So yesterday I heard Tiki say something that showed why we shouldn't listen to experts, especially about math. He mentioned how the Niners should have gone for an onside kick if they scored a TD in overtime. I wasn't listening super closely because I was working. But I believe it was if they got a TD. He listed 4 scenarios that could happen and 3 of them were good. And this dude who went to UVA and has a kid that goes to Brown or some other ivy with a straight face said that that means they had a 75% chance of winning. Dude, that's only relevant if all 4 scenarios are equal and therefore each 25% (technically could be an average of 25% of the positive scenarios). And onside kick is SIGNIFICANTLY smaller than 25%. I had some guy make a similar argument on a Wall Street page that I follow. I sure hope that dude doesn't work in finance. These are SIMPLE probability concepts that don't require anything beyond basic knowledge of probability.