Free Agency and Trade Thread: Off-season alive and well ... for some!

[Boutette]

If what you're saying is true about Johnsson then shouldn't he have been in the NHL a long time ago?

What did you see in him that I missed in his short time as a leaf (regular season and playoffs)?

He PKs as well as Komarov and is much more dynamic on the powerplay. He essentially stole the job of a NHL vet who started the season on our second line. Why wasn't he in the NHL earlier? Well, he had undiagnosed asthma, which is how we snagged him in the 7th round. He was contracted in Sweden and wasn't a first round draft pick so he was stuck there until his contract ran its course. We already had a team made up of almost 50% rookies in 2016-2017 so that held him back (unlike say when Bozak was a Marlie, for example). And this year we added Marleau on the left wing and Babcock is very reluctant to give up on his favorite GUD PROS, as we all know, yet he still put Komarov on the bench against the Bruins in th eplayoffs in favor of Johnsson. Why do you think he did that? Why would Babcock dump one of his favorites in favor of this kid? And now he's gone from that NHL experience to totally dominating the best the AHL can put against him.

 

[showtime8]

These are both profoundly stupid reactions that totally ignore the context I brought up. Congratulation!

What was the original context that this was brought up then?

 

[Liminality]

He PKs as well as Komarov and is much more dynamic on the powerplay. He essentially stole the job of a NHL vet who started the season on our second line. Why wasn't he in the NHL earlier? Well, he had undiagnosed asthma, which is how we snagged him in the 7th round. He was contracted in Sweden and wasn't a first round draft pick so he was stuck there until his contract ran its course. We already had a team made up of almost 50% rookies in 2016-2017 so that held him back (unlike say when Bozak was a Marlie, for example). And this year we added Marleau on the left wing and Babcock is very reluctant to give up on his favorite GUD PROS, as we all know, yet he still put Komarov on the bench against the Bruins in th eplayoffs in favor of Johnsson. Why do you think he did that? Why would Babcock dump one of his favorites in favor of this kid? And now he's gone from that NHL experience to totally dominating the best the AHL can put against him.

I think Johnsson is going to get a show me what you can do contract. He's got no leverage on his side to get a Brown or Hyman size contract when he hasn't produced at the NHL level yet imo. Maybe they bet on him and give him a longer term contract with higher pay but I'm not sure that's going to happen.

 

[Menzinger]

Nobody is arguing that Johnsson is a bad player, or cant even be a good impact player for the Leafs.

It’s whether or not it’s a smart idea to give them a long contract. And there’s no incentive to the best thing about a player like this is you keep them around while he’s cheap. Not every player needs to be locked up long-term.

Get him on a cheap one or two year deal now and then the leaves could still get him on a cheap multi year deal after that. Unless he puts up 50 or 60 points which seems unlikely he’s never going to be an expensive player.

 

[Americanadian]

Your now warming to 3 years. Your getting there.

The difference between Hyman and Johnsson? Let's see. Hyman is a year older. He managed a decent if unspectacular first year in the AHL, and produces a majorly underwhelming first year in the NHL in a role he was handed on a silver platter by his coach (which almost everyone complained about, you know the whole 'Babcock's son thing) and granted a contract which most people considered an overpayment. Frankly, guys who produce 28 points while playing on a teams 1st line aren't the ones realistically looking to score ++++++ as a UFA, are they, so buying up a couple of UFA years really wasn't that much of a big deal (considering many people on this site think he's a bottom sixer at best).

Johnsson, on the other had been totally dominating the AHL in his second season and was finally called up after Matthews was injured and continued playing once Komarov was injured. He was handed *nothing*, instead *earning* Komarov's spot by outperforming one of Babcock's favorite GUD PROS in the *playoffs*. Returning for the Calder cup playoffs, he's dominating the *best players in the AHL* and is poised to lead the Marlies to the Calder Cup championship.

Your right, there is a massive difference between Hyman and Johnsson. But its actually the other way around to what you are thinking, and his upcoming contract should reflect that, because leading your team to the Calder Cup championship while scoring almost 2PPG in the playoffs as an AHL sophomore is a very interesting counterpart to managing just 28 points playing alongside what many consider a generational talent and the best Center the Leafs have had since Sundin. Its certainly worthy of conversation, not pedantic mockery. Is Hyman a leader? Is Johnsson?

But sure, I could live with Johnsson getting $2.25x3. Arbitration settlements create uncertainty however, as you well know, and bad feelings. In fact, given how unhappy Athenasiou has been with Detroit, he might be a target for the Leafs this offseason for exactly that reason.

How much was Connor Carrick worth after his 2016 Calder Cup performance?

 

[showtime8]

Here's my overall thinking on the Johnsson situation:

1. Don't pay until you have to - Johnsson doesn't have any leverage on his side and the Leafs have a ton of depth coming through the system. I think it's a win-win situation for the Leafs. They don't have to pay him a contract where you're guessing where he's going to be. And if he actually plays very well and earns the spot on the team, then you can willingly pay for performance because you know the production is there.

2. Depth variables - Lets say that there's a situation where Johnsson actually forces the Leafs to make a big decision. Whether he asks for a trade or demands a contract that the Leafs aren't willing to give up. There's always going to be someone else behind him. It could be a guy like Pierre Engvall, Yegor Korshkov, Mason Marchment, Dakota Joshua, Nikolai Chebykin, Carl Grundstrom, Dymtro Timashov or Vladislav Kara or it could be any one of the 2018 draft picks. I'm just throwing out random names and don't know if any of them will pan out. But what I'm trying to say is that the Leafs won't be handcuffed to give out a huge contract for him.

I'm all for rewarding your own draft picks. I think that's very important to show kids drafted within the organization that if you follow the process and develop with the Marlies, then there will be a spot there if you win it. That's not to say that it will be just handed to you. I think Johnsson has definitely worked for his spot and should have the inside track for a spot on the opening day line-up next year. But continue him on the 1 year deal and see where you're at next off-season.

 

[Kiwi]

Well that came completely out of left field.

Say What?

Bringing up arbitration next season as a reason Johnsson won't be forced/coerced into taking a 2 year bridge is wrong, he'd need the arbitration this season to stop that

I was trying to explain that to you

 

[Boutette]

How much was Connor Carrick worth after his 2016 Calder Cup performance?

Was Carrick's performance a progression or an anomaly? Looking at his stats that year, it would appear to have be the latter, as his actual numbers overall didn't improve noticeably between that season and the previous one (46pts/83 games vs 47pts/73 games). 1 more point, 10 fewer games. Does Johnsson's progression look exactly the same to you? (53pts/86 games vs 67pts/63 games (so far). 14 more points. *23 fewer games*. If so, you need a new prescription.

 

[Boutette]

Here's my overall thinking on the Johnsson situation:

1. Don't pay until you have to - Johnsson doesn't have any leverage on his side and the Leafs have a ton of depth coming through the system. I think it's a win-win situation for the Leafs. They don't have to pay him a contract where you're guessing where he's going to be. And if he actually plays very well and earns the spot on the team, then you can willingly pay for performance because you know the production is there.

2. Depth variables - Lets say that there's a situation where Johnsson actually forces the Leafs to make a big decision. Whether he asks for a trade or demands a contract that the Leafs aren't willing to give up. There's always going to be someone else behind him. It could be a guy like Pierre Engvall, Yegor Korshkov, Mason Marchment, Dakota Joshua, Nikolai Chebykin, Carl Grundstrom, Dymtro Timashov or Vladislav Kara or it could be any one of the 2018 draft picks. I'm just throwing out random names and don't know if any of them will pan out. But what I'm trying to say is that the Leafs won't be handcuffed to give out a huge contract for him.

I'm all for rewarding your own draft picks. I think that's very important to show kids drafted within the organization that if you follow the process and develop with the Marlies, then there will be a spot there if you win it. That's not to say that it will be just handed to you. I think Johnsson has definitely worked for his spot and should have the inside track for a spot on the opening day line-up next year. But continue him on the 1 year deal and see where you're at next off-season.

But as everyone says, we have loads of CAP right now, enough to vastly overpay any UFA that we want for the next year or two, and will not have that luxury in the future. Is context not worth bearing in mind? Why is it okay to hugely overpay a guy like Marleau, Thorton or Spezza or Kovalchuck for what they will bring for a year or two, and wrong to add a million to a guy like Jonsson's contract if it will get you a low $2.5 for 4 years that you can buy out down to a pittance if he doesn't perform or make a great trade if he does when the CAP tightens and there are better players behind him? Does context never matter?

 

[al secord]

So? Matthews was signed to the maximum contract and bonuses he could possibly earn before he played a single game in the NHL. So have many NCAA players who never played an NHL game. Russians who've primarily played against AHL castoffs have been paid $4 million day one. What did they prove in the NHL that Johnsson hasn't? I'm not saying the leafs *will do* what I suggest, I'm stating that there are benefits to what I suggest, and pointing out that many say the team has the money to wildly overpay UFAs in bidding wars by paying our RFAs the minimum possible, and based on team history with engaging in UFA bidding wars, that might not be the best idea going forward. I have pointed out there are risks and benefits, but if the team is to get out from under its bad history of choosing to heavily overpay and favor aging and declining vets over their promising young players, it's worth considering.

You seem to be comparing apples to monkey wrenches in your arguments.

 

[showtime8]

But as everyone says, we have loads of CAP right now, enough to vastly overpay any UFA that we want for the next year or two, and will not have that luxury in the future. Is context not worth bearing in mind? Why is it okay to hugely overpay a guy like Marleau, Thorton or Spezza or Kovalchuck for what they will bring for a year or two, and wrong to add a million to a guy like Jonsson's contract if it will get you a low $2.5 for 4 years that you can buy out down to a pittance if he doesn't perform or make a great trade if he does when the CAP tightens and there are better players behind him? Does context never matter?

Context definitely matters.

There's 2 completely different scenarios happening here with the players that you mentioned. And for that matter, you could have mentioned any other UFA or player on the block.

While a player is a UFA - you can have up to 31 teams bidding for his services. That matters when it comes to dealing with an RFA & UFA. It's not like there's going to be 30 teams in the league looking to put an offer sheet on Johnsson this off-season.

And there's 2 thoughts in my mind when to overpay.
1. Timing - Both the length of the contract and who becomes available plays a large part in this. Marleau became available at a perfect time in the development of this team. And the timing of when all of the core is in their ELC's or 1st years of their long deals.

2. Does that player bring something that your team lacks & how easy would it be to replace the guy -
Marleau was a different type of winger than what the Leafs had in their line-up. The 200ft player that can skate and score 27 for you isn't common. Contrary to a guy like Connor Brown, and I love Connor Brown as a player, but which one would it be easier to replace?

 

[OVO16]

You'd need a big "plus" on top of Brown to land Trouba. Identifying what the plus would actually be would be the key element in determining whether this proposal is feasible (or even remotely possible).

Brown + Liljegren for Trouba?

 

[Boutette]

Context definitely matters.

There's 2 completely different scenarios happening here with the players that you mentioned. And for that matter, you could have mentioned any other UFA or player on the block.

While a player is a UFA - you can have up to 31 teams bidding for his services. That matters when it comes to dealing with an RFA & UFA. It's not like there's going to be 30 teams in the league looking to put an offer sheet on Johnsson this off-season.

And there's 2 thoughts in my mind when to overpay.
1. Timing - Both the length of the contract and who becomes available plays a large part in this. Marleau became available at a perfect time in the development of this team. And the timing of when all of the core is in their ELC's or 1st years of their long deals.

2. Does that player bring something that your team lacks & how easy would it be to replace the guy -
Marleau was a different type of winger than what the Leafs had in their line-up. The 200ft player that can skate and score 27 for you isn't common. Contrary to a guy like Connor Brown, and I love Connor Brown as a player, but which one would it be easier to replace?

Which one would be easier to replace? Depends. Which one will cost you $6.5 million a year minimum for 3 years in a because that's what you have to pay a future hall of famer who scores 40+ points as a UFA these days in a bidding war? Could Conor Brown have managed to rack up 40+ points with Kadri and Marner on his line instead of having to perform all the defense on his line while JvR and Bozak got to play ticky-tack. Probably. Is Marleau's value as a mentor worth $2 million a year. Possibly. Do the leafs need him as a mentor when the kids are entering their 4th years in the league and still need to improve their defense and will really need that extra $6.5 million to do so? Probably not.

 

[Fogelhund]

We promote our Cap Expert to AGM. We hire another Cap expert to another AGM spot. But somehow, these great numbers guys, who understand the value of the cap, and players, are somehow going to give a guy, with NINE games NHL experience, who has ZERO bargaining chips as a RFA (except going to back to Europe), materially more than a mil???? SMH, this type of comedy you normally have to pay big $ for.

 

[Americanadian]

Was Carrick's performance a progression or an anomaly? Looking at his stats that year, it would appear to have be the latter, as his actual numbers overall didn't improve noticeably between that season and the previous one (46pts/83 games vs 47pts/73 games). 1 more point, 10 fewer games. Does Johnsson's progression look exactly the same to you? (53pts/86 games vs 67pts/63 games (so far). 14 more points. *23 fewer games*. If so, you need a new prescription.

What are these numbers? He went from 26 in 47 to 21 in 20 at a younger age than Johnsson as a defenseman. You’re not the only one with internet, everyone can see AHL numbers.

 

[Kiwi]

Since the Panthers are a budget team I've had an idea but I'm not sure if it's been raised on here already

We trade for Pysyk and take McGinn's 3.3M for 1 more year to keep the cost of acquisition down, it gets rid of salary for them and gets a RD for us and also a depth guy we can play on the 4th line if needed and makes good use of some of next year's bumper cap space

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Since the Panthers are a budget team I've had an idea but I'm not sure if it's been raised on here already

We trade for Pysyk and take McGinn's 3.3M for 1 more year to keep the cost of acquisition down, it gets rid of salary for them and gets a RD for us and also a depth guy we can play on the 4th line if needed and makes good use of some of next year's bumper cap space

Pass. Pysyk is a good 3rd pairing RD at best and we have guys we are going to try there. McGinn wouldn't make our lineup if we expect it to be competitive.

Only trade I can really see at this point with Florida is maybe swapping Mascherin for Middleton and Gauthier. Since there is only a week until their rights expire, that would have to happen relatively soon though.

 

[Kiwi]

Pass. Pysyk is a good 3rd pairing RD at best and we have guys we are going to try there. McGinn wouldn't make our lineup if we expect it to be competitive.

Only trade I can really see at this point with Florida is maybe swapping Mascherin for Middleton and Gauthier. Since there is only a week until their rights expire, that would have to happen relatively soon though.

Well since we don't actually have a good bottom pair RD Pysyk would be useful especially if he's paired with Dermott and they can take on an expanded role and take some minutes off the top 4 guys, pysyk is potentially able to play in the top 4 to, McGinn is fine as a 4th liner/13th forward especially since we've promoted a lot of forwards recently and we're getting shorter of NHL ready kids ready for the jump

 

[Kurtz]

Pass. Pysyk is a good 3rd pairing RD at best and we have guys we are going to try there. McGinn wouldn't make our lineup if we expect it to be competitive.

Only trade I can really see at this point with Florida is maybe swapping Mascherin for Middleton and Gauthier. Since there is only a week until their rights expire, that would have to happen relatively soon though.

You're underrating him a bit - he has strong advanced stats, and at 26 is just entering a dman's prime. He's also been playing 19 minutes/game the last 2 years, which is solid 2nd pairing minutes.

Also has a team-friendly contract ($2.7m) for the next 2 years. This will be especially important in the 19-20 season, when Matthews and Marner's contracts kick in and Marleau likely still on the books.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Well since we don't actually have a good bottom pair RD Pysyk would be useful especially if he's paired with Dermott and they can take on an expanded role and take some minutes off the top 4 guys, pysyk is potentially able to play in the top 4 to, McGinn is fine as a 4th liner/13th forward especially since we've promoted a lot of forwards recently and we're getting shorter of NHL ready kids ready for the jump

Well we'd have Ozhiganov who they probably are going to try. Plus if we actually improve our top 4, we'd have Hainsey there to split time with him.

I'm taking Hainsey over Pysyk to help out Dermott, especially since he comes free.

Only way we would go after Pysyk is if we think he can be a top 4 RD or we are not improving our top 4 RD. Either do not look overly desirable unless Gardiner is getting dealt for someone much better defensively.

 

[Canada4Gold]

This thread has been buckets of fun for the past day or so I see

 

[SeaOfBlue]

You're underrating him a bit - he has strong advanced stats, and at 26 is just entering a dman's prime. He's also been playing 19 minutes/game the last 2 years, which is solid 2nd pairing minutes.

Also has a team-friendly contract ($2.7m) for the next 2 years. This will be especially important in the 19-20 season, when Matthews and Marner's contracts kick in and Marleau likely still on the books.

19 minutes/game is bottom pairing minutes. At least it is on this team.

Also his advanced stats were good for one year (2016-2017). His possession numbers this year are only half a point better than Polak's, and he had a lower DZS% so they could have probably been about equal. For making almost 3x the money, it's not overly impressive. I'm not saying he's bad or I would be up in arms over it or anything, but I think there are much better options out there in terms of quality and what we'd have to take back. Especially when you could probably get someone like Pateryn on a Hainsey contract or better if you really wanted someone to fill that spot.

Remember we would be talking about one year where his cap hit may be somewhat beneficial (even though 2.7 mill is not really less than he's worth), but next year he's essentially making 5 mill on the cap because we'd have to bury McGinn to get him for what I would assume to be no assets.

 

[Boutette]

What are these numbers? He went from 26 in 47 to 21 in 20 at a younger age than Johnsson as a defenseman. You’re not the only one with internet, everyone can see AHL numbers.

I'm including all the AHL numbers reg and playoffs. He was also further away from being arbitration eligible, and is eligible for arbitration this year.

 

[4thline]

Context definitely matters.

There's 2 completely different scenarios happening here with the players that you mentioned. And for that matter, you could have mentioned any other UFA or player on the block.

While a player is a UFA - you can have up to 31 teams bidding for his services. That matters when it comes to dealing with an RFA & UFA. It's not like there's going to be 30 teams in the league looking to put an offer sheet on Johnsson this off-season.

And there's 2 thoughts in my mind when to overpay.
1. Timing - Both the length of the contract and who becomes available plays a large part in this. Marleau became available at a perfect time in the development of this team. And the timing of when all of the core is in their ELC's or 1st years of their long deals.

2. Does that player bring something that your team lacks & how easy would it be to replace the guy -
Marleau was a different type of winger than what the Leafs had in their line-up. The 200ft player that can skate and score 27 for you isn't common. Contrary to a guy like Connor Brown, and I love Connor Brown as a player, but which one would it be easier to replace?

Perfect post
-use leverage /industry norms when you have them to keep costs down
-use extra money when you have it to make team better without causing long term harm

 

[Kiwi]

Well we'd have Ozhiganov who they probably are going to try. Plus if we actually improve our top 4, we'd have Hainsey there to split time with him.

I'm taking Hainsey over Pysyk to help out Dermott, especially since he comes free.

Only way we would go after Pysyk is if we think he can be a top 4 RD or we are not improving our top 4 RD. Either do not look overly desirable unless Gardiner is getting dealt for someone much better defensively.

We haven't been able to find a decent top 4 RD to play with Rielly for years so I'm not banking on that happening this off-season and Ozhiganov hasn't even played on NA ice yet, he'll be in tough just to make the team over Carrick

Pysyk suits our puck movers with questionable defensive games on the left and is better than everybody not named Zaitsev (that could be close to) on the right side of our D

An upgrade is an upgrade