Value of: Fleury buyout

[Riptide]

Even then....

If I'm Las Vegas, a proven yet young, affordable #1 goalie is pretty hard to pass up. Even if LV intends to suck for a few seasons, they could take Murray and move him to one of those teams looking for a #1 goalie for a better return than a 1st rounder.

I think Pittsburgh would need to buy off LV with the equivalent to Murray's outright trade value.

I think this is definitely thread-worthy since it massively effects what's possible/logical/likely for Pittsburgh in nets.

It would cost a lot less than that. If that was the price, why wouldn't PIT just trade Murray, get that return, and then move forward with MAF in net until Jarry or the goalie who JR and PIT scouts had rated as the top goalie in the draft is ready to take over? PIT has some amazing young G prospects. And while MM is by far the best of them, if he's not an affordable option, they have other options going forward.

LV is not going to get Matt Murray in the draft. Which means they'll either take something semi reasonable as a bribe, or if all else fails, he'll get traded elsewhere and LV will get the same options they had before - just without the bribe (picks/etc). This is why it will not cost anything near what his "trade value" is to protect Murray.

 

[Riptide]

Except Vegas loses two ways. The NHL is a zero sum game, only one team can win the cup. Throwing an anchor to Pittsburgh increases their chances to win the cup and also removes a competitor for free agents.

When was the last time a team went out of their way to intentionally screw another team over? I'll wait while you try and find a recent example.

Secondly, the NHL GMs group is the classic definition of an "old boys club". A GM isn't going to go out of his way to screw over another team. Why? Because all that does is put a target on his back and burn bridges for the future.

 

[Mr Misty]

When was the last time a team went out of their way to intentionally screw another team over? I'll wait while you try and find a recent example.

Secondly, the NHL GMs group is the classic definition of an "old boys club". A GM isn't going to go out of his way to screw over another team. Why? Because all that does is put a target on his back and burn bridges for the future.

There are plenty of recent examples of teams paying significant assets to move money off their books. Why anybody would expect Vegas to do Pittsburgh a massive favor is beyond me.

 

[Riptide]

There are plenty of recent examples of teams paying significant assets to move money off their books. Why anybody would expect Vegas to do Pittsburgh a massive favor is beyond me.

Except that wasn't what I asked.

As for what you're suggesting, you're looking at this the wrong way. LV isn't "doing PIT a favor" they're getting additional assets for themselves. I mean what's better for LV?

1) bribe from PIT (2nd+) and one of Rust/Kuhnhackl/Sheary/etc

2) Not getting Murray because PIT traded him and still only get one of those above players and no bribe?

Because realistically, if PIT can't protect Murray for a semi reasonable price, option 2 (out of the 6 PIT has), is much more realistic then PIT buying out MAF or PIT allowing Murray to get selected for free.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Except that wasn't what I asked.

As for what you're suggesting, you're looking at this the wrong way. LV isn't "doing PIT a favor" they're getting additional assets for themselves. I mean what's better for LV?

1) bribe from PIT (2nd+) and one of Rust/Kuhnhackl/Sheary/etc

2) Not getting Murray because PIT traded him and still only get one of those above players and no bribe?

Because realistically, if PIT can't protect Murray for a semi reasonable price, option 2 (out of the 6 PIT has), is much more realistic then PIT buying out MAF or PIT allowing Murray to get selected for free.

and then LV signs MAF in free agency and gets MAF+ say Sheary instead of 2nd+ Sheary

Of course not a certainty, but Pitt buying out MAF leaves that as an possibility.

 

[Finnish your Czech]

This is definitely a realistic outcome, and it would put Pittsburgh in an awkward situation.

 

[Penske]

There are plenty of recent examples of teams paying significant assets to move money off their books. Why anybody would expect Vegas to do Pittsburgh a massive favor is beyond me.

It's not about doing a massive favour for Pittsburgh though. It's what's best for Vegas.

Pittsburgh buying out Fleury does nothing for Vegas.

 

[Mr Misty]

Except that wasn't what I asked.

As for what you're suggesting, you're looking at this the wrong way. LV isn't "doing PIT a favor" they're getting additional assets for themselves. I mean what's better for LV?

1) bribe from PIT (2nd+) and one of Rust/Kuhnhackl/Sheary/etc

2) Not getting Murray because PIT traded him and still only get one of those above players and no bribe?

Because realistically, if PIT can't protect Murray for a semi reasonable price, option 2 (out of the 6 PIT has), is much more realistic then PIT buying out MAF or PIT allowing Murray to get selected for free.

The new market needs a winner ASAP, and a 2nd does nothing to help for years if at all. A bribe to not take Fleury makes no sense from a Vegas perspective. And the value of 2m is ~ a 2nd, making Fleury's buyout cost around 4 2nds, hence the huge favor a 2nd to not take Fleury is.

 

[Mr Misty]

It's not about doing a massive favour for Pittsburgh though. It's what's best for Vegas.

Pittsburgh buying out Fleury does nothing for Vegas.

It saddles a competitor with 1.9m in dead space for 4 years. That's 1.9m that won't be spent on competing for free agents with Vegas and 1.9m that won't be spent improving a team that is also trying to win the Cup.

This is a zero sum game, it shouldn't be hard to see how one franchise's troubles help every other franchise.

 

[Canada4Gold]

This isn't a 1 sided negoiation. Like any negotiation it will be a give and take. Pittsburgh wants to bribe LV to not take Murray. LV knows worse case scenario Pitt will buyout MAF so if their goal is to get the biggest bribe possible.

LV might start at 1st+prospect, Pit might offer a 2nd, they'll go from there, and come to a happy medium if a deal is gonna be made.

Just like it's not in LV interests to screw Pittsburgh over and not gain anything tangible, it's not in Pittsburgh's interest to buyout MAF either.

Pit can play the take the 2nd or we buy him out bluff game just as easily as LV can play the give us a 1st+prospect game or feel free to buy him out bluff.

In reality this likely won't end in an first offer ultimatum that the other side gives into at the last moment. Both sides will make an initial "bribe" offer, and the end bribe if one gets made will be somewhere in the middle

 

[KIRK]

The Pens will probably do everything in their power to keep both goalies by bribing LV not to take Murray in the draft.

I don't see the Pens spending 9.5M on two goalies next year.

And, yes, to OP, it absolutely is 100% in Fleury's interest to block any trade he can and force the Penguins to choose him or buy him out.

I'm still not sure the Pens won't choose Fleury. I know, it's insane. But, they love Fleury. The media has his back 100%. The 'Murray didn't do much for the cup' talk is out there. And, I suspect there's prevailing thought in the organization that the Pens win the cup with Fleury if he hadn't suffered the concussion. If Murray doesn't distinguish himself from Fleury, it's not implausible that the organization explores whether they're better off for the next 3-4 years (the Sid/Geno window) with Fleury, adding the great return they could get for Murray, and letting Jarry and Gustafsson compete to be goalies of the future.

Again, not what I'd do, but it's hard not to wonder if the Pens are looking for an excuse to choose Fleury.

 

[Riptide]

and then LV signs MAF in free agency and gets MAF+ say Sheary instead of 2nd+ Sheary

Of course not a certainty, but Pitt buying out MAF leaves that as an possibility.

Did you even read what I wrote? No where in there did I say (or even suggest) that PIT was going to buy out MAF.

Unless MAF stinks this season, I'd place much higher odds on Murray getting traded then MAF getting bought out (if those were the only two options Rutherford had).

 

[Riptide]

It saddles a competitor with 1.9m in dead space for 4 years. That's 1.9m that won't be spent on competing for free agents with Vegas and 1.9m that won't be spent improving a team that is also trying to win the Cup.

This is a zero sum game, it shouldn't be hard to see how one franchise's troubles help every other franchise.

I'm still waiting for you to come up with a recent example or two of a GM trying to screw over another team. You keep saying things like "it's a zero sum game" while ignoring the fact that the NHL is the ultimate definition of an old boys club where friendships and knowing other GMs goes a very long way to getting deals done.

 

[Riptide]

This isn't a 1 sided negoiation. Like any negotiation it will be a give and take. Pittsburgh wants to bribe LV to not take Murray. LV knows worse case scenario Pitt will buyout MAF so if their goal is to get the biggest bribe possible.

Wrong.

The worst case scenario is PIT trading Murray - not them buying out MAF. And realistically, MM getting traded is much more likely then MAF getting bought out.

 

[Flamesjustwin]

That wouldn't be the ultimatum for LV though.

The ultimatum would be that LV can either take the bribe plus the expansion player not named Murray, or the Pens buy out Fleury and LV only gets the expansion player not named Murray.



Ideally, yes. But the Pens org has an unreasonable love for Fleury.

Except as I said in a Penguins board thread it makes more sense for LV to tell Pitts to buy him out. It puts another goalie on the market for them to go after, a better one than anything they can get through expansion. It is McPhee's job to do the best thing for LV, not to do the Pens favours. A 1st is not cutting it not to touch Murray either, it will take a lot more than that to get LV to not select a young franchise goalie. Either Fleury waives his NMC and is traded or they have to buy him out, there is no other way this is playing out.

 

[Flamesjustwin]

It's not about doing a massive favour for Pittsburgh though. It's what's best for Vegas.

Pittsburgh buying out Fleury does nothing for Vegas.

Except is does. It puts a clear cut starter in play for their goaltending position. Given the fact they can pay Fleury more than anyone else probably given the cap space they will have and it makes sense financially for Fleury as well. He gets the buyout money from the Pens and a big contract from LV. If he knows he is not going to be the guy in Pittsburgh why would he not do it? It isn't like he has not won a SC either.

 

[Riptide]

Except as I said in a Penguins board thread it makes more sense for LV to tell Pitts to buy him out. It puts another goalie on the market for them to go after, a better one than anything they can get through expansion. It is McPhee's job to do the best thing for LV, not to do the Pens favours. A 1st is not cutting it not to touch Murray either, it will take a lot more than that to get LV to not select a young franchise goalie. Either Fleury waives his NMC and is traded or they have to buy him out, there is no other way this is playing out.

And when PIT trades Murray out west somewhere (for whatever return), and LV ends up making the exact same selection they would have made had they taken the deal from PIT (2nd+), how is that in LV's best interest? They end up with the same selection as before, but without the much needed additional picks.

One can say that they need to produce a winning team fairly quickly (and that's not untrue), however the only way they'll have any sustained success is by building their farm team - and considering they need to do that from scratch, them getting extra picks (even late ones) is very needed.

 

[Flamesjustwin]

And when PIT trades Murray out west somewhere (for whatever return), and LV ends up making the exact same selection they would have made had they taken the deal from PIT (2nd+), how is that in LV's best interest? They end up with the same selection as before, but without the much needed additional picks.

One can say that they need to produce a winning team fairly quickly (and that's not untrue), however the only way they'll have any sustained success is by building their farm team - and considering they need to do that from scratch, them getting extra picks (even late ones) is very needed.

Much like McPhee is probably thinking, there is about no chance in hell the Pens keep Fleury and trade MM.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Wrong.

The worst case scenario is PIT trading Murray - not them buying out MAF. And realistically, MM getting traded is much more likely then MAF getting bought out.

agree to disagree. I think there's a far greater chance MAF is bought out than Murray is traded.

But even then negotiating a higher bribe is preferable to Pitsburgh than trading Murray so I doubt there will be some opening ultimatum. There will still be a negotiation between that 2 and I don't see LV settling for a 2nd.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Except as I said in a Penguins board thread it makes more sense for LV to tell Pitts to buy him out. It puts another goalie on the market for them to go after, a better one than anything they can get through expansion. It is McPhee's job to do the best thing for LV, not to do the Pens favours. A 1st is not cutting it not to touch Murray either, it will take a lot more than that to get LV to not select a young franchise goalie. Either Fleury waives his NMC and is traded or they have to buy him out, there is no other way this is playing out.

Again, Murray is literally never available for Vegas. It's either they pick Pouliot and get a 2nd round pick (just an example) or they pick Pouliot and they get an extra chance at getting a starting goalie in free agency. Murray is not a part of this equation, it's not get a 2nd round pick plus Pouliot or get Murray.

I don't understand what this means. Are you saying he has a no move clause but can also be traded?

Plus, if he doesn't want to go, it isn't hard to make a list of 18 teams that don't want him/can't afford him. Having options of where to send him doesn't necessarily mean a trade is possible.

His NMC protects him from waivers and being loaned. He doesn't have protection from trades in his NMC, his protection from trades comes from a separate clause that gives him a 12 team list for teams he won't accept a trade to. Yes, it isn't hard for him to make a list of 18 teams who don't need him, but it's also isn't hard for him to put teams who he wouldn't be the starter on that list too. It's baseless to say one is more likely than the other, no one knows what Fleury wants. Does he want to stay in Pittsburgh more than he wants to be a starter? Only Fleury and his agent know that.

While it's possible to imagine a scenario where he would be bad, it's also possible to imagine one where he wins the Vezina. All we have to do is hold his performance constant between both situations. He'd make more with a buyout in all the cases except the absolute worst ones because 32 year old players get paid more and sign for longer than 34 year old ones. As long as he clears the 3.8m total over 2 years his career earnings will be greater.

If Fleury ever wins a Vezina in my life, I'd go set $10,000 on fire in front of PPG Paints Arena. It will never happen because he's a slightly above average starting goalie, nothing more.

Except Vegas loses two ways. The NHL is a zero sum game, only one team can win the cup. Throwing an anchor to Pittsburgh increases their chances to win the cup and also removes a competitor for free agents.

Second if McPhee does a favor for Pittsburgh, he'll have no credibility with other GMs. Reputation matters; it's why Burke didn't trade Cammaleri and why Benning didn't trade Hamhuis. When you cave to a lowball offer you make a bunch of future problems for yourself.

A. McPhee isn't just "doing a favor for Pittsburgh", he's maximizing his assets by getting free assets in exchange for not taking a player that wouldn't be available for him anyway.
B. If you seriously think the first paragraph is how GMs operate, I don't know what to tell you. GMs don't go around trying to figure out how to screw over other teams. If it's a deal that helps Vegas, McPhee would definitely look into it. He's not going to say "oh, it helps you guys too, so go screw yourselves".

 

[Penske]

Except is does. It puts a clear cut starter in play for their goaltending position. Given the fact they can pay Fleury more than anyone else probably given the cap space they will have and it makes sense financially for Fleury as well. He gets the buyout money from the Pens and a big contract from LV. If he knows he is not going to be the guy in Pittsburgh why would he not do it? It isn't like he has not won a SC either.

If LV are giving out big contracts for goalies Fleury isn't their first choice.

I'm not sure if Fleury would want to take a young family to Vegas either. If Murray gets the majority of the starting duties Fleury may ask for a trade before the TDL. There will be teams enquiring about him throughout the year there could be one where he wants to go and be the starter.

The reason he does this and not the buyout route is because it takes away the stress away and he gets to go somewhere he wants where there will be no disputing who the starter is. He can be settled.

Alternatively he might be riding the pine for the year lowering his value and there will be quite a bit of uncertainty about where he's playing next season.

He will still be wanting another cup. He might only want to go to a good team to get in the top 2 all time wins as well.

 

[Riptide]

Much like McPhee is probably thinking, there is about no chance in hell the Pens keep Fleury and trade MM.

Two things.
One, McPhee will find out before he gets to make his picks whether PIT is willing to buy out MAF or not. The buyout date is several days before PIT needs to submit their protected list. Which means GM will know well before the draft whether PIT is up against the wall, as either MAF will already be bought out or PIT keeps him and thus is looking at other options (get MAF to waive, trade MAF, bribe LV).
Two, do you really think Rutherford would buyout MAF at 4x1.9m vs just trading Murray for a very good return? Remember, this is a team that didn't trade MAF this summer, has Jarry who's looked very good and just drafted one of the top goalies in the draft.

But realistically, considering this teams loyalty to it's players in general, the cost and the PR issues surrounding a MAF buyout, Murray gets traded well before MAF gets bought out. Especially when you think of the return that MM will get.

 

[Flamesjustwin]

Two things.
One, McPhee will find out before he gets to make his picks whether PIT is willing to buy out MAF or not. The buyout date is several days before PIT needs to submit their protected list. Which means GM will know well before the draft whether PIT is up against the wall, as either MAF will already be bought out or PIT keeps him and thus is looking at other options (get MAF to waive, trade MAF, bribe LV).
Two, do you really think Rutherford would buyout MAF at 4x1.9m vs just trading Murray for a very good return? Remember, this is a team that didn't trade MAF this summer, has Jarry who's looked very good and just drafted one of the top goalies in the draft.

But realistically, considering this teams loyalty to it's players in general, the cost and the PR issues surrounding a MAF buyout, Murray gets traded well before MAF gets bought out. Especially when you think of the return that MM will get.

There is no way MM is getting traded. Fleury doesn't exactly ring confidence in the post season and has not looked great to start this year either. Why in the hell would JR trade a young franchise goalie who took them to a SC win? That is certainly not happening.

 

[Riptide]

There is no way MM is getting traded. Fleury doesn't exactly ring confidence in the post season and has not looked great to start this year either. Why in the hell would JR trade a young franchise goalie who took them to a SC win? That is certainly not happening.

And there's no way in hell that MAF is getting bought out. Its just not happening.

There's pro's and con's either way there, but the reality is this team will not buy out MAF - if you think otherwise, then you have no clue how the Pittsburgh Penguins operate. PIT has other good goalie prospects, and MAF is still a very talented goalie. Which means it's very easy to look at the situation and see that while trading MM would suck, it also wouldn't be the end of the world for PIT.

 

[Boud]

A good alternative may be to trade Fleury to a team where he'll be a clear cut #1 and in exchange take the other teams goaltender who doesn't have a NMC or that waives it to go to Pitsburgh.

Ex: Trade Fleury to Ottawa for Anderson. Anderson has no NMC and doesn't get protected in the expansion draft. Pitsburgh keeps Murray and Ottawa gets a younger starter. Ottawa could add a bit but you get the idea.

Not many teams if any are able to take on nearly 6M per year for Fleury unless Pitsburgh takes a goalie back.