I don't think its an outrageous take that the panthers have a better chance of giving up a top 10 pick then getting to the 2nd round. The move for tkachuk was wise in a long term view, it extends the window but it comes with short term pain tied to the cap problem of the yandle buyout
Reality, the panthers forwards are worse then last year and at best a wash, they've lost Huberdeau who short term is better than tkachuk from a chemistry perspective with the team and Mason Marchment. There defense while not horrifying is still worse then last year and relies so much on Ekblad staying healthy and playing 25-30 a night in a tough atlantic division and eastern conference. As we all know Goaltending is voodoo and both bob and knight may have down years and they have no pick support or prospects to trade to solve problems.
I don't think the panthers finish bottom 10, I'm expecting a pick between 14-20. However I think there is a scenario where they end up bottom 10 with an injured Ekblad or Barkov, and I think there is a scenario where they finish 2nd in the division behind Maurice.
Overall I'd say based on my view of it 5-10% ->Bottom 10 pick, 80-85% 14-20, 5-10% 20+
Of course Habs fans are going to wish for a top 10 pick, its rare to see an unprotected pick for a future draft get traded away and a fair number of times it happens it leads to crazy moments. Ottawa giving up Byram, SJ giving up stutzle(? or was it sanderson?), Toronto giving up Seguin. It's just good drama