My entering this fray was to try to bring some reasoned and objective dialogue into what seemed like an emotional train wreck but I got run over by the train.
Yes for sure I am trying to find a dialogue and some semblance of middle ground here because I do not feel that the issue is as black and white as its been portrayed nor should it be as emotional as emotional business decisions typically turn out to be terrible decisions with far reaching consequences.
First let me say (again) that I totally get the frustration. I am frustrated as well and I think most Oiler fans are very frustrated with the year thus far. I get that the expedient thing to do is make someone responsible for the season by having them lose their job. And I get that Chiarelli is the main target in all of this frustration, moreso than the coach who can only coach the players given to him. I understand the concerns that "what if" he messes up another year (if you in fact think he has messed up this year). So yeah, I get it but much of this an emotional argument based on frustration, fear and worry. One has to step back and be calm and make a reasoned rational approach.
I will also say I am not drinking the Chiarelli kool-aid, a Chiarelli supporter or a Chiarelli Cheerleader. I merely have said multiple times, that as I get the fans frustration, I also get why Chiarelli did what he did and understand his rationale, or his long term plan of building a sustainable playoff team that can compete for the Stanley Cup under the constraints of the Salary Cap.
I also believe critical thinkers and intelligent people learn from mistakes of themselves and others. Chiarelli made some cap and trade mistakes in Boston but I believe good people learn from them and he does not want to be forced into a position of being at the cap ceiling to begin a year if he does not have to, and this is echoed by many GMs who did not spend to the cap this year, who normally have in the past. Cap space is taking on more and more importance as cap space gives a team flexibility to make short term decisions whereas without it your hands are tied and positions are forced. To say Chiarelli is not intelligent or will repeat his mistakes is again an emotional argument based on fear and speculation. Will he win every trade? Nope. You just expect that he will win more than he loses.
I look at the calling of the firing of Chiarelli through the lens of my pre-retirement profession which meant being patient with proven people who were paid a lot of money in sometimes difficult markets working a long term plan and making very tough decisions daily, and that if I had a dollar for every rumour, innuendo and false set of circumstances I heard, I could buy the Oilers from Katz. We want to believe as fans we read twitter, the papers (if anyone actually reads them anymore), hearing from insiders and bloggers on multiple media sources daily, that we know what is going on in the league or have a pretty good semblance of what goes on, who is worth what, who is offered for trade, etc, but the reality is we as fans don't have a clue.
The insiders like McKenzie and Friedman (who most consider the best in the league) have said many times that what they know and report on is a mere fraction of what goes on and much of their job involves speculation. So when we say we could have signed this guy to a lower term or traded for that guy or this player would have done this on our team if he was still here, has no basis in fact and is again, an emotional speculative argument. For me those discussions are worthless as they literally add nothing tangible to the discussion and are merely matters of opinion. Who is right? Who is wrong? Who knows? Time will tell or in most cases of speculative discussion time will never tell because it will never happen.
Chiarellis job involves making very tough decisions that impact the short and long term of the team / business. Long term means planning ahead and working the plan with flexibility, scalability and reasoned adjustability to circumstances that are within and beyond ones control which flows into the short term. He is building a team for long term viability and playoff sustainability within the confines of restrictive salary limitations while having the best person under his employ in Connor McDavid. The Oilers have never had to be too concerned about the cap cieling before, and while having the games best player. As Pittsburgh, Chicago and LA will tell you, it is not easy to afford having superstars. Really tough decisions have to be made, and often that comes with the wrath of the fans, angry about their favourite player being traded off for futures or weaker assets. That is the reality of the salary cap and welcome to it. There will be many more of those tough decisions ahead, hence Chiarellis publicly saying we must be able to grow from within and manage the cap. That is our reality.
Chiarelli was given a 5 year contract, the norm for a GM. The reason is that a body of work by a GM is long term and requires time to see if the team is moving in the direction planned. Is 2.5 years enough time? To frustrated fans it is already too long. Again I get the sentiment but do not believe that it is long enough to judge the team. The end of this season at the bare minimum is required to properly and reasonable evaluate the team and the performance of the coach, GM, scouts, and other management positions throughout the organization. If a decision is made at years end, rather than mid season, a much larger crop of candidates is available to interview whereas it is far more difficult in season. Most teams will not let you speak to their employees in season. So right there alone waiting till seasons end is the reasoned approach for not firing him now.
In my opinion, 3 years is not long enough to effectively judge the breadth of an NHL GMs work. 4 years is required because of the long term nature of player development in addition to how holes are filled in the organization under cap constraints, with both internal contracts and extensions to signing of free agents this offseason, and then seeing how the season plays itself out. I totally understand many fans do not want to hear this after being told to be patient with a host of players who never had team success here and are worried about the future "what ifs". But the beauty of "what if" is it cuts both ways. As well this season is far from over. After the 4th year we have allowed some if his draft picks and young players who were here before him to develop, new players to acclimatize another year, chemistry to build, and the team to move the dial forward. So unless this team goes full Arizona, I see no need to fire this GM before the 4th year, one who has the track record, experience and brought a cup and a competitive team to Boston and I believe a better cap manager today than he was yesterday.
Anyway I could go on for 20 more paragraphs but here is some bullet points as not why I "like" Chiarelli, but why he should be given every opportunity to move ahead with his long term plan for the duration of his contract, unless again the team regresses in the 4th year.
1.
What we were: Prior to Chiarelli we had a one dimensional soft team that was the literal laughing stock of the league. Those teams were one dimensional, uncompetitive and soft, built by people with zero experience in building hockey teams.
2.
Who we hired: Bob Nicholson is Peter Chiarelli's boss. Bob is a proven winner with Hockey Canada, an organization that has been successful taking the long term approach to player development with hockey in Canada. Bob has worked with Peter before. Bobs talent is identifying winning hockey talent at the managerial level and letting them manage. There is more than one set of eyes on the prize, not just Peters and I cant think of many better people than Bob Nicholson.
3.
Experience counts: Chiarelli has the track record, the Cup and the experience in this league in the cap era. If I am going somewhere, I want someone who has been there before and knows how to do get there. Some may say it is not important. I have done it both ways in my professional life. I believe you need someone on your team with that experience. Obviously Bob Nicholson thought so as well and stated as much in his hiring presser.
4.
The old core: The previous regime publicly stated they would not trade the "core". That core was RNH, Hall, Eberle, Yakupov and Schultz. A Centre, 3 wingers and an offensive D. The team was weak everywhere in particular on defence and in goal. Any NHL GM with experience will tell you that you always build from the Goalie and D out. Wingers are the last thing you need and are easy to get. We did it the opposite way and preached patience with our youth. Our team paid the price of this historically disastrous rebuild and several of those players paid the price by losing confidence in their games and themselves.
5.
The new core: The new core has been contractually identified as McDavid, Draisatl, RNH, Lucic, Larson, Klefbom and I believe you will be able to add Nurse to that equation at the end of the year. 3 C, 3D and 1 cup winning W who brings intangibles this team sorely lacks. Defence. Centre. And Talbot in goal although I am not sure he can be considered "core" as his is a shorter term contract. But he's a damn good goalie.
6.
Trades.
Yakupov and Schultz - We traded those players for little return because that is what they were worth on the market at that time. If they were worth more we would have gotten more, because that is how a market works. 1 of those players was rehabilitated by another team, something we could not do because the player no longer could work out here in this market. He was booed mercilessly by fans whenever he touched the puck and both players and management said it was seriously affecting him personally and professionally (paraphrasing of course) Another player is on his 3rd team and a regular healthy scratch. Not even Vegas took a gamble on him for free.
Hall - The Taylor Hall trade was to do two things. 1 open up space to sign someone like Lucic and 2 to get in a defensively minded defenceman. The results last year spoke for themselves. But it left a bitter taste in the mouths of many fans and advanced stats aficionados. This group of angry fans today are using the teams awful start this year to scream "I Told You So" and demand retribution for "terrible signings and trades" by calling for Chiarelli to be fired. It was and remains so controversial to Oiler fans that moderators now forbid the discussion of the trade. I am on the side that the trade was a necessary evil, am happy with it. Full disclosure, I was never a huge Taylor Hall fan and wish him well in Jersey. However what he does there now is irrelevant to the Oilers of today but it should be stated that their GM had to have a heart to heart with Hall and let him know his performance last year was unacceptable.
Eberle - By his own admission, regained his confidence and playing well offensively with the Islanders. At the time his worth here was questionable based upon his performance in the playoffs and season in which, by his own admission, not my opinion or yours, he struggled. He is paid a big ticket. If Chiarelli waits, and the player plays poorly again he is going into the last year of his ELC and worth perhaps even less. Either way it was a calculated risk to lose his offence, which in the playoffs was non existent and his defensive game was costing teams games. Like Hall in Jersey, what he does with the NYI is irrelevant to the Oilers of today. Will Strome be Eberle, nope. But he wasn't meant to be either. Is it a loss. Probably but a necessary evil however I am not willing to judge Strome till I see him in games that matter, the playoffs.
Reinhart - Yup a bad trade. A really bad trade. But now suddenly Barzal and Beauvillier were ex Oilers? Did I miss a meeting?
7.
Cap Space & Contracts. Here is where it gets contentious with the Fire Chia crowd because most of his signings are considered bad ones. Russell and Lucic are the shining examples of "down the road". An NHL GM worries about down the road, down the road. Not today. If those players help you win now you sign them now, and if the market says a 4x4 or 6x8 you do it. And if you look at the players signing contracts when these players were signed, they are comparable to the market, whether you like advanced stats or not. In fact I posted a long list of D signings that are comparable to Russells earlier. (That was completely ignored by the way in the conversation here btw) That is the market and contracts are always moveable. Do you want all players on long term contracts with restrictive trade clauses, of course not but we dont have that and with our youth and cap restrictions we will not have that. As for the cap space created by today, with all due respect most of what I have read in this thread from the fire-Chiarelli crowd, they do not understand the cap or its workings.
The cap has been misquoted as being $7M, 12M and 33M and how it can be used is also misunderstood. We had little cap space, $5M if we did not want to use bonus overage into next year which Chiarelli said we will avoid. We were open to a very serious offer sheet threat on Draisatl, whether fans want to believe it would not have happened is irrelevant. Chiarelli had to ensure that would not happen and to do that he needed cap space. This cap space went unused because by his admission there was nobody worthwhile signing in the off season to that kind of money and 1 year term, and that we can use the space more effectively to round out the roster in season closer to the deadline. That is completely justifiable and makes perfect sense to me.
8
. Internal Progression. We have had some injuries and sickness that has caused regression and had some players play regress this year, both out of Chiarellis control. Players were expected to progress and we are now seeing it with JP. It has allowed us to run with 3C and now that JP is improving along with the Camelleri trade and bumps with Kassian and Khairas performance, the teams performance has improved dramatically. This lends itself to patience. If the progression continues the rest of the year then the internal progression among some players will have been successful and with others not. Not all players develop in a straight line and some will go back. Players are finding their games now, let it play itself out and make adjustments at the end of the year in the off season as needed and as cap space allows. Could he have done more, maybe. But not a fireable offence in my opinion. The team doesn't rise and fall on bottom 6 players. The lack of a quality NHL backup however, thats puzzling for me especially when the coach did not seem to trust LB when Talbot was struggling badly.
9.
Speculative signings This is worthless conversation as it assumes the fan knows who was available for what. To criticize the GM on speculation is worthless commentary in my opinion. We could have traded Eberle for much more this season. Sorry but nobody can speak with that certainty, least of all fans of the game, who are as far removed from NHL GM offices as anyone as to who we could have signed outside of free agents and that list was painfully thin.
10.
Patience This is the four letter word that gets the most heated reaction. But it is necessary and warranted. Impatience for the short term satisfaction of "holding someone accountable" can result in an even worse situation developing, something that this fan base should know by now. The what ifs, the fear of the unknown, has to be put aside for patience to see if the person Bob Nicholson hired can execute the plan approved by upper management and ownership.
I dont really want to continue on beyond this as I really do not have much more to say and believe that I will only hear more of the same from the same posters.
It is patently obvious that starting with the Taylor Hall trade to the Eberle trade to our current standings that this fan base is irrevocably and possibly permanently divided into two camps. I am in the Patience camp whatever camp happens to be. If after 4 years we have regressed behind Year 2, then fine, its not working and we move on. But it wont be the doom and gloom others fear it may be if we wait 1 more year.
Thats it, thats all, thanks for listening
@harpoon.