Post-Game Talk: Free Agency 2023 "OH NO FOMO season"

[Rock Paper Sissons]

Doesn't really matter since Duchene doesn't play a "big" physical game. The "boy" has only missed 4 games in his 6 season career.

So when he played 52 games in 20-21… was that a 52 game season that year?

 

[Flgatorguy87]

So when he played 52 games in 20-21… was that a 52 game season that year?

COVID year?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

So when he played 52 games in 20-21… was that a 52 game season that year?

Almost. Covid seasons were 56 and 70.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Imagine...

2023-24
Forsberg ($8,5M) - Parssinen ($0.850833M) - Tomasino ($0.8633M)
Nyquist ($3.185M) - Glass ($2.5M) - Tarasenko ($6M)
Novak ($0.800M) - O'Reilly ($4.5M) - Evangelista ($0.7975M)
Sherwood ($0.775M) - Sissons ($2.857M) - Trenin ($1.7M)
Smith ($0.775M)
Jankowski/McCarron ($0.775M)

Josi ($9.059M) - Pesce ($4.025M)
McDonagh ($6.75M) - Barrie ($4.5M)
Lauzon ($2M) - Schenn ($2.75M)
Carrier/Fabbro ($2.5M)

Saros ($5M)
Lankinen ($2M)

Ekholm retention: $0.250M
Johansen retention: $4M
Turris Buyout: $2M
Duchene Buyout: $2.5556M

TOTAL: $82.268223M
2023-24 NHL Cap: $83.5M
REMAINING CAP SPACE: $1.23177M

Assuming we traded one of Fabbro/Carrier in the package to get Pesce. (It's probably Fabbro, since he's RFA after this season while Carrier is UFA?). Or there would be $2M more remaining Cap space if we traded Barrie instead. Plus signed Tarasenko for 1/2/3x$6M.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Almost. Covid seasons were 56 and 70.

And the four games DeBrincat missed were because he was in the covid protocol. So he hasn't actually missed any games due to injury. I feel like there is plenty to be wary about with giving DeBrincat a huge deal, but it's kind of hilarious that people think he is fragile wholly because he's short.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

And the four games DeBrincat missed were because he was in the covid protocol. So he hasn't actually missed any games due to injury. I feel like there is plenty to be wary about with giving DeBrincat a huge deal, but it's kind of hilarious that people think he is fragile wholly because he's short.

He also has 5 fights in the NHL, fwiw. Duchene has 2... but they were in 2010 and 2013 (both against Vladimir Sobotka, I guess he hates that guy?)

 

[LCPreds]

I thought we got rid of Duchene supposedly because of culture shift or something not because we disliked his production.I just want to win or at least not be bored watching us lose. If Debrincat helps with that then bring him in, provided it fits with whatever the plan might be.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I thought we got rid of Duchene supposedly because of culture shift or something not because we disliked his production.I just want to win or at least not be bored watching us lose. If Debrincat helps with that then bring him in, provided it fits with whatever the plan might be.

I think we know that in an immediate sense, adding DeBrincat to this lineup would make the team win more. He would score 10-20 more goals than either Tomasino or Evangelista (one of whom, or Kemell, or the 2024 1st, we would probably have to trade as part of the package to get him). So we'd win 3-5 more games, maybe?

But then you have to factor in that either a) you get him for just 1 year at $7-8M and then he walks as a UFA and you are left with nothing, or 2) you sign him on his terms to a long-term deal at $8-9M.

Is that better than just keeping Evangelista/Tomasino/Kemell/1st who all still have cheap ELC years remaining and will hopefully be closing the gap in goals in the coming years, while still leaving us Cap space to chase other UFAs in the next couple seasons (like a #1C)? And who knows how DeBrincat would age over those 8 years... maybe just like Duchene he'd settle into his middle-age hockey years on his comfortable contract and dust off Duchene's old chair in the Country Club?

I think the plan is instead to keep our kids and see what they've got, surround them with the killer instinct leaders like O'Reilly and Schenn so that they learn what it takes to become killer instinct leaders themselves, and be very very careful about who we give "lifetime" contracts to in the future.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

So when he played 52 games in 20-21… was that a 52 game season that year?

56 actually.

 

[Rock Paper Sissons]

Almost. Covid seasons were 56 and 70.

Ok my bad there lol
But he did only play 70 the next season so still missed more than 4 games.
Stupid Covid still messing with me haha

56 actually.

56 actually.

What about the next season he missed 12 games

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Ok my bad there lol
But he did only play 70 the next season so still missed more than 4 games.
Stupid Covid still messing with me haha




What about the next season he missed 12 games

He played 52 in a 56 game season. He played 70 in a 70 game season. He has four 82 game seasons otherwise.

 

[Olderfan]

The difference between DeBrincat and Tarasenko is immense. And I’m not speaking of their hockey ability. D is looking for a long term high paying career deal probably with an NTC. Preds don’t need that; they’ve had that. They got rid of 2 of those. We all grew to hate those; so did the Preds. T is on his way down and, although he probably wants top dollars and term he’ll probably get less and shorter without an NTC. Preds should only be interested if they seek to fill a short term hole with a scorer who is a leader/teacher. T does not impress me as that kind of player but what do I know? I’d consider a double Pass and seek other solutions.

 

[ShagDaddy]

I think we know that in an immediate sense, adding DeBrincat to this lineup would make the team win more. He would score 10-20 more goals than either Tomasino or Evangelista (one of whom, or Kemell, or the 2024 1st, we would probably have to trade as part of the package to get him). So we'd win 3-5 more games, maybe?

But then you have to factor in that either a) you get him for just 1 year at $7-8M and then he walks as a UFA and you are left with nothing, or 2) you sign him on his terms to a long-term deal at $8-9M.

Is that better than just keeping Evangelista/Tomasino/Kemell/1st who all still have cheap ELC years remaining and will hopefully be closing the gap in goals in the coming years, while still leaving us Cap space to chase other UFAs in the next couple seasons (like a #1C)? And who knows how DeBrincat would age over those 8 years... maybe just like Duchene he'd settle into his middle-age hockey years on his comfortable contract and dust off Duchene's old chair in the Country Club?

I think the plan is instead to keep our kids and see what they've got, surround them with the killer instinct leaders like O'Reilly and Schenn so that they learn what it takes to become killer instinct leaders themselves, and be very very careful about who we give "lifetime" contracts to in the future.

It’s better for the immediate future, we have no idea the impact it will have on the long term future.

 

[Armourboy]

Think there are too many people looking at moves and worried about winning now. As far as I can tell Trotz isn't worried about winning now.

Now I think the team will be entertaining to watch but they probably aren't going to be more than a bubble team unless a couple of guys just blow up this year. Once we figure out who is going to make it and who isn't then you look at grabbing a guy like Debrincat or even Tarasenko for a couple of year push, but doing so now is just putting the cart before the horse.

Debrincat is just this years shiny, and a couple of years ago and maybe a couple of years in the future he might be exactly what we need, but right now I don't really think so. I also don't think Trotz is going to be looking to get right back into a long term deal after finally getting out from under the back end of two.

 

[Kat Predator]

He played 52 in a 56 game season. He played 70 in a 70 game season. He has four 82 game seasons otherwise.

Sounds brittle.

Imagine...

2023-24
Forsberg ($8,5M) - Parssinen ($0.850833M) - Tomasino ($0.8633M)
Nyquist ($3.185M) - Glass ($2.5M) - Tarasenko ($6M)
Novak ($0.800M) - O'Reilly ($4.5M) - Evangelista ($0.7975M)
Sherwood ($0.775M) - Sissons ($2.857M) - Trenin ($1.7M)
Smith ($0.775M)
Jankowski/McCarron ($0.775M)

Josi ($9.059M) - Pesce ($4.025M)
McDonagh ($6.75M) - Barrie ($4.5M)
Lauzon ($2M) - Schenn ($2.75M)
Carrier/Fabbro ($2.5M)

Saros ($5M)
Lankinen ($2M)

Ekholm retention: $0.250M
Johansen retention: $4M
Turris Buyout: $2M
Duchene Buyout: $2.5556M

TOTAL: $82.268223M
2023-24 NHL Cap: $83.5M
REMAINING CAP SPACE: $1.23177M

Assuming we traded one of Fabbro/Carrier in the package to get Pesce. (It's probably Fabbro, since he's RFA after this season while Carrier is UFA?). Or there would be $2M more remaining Cap space if we traded Barrie instead. Plus signed Tarasenko for 1/2/3x$6M.

All that dead cap is going to really suck if the culture shock doesn't pay quick dividends.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

It’s better for the immediate future, we have no idea the impact it will have on the long term future.

I mean, I don't think we have NO idea. We can imagine best/median/worst case scenarios for the various assets involved. I think my personal "best-case" scenario for DeBrincat would be that he gives us some pretty sweet goal totals like 35-35-35-30-30-25-20-15 over those 8 years. And at the same time, I don't think I'd pay $8-9M a season for that, not for a 5'7" fairly unidimensional winger anyway.

And that's if he was a UFA and we didn't even have to trade anything for him. Instead, we have to trade, and even in the scenario where the stuff we trade might bust completely, then we're effectively just in the "UFA scenario". Which I still wouldn't take.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

All that dead cap is going to really suck if the culture shock doesn't pay quick dividends.

At this point, I would look at it like... well, just like A LOT of what Poile did in the last several years. I get the reasoning. It was worth a try. It was reasonable. If it fails, welp, that sucks, but it won't bother me that much. It was a good try.

Going full scorched-earth-I'm-ok-with-losing-for-a-decade is what would have bothered me most. I wouldn't even be posting here if that had happened.

Or... sticking with all our incumbents would have been, eh, that seems ill-advised, but at the same time I probably wouldn't have even imagined all the stuff Trotz has done would even have been possible. So had we instead had another standpat-ish 6 months, just like another Poile-ish turn from February onwards, it would not have shocked me. I'd just still be posting all kinds of "Fireh HyneZZZZ!!!!!!" stuff in a Hynes thread, and "TOVALNEN ROCKZZ!!!!" tbh, and that's about it.

 

[Kat Predator]

At this point, I would look at it like... well, just like A LOT of what Poile did in the last several years. I get the reasoning. It was worth a try. It was reasonable. If it fails, welp, that sucks, but it won't bother me that much. It was a good try.

Going full scorched-earth-I'm-ok-with-losing-for-a-decade is what would have bothered me most. I wouldn't even be posting here if that had happened.

Or... sticking with all our incumbents would have been, eh, that seems ill-advised, but at the same time I probably wouldn't have even imagined all the stuff Trotz has done would even have been possible. So had we instead had another standpat-ish 6 months, just like another Poile-ish turn from February onwards, it would not have shocked me. I'd just still be posting all kinds of "Fireh HyneZZZZ!!!!!!" stuff in a Hynes thread, and "TOVALNEN ROCKZZ!!!!" tbh, and that's about it.

It's wasn't meant as a critique. GMBT thinks he found the problem and went all in to try and solve it. Hard to say he took half measures here. So that seems like a real commitment to a plan and a new direction. (I doubt if Poile was going to be around 10+ years we'd have seen the TDL moves and the draft moves. Moves, sure. But Poile was loyal to a fault.)

I suppose if the wheels come off of this plan (hopefully not) it'll look more scorched-earth and with the big bite out of the cap it will be "I'm ok with losing" because, well, the number of other ways will necessarily be impacted.

It's a brave new world...

 

[AintLifeGrand]

Imagine.... Hopefully there is a way to make this work cap wise

Sign Tarasenko 3 years $6M

Trade: Debrincat signed at 6 years X 7.7 M for Fabbro, Sissons (cap dump), Tomasino, Tampa bay 1st that we own

Forsberg- Parsinnen-Tarasenko
DEBRINCAT- Novak-Evangelista
Nyquist-ROR-Tomasino
Trenin-Jankowski-Cole Smith

Josi-Schenn
Mcdonough- Barrie
Lauzon-Carrier
Livinstone

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Imagine.... Hopefully there is a way to make this work cap wise

Sign Tarasenko 3 years $6M

Trade: Debrincat signed at 6 years X 7.7 M for Fabbro, Sissons (cap dump), Tomasino, Tampa bay 1st that we own

Forsberg- Parsinnen-Tarasenko
DEBRINCAT- Novak-Evangelista
Nyquist-ROR-Tomasino
Trenin-Jankowski-Cole Smith

Josi-Schenn
Mcdonough- Barrie
Lauzon-Carrier
Livinstone

Way too much for Debrincat at this stage. Ottawa basically has no leverage. It won't take two former 1sts and a future 1st. Sissons also has value beyond just a salary dump.

 

[PredsV82]

Way too much for Debrincat at this stage. Ottawa basically has no leverage. It won't take two former 1sts and a future 1st. Sissons also has value beyond just a salary dump.

Yeah unextended DBC shouldn't cost much at all...

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Yeah unextended DBC shouldn't cost much at all...

I honestly feel like Ottawa is just going to have to ride it out. If Detroit isn't stepping up, they are just going to have to take the arbitration award on DeBrincat for 1yr, and then depending on where they are in the standings at the Trade Deadline, they are either going to move him for decent value, or if they are somehow in the playoffs keep him and let him walk. That's the best value they should get today, IMO.

Detroit knows all this. Sooooo....

 

[Rock Paper Sissons]

He played 52 in a 56 game season. He played 70 in a 70 game season. He has four 82 game seasons otherwise.

Ok you are right. I can admit when I’m wrong. I forgot about the shortened seasons.

But besides the point, I still don’t think we should waste assets on debrincat.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Ok you are right. I can admit when I’m wrong. I forgot about the shortened seasons.

But besides the point, I still don’t think we should waste assets on debrincat.

I'm not really a fan of acquiring him either. I''ver been open to it if we think it's upgrading on Tomasino, but not to offer much more than him and a non-1st to do it.

 

[Rock Paper Sissons]

I'm not really a fan of acquiring him either. I''ver been open to it if we think it's upgrading on Tomasino, but not to offer much more than him and a non-1st to do it.

I think I would rather keep Tomasino. I think he may have quite the bright future and I’m banking on him paying big dividends. He has really disappointed at all on any level.

Now if it was straight up debrincat for Tomasino I would think harder about it. But that’s not going to happen anyways.