GDT: Free Agency Day 1: You're from Boston? Come on down

[DesertedPenguin]

With the dust settled on the opening of free agency, some thoughts:

- The signings are mid. Lizotte might be the best of the three.

- The signings also don't matter. The Pens don't have surefire prospects. They need competition. If Ponomarev and Poulin, for example, take a huge leap forward, it's easy to kick Hayes to the curb or bury Beaulivier.

- I know everyone is skeptical of the above, but it's not like they're talking up Hayes a whole lot and Dubas outright said Beaulivier is here to compete and that's it.

- I think the next steps are extensions for Crosby and Pettersson. I think Pettersson will have a partial NTC for only a portion of the deal.

- I think the plan is to work with Rakell and Graves to rehab their games as much as possible. With Rakell, it comes down to health. With Graves, I'm expecting him to be on the third pair to start. No pressure. Get in a groove. See what happens.

- I think there will be at least two more trades, including for a top six wing. Robertson is absolutely one who could be in the mix.

- I think the Pens are going to utilize WBS heavily to give certain players opportunities while not caring if someone has to go through waivers.

- I think if the Pens are in contention at the deadline, they'll buy and sell at the same time.

- I think Crosby is smarter and more pragmatic than people are giving him credit. He's competitive, and he's optimistic, so he always thinks the Pens are in it. But the right pitch will have him buy in to a 2-3 year process.

 

[Bishop7979]

With samsonov signed Vegas is something like 3.3 over the cap, I wonder if there is something that the pens can work out there,

William karlsson is their 3rd line center and Roy is centering their 4th.

Take Roy for a sweetener?

Or offer eller for William karlsson? That gets them cap compliant, they can move Roy to the 3rd line, put eller on the 4th and still have pretty killer center depth and we can move malkin to wing with karlsson at center on our second line.

Rak/doc sid rust
Bunting karlsson Geno
Beau Hayes doc/rak
Puusy/poulin lizotte acari

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Why do the Pens insist on getting smaller? The only exception among the new additions who has a bit of size just so happens to also be something we need to move away from - slow.

Like, I get size isn't everything (jokes aside), but why does this club never prioritize adding a bit of beef?

 

[Gurglesons]

With samsonov signed Vegas is something like 3.3 over the cap, I wonder if there is something that the pens can work out there,

William karlsson is their 3rd line center and Roy is centering their 4th.

Take Roy for a sweetener?

Or offer eller for William karlsson? That gets them cap compliant, they can move Roy to the 3rd line, put eller on the 4th and still have pretty killer center depth and we can move malkin to wing with karlsson at center on our second line.

Rak/doc sid rust
Bunting karlsson Geno
Beau Hayes doc/rak
Puusy/poulin lizotte acari

They put Lehner on LTIR and are fine.

Why do the Pens insist on getting smaller? The only exception among the new additions who has a bit of size just so happens to also be something we need to move away from - slow.

Like, I get size isn't everything (jokes aside), but why does this club never prioritize adding a bit of beef?

It’s especially frustrating because those types of players usually return more than Beauvillier types at the deadline because playoffs.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

It’s especially frustrating because those types of players usually return more than Beauvillier types at the deadline because playoffs.

I get that the reality is we're not an actual Cup contender any longer, but this club still presents itself as one whenever talking about "liking our team". Okay, so why do they continue to ignore the trends of recent Cup winners/teams that go deep? One of the biggest things most of the recent finalists/final four teams have is quite a bit of size and/or physicality.

The Pens are so frigging stubborn that not only do they think Mike Sullivan is still a good coach like it's 2016, they also think building a roster the exact same way (ie. small-ish, speedy guys) still works and ignores the Cup champs since those back to back winners.

It's why this team is so hard to keep watching. They're building a roster that's the complete opposite of any type of team I enjoy watching. Speed? Nah. Really skilled? Nah. Physically punishing? Nah. We're the most vanilla, "average" roster you can possibly be.

 

[Gurglesons]

I get that the reality is we're not an actual Cup contender any longer, but this club still presents itself as one whenever talking about "liking our team". Okay, so why do they continue to ignore the trends of recent Cup winners/teams that go deep? One of the biggest things most of the recent finalists/final four teams have is quite a bit of size and/or physicality.

The Pens are so frigging stubborn that not only do they think Mike Sullivan is still a good coach like it's 2016, they also think building a roster the exact same way (ie. small-ish, speedy guys) still works and ignores the Cup champs since those back to back winners.

It's why this team is so hard to keep watching. They're building a roster that's the complete opposite of any type of team I enjoy watching. Speed? Nah. Really skilled? Nah. Physically punishing? Nah. We're the most vanilla, "average" roster you can possibly be.

The 09 Red Wings without the balls and efficiency.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Bunch of people outplaying their contracts or having career years.
Nyquist 75 points outta nowhere didn't hurt.
McDonagh was still great. Josi 85 points. Forsberg 94. O'Reilly 69.
Random performances like Jankowski being .5 PPG.
Defensively 14th. Underrated blue line. Goalies weren't a problem. PP 16th.

More than anything Brunette should get massive credit.

Nyquist has had a run of injuries that always seemed to derail him, he always seemed capable of production like that, but at 34 that's pretty crazy to get that out of him and even ROR getting close to 70pts this past season. Brunette was the reason the Devils did as well as they did and when he left, Ruff completely lot the plot and to make it funnier, Buffalo hired him back as a solution to getting better, lol.

In any case, Brunette seems to get the most out of his forwards and if you see that as a scoring forward that wants to be part of a team that will use you for your skillset, you're happy to be there.

Under Brunette - Duclair 31 goals and almost 60pts, Bennett had his best offensive output, Marchment blossomed as a forward, Verhaeghe blossomed into a legit threat, Barkov had his best goal scoring year, Reinhart cracked 30 for the first time, and Ekblad almost put up 60pts. I mean hell, if I am Sprong I am begging my agent to call Trotz, same for Puustinen to get the f*** out and go there.

Preds also have a fantastic coach in the AHL, Karl Taylor, he's going to get a head coach job sometime I feel, he has to with the work he's done in Milwaukee.

 

[HandshakeLine]

https://thehockeynews.com/news/nhl-free-agency-grading-10-teams-for-their-off-season-actions-or-lack-thereof

D-

But it was what we needed.

And people thought I was being harsh with the grades.

 

[Jobeycool]

The bottom line is we can only retain on one. So in an instance where we are selling, that is a constraint we must bear in mind. The players whose value we would want to maximize at the deadline would be Petts and Jarry (if he has played well, just cut the cord). If it's 20 minutes before the deadline and the only guy Dubas is likely to move is Gryz, then sure retain away. But otherwise I would sacrifice getting a 3rd for Gryz if we got a 1st for Petts.

Then in the off-season, the spots open up presumably to be used on Karlsson, Rust and Jarry.

I believe the sad part about this is they kept Jarry and he lose value and be the same goalie again... decent but struggles at times...

 

[Honour Over Glory]

And people thought I was being harsh with the grades.

Pens grade for their draft isn't much better, not just dropping L's during the season, these wankers.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Nyquist has had a run of injuries that always seemed to derail him, he always seemed capable of production like that, but at 34 that's pretty crazy to get that out of him and even ROR getting close to 70pts this past season. Brunette was the reason the Devils did as well as they did and when he left, Ruff completely lot the plot and to make it funnier, Buffalo hired him back as a solution to getting better, lol.

In any case, Brunette seems to get the most out of his forwards and if you see that as a scoring forward that wants to be part of a team that will use you for your skillset, you're happy to be there.

Under Brunette - Duclair 31 goals and almost 60pts, Bennett had his best offensive output, Marchment blossomed as a forward, Verhaeghe blossomed into a legit threat, Barkov had his best goal scoring year, Reinhart cracked 30 for the first time, and Ekblad almost put up 60pts. I mean hell, if I am Sprong I am begging my agent to call Trotz, same for Puustinen to get the f*** out and go there.

Preds also have a fantastic coach in the AHL, Karl Taylor, he's going to get a head coach job sometime I feel, he has to with the work he's done in Milwaukee.

Yeah, Brunette shoulda won the Jack Adams. He did the most relative to his conditions. People had Nashville as a lock to be irrelevant and probably a bottom feeder. Everyone was questioning their direction and roster, asking why they're acquiring O'Reilly and shit.
But they squeezed out 99 points in arguably the deepest division.
Tocchet did a fantastic job, but he also had way more to work with.

Best way to put it is, "is any other coach that year getting Nashville to the dance?" Idk that there was. Dude didn't even get star goaltending from Saros. He was slightly below average.
Whereas with the Canucks the playoffs were fairly realistic, given their depth, and they were just performing below expectations.

 

[Gurglesons]

Yeah, Brunette shoulda won the Jack Adams. He did the most relative to his conditions. People had Nashville as a lock to be irrelevant and probably a bottom feeder. Everyone was questioning their direction and roster, asking why they're acquiring O'Reilly and shit.
But they squeezed out 99 points in arguably the deepest division.
Tocchet did a fantastic job, but he also had way more to work with.

Best way to put it is, "is any other coach that year getting Nashville to the dance?" Idk that there was. Dude didn't even get star goaltending from Saros. He was slightly below average.
Whereas with the Canucks the playoffs were fairly realistic, given their depth, and they were just performing below expectations.

Agreed. No reason Rick should have gotten the award over Brunette. But Canadian market.

 

[Kristopher Letang]

Just catching up… These signings are so ass nobody bothered to open individual threads lol

What am I supposed to bump when these bums go 50 games without a goal?

s/o to y’all

 

[Turin]

Bunch of people outplaying their contracts or having career years.
Nyquist 75 points outta nowhere didn't hurt.
McDonagh was still great. Josi 85 points. Forsberg 94. O'Reilly 69.
Random performances like Jankowski being .5 PPG.
Defensively 14th. Underrated blue line. Goalies weren't a problem. PP 16th.

More than anything Brunette should get massive credit.

Jankowski is what really stood out to me. Like WTF that guy was cooked years ago.

Now they replace McDonach with Skej which I think is mostly a wash if not a slight downgrade in the present, and Stamkos, Marchessault, ROR and Nyquist could all take very real steps back at their age. Idk man. I guess they do still have some flexibility to add later but the fwds kinda stink.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Jankowski is what really stood out to me. Like WTF that guy was cooked years ago.

Now they replace McDonach with Skej which I think is mostly a wash if not a slight downgrade in the present, and Stamkos, Marchessault, ROR and Nyquist could all take very real steps back at their age. Idk man. I guess they do still have some flexibility to add later but the fwds kinda stink.

This paints a clearer picture. Over 2.00 is really strong in this stat. 1.75 is like average top-six level caliber output.
Look at the nobodies chipping in. It's very unlikely they do this again.

I can see them making the playoffs again if Saros returns to superstar level though. That could be a significant improvement.
They have a great regular season coach.
4th place in the Central is very realistic, with these additions mitigating the drop-offs. I don't think we should expect STL, CHI, MIN or Utah to pass them.
So then if that's true, 5 in the Pacific would have to qualify for them to miss.
VAN, EDM, VGK, LAK and...who? Seattle? Possibly. It's not gonna be Calgary, San Jose or Anaheim.

Yeah right now I say playoffs again. Minnesota is so boned. 14.7M in dead cap. Don't see them overcoming Nashville like this.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I wouldn't mind signing Atkinson and Tatar to cheap one year deals. Both are capable of 40-50 points if everything goes well for them.

Agreed on Tatar. That's no-risk, high reward potential. He's really good defensively, even if he's not scoring.
Don't care if he's older. Bemstrom is not better than him just because he's 25.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Just catching up… These signings are so ass nobody bothered to open individual threads lol

What am I supposed to bump when these bums go 50 games without a goal?

s/o to y’all

We've suffered enough, mate.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Are you sure? I thought if they stayed on through the RS and playoffs that it carried over? He hasn't been "taken off LTIR".

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That cap hit's at 82.4M

Forwards 43.5M
Defense 26.5M
Goalies 4.2M

All that combined is only at 74.2M. I rounded up the smaller figures.
There's roughly 8.2M that's unaccounted for, and that is Landeskog + O'Connor.
Nichushkin is the one who doesn't count towards their cap right now, because he's in the player assistance program. I didn't know about that rule, but that's the only reasonable explanation mathematically.

So when Nichushkin leaves that program and rejoins them, their cap jumps to 88.9M, which is 900k over the cap. At that point they would still only have 11F, 5D, 2G.
Since you can only go 10% over in the off-season, that would put their ceiling at 96.8M while conducting any operations. That would leave them 7.9M wiggle room in the off-season to fill in the missing positions. Then they would wait for the start of the season for the relief from the 2 LTIR guys, to become cap compliant.

The real issue arises if Landeskog is good to go in October, which is what Seravelli is inferring will happen. You'd need to clear 8 mil, yet still fill the positions you just unloaded to clear that 8 mil.
And that still doesn't account for the missing positions that need filled outside of that.
So yeah, it's bad. Really bad.

 

[Pancakes]

With the dust settled on the opening of free agency, some thoughts:

- The signings are mid. Lizotte might be the best of the three.

Agreed. A whole lot of nothing. I think the bottom six *should* be better than it was last year, but I'm not sure that it will be enough better to matter.

- The signings also don't matter. The Pens don't have surefire prospects. They need competition. If Ponomarev and Poulin, for example, take a huge leap forward, it's easy to kick Hayes to the curb or bury Beaulivier.

Yes I agree. I also think that if any of the prospects do take big steps that the Pens will find room for them. People are always petrified of [insert player here] blocking an up and coming prospect but the truth is the guys that are worth actually making room for will have room made for them. When Jake was tearing it up in WBS the Pens immediately found room for him in the top six in the NHL. If Ponomarev or Poulin is forcing their way onto the team the team will make room for them.

If they're not forcing their way onto the team then who really gives a shit if Kevin Hayes is blocking them? They're not ready/worth much to think about if they can't earn their way past him.

- I think the next steps are extensions for Crosby and Pettersson. I think Pettersson will have a partial NTC for only a portion of the deal.

There's absolutely no reason to extend Pettersson. There would be if the team was actually trying to contend, but they aren't. He 100% should be dealt for futures at the deadline unless they're having a wildly good year and maybe even then.

Crosby obviously is gonna get re-signed if he at all wants to. And he's earned that right.

- I think the plan is to work with Rakell and Graves to rehab their games as much as possible. With Rakell, it comes down to health. With Graves, I'm expecting him to be on the third pair to start. No pressure. Get in a groove. See what happens.

- I think there will be at least two more trades, including for a top six wing. Robertson is absolutely one who could be in the mix.

I don't really agree that it just comes down to health with Rakell. He actually has to play better too. He was garbage last year. They need him to be much better. I don't know why people give Rakell a free pass when the same people were ripping Rust a new one when he had a similarly mid year the year before.

As far as trades go....I'm not sure. To do what you're suggesting they'd have to clear some more cap space, and we're running out of obvious candidates for that unless they opt to move on from Jarry or do something unexpected like move Rakell.

- I think the Pens are going to utilize WBS heavily to give certain players opportunities while not caring if someone has to go through waivers.

Probably true.

- I think if the Pens are in contention at the deadline, they'll buy and sell at the same time.

That would probably be the smart thing to do. I would strongly consider selling MP even if they are in contention at the deadline. I just don't think it's wise to keep him long term when they could get valuable rebuilding assets for him. The Pens would have to be uncommonly good for me to want to keep him at the deadline. Like competing for the division good. And that seems highly unlikely lol.

- I think Crosby is smarter and more pragmatic than people are giving him credit. He's competitive, and he's optimistic, so he always thinks the Pens are in it. But the right pitch will have him buy in to a 2-3 year process.

I'm sure he's aware of the situation. He probably thinks there's enough left on the roster to at least make a run at a playoff spot. And once you get into the playoffs I am sure that he believes anything can happen. Players don't have the same pessimistic view we have about low seeds winning cups. A guy like Crosby will 100% think he can win the cup if he gets into the playoffs, even if it's only barely. I mean Rust legit thought they could have beaten the Rangers. We laughed at him, but that belief is there for the players.

 

[Zbynek]

Why do the Pens insist on getting smaller? The only exception among the new additions who has a bit of size just so happens to also be something we need to move away from - slow.

Like, I get size isn't everything (jokes aside), but why does this club never prioritize adding a bit of beef?

Also hilarious is how we added Hayes, a big guy known for not using his size. This UFA deadline was just so flaccid, small and weak.

It's crazy to me how in August 2023 we traded a 1st+2nd for the defending Norris winner, and despite the disappointing end to the season, we still got a respectable showing out of the 4 HOF guys. Months later we're already throwing in the towel.

If yinz want to cope and say "Well it was going to happen sooner or later", fine, but I see no reason why we couldn't have just tried for another year or 2 while Sid is still playing over ppg.

 

[HandshakeLine]

If yinz want to cope and say "Well it was going to happen sooner or later", fine, but I see no reason why we couldn't have just tried for another year or 2 while Sid is still playing over ppg.

I think the problem is, the organization seriously thinks they are trying. This is just their idea of competing, and that's the madness-inducing part.

 

[spcastlemagic]

Can’t help but point out Sid hasn’t signed that extension yet

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Wish we would just pick a direction. This soft rebuild thing doesn't make anyone happy.

 

[Headshot77]

I've already mentioned Robertson's name a bunch of times, but another aspect that I think makes it worthwhile to mention him: the Leafs have literally no cap space at this point after all of the free agent signings they've made so far, to the point where I don't think they can afford to re-sign Robertson.

I'd honestly throw an offersheet at Robertson, something like 1 year at $2.2 million. That compensation is only a 3rd round pick, which the Penguins have and can do, and I bet you can trade Robertson for more down the line than just that 3rd rounder.

I'd do this purely to see how salty Leafs fans get

 

[TimmyD]

One thing to keep in mind is that we only have 1 more retainment slot left now after Petry and Smith. Any other deadline sales will have to be filtered through a 3rd team as now a days hardly anyone has the cap space to trade for a rental that isn't retained. Will likely need to retain on Eller and Pettersson at a minimum.

Petts is going to get an extension. They aren’t going to trade him