Value of: Fleury buyout

[Empoleon8771]

The Islanders have only one goalie (Halak)

And he's making like $4.5 million per year and having 2 goalies making that much isn't at all cheap. They also are likely to run with Halak-Berube for next season unless they trade Halak for a better goalie.

Carolina's goalies both make less than $3.5 million each for the last remaining year on their contracts (easily could be bought out)

So instead of just trading one of those goalies for Fleury, both teams will buy out their current goalies and then Carolina will sign Fleury. Sure

If Fleury is willing to sign in Carolina, why can't they just trade him there for Lack and a 2nd?

Lehnar has been injury prone and I could easily see him either not resigned or Fleury brought in, with the more than $24 million in cap space that they will have to spend, to push him).

But Murray loves Lehner and he paid a hefty price for him, they're not going to cut off from him just because he's been injury prone. If anything, I imagine they'll go after someone like Neuvirth to tandem with Lehner.

A Dallas buyout/trade may be more difficult but if they both s**t the bed in the play-offs the fans will demand a change.

But again, if Fleury is willing to sign in Dallas, why can't each team just swap goalies? You're making a situation overly complicated because you want support for your idea that the Pens are screwed. You're severely overestimating the willingness of teams to buyout players, especially when you consider that if they buy out their goalie and don't get Fleury, they may be in a bad spot.

But to play along I will ignore all the above and look at only Philly, Calgary and Las Vegas.
The goalies you listed form three obvious tiers.
Tier #1 Bishop - who will very likely go to highest bidder
Tier #2 Fleury - who would likely go to the next highest bidder
Tier #3 The rest that you named who are all just MEH.

Mason and Fleury are basically on the same level, I don't know what you've been watching. Fleury is a slightly above average starter around like 12th best in the league, he's not better than Mason and teams could probably get more bang for your buck by going after some other cheaper goalies.

The supply of top goalies would be limited to two, Bishop and Fleury and a bunch of poor substitutes (which is why they are not under contract).

That's not how supply works, that's not how any of this works. In reality, it's Bishop and a bunch of average substitutes to Bishop. The difference between Bishop and Fleury is bigger than the difference between Fleury and everyone else minus Bernier. Along with that, money and price is a huge driving factor. Why did Calgary pick Elliott over Fleury last summer? Because Elliott only cost 2 2nds and JR wanted a top-10 pick for Fleury.

I suppose you view a Lamborghini and Toyota Corrola as the same thing, they do both have four wheels.

If Fleury was actually a Lamborghini, people wouldn't be clamoring to dump him to keep Murray. You're either overrating Fleury seriously or you are just lying to fit your own agenda.

 

[Flamesjustwin]

While true, I still have to ask myself "Would MAF do that to the Penguins team that has been so very good and understanding with him"?

I mean, why go down in the same name as guys like Dany Heatley? The Penguins organization has been nothing but good to him. Why would he suddenly turn around and screw them?

Ok, so you sign a long term deal with a NMC and a partial NTC with a team because you want to be there. The NMC is there because you have good faith in the organization they want you and it provides you security. Now that organization will either try and force you out via trade to give your job to another player or buy you out. How is that being nothing but good to him?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Ok, so you sign a long term deal with a NMC and a partial NTC with a team because you want to be there. The NMC is there because you have good faith in the organization they want you and it provides you security. Now that organization will either try and force you out via trade to give your job to another player or buy you out. How is that being nothing but good to him?

While I understand where you're coming from, you have to remember how well the Penguins have treated Fleury over the years and how much rope they've given him. Almost any other goalie would have been bought out after 2012 or 2013, but the Pens stuck with him when they really shouldn't have. The situation with Murray and the expansion draft forces the Pens to push out Murray, but they've treated him extremely well over his career and they respect the hell out of him.

That's a part of the reason that I think they haven't traded Fleury yet. I don't doubt that they'll let Fleury pick where he's going exactly in a trade, they'll basically expand his ntc into a full one and let him decide his location. I don't think they'll just push him off to Vegas or somewhere like that.

 

[SEALBound]

Ok, so you sign a long term deal with a NMC and a partial NTC with a team because you want to be there. The NMC is there because you have good faith in the organization they want you and it provides you security. Now that organization will either try and force you out via trade to give your job to another player or buy you out. How is that being nothing but good to him?

2010, 2011, 2012, 2013...then getting another contract with a raise.

Trust me, this org has been MORE than fair and understanding with MAF.

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

And he's making like $4.5 million per year and having 2 goalies making that much isn't at all cheap. They also are likely to run with Halak-Berube for next season unless they trade Halak for a better goalie.



So instead of just trading one of those goalies for Fleury, both teams will buy out their current goalies and then Carolina will sign Fleury. Sure

If Fleury is willing to sign in Carolina, why can't they just trade him there for Lack and a 2nd?



But Murray loves Lehner and he paid a hefty price for him, they're not going to cut off from him just because he's been injury prone. If anything, I imagine they'll go after someone like Neuvirth to tandem with Lehner.



But again, if Fleury is willing to sign in Dallas, why can't each team just swap goalies? You're making a situation overly complicated because you want support for your idea that the Pens are screwed. You're severely overestimating the willingness of teams to buyout players, especially when you consider that if they buy out their goalie and don't get Fleury, they may be in a bad spot.



Mason and Fleury are basically on the same level, I don't know what you've been watching. Fleury is a slightly above average starter around like 12th best in the league, he's not better than Mason and teams could probably get more bang for your buck by going after some other cheaper goalies.



That's not how supply works, that's not how any of this works. In reality, it's Bishop and a bunch of average substitutes to Bishop. The difference between Bishop and Fleury is bigger than the difference between Fleury and everyone else minus Bernier. Along with that, money and price is a huge driving factor. Why did Calgary pick Elliott over Fleury last summer? Because Elliott only cost 2 2nds and JR wanted a top-10 pick for Fleury.



If Fleury was actually a Lamborghini, people wouldn't be clamoring to dump him to keep Murray. You're either overrating Fleury seriously or you are just lying to fit your own agenda.

You asked “why can't each team just swap goalies†the answer is obvious because he would miss out on his $7.67 million dollar buyout.
The situation is not overly complicated it’s just the business side of hockey.

Also with $1.91 million in his pocket for the next 4 years Fleury could make himself even more attractive to teams in the off-season as he could bring down his asking price if he wanted/had to do so.

You also claim that I am “seriously overrating Fleuryâ€, well NHL.COM on August 16th of this year published an article ranking the 10 best goalies in the NHL.
They had Bishop ranked at #4 and Fleury ranked at #9.
None of the other goalies that you mentioned are on this list.
Claiming that “Mason and Fleury are basically on the same level†(which you did) is no different than if I had said that Bishop and Fleury are basically on the same level (which I did not).
If anyone is lying to prove their point I would say it is you.


You feel that I am “severely overestimating the willingness of teams (in this case the Penguins) to buyout playersâ€. I don’t agree, I’m positive that the Penguins hate the idea of buying out Fleury and having that cap hit for the next four years, however, if you don’t think the rest of the players , including those on the Penguins who love MAF, will be watching how Fleury is treated by the Penguins you are being naïve, obstinate or deliberately obtuse.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You asked “why can't each team just swap goalies†the answer is obvious because he would miss out on his $7.67 million dollar buyout.
The situation is not overly complicated it’s just the business side of hockey.

Also with $1.91 million in his pocket for the next 4 years Fleury could make himself even more attractive to teams in the off-season as he could bring down his asking price if he wanted/had to do so.

So Fleury will not accept a trade somewhere but will sign there just to get some more money. Okay, sure. You obviously know Fleury well enough that you can make that claim

You also claim that I am “seriously overrating Fleuryâ€, well NHL.COM on August 16th of this year published an article ranking the 10 best goalies in the NHL.
They had Bishop ranked at #4 and Fleury ranked at #9.
None of the other goalies that you mentioned are on this list.
Claiming that “Mason and Fleury are basically on the same level†(which you did) is no different than if I had said that Bishop and Fleury are basically on the same level (which I did not).
If anyone is lying to prove their point I would say it is you.

A. Your logical fallacy is appeal to authority
B. Mason and Fleury are on basically the same level, I have the stats to support that.
C. Fleury is a fringe top-10 goalie, which is why I think his rating is fair. I also think Mason is a fringe top-10 goalie, meaning he could fall anywhere between 9 and 12 (just like Fleury).
D. Having a different opinion isn't lying.

You feel that I am “severely overestimating the willingness of teams (in this case the Penguins) to buyout playersâ€. I don’t agree, I’m positive that the Penguins hate the idea of buying out Fleury and having that cap hit for the next four years, however, if you don’t think the rest of the players , including those on the Penguins who love MAF, will be watching how Fleury is treated by the Penguins you are being naïve, obstinate or deliberately obtuse.

Yeah, I'm being obtuse. Yeah, sure

You also ignored that I was talking about Dallas and Carolina when talking about buyouts, not the Pens. I'm also not saying that Fleury won't do what you're saying, I'm saying that it's baseless to say that he will do this because you don't know whether what you're saying is applicable to Fleury. You're passing off your speculation as fact and you're support is "logic", which is why I'm criticizing it. You're making a logical jump, in that people care most about money so Fleury will push to get the most money he can. You don't know if that's right, which is my entire point.

 

[chethejet]

Pens are not a franchise that readily does buyouts. The expansion draft may change that thinking as the Pens are not going to lose Murray for squat. MAF will be moved at some point. If there is a team that believes they are a contender if they upgrade that position, then certainly MAF will be on that list. Things change during a season and who knows what may happen.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Pens are not a franchise that readily does buyouts. The expansion draft may change that thinking as the Pens are not going to lose Murray for squat. MAF will be moved at some point. If there is a team that believes they are a contender if they upgrade that position, then certainly MAF will be on that list. Things change during a season and who knows what may happen.

Yeah, I don't see the Pens buying him out unless they're absolutely forced to, they obviously respect the hell out of the guy and I imagine a buyout would look bad in the media. What I imagine will happen is both the Pens and Fleury will work together to get Fleury in the best possible spot they can and the Pens will basically just swap him with another goalie. They'll basically let Fleury decide where he goes and they'll take whatever they can from that team.

I would imagine that Walsh (Fleury's agent) would go out and look for teams that would be interested in Fleury, Walsh would give the Pens a team or teams where Fleury would be willing to go and the Pens will make a deal with that team or teams, whether it be for a nothing return or an actual return.

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

So Fleury will not accept a trade somewhere but will sign there just to get some more money. Okay, sure. You obviously know Fleury well enough that you can make that claim



A. Your logical fallacy is appeal to authority
B. Mason and Fleury are on basically the same level, I have the stats to support that.
C. Fleury is a fringe top-10 goalie, which is why I think his rating is fair. I also think Mason is a fringe top-10 goalie, meaning he could fall anywhere between 9 and 12 (just like Fleury).
D. Having a different opinion isn't lying.



Yeah, I'm being obtuse. Yeah, sure

You also ignored that I was talking about Dallas and Carolina when talking about buyouts, not the Pens. I'm also not saying that Fleury won't do what you're saying, I'm saying that it's baseless to say that he will do this because you don't know whether what you're saying is applicable to Fleury. You're passing off your speculation as fact and you're support is "logic", which is why I'm criticizing it. You're making a logical jump, in that people care most about money so Fleury will push to get the most money he can. You don't know if that's right, which is my entire point.

I have not said that I know what drives Fleury.
My opinion, which I have never claimed was anything else but my opinion, is that the buyout is the most likely outcome and I explained why I felt that way.
I also posited a scenario where a buyout could allow Fleury more control over his career, rather than leaving it up to the GM, who is the cause of the situation in the first place, to determine his fate.

To claim that my opinion is "baseless" when a full season of hockey was lost over money issues seems to be argumentative.

Just look at the UFA market every year. For every player signing for the best chance at winning a cup, like Brian Campbell in Chicago, I would say there are three following the money to the highest bidder regardless of the limited opportunities that may be offered there.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I have not said that I know what drives Fleury.
My opinion, which I have never claimed was anything else but my opinion, is that the buyout is the most likely outcome and I explained why I felt that way.
I also posited a scenario where a buyout could allow Fleury more control over his career, rather than leaving it up to the GM, who is the cause of the situation in the first place, to determine his fate.

To claim that my opinion is "baseless" when a full season of hockey was lost over money issues seems to be argumentative.

It's baseless in the sense that you have no concrete support for it. It's basically just as baseless as me saying that he'll put bad teams and Canadian teams on his NTC. You may be able to support it logically (my defense would be that Fleury likely doesn't want to go to a bad team and that many NHLers put Canadian teams on their NTC), but it's still baseless because there isn't any empirical evidence to support whether you're right or not. It sounded like you were saying "a buyout is going to happen because it logically makes the most sense, which is why I was bringing up the baseless talk.

Those situations are all possible without a doubt, it just seemed like you were originally saying "this is what is going to happen, and if you think otherwise, you're being naive".

Just look at the UFA market every year. For every player signing for the best chance at winning a cup, like Brian Campbell in Chicago, I would say there are three following the money to the highest bidder regardless of the limited opportunities that may be offered there.

The issue is most of the time, the only thing that people hear about free agent signings is if they signed somewhere that wasn't offering the most money. Whether it be Clarkson signing in his home over Edmonton (who offered more) or Miller going to Vancouver for his wife (when other teams were offering more) or Ehrhoff signing in Pittsbrugh over Detroit (who offered more) or Suter going home instead of signing in Philly (who offered more), that's the only kinds of situations you hear when free agents sign somewhere. We don't know what percentage of players follow the money because the tweets like "Semin signs with Carolina because they offered the most money" don't exist, the only tweets that exist are the ones saying why player X turned down more money to sign somewhere else.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Anything less than a 1st rounder wouldn't be interesting.

No guarantees that Murray would be taken....but likely that is the scenario.

Apparently the Vegans are not allowed to make any deals until the completion of the expansion draft.

Any deals that are made after the draft that look "suspicious" might not get approved by the League.

The most likely scenario...Fleury doesn't waive his NMC, so the Pens "have" to trade Murray at a discount.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Dan the Man 1967

You mentioned Byran Campbell. Funny how he took a real discount to sign with the Hawks, The Panthers who finished first in their division last year, you what think had just as much change to win the Cup as Chicago.
Campbell's wife is from Chicago, and he spent his off seasons in Chicago. So maybe it was the "Wife wants to live in Chicago, that's where I'll play."

So, he makes 1.5m in Chicago and maybe he could have 5m elsewhere. 3.5m sounds like a lot of $ for most people but Brian I think has made 50m in his NHL career (salary only) so the money difference isn't that much in the big picture for him.

 

[Empoleon8771]

No guarantees that Murray would be taken....but likely that is the scenario.

Apparently the Vegans are not allowed to make any deals until the completion of the expansion draft.

Any deals that are made after the draft that look "suspicious" might not get approved by the League.

The most likely scenario...Fleury doesn't waive his NMC, so the Pens "have" to trade Murray at a discount.

This is the second time you've said this in this thread and it's still wrong. Why are you repeating the same nonsense again?

 

[Dying Alive]

No guarantees that Murray would be taken....but likely that is the scenario.

Apparently the Vegans are not allowed to make any deals until the completion of the expansion draft.

Any deals that are made after the draft that look "suspicious" might not get approved by the League.

The most likely scenario...Fleury doesn't waive his NMC, so the Pens "have" to trade Murray at a discount.

Do you honestly think that's the most likely scenario?

 

[SEALBound]

No guarantees that Murray would be taken....but likely that is the scenario.

Apparently the Vegans are not allowed to make any deals until the completion of the expansion draft.

Any deals that are made after the draft that look "suspicious" might not get approved by the League.

The most likely scenario...Fleury doesn't waive his NMC, so the Pens "have" to trade Murray at a discount.

You wrote sentences in this post and literally, all 4 of them are wrong. 0 for 4. Well done.

But humor me, why would the Penguins "have to trade Murray at a discount"?

 

[DasKaiser]

Great point.

All signs point to Fleury wanting to stay in Pittsburgh. When you consider that there are only a handful of teams that need a #1 goalie, have an open goalie spot to protect and can afford Fleury, all the guy has to do is put the 12 most likely teams to trade for him on his list, and the Pens will have no choice but to either trade Murray for assets and keep Fleury, or buy Fleury out. Either way Fleury wins. Guy has little incentive to waiving his NTC or not using his list to his advantage.

Pens fans won't be happy to hear it, this is the most likely outcome right now, given the information available at the moment.

Have to think, from his play so far this year, they would buy him out. Of course, wait and see how Murray plays when back, which is soon. I'm sure they will trade him, if some team would do that favour.

 

[Flamesjustwin]

Yeah, I don't see the Pens buying him out unless they're absolutely forced to, they obviously respect the hell out of the guy and I imagine a buyout would look bad in the media. What I imagine will happen is both the Pens and Fleury will work together to get Fleury in the best possible spot they can and the Pens will basically just swap him with another goalie. They'll basically let Fleury decide where he goes and they'll take whatever they can from that team.

I would imagine that Walsh (Fleury's agent) would go out and look for teams that would be interested in Fleury, Walsh would give the Pens a team or teams where Fleury would be willing to go and the Pens will make a deal with that team or teams, whether it be for a nothing return or an actual return.

I think this is almost certainly the way this will play out, good post.