Value of: Fleury buyout

[Creativero]

I just want to point our how lucrative a buyout is for Fleury this summer since people seem to think he might waive his no trade clause to facilitate a trade. He'll have a 2 year $11.5 million contract with a buyout of $7.66 million. If he is bought out and signs a team friendly 3 year $12+7.66=19.66 million he is in effect tacking on 1 year 8.16 million to his last contract. Why in the world would he pass that up to join a team a couple months sooner? To be clear I'm not suggesting he defiantly won't be trade, just that the no-trade teams are specifically chosen to prevent a trade and he won't waive the NTC.

Players in the Negotiation

1. Fluery
Whats he wants: Max earning or stay in Pittsburgh
How he gets it : JUST DO NOTHING
2. Las Vegas: Murray
How they get him:JUST DO NOTHING
3. Teams that want Fleury: Acquire Fluery as cheaply as possible.
How they get it: JUST OFFER NOTHING or maybe less than that.
4. Penguins
What they want: Murray to stay and Fluery to go
How they get it: trade or buyout

Everyone in involved knows whats everyone else is thinking. The only way 3 of 4 parties involved here get what they really want is to not allow remotely even trade to happen. The Penguins are the only ones with anything to loose. I just think its an interesting negotiations setup where the Penguins are in a very weak position.

I'll also point out Fleury a obscenely wealthy professional athlete, not a business with day to day cash flow issues. Waiting 2 extra years for millions of additional dollars means nothing to him. He's not going to make that up with any sort of legal investment.

Click to read more...

 

[voxel]

I don't think he can sign with the same buying out team for a year after buyout?

 

[Tatar Shots]

I don't think he can sign with the same buying out team for a year after buyout?

OP means signing with the team he would be traded to, not resigning with the Pens. It does make a lot of sense to force the Pens to buy him out if you are Fleury.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Great point.

All signs point to Fleury wanting to stay in Pittsburgh. When you consider that there are only a handful of teams that need a #1 goalie, have an open goalie spot to protect and can afford Fleury, all the guy has to do is put the 12 most likely teams to trade for him on his list, and the Pens will have no choice but to either trade Murray for assets and keep Fleury, or buy Fleury out. Either way Fleury wins. Guy has little incentive to waiving his NTC or not using his list to his advantage.

Pens fans won't be happy to hear it, this is the most likely outcome right now, given the information available at the moment.

 

[voxel]

OP means signing with the team he would be traded to, not resigning with the Pens. It does make a lot of sense to force the Pens to buy him out if you are Fleury.

Maybe I don't understand the situation. Won't the Pens just expose him in the expansion draft and Vegas picks him up? Unless he has a NMC and then that would be a problem.

 

[Tripod]

Maybe I don't understand the situation. Won't the Pens just expose him in the expansion draft and Vegas picks him up? Unless he has a NMC and then that would be a problem.

Yes...he has that NMC, thus causing the problem.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

The Pens will probably do everything in their power to keep both goalies by bribing LV not to take Murray in the draft.

 

[Creativero]

The Pens will probably do everything in their power to keep both goalies by bribing LV not to take Murray in the .

He's a top young player on a 3 year 3.75 so his trade/bribe value is probably someone like Kessel (The Penguins refused to include him in the Kessel trade before he ever played in the NHL).

 

[Empoleon8771]

A. Why is this thread worthy?
B. Fleury runs the risk of not being able to find a starter's job if he forces a buyout. There are more teams that can trade their current starter for Fleury than there are teams who can sign a UFA Fleury to be their starter.
C. Fleury probably cares more about being a starter than staying in Pittsburgh, so the idea that he would put any team that would want him on his NTC is faulty thinking. It could be right, but it's fault as of right now.
D. This isn't even an issue until next summer, JR is keeping Fleury for the season because he loves goaltending depth. Just look at what happened to the Habs last year and the Kings this year.
E. JR seems to think that he can pay off Vegas into not taking Murray and manage to keep Fleury and Murray, so it's not like it's "buyout Fleury or lose Murray for nothing". There are about 6 possible solutions here (trade Fleury, trade Murray, bribe Vegas into not taking Murray, get Fleury to waive his NMC and be eligible for the expansion draft, do the prior and bribe Vegas into not taking Fleury and buying out Fleury). I don't think a lot of those solutions are good ideas, but they do have some flexibility here.

 

[Mad Brills*]

The Pens will probably do everything in their power to keep both goalies by bribing LV not to take Murray in the draft.

Anything less than a 1st rounder wouldn't be interesting.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Anything less than a 1st rounder wouldn't be interesting.

Let's just throw this situation out there. How much do you think it would cost to bribe Vegas into not taking Fleury? If Fleury would waive his NMC and be eligible for the draft and the Pens would pay off Vegas into not taking Fleury, Fleury wouldn't be in any different of a situation (he'd still be in Pittsburgh) and the Pens would likely have to pay less to bribe Vegas for Fleury instead of Murray.

 

[PTH]

Anything less than a 1st rounder wouldn't be interesting.

Even then....

If I'm Las Vegas, a proven yet young, affordable #1 goalie is pretty hard to pass up. Even if LV intends to suck for a few seasons, they could take Murray and move him to one of those teams looking for a #1 goalie for a better return than a 1st rounder.

I think Pittsburgh would need to buy off LV with the equivalent to Murray's outright trade value.

I think this is definitely thread-worthy since it massively effects what's possible/logical/likely for Pittsburgh in nets.

 

[Creativero]

Let's just throw this situation out there. How much do you think it would cost to bribe Vegas into not taking Fleury? If Fleury would waive his NMC and be eligible for the draft and the Pens would pay off Vegas into not taking Fleury, Fleury wouldn't be in any different of a situation (he'd still be in Pittsburgh) and the Pens would likely have to pay less to bribe Vegas for Fleury instead of Murray.

Even if it's only a 3rd round pick you still are going to have to pay him 5.75 million for 2 years and loose some FA. I'm honestly not sure if that's better than just buying him out.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Even if it's only a 3rd round pick you still are going to have to pay him 5.75 million for 2 years and loose some FA. I'm honestly not sure if that's better than just buying him out.

I don't want to do that, I'd rather just trade Fleury. I'm just saying that the Pens aren't in a "buyout Fleury or lose Murray" situation. If the Pens buyout Fleury, Murray's cap hit will essentially go to Fleury's cap hit, so it's not really that big of a difference.

 

[Djp]

I just want to point our how lucrative a buyout is for Fleury this summer since people seem to think he might waive his no trade clause to facilitate a trade. He'll have a 2 year $11.5 million contract with a buyout of $7.66 million. If he is bought out and signs a team friendly 3 year $12+7.66=19.66 million he is in effect tacking on 1 year 8.16 million to his last contract. Why in the world would he pass that up to join a team a couple months sooner? To be clear I'm not suggesting he defiantly won't be trade, just that the no-trade teams are specifically chosen to prevent a trade and he won't waive the NTC.

faulty premise....

No team will sign MAF to a contract at $4M per after a buyout.

They could entice Vegas to take MAF in the expansion draft.

 

[Mr Misty]

Anything less than a 1st rounder wouldn't be interesting.

I'd much rather have instant franchise goalie than a late 1st, and it isn't like the Penguins roster is full of other good players likely to be unprotected.

Let's just throw this situation out there. How much do you think it would cost to bribe Vegas into not taking Fleury? If Fleury would waive his NMC and be eligible for the draft and the Pens would pay off Vegas into not taking Fleury, Fleury wouldn't be in any different of a situation (he'd still be in Pittsburgh) and the Pens would likely have to pay less to bribe Vegas for Fleury instead of Murray.

Why would they bribe Vegas to not take Fleury? Isn't the ultimate solution to this problem making Fleury go somewhere else? You can still get a decent goalie for half of what he makes and use the savings elsewhere.

And why would he waive in the first place? In order to break even on a buyout he only needs to get 1/3 of what he makes now, which should be no trouble given the current goalie market. It seems like the choice is waive and start for Vegas or don't waive and either be the starter in Pittsburgh or somewhere else of his choice with more money.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I'd much rather have instant franchise goalie than a late 1st, and it isn't like the Penguins roster is full of other good players likely to be unprotected.

That wouldn't be the ultimatum for LV though.

The ultimatum would be that LV can either take the bribe plus the expansion player not named Murray, or the Pens buy out Fleury and LV only gets the expansion player not named Murray.

Why would they bribe Vegas to not take Fleury? Isn't the ultimate solution to this problem making Fleury go somewhere else? You can still get a decent goalie for half of what he makes and use the savings elsewhere.

Ideally, yes. But the Pens org has an unreasonable love for Fleury.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Why would they bribe Vegas to not take Fleury? Isn't the ultimate solution to this problem making Fleury go somewhere else? You can still get a decent goalie for half of what he makes and use the savings elsewhere.

That's what most fans on this site want, but JR seems to want to keep both goalies through the expansion draft. The most logical solution is to just trade Fleury for a goalie that doesn't have a NMC, but I'm not sure if JR wants to do that.

And why would he waive in the first place? In order to break even on a buyout he only needs to get 1/3 of what he makes now, which should be no trouble given the current goalie market. It seems like the choice is waive and start for Vegas or don't waive and either be the starter in Pittsburgh or somewhere else of his choice with more money.

If he gets bought out, he'll make $7.66 million spread out over 4 years. If he takes a 3 year, $4 million deal, he'd be making the equivalent of $5.9 million per year over those 3 years, which is basically what he's making now. That's around the contract he needs to be breaking even, which isn't a given because many teams who can use a goalie upgrade can't give that contract Fleury unless they trade one of their own goalies.

That wouldn't be the ultimatum for LV though.

The ultimatum would be that LV can either take the bribe plus the expansion player not named Murray, or the Pens buy out Fleury and LV only gets the expansion player not named Murray.

Yeah, this is the correct way of looking at it. It's not a 2nd and Pouliot vs Murray, it's a 2nd and Pouliot vs Pouliot with the Penguins eating $1.9 million on Fleury's contract from a buyout.

 

[Mr Misty]

That's what most fans on this site want, but JR seems to want to keep both goalies through the expansion draft. The most logical solution is to just trade Fleury for a goalie that doesn't have a NMC, but I'm not sure if JR wants to do that.

I don't see the logic in that solution, if he'd waive his NMC for a trade why wouldn't he waive for Vegas?

If he gets bought out, he'll make $7.66 million spread out over 4 years. If he takes a 3 year, $4 million deal, he'd be making the equivalent of $5.9 million per year over those 3 years, which is basically what he's making now. That's around the contract he needs to be breaking even, which isn't a given because many teams who can use a goalie upgrade can't give that contract Fleury unless they trade one of their own goalies.

If he makes 4m next year on his new deal, he'll clear more money total than his current 2 year deal (11.66 vs 11.5). I doubt he will have difficulty making 4m combined over the two years of his contract and everything over the first 3.8m is money he won't earn without being bought out first. Plus he will be a free agent at 32 instead of 34 giving him more valuable years to offer a team. He wouldn't make 5.75m AAV in either case but his career earnings will be greater with a buyout.

Yeah, this is the correct way of looking at it. It's not a 2nd and Pouliot vs Murray, it's a 2nd and Pouliot vs Pouliot with the Penguins eating $1.9 million on Fleury's contract from a buyout.

Except it's 1.9m in dead cap space and real dollars for four years. If people on HF have figured out that 2m in cap hit is worth a 2nd do you think McPhee and the gang won't notice they are doing you a huge favor?

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Well, bribery is out of the question. Vegas is not allowed to make deals before the draft. Any deals suspicious deals after the draft may not be allowed by the NHL.

Fleury could force a potential buyout by the Pens and make a little more money. But I don't think he would do this. So maybe maybe Murray gets traded by the Pens if they think he will be selected by Vegas.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't see the logic in that solution, if he'd waive his NMC for a trade why wouldn't he waive for Vegas?

He doesn't have a full NTC, he can be traded to 18 teams once Vegas is in the league without his consent.

If he makes 4m next year on his new deal, he'll clear more money total than his current 2 year deal (11.66 vs 11.5). I doubt he will have difficulty making 4m combined over the two years of his contract and everything over the first 3.8m is money he won't earn without being bought out first. Plus he will be a free agent at 32 instead of 34 giving him more valuable years to offer a team. He wouldn't make 5.75m AAV in either case but his career earnings will be greater with a buyout.

He's not making $7.66 million in 1 year though, he's making $1.9 million in each of 4 years. For him to break even over the next 2 years, he needs to have a $4 million AAV. His career earnings wouldn't definitely be larger. There are way too many variables to actually say that. For example, let's say that Fleury can't find a starter's role as a free agent because no one can afford him. If he'd sign somewhere as a platoon goalie, he'd likely only be making like $4 million max. Now, if he would be traded to a team and he'd be their undisputed starter, he wouldn't be lowered into a platoon goalie and he'd be more likely to be getting starter's money after this deal than he would after being a platoon goalie.

Except it's 1.9m in dead cap space and real dollars for four years. If people on HF have figured out that 2m in cap hit is worth a 2nd do you think McPhee and the gang won't notice they are doing you a huge favor?

Vegas gets nothing out of the Pens having $1.9 million in dead cap space. Vegas doesn't benefit from that, only the Penguins get hurt from that. Either Vegas gets nothing or Vegas gets a 2nd, what happens to the Penguins is irrelevant to that.

Well, bribery is out of the question. Vegas is not allowed to make deals before the draft. Any deals suspicious deals after the draft may not be allowed by the NHL.

Fleury could force a potential buyout by the Pens and make a little more money. But I don't think he would do this. So maybe maybe Murray gets traded by the Pens if they think he will be selected by Vegas.

That's just blatantly false, Vegas is allowed to make trades before the draft.

 

[Canada4Gold]

faulty premise....

No team will sign MAF to a contract at $4M per after a buyout.

They could entice Vegas to take MAF in the expansion draft.

You don't think MAF could get a 3 year 4 million dollar contract this offseason? Reimer just got a 5 year 3.4 million dollar contract. He wouldn't be bought out because he sucks, he'd be bought out to protect Murray. I think MAF could get 3x4 with ease.

 

[Canada4Gold]

That wouldn't be the ultimatum for LV though.

The ultimatum would be that LV can either take the bribe plus the expansion player not named Murray, or the Pens buy out Fleury and LV only gets the expansion player not named Murray.

So the choice would be...

a) take the bribe, and the other expansion player, or

b) don't take the bribe, MAF bought out, they get said other expansion player and then can sign MAF as a free agent if they choose and MAF wants to

MAF is a solid goalie for an expansion team, they'll likely have competition in signing him, but that bribe better be worth more than the chance to sign MAF as a free agent too.

Even if MAF doesn't sign there and signs somewhere else, that thins out the demand for other goalies. Bishop is a free agent this offseason as well.

 

[Mr Misty]

He doesn't have a full NTC, he can be traded to 18 teams once Vegas is in the league without his consent.

I don't understand what this means. Are you saying he has a no move clause but can also be traded?

Plus, if he doesn't want to go, it isn't hard to make a list of 18 teams that don't want him/can't afford him. Having options of where to send him doesn't necessarily mean a trade is possible.

He's not making $7.66 million in 1 year though, he's making $1.9 million in each of 4 years. For him to break even over the next 2 years, he needs to have a $4 million AAV. His career earnings wouldn't definitely be larger. There are way too many variables to actually say that. For example, let's say that Fleury can't find a starter's role as a free agent because no one can afford him. If he'd sign somewhere as a platoon goalie, he'd likely only be making like $4 million max. Now, if he would be traded to a team and he'd be their undisputed starter, he wouldn't be lowered into a platoon goalie and he'd be more likely to be getting starter's money after this deal than he would after being a platoon goalie.

While it's possible to imagine a scenario where he would be bad, it's also possible to imagine one where he wins the Vezina. All we have to do is hold his performance constant between both situations. He'd make more with a buyout in all the cases except the absolute worst ones because 32 year old players get paid more and sign for longer than 34 year old ones. As long as he clears the 3.8m total over 2 years his career earnings will be greater.

Vegas gets nothing out of the Pens having $1.9 million in dead cap space. Vegas doesn't benefit from that, only the Penguins get hurt from that. Either Vegas gets nothing or Vegas gets a 2nd, what happens to the Penguins is irrelevant to that.

Except Vegas loses two ways. The NHL is a zero sum game, only one team can win the cup. Throwing an anchor to Pittsburgh increases their chances to win the cup and also removes a competitor for free agents.

Second if McPhee does a favor for Pittsburgh, he'll have no credibility with other GMs. Reputation matters; it's why Burke didn't trade Cammaleri and why Benning didn't trade Hamhuis. When you cave to a lowball offer you make a bunch of future problems for yourself.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I don't understand what this means. Are you saying he has a no move clause but can also be traded?

He has a partial NMC. Can't be waived or sent to the minors(the NMC part), but can only block a trade to 12 teams(partial NTC part)

Might as well be a full NMC though, just make the 12 team list teams like Dallas, Carolina, Calgary, etc, etc. Realistically there are only about 10 teams who might trade for him. Block them all and it's extremely unlikely one of the other teams will trade for him