring will happen. You'd need to clear 8 mil, yet still fill the positions you just unloaded to clear that 8 mil.
And that still doesn't account for the missing positions that need filled outside of that.
So yeah, it's bad. Really bad.

Found this posted on another message forum. Can't vouch for it's veracity.

As per Pierre LeBrun of the Athletic, “Nichushkin is wrapping up the second season of an eight-year, $49 million contract. In case people are wondering, a league source said what has transpired here does not constitute grounds for the Avalanche to consider a contract termination. A league source also confirmed that Nichushkin will not count on the Avalanche’s salary cap while he’s suspended over the next six months. But if he’s cleared from Stage 3 in six months, his contract goes back on the cap. That could be around November.”

 

[eXile3]

watching his press conference. There’s something about Dubas that really irritates me. I think it’s his know it all attitude. Outside his hockey moves the guy gets under my skin. All presentation, no substance.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Am I taking crazy pills? Why would we extend him when he’s our best trade asset and we are starting a rebuild? It makes no sense and Dubas should know better.

Because the front office doesn't seem to know if we're rebuilding or competing. That's what we've all been getting at. Some of the moves they are talking about making are perfect for a rebuild. But others, like MP... not so much.

Now maybe Dubas wants to avoid trading MP without an extension in place like what happened with Jake, but I remain very skeptical that this will happen. Had it not been for Jake's camp insisting on testing the market, likely we'd be talking about a Jake extension here.

 

[ThosePuckingPenguins]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1808107066315198745

 

[The Great Mighty Poo]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1808107066315198745

(If the fat man is right a 3rd time)

 

[Ulf5]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1808107066315198745

Get younger than who kyle? D-Day vets?

 

[Malkinstheman]

Am I taking crazy pills? Why would we extend him when he’s our best trade asset and we are starting a rebuild? It makes no sense and Dubas should know better.

Its not like signing Pettersson makes him immediately valueless. He probably gets signed for 6 years and then traded in 4-5 years once Sid is gone. They cant/wont strip the team completely down until the core is gone.

 

[Pens x]

The man with no plan, Kyle Dubas.

 

[SomeDude]

Its not like signing Pettersson makes him immediately valueless. He probably gets signed for 6 years and then traded in 4-5 years once Sid is gone. They cant/wont strip the team completely down until the core is gone.

That’s not how a rebuild works. We’re already selling pieces. In no universe does keeping Petts make any sense.

 

[Malkinstheman]

That’s not how a rebuild works. We’re already selling pieces. In no universe does keeping Petts make any sense.

What does that even mean? Are there some universal rules that indicate you sell off everything the moment you enter a rebuild?

 

[SomeDude]

Because the front office doesn't seem to know if we're rebuilding or competing. That's what we've all been getting at. Some of the moves they are talking about making are perfect for a rebuild. But others, like MP... not so much.

Now maybe Dubas wants to avoid trading MP without an extension in place like what happened with Jake, but I remain very skeptical that this will happen. Had it not been for Jake's camp insisting on testing the market, likely we'd be talking about a Jake extension here.

Based on Dubas’ comments, the rebuild is on.

Jake was never staying here. Dubas had no real contract talks with him. That’s why Jake got all sad and Reilly Smith-y at the end. Had the team overachieved last year and been comfortably in a playoff spot, maybe at that point it would have been revisited.

What does that even mean? Are there some universal rules that indicate you sell off everything the moment you enter a rebuild?

Extending your most valuable trade asset to maybe trade him him 5 years when you’re already selling pieces is not a thing that happens. Petts isn’t some 23 year old who may still be around when the team turns the corner again.

 

[OnMyOwn]

Get younger than who kyle? D-Day vets?

Vlad for 1 year to push someone down to help the bottom 6 isn’t a bad move. Vlad for 3 years would be. You can also flip him for assets at the deadline if we’re out of it.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

What a fall from grace for Tarasenko. Dude used to be so gross.

 

[SomeDude]

Tarasenko is not signing here unless we somehow give him a ton of money. Dude just won another Cup. Theres going to be other suitors and I doubt he wants to slum it up here.

Dubas may have made a 1 year offer to add another flippable asset at the deadline, but I can’t see us being the best or most attractive option for him.

Sounds more like Yohe getting some crumbs to throw out there to make it seem like we’re trying to do more to appease the Facebook commenters.

 

[OnMyOwn]

I feel like a lot of the big clubs spent tons of money yesterday and it wasn’t on him. He likely doesn’t have huge offers.

Riding with Sid until the deadline and maybe touching 30 goals again isn’t a bad option for him, tbh.

 

[Sideline]

Tarasenko is not signing here unless we somehow give him a ton of money. Dude just won another Cup. Theres going to be other suitors and I doubt he wants to slum it up here.

Dubas may have made a 1 year offer to add another flippable asset at the deadline, but I can’t see us being the best or most attractive option for him.

Sounds more like Yohe getting some crumbs to throw out there to make it seem like we’re trying to do more to appease the Facebook commenters.

He signed with a trash Ottawa team last year with the understanding they would put him on a playoff team at the deadline. I'm not getting my hopes up, but it isn't crazy to think he'd be up for a similar deal this time.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Tarasenko is gonna want full NMC. At 50% retained last year he netted a 3rd and 4th.

Not bad to add a guy like him but wouldn’t expect 1st + unless he really lights it up.

 

[SomeDude]

I feel like a lot of the big clubs spent tons of money yesterday and it wasn’t on him. He likely doesn’t have huge offers.

Riding with Sid until the deadline and maybe touching 30 goals again isn’t a bad option for him, tbh.

He’s a RW, he’s not getting with Sid over Rust. I can’t imagine playing with modern day Geno is much of a draw.

 

[OnMyOwn]

They could run

DOC-Sid-Tarasenko
Bunting-Malkin-Rust

It would be worth trying in camp, anyway. Bunting has hustle and really helped Geno last year, so even if vlad wound up with Geno I don’t think it would be that awful.

Just stick to 1 year deals so we can get assets if we’re awful. Either way.

 

[PenguinSuitedUp]

Get younger than who kyle? D-Day vets?

He did sign a 26, 27, and 30 year old yesterday. All of whom brought the average age of the team down. I don’t see the harm in signing a winger who can put up Tarasenko’s productivity on a short term deal.