First 10 Games: HF Leafs' Impressions

[Notsince67]

Here are the 2nd 5 game stretch stats among teams who played 4 games this time frame.
Record: 4-0-1

5 on 5
CF/60: 45.98(21st out of 26th)
CA/60: 58.1(19th out of 26th)
CF%: 44.18(24th out of 26th)

SCF/60: 23.98(13th out of 26th)
SCA/60: 28.18(22nd out of 26th)

HDCF/60: 10.14(11th out of 26th)
HDCA/60: 14.09(24th out of 26th)

xGF/60: 2.07(15th out of 26th)
xGA/60: 2.87(24th out of 26th)

SH%: 9.52(8th out of 28th)
SV%: .941(7th out of 28th)

So our offensive numbers weren't as bad as expected, but clearly way below where we should be. The regression came defensively so this needs to pick up. Hooefully with rest and more practice time gets us back to where need to be. Our 5 vs 5 play was clearly lacking and was covered up by good goaltending and shooting.


5 on 4 PP
CF/60: 102.43(9th out of 26th)
SCF/60: 78.33(1st out of 26th)
HDCF/60: 36.15(1st out of 26th)
xGF/60: 9.28(1st out of 26th)

SH%: 25.93(3rd out of 26th)

Our PP has been just fantastic. This is the 2nd stretch in a row where our PP has been great by almost every measure. Our SH% isn't by accident. When you set up this many chances, you should score a high amount. The split strategy is working at least for now.

4 on 5 PK
CA/60: 71.76(3rd out of 26th)
SCA/60: 55.02(21st out of 26th)
HDCA/60: 23.92(19th out of 26th)
xGA/60: 5.19(5th out of 26th)

SV%: 76.42(22nd out of 26th)

Reflection of our 5 vs 5 play defensively. Our shot quality is okay, but quality was too high all though not as bad as our 5 on 5 numbers. Needed better goaltending on the PK as well.

I did a quick and dirty smell test to see how xGF and xgA correlated to actual teams the last few years.
it looks to me that the differential this year between GF% and XGF% of the leafs is smaller that the differential of Tampa in the last 3 years.
Boston is another team that beats model expectations.
Styles matter.
What matters is wins. We shouldnt lose sight of that. Better to pick up the debris of a loss to see where things failed than second guess a pretty good winning streak, which I must add...is one of the best predictors of future game successs.

 

[zeke]

Ok so I wanted to dive a bit deeper into the idea of the "improved defense" this year.

First thing to mention is that the Leafs already improved (drastically) defensively last year after Keefe took over, and were a legit average defensive team the entire time he coached last year.

Secondly, moving from Barrie/Ceci to Brodie/Bogo and having Rielly and Muzzin healthy came with an expectation of even better defense than that average level.

Thirdly - I agree that they have looked better structurally defensively this year....at least until the last few games, where I think they fell apart a bit defensively and gave up all sorts of great chances....though I do think just plain exhaustion had something to do with that at the end of a tough 10gms in 18 night stretch.

So let's take a look at how they've changed this year from what they were last year under keefe.


Even Strength Under Keefe Last Year --> This Year

#24 2.67 goals against/60 ---> #11 2.11 goals against/60
#15 2.43 expected ga/60 ----> #23 2.48 expected ga/60
#15 30.4 shots against/60 ---> #8 27.42 shots against/60
#17 42.3 fenwick against/60 -> #11 37.8 shots against/60
#13 54.7 corsi against/60 ----> #8 48.8 corsi against/60
#26 91.2 save % -------------> #16 91.8 save %

Penalty Kill

#14 6.57 goals against/60 ----> #21 8.45 goals against/60
#3 6.01 expected ga/60 ------> #20 7.12 expected ga/60
#8 48.1 shots against/60 -----> #6 44.0 shots against/60
#11 70.0 fenwick against/60 --> #5 59.8 fenwick against/60
#12 92.3 corsi against/60 -----> #4 78.1 corsi against/60
#17 86.3 save % ---------------> #27 80.8 save %

Ok, so there does seem to be legit improvement here. Both at evens and on the PK. What's more, it seems like concentrating on the Expected Goals stat here might be misleading, as it seems out of line with every single other stat. Though the improvement isn't quite as much as the EV Goals stats suggests, as save percentage improving from awful to average has played a big part there. The PK is the opposite - save percentage has gone from average to awful on the PK, even though the other numbers are seeing closer to a top-5 PK...aside again from expected goals against.

Aside from the expected goals stat, all the other numbers suggest that the Leafs have bumped up from average defense under Keefe last year to legit good, borderline top-10 defense this year. I'm willing to admit that in this case the outlier stat is likely the misleading stat here, and should correct itself towards the others.

So I stand corrected - what i thought was just a carry over of last year's average defense to this year, instead it does seem like a solid improvement so far.

And note - while our division is weak, it isn't weak offensively. There's arguably more offensive talent in this division than any other.

Now let's look at the offense to get the full picture:


Even Strength Offense

#5 2.90 goals for/60 -------> #19 2.19 goals for/60
#3 2.80 expected gf/60 ----> #16 2.34 expected gf/60
#5 32.3 shots for/60 -------> #24 27.4 shots for/60
#3 45.5 fenwick for/60 -----> #21 38.8 fenwick for/60
#4 59.8 corsi for/60 --------> #13 53.9 corsi for/60
#7 9.0 shooting % ----------> #16 8.0 shooting %

Power Play

#2 9.53 goals for/60 --------> #1 18.78 goals for/60
#22 6.64 expected gf/60 ---> #1 12.91 goals for/60
#13 55.0 shots for/60 ------> #1 97.22 shots for/60
#19 72.4 fenwick for/60 ----> #1 120.01 fenwick for/60
#23 91.6 corsi for/60 -------> #1 138.51 corsi for/60
#2 17.35 shooting % --------> #9 19.3 shooting %


Ok now this is even worse than I thought. The offense has plummeted all the way from elite top-5 under Keefe last year down to just plain bad by any measure this year. That simply can't happen to this team. The offense has to improve and by a lot.

That being said, i'm very confident it will.

On the other hand, our PP has changed from "Ok but with lethal shooting" last year, all the way to "super duper unbelievably elite" this year. All those 1st place rankings you see there actually still UNDERRATE how good the Leafs' PP has been this year - they are #1 by a MILE in every one of those stats, with the 2nd place team being nowhere even close in any of them. You would think it's obviously unsustainable, then again, it sure seems like it should be really damn good.

So really there's just one big mystery this year - where oh where has the even strength offense gone? It's worrisome but not that worrisome given the talent on the roster.

From my eye test, it actually doesn't seem to be a big problem in terms of offensive zone time - we seem to spend plenty of time in the offensive zone, we just haven't been turning that zone time into shots and chances anywhere near enough. That should change going forward.


Conclusion: I was wrong, the Leafs have mostly played better than I feared. The defensive uptick has been legit. I'm still plenty worried about whether they can play top ten defense while getting their offense back up to elite, but i'll give them credit for that improvement at this point.

So i'll upgrade my C+ grade one full grade up to B+ . While the overall play still has been nowhere near good enough for me, the legit upgrade defensively along with mostly being able to turn the offense up a notch when needed to win games brings it up to a closer to average grade, with that insane PP still adding a + to it.

Hey Mirtle, you're welcome for this one.

Again.

Mirtle: Where and how the Maple Leafs are better (and worse) than last season

"I’ve pulled together a long list of relevant statistics comparing this season to last season’s 47 games under Sheldon Keefe and noting where the Leafs rank in all the relevant categories so far this year."

"Other indicators similar to expected goals — like shot attempts and scoring chances — are in a bit better place, too.

It’s also clear from these numbers that the Leafs have significantly cut down on shot attempts, shots, chances and goals against. I don’t think you can completely discount all of that, based on one statistic that has them flat.

What it looks like — both from the eye test and this data here — is the Leafs are playing better defensively and getting a decent amount of offensive-zone time at even strength. But they’ve struggled to generate nearly as many quality chances as last season, with a lot of that possession not translating into Grade A opportunities"

 

[Gary Nylund]

What it looks like — both from the eye test and this data here — is the Leafs are playing better defensively and getting a decent amount of offensive-zone time at even strength. But they’ve struggled to generate nearly as many quality chances as last season, with a lot of that possession not translating into Grade A opportunities"

So defensively we're better and offensively we're worse then last season (assuming that actual scoring chances are more important than possession).

Shouldn't the expectation be that we're better in every way compared to last season? Not only is our division/schedule easy but last year we had so many injuries - wasn't that our main excuse for having such a crappy regular season?

 

[Critical13]

Hey Mirtle, you're welcome for this one.

Again.

Mirtle: Where and how the Maple Leafs are better (and worse) than last season

"I’ve pulled together a long list of relevant statistics comparing this season to last season’s 47 games under Sheldon Keefe and noting where the Leafs rank in all the relevant categories so far this year."

"Other indicators similar to expected goals — like shot attempts and scoring chances — are in a bit better place, too.

It’s also clear from these numbers that the Leafs have significantly cut down on shot attempts, shots, chances and goals against. I don’t think you can completely discount all of that, based on one statistic that has them flat.

What it looks like — both from the eye test and this data here — is the Leafs are playing better defensively and getting a decent amount of offensive-zone time at even strength. But they’ve struggled to generate nearly as many quality chances as last season, with a lot of that possession not translating into Grade A opportunities"

Mirtle is Dekes and Simmonds is shamed.

Edit: *shaner, but shamed works too.

 

[zeke]

So defensively we're better and offensively we're worse then last season (assuming that actual scoring chances are more important than possession).

Shouldn't the expectation be that we're better in every way compared to last season? Not only is our division/schedule easy but last year we had so many injuries - wasn't that our main excuse for having such a crappy regular season?

Yes. They should be much better offensively.

 

[zeke]

Mirtle is Dekes and Simmonds is shamed.

Edit: *shaner, but shamed works too.

Hey I'm not Dekes.

 

[rumman]

So defensively we're better and offensively we're worse then last season (assuming that actual scoring chances are more important than possession).

Shouldn't the expectation be that we're better in every way compared to last season? Not only is our division/schedule easy but last year we had so many injuries - wasn't that our main excuse for having such a crappy regular season?

zero reason this team shouldn't be better offensively 5 on 5, but seeing them win tight games isn't the worst thing, could possibly help come playoff time?

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I gave them a B+.

5 on 5 goal scoring could be better, but Freddie has settled in, and hey, we are winning.

I think the divisional structure helps us. All of this is a prelude to the playoffs though. We could reach conference finals a little more easily given the divisional focus, but I think the real test will be after that in the Conference finals.

 

[Gary Nylund]

zero reason this team shouldn't be better offensively 5 on 5, but seeing them win tight games isn't the worst thing, could possibly help come playoff time?

It's possible I guess, who knows. I just hope they figure it all out at some point and head into the playoffs firing on all cylinders.

 

[therealkoho]

I gave them an A-, only because it looks to me like they haven't really played up to their abilities yet!

It's hard to argue against 15 of 20 points, but they haven't really controlled games from start to finish, like they should be able to, and needless to say there are still question marks in the crease. A 3.01 and .892 doesn't fill me with confidence and if that doesn't drastically improve it might be another one and done for them and a few others in this organization.

The top two lines are dangerous but they haven't yet dominated for entire games and with that kind of talent they should be able to.

The D is the best it's been in a long time, but they still don't chew up opposing forwards in front of their own net and deep in their zone, and maybe it's the root cause of those numbers from Freddie

The supporting cast is above average and generally hold their own, they win enough battles, but still need to chip in more offense. Any prolonged slumps from the big boys and this team will lose more then they win if they don't get that secondary scoring.

Still waiting for Austin to really break out

 

[zeke]

Dzone start% - Ozone start%

(I.e. the higher the number the harder the zone usage)

Hyman +7.5%
Mikheyev +3.2%
Kerfoot +2.7%
Muzzin +1.4%

Spezza -1.1%
Holl -1.9%
Marner -2.1%
Dermott -2.4%
Simmonds -2.5%
Bogosian -2.7%
Matthews -3.3%
Rielly -4.0%
Brodie -4.2%
Vesey -4.8%
Tavares -7.6%
Engvall -10.4%
Nylander -10.9%
Lehtonen -11.6%
Barabanov -13.7%
Thornton -15.7%


2 things:

- Leafs as a team have a heavy heavy Ozone advantage, which is a solid indicator of very good possession by itself.

- only Muzzin the original checking line guys mikheyev-kerfoot-hyman start more in the defensive zone than the offensive zone, and thats more them just not getting Ozone starts at all rather than needing to be leaned on heavily for dzone starts

 

[Critical13]

Dzone start% - Ozone start%

(I.e. the higher the number the harder the zone usage)

Hyman +7.5%
Mikheyev +3.2%
Kerfoot +2.7%
Muzzin +1.4%

Spezza -1.1%
Holl -1.9%
Marner -2.1%
Dermott -2.4%
Simmonds -2.5%
Bogosian -2.7%
Matthews -3.3%
Rielly -4.0%
Brodie -4.2%
Vesey -4.8%
Tavares -7.6%
Engvall -10.4%
Nylander -10.9%
Lehtonen -11.6%
Barabanov -13.7%
Thornton -15.7%


2 things:

- Leafs as a team have a heavy heavy Ozone advantage, which is a solid indicator of very good possession by itself.

- only Muzzin the original checking line guys mikheyev-kerfoot-hyman start more in the defensive zone than the offensive zone, and thats more them just not getting Ozone starts at all rather than needing to be leaned on heavily for dzone starts

Those numbers are pretty damn impressive, bodes well for the team play overall.

@zeke the more I think about it, the more this matches up well with other stats + eye test. Keefe's system has been excellent at controlling the puck, we just need to generate more quality chances off of it.

Keefe's system is a breath of fresh air after the non-sense puck flip and chase strategy we used to employ.

 

[LeafsNation75]

The Maple Leafs ranked 7th and dropped one spot in this week's NHL.com Super 16 rankings.

Super 16: Lightning reclaim No. 1, Canadiens climb power rankings

7. Toronto Maple Leafs (7-2-1)
Total points: 138
Last week: No. 6

The Maple Leafs are 5-0-1 in one-goal games, winning their first five before losing 4-3 in overtime to the Edmonton Oilers on Saturday, when they came back from down 3-1. Toronto is 4-0-1 in its past five games. Auston Matthews has scored in each of the past five games he's played.

 

[cesareborgia]

B+

Would have went A- if we didn't take a nap during the Ottawa game, giving them their only W.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Darn i was holding down the only A+ vote for a while there. Do .750 next ten and I’ll give another A+
Way to go everyone that gave the A also. Very little wrong except they haven’t balanced taking their foot off the gas to much when leading.

 

[kk87]

We had 22 points when Babcock was fired last year, after 23 games. We would have to go 2-8-3 in our next 13 games to match the start we had last season.

All that to say, banking points early in the season is invaluable, no matter how you do it. It creates a lot more flexibility and breathing room to find your game and establish a clear identity. The team's been pretty underwhelming at 5v5 but it's clear that the stars (although they've been good) have another gear - Matthews especially should be taking over games more often than not once he really settles in. The D core looks better than it has in years (not elite, but definitely better), which is just about all you can ask for of this team. All in all, lots of positives, but lots of work ahead.

 

[LeafsNation75]

We had 22 points when Babcock was fired last year, after 23 games. We would have to go 2-8-3 in our next 13 games to match the start we had last season.

All that to say, banking points early in the season is invaluable, no matter how you do it. It creates a lot more flexibility and breathing room to find your game and establish a clear identity. The team's been pretty underwhelming at 5v5 but it's clear that the stars (although they've been good) have another gear - Matthews especially should be taking over games more often than not once he really settles in. The D core looks better than it has in years (not elite, but definitely better), which is just about all you can ask for of this team. All in all, lots of positives, but lots of work ahead.

Besides having 22 points at the time when Babcock was fired, the Leafs were also 5th in the Atlantic at that time behind the Panthers, Canadiens, and Sabres.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Besides having 22 points at the time when Babcock was fired, the Leafs were also 5th in the Atlantic at that time behind the Panthers, Canadiens, and Sabres.

If their behind 3 teams, wouldn’t that make them 4th.

 

[LeafsNation75]

If their behind 3 teams, wouldn’t that make them 4th.

Here was the standings on November 20, 2019 which was the day Mike Babcock got fired and shows Toronto 5th in the Atlantic with a 9-10-4 record and 22 points.

NHL Scores for November 20, 2019 | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[Golden_Jet]

Here was the standings on November 20, 2019 which was the day Mike Babcock got fired and shows Toronto 5th in the Atlantic with a 9-10-4 record and 22 points.

NHL Scores for November 20, 2019 | Hockey-Reference.com

Well you didn’t answer question, but ok then I was right , they were behind the 3 teams you listed plus the Bruins

 

[stickty111]

Here are the 2nd 5 game stretch stats among teams who played 4 games this time frame.
Record: 4-0-1

5 on 5
CF/60: 45.98(21st out of 26th)
CA/60: 58.1(19th out of 26th)
CF%: 44.18(24th out of 26th)

SCF/60: 23.98(13th out of 26th)
SCA/60: 28.18(22nd out of 26th)

HDCF/60: 10.14(11th out of 26th)
HDCA/60: 14.09(24th out of 26th)

xGF/60: 2.07(15th out of 26th)
xGA/60: 2.87(24th out of 26th)

SH%: 9.52(8th out of 28th)
SV%: .941(7th out of 28th)

So our offensive numbers weren't as bad as expected, but clearly way below where we should be. The regression came defensively so this needs to pick up. Hooefully with rest and more practice time gets us back to where need to be. Our 5 vs 5 play was clearly lacking and was covered up by good goaltending and shooting.


5 on 4 PP
CF/60: 102.43(9th out of 26th)
SCF/60: 78.33(1st out of 26th)
HDCF/60: 36.15(1st out of 26th)
xGF/60: 9.28(1st out of 26th)

SH%: 25.93(3rd out of 26th)

Our PP has been just fantastic. This is the 2nd stretch in a row where our PP has been great by almost every measure. Our SH% isn't by accident. When you set up this many chances, you should score a high amount. The split strategy is working at least for now.

4 on 5 PK
CA/60: 71.76(3rd out of 26th)
SCA/60: 55.02(21st out of 26th)
HDCA/60: 23.92(19th out of 26th)
xGA/60: 5.19(5th out of 26th)

SV%: 76.42(22nd out of 26th)

Reflection of our 5 vs 5 play defensively. Our shot quality is okay, but quality was too high all though not as bad as our 5 on 5 numbers. Needed better goaltending on the PK as well.

Here are the 3rd 5 game stretch stats among teams who played 4 games this time frame.
Record: 4-1-0

5 on 5
CF/60: 47.15(23rd out of 24th)
CA/60: 51.84(8th out of 24th)
CF%: 47.63(16th out of 24th)

SCF/60: 29.13(4th out of 24th)
SCA/60: 25.43(11th out of 24th)

HDCF/60: 12.84(2nd out of 24th)
HDCA/60: 8.89(8th out of 24th)

xGF/60: 2.72(1st out of 24th)
xGA/60: 2.13(11th out of 24th)

SH%: 14.15(2nd out of 24th)
SV%: .941(2nd out of 24th)

Great numbers across the board with significant improvement from the previous stretch. Our offensive play was a bit of a concern heading into it, but we played more like what we are capable here. I'd like more shots but if we generate chances at this rate, I'm not complaining.
It looks like the defensive slippage from the previous stretch was more fatigue. We were really good here. We shut things down well.
Combined with good goaltending, and execution of our chances, we had everything working here.


5 on 4 PP
CF/60: 72.96(20th out of 24th)
SCF/60: 52.83(9th out of 24th)
HDCF/60: 17.61(16th out of 24th)
xGF/60: 5.08(17th out of 24th)

SH%: 11.76(11th out of 24th)

Our PP took a tumble from best by a mile for 2 stretches to merely average in this stretch. The Simmonds injury probably had a lot to do with it. I want Keefe to stack the PP until he returns but with Thornton coming back, I don't think thats happening.


4 on 5 PK
CA/60: 84.47(12th out of 24th)
SCA/60: 40.78(6th out of 24th)
HDCA/60: 8.74(1st out of 24th)
xGA/60: 3.2(1st out of 24th)

SV%: 85.71(16th out of 24th)

This PK was more like what we saw under Keefe last year. Good to elite in every metric. Results % wasn't there though as a result of below average goaltending. This was a good sign in terms of process but we will have a better idea in the next stretch.

 

[stickty111]

Here are the 4th 5 game stretch stats among teams who played 4 games this time frame.
Record: 3-1-1

5 on 5
CF/60: 50.77(14th out of 19th)
CA/60: 59.07(19th out of 19th)
CF%: 46.22(18th out of 19th)

SCF/60: 28.4(4th out of 19th)
SCA/60: 30.92(18th out of 19th)

HDCF/60: 12.06(5th out of 19th)
HDCA/60: 9.55(9th out of 19th)

xGF/60: 2.49(4th out of 19th)
xGA/60: 2.09(9th out of 19th)

SH%: 10.74(3rd out of 19th)
SV%: .915(14th out of 19th)

So the good news is our offense is finally at the level it should be or close too. The bad news is our defensive play declined from the previous stretch but we were decent at limiting the higher quality chances. Even the expected goal stat says we were fine defensively. Overall not terrible but can be much better defensively. We got good shooting along with the elite offense which explains getting 7 out of 10 points. Needed better goaltending during this stretch.


5 on 4 PP
CF/60: 95.21(10th out of 19th)
SCF/60: 54.04(6th out of 19th)
HDCF/60: 18.01(10th out of 19th)
xGF/60: 6.86(9th out of 19th)

SH%: 21.05(4th out of 19th)

Thats better. After being average last stretch from being the best in the league by a mile for 2 stretches, it was above average to good this time. A Simmonds injury shouldn't cause this PP to tumble to average, so this was an improvement. Still not good enough but fine.


4 on 5 PK
CA/60: 67.42(3rd out of 19th)
SCA/60: 36.12(7th out of 19th)
HDCA/60: 14.45(7th out of 19th)
xGA/60: 4.62(5th out of 19th)

SV%: .895(7th out of 19th)

It took 10 games, but our PK looks to be back where it was last year under Keefe. Very good numbers across the board. For once, our goaltenders made saves too except for yesterday.

 

[stickty111]

Here are the 5th 5 game stretch stats among teams who played 4 games this time frame.
Record: 4-1-0. I adjusted for score effects since we lead for most of this stretch.

5 on 5
CF/60: 47.07(25th out of 29th)
CA/60: 51.98(13th out of 29th)
CF%: 47.52(21st out of 29th)

SCF/60: 25.62(10th out of 29th)
SCA/60: 22.01(9th out of 29th)

HDCF/60: 9.85(16th out of 29th)
HDCA/60: 8.4(8th out of 29th)

xGF/60: 2.29(9th out of 29th)
xGA/60: 1.91(7th out of 29th)

SH%: 8.86(14th out of 29th)
SV%: .967(2nd out of 29th)

Very good numbers across the board. We don't shoot a lot but thats not our goal. We generated chances at a good level and our defence was also top 10 in chance suppression. All 3 aspects in offense, defence and goaltending were clicking despite average finishing.


5 on 4 PP
CF/60: 109.87(6th out of 29th)
SCF/60: 74.1(3rd out of 29th)
HDCF/60: 30.66(8th out of 29th)
xGF/60: 8.79(5th out of 29th)

SH%: 16.67(12th out of 29th)

Excellent stuff here. Like I said before, a Simmonds injury shouldn't make our PP tumble as it did for one stretch, but we were back to where we should be in this stretch which started in the last stretch. One of the top teams in every metric here. Just need to finish better.


4 on 5 PK
CA/60: 53.18(1st out of 29th)
SCA/60: 31.91(3rd out of 29th)
HDCA/60: 5.32(2nd out of 29th)
xGA/60: 4.00(3rd out of 29th)

SV%: .833(18th out of 29th)

This is an elite PK. It had that one lull a couple stretches ago, but now it's at the level where it's been under Keefe since he took over. Our goaltending is ruining all the hard work of the PK though.