First Third of Jets Season vs The Last Two Thirds

[Jetfaninflorida]

Great read today in TheFiveHohl by Garret Hohl. If you don't follow that you are missing out. As part of it, he compares and contrasts the Jets NHL Record hot start first third of the season (16 games) vs their next 32 games. It is a great read. You can follow Garret and find it if you would like.

Unless you happen to believe that looking at the Jets NHL record start to the season first 16 games and comparing it to the next two thirds of the season is in your mind and your mind only some sort of bias. Then you shouldn't check it out.

Click to read more...

 

[gojetsgo]

or I mean you can look at the season trends instead of just taking out the hot start and leaving the cold stretch
15-1
3-7
14-6-3

but hey, that doesn't fit people's narrative that this team isn't actually good...

 

[Weezeric]

Great read today in TheFiveHohl by Garret Hohl. If you don't follow that you are missing out. As part of it, he compares and contrasts the Jets NHL Record hot start first third of the season (16 games) vs their next 32 games. It is a great read. You can follow Garret and find it if you would like.

Unless you happen to believe that looking at the Jets NHL record start to the season first 16 games and comparing it to the next two thirds of the season is in your mind and your mind only some sort of bias. Then you shouldn't check it out.

What would you say is the takeaway point of Garret’s article? Other than the Jets aren’t that good for reasons.

 

[AtomicJets]

I'd rather gouge my eyes out than read that idiot's content

 

[Gm0ney]

What would you say is the takeaway point of Garret’s article? Other than the Jets aren’t that good for reasons.

1. The hot start was followed by some expected regression to the mean.

2. The Jets' 5v5 analytics are middle-of-the-pack but they have an elite goalie and powerplay so they're outperforming those.

3. They're probably not quite as good as their record.

 

[Skidooboy]

lets see those error bars....

 

[Crocket]

That guy is insufferable and has some horrible takes.

 

[DRW204]

The Jets aren't as good as their 15-1 start. No team can sustain that. Following that 1/3 stretch: they went through a patch of injuries, and tough schedule along with natural regression. Still a V good team.

 

[Buffdog]

I'll read the first article where Garret says "I had an opinion then followed the data and it turns out I was wrong"

So in other words, I'll never read one of his articles. Just confirmation bias pieces

I hope it drums up some work for him though. I'm sure next time he's hired by a team it will go better than the time someone made him GM of a BC midget AAA team lol

 

[RabidOne]

I'd rather gouge my eyes out than read that idiot's content

That was a bit ambiguous, how do you really feel?

 

[Skidooboy]

I'll read the first article where Garret says "I had an opinion then followed the data and it turns out I was wrong"

So in other words, I'll never read one of his articles. Just confirmation bias pieces

I hope it drums up some work for him though. I'm sure next time he's hired by a team it will go better than the time someone made him GM of a BC midget AAA team lol

i'd read it...I sure as shit wouldn't PAY to read it.

 

[scelaton]

I find it best to attack the motives or character of the writer before actually reading the article

(For those actually interested, the article is freely available on line. I just read it--it wasn't even particularly controversial, mostly educational, going over basic stuff like how larger sample sizes eventually even-out aberrant results over time and the predictive value of certain by-now familiar metrics. It used the Jets only as an illustration of the bigger picture.)

 

[Shlep]

I'll read the first article where Garret says "I had an opinion then followed the data and it turns out I was wrong"

So in other words, I'll never read one of his articles. Just confirmation bias pieces

I hope it drums up some work for him though. I'm sure next time he's hired by a team it will go better than the time someone made him GM of a BC midget AAA team lol

He was part of the analytics team that won the cup in Washington.

 

[AtomicJets]

He was part of the analytics team that won the cup in Washington.

He was a small part of the company hired by Washington to track AHL data. He had no part in decision making nor was he ever part of the Capitals organization. He no longer works in hockey in any capacity.

 

[Shlep]

He was a small part of the company hired by Washington to track AHL data. He had no part in decision making nor was he ever part of the Capitals organization. He no longer works in hockey in any capacity.

Appreciate the correction, evidently I misunderstood his role. Though I'd still say that's a far cry from being a midget coach. Guy knows his stuff.

 

[Moloch]

Not as good as their best record and not as bad as their worst.

 

[KingBogo]

or I mean you can look at the season trends instead of just taking out the hot start and leaving the cold stretch
15-1
3-7
14-6-3

but hey, that doesn't fit people's narrative that this team isn't actually good...

Considering that middle 3-7 stretch was 10 games in 19 nights with a B2B, that had the team on go from the East Coast to the West Coast on the same road trip. You take out the hardest stretch of games we are looking real good. I wonder how each team's toughest stretch of games looks like compared to other stretches of the season? I betcha they are all pretty similar.

 

[Jets 31]

Why are some trying so hard not to enjoy the best team in the Western conference and 2nd best in the NHL??? I don't understand and never will. If we were 0-10 in our last 10 games i could see people being upset but jesus try and enjoy our team just a little instead of always saying ya but.

 

[raideralex99]

Considering that middle 3-7 stretch was 10 games in 19 nights with a B2B, that had the team on go from the East Coast to the West Coast on the same road trip. You take out the hardest stretch of games we are looking real good. I wonder how each team's toughest stretch of games looks like compared to other stretches of the season? I betcha they are all pretty similar.

Exactly.
I'm getting tried of these posts ... the Jets going through a losing record when there's a reason for it plus other teams have basically the same record when they go through a stretch like that.
Check the post in the first week of January where I said lets see how the Stars do when they have to play 8 games in 14 nights in late January ... weird they lost 4 of 6 games in regulation time and they are playing Vegas tonight and the Blues tomorrow.

 

[KingBogo]

Why are some trying so hard not to enjoy the best team in the Western conference and 2nd best in the NHL??? I don't understand and never will. If we were 0-10 in our last 10 games i could see people being upset but jesus try and enjoy our team just a little instead of always saying ya but.

Bang on Dude! Not sure why so many people can't just enjoy the ride. There is 82 games over 7 months and each one can be enjoyed on its own. Even better when we are sitting not only at the top of the Central, but at the top of the Western Conference going into the last week of January. I'm going tonight and it is only -2 outside. All is good!

 

[kanadalainen]

Why are some trying so hard not to enjoy the best team in the Western conference and 2nd best in the NHL??? I don't understand and never will. If we were 0-10 in our last 10 games i could see people being upset but jesus try and enjoy our team just a little instead of always saying ya but.

 

[tbcwpg]

Why are some trying so hard not to enjoy the best team in the Western conference and 2nd best in the NHL??? I don't understand and never will. If we were 0-10 in our last 10 games i could see people being upset but jesus try and enjoy our team just a little instead of always saying ya but.

Panic in advance of the playoffs

 

[Jet]

or I mean you can look at the season trends instead of just taking out the hot start and leaving the cold stretch
15-1
3-7
14-6-3

but hey, that doesn't fit people's narrative that this team isn't actually good...

Yeah, IMHO this thread is nothing more than someone butthurt bc people aren't on the we suck train

 

[Jets 31]

Panic in advance of the playoffs

Fair but at least wait until a week or so before the playoffs to worry about that. Enjoy our team that already has 69 points before the end of January. There are some teams that won't get that many points before the end of the season.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

What a series of bizarre reactions to Garret's article... and too many expected 'so therefore I didn't read it' - because they had confirmed their own biases early haha...

'This isn’t to say that Winnipeg is bad or that 16-13-3 reflects the “real” Jets.

The 15-1-0 run was just as much a part of the team’s story. Both stretches contribute to the full picture of what defines this team. The question is where in the middle is this team?'

I am missing the part where he is 'anti-Jets'

'Interestingly, despite being the simplest metric—focused solely on shot quantity—Corsi consistently predicts team and player success better than expected goals or goals.'

'Be skeptical of anyone dismissing the insights from Corsi simply because goals or expected goals metrics suggest a different narrative that matches their own opinion. Shot volume, as measured by Corsi, often provides the most reliable foundation for analyzing team and player performance.'

'They have solid goaltending. They have an elite power play. Yet, there are still gaps—particularly in their 5v5 play—that need addressing if they want to maximize their playoff chances.'

Inflammatory stuff.

I honestly don't see the negative in his article... EVERYONE on this board knows we are pretty good at 5v5 but that our powerplay is the straw that stirs the drink and the Helle wins extra games for us.

The charts do meet the eye test and they do show that lines/pairings with more ice time are closer to the mean.

Maybe the anger stems from the data showing that Stan is not good.... I don't know anymore.