Proposal: Fire DJ Smith

[HoweHullOrr]

He sucks, probably bottom 5 in salary and he's still overpaid.

Deep analysis.

 

[God Says No]

Imagine if Darryl Sutter was our coach. We would be guaranteed to be a playoff team.

That's why I wanted a defensive coach like Martin who was in the running before DJ was hired.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Team Stats Breakdown

Stat	Home	League Rank	Away	League Rank
Record	19-13-3	17	15-18-2	24
GF	124	6	94	27
GA	106	17	122	23
PP%	26.5	6	20.7	15
PK%	81.2	12	84	T3
FOW%	53.4	8	49.5	16
RW	16	T9	11	23
ROW	18	T13	14	T21

When you go from +18 GD at home to -28 GD on the road, you know there's something there beyond just coaching. The split stats for players don't look great either. For example, Stutzle goes from 1.47 p/g at home to 0.88 p/g on the road. Is that all a result of coaching? Not likely. It's really emblematic of young teams finding their way. Even the goaltending split stats are ridiculous. Forsberg, atrocious on the road but pretty good at home. Talbot, roughly the same at home and on the road. To me, that speaks to experience, where one guy has been doing it a long time and the other guy is still learning how to be a starter in the NHL.

Is coaching partly to blame? 100% they can do better, especially at improving 5on5 play. But let's stop pretending coaching is the only issue at hand here. Injuries and inexperience have played larger roles than anyone is willing to admit. And while it might be time for this team to find a new voice behind the bench, I don't think it's strictly because DJ has been as bad as he's been scapegoated to be.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Team Stats Breakdown

Stat	Home	League Rank	Away	League Rank
Record	19-13-3	17	15-18-2	24
GF	124	6	94	27
GA	106	17	122	23
PP%	26.5	6	20.7	15
PK%	81.2	12	84	T3
FOW%	53.4	8	49.5	16
RW	16	T9	11	23
ROW	18	T13	14	T21

When you go from +18 GD at home to -28 GD on the road, you know there's something there beyond just coaching. The split stats for players don't look great either. For example, Stutzle goes from 1.47 p/g at home to 0.88 p/g on the road. Is that all a result of coaching? Not likely. It's really emblematic of young teams finding their way. Even the goaltending split stats are ridiculous. Forsberg, atrocious on the road but pretty good at home. Talbot, roughly the same at home and on the road. To me, that speaks to experience, where one guy has been doing it a long time and the other guy is still learning how to be a starter in the NHL.

Is coaching partly to blame? 100% they can do better, especially at improving 5on5 play. But let's stop pretending coaching is the only issue at hand here. Injuries and inexperience have played larger roles than anyone is willing to admit. And while it might be time for this team to find a new voice behind the bench, I don't think it's strictly because DJ has been as bad as he's been scapegoated to be.

I’m sure you’ll notice most teams are worse on the road.

 

[BankStreetParade]

I’m sure you’ll notice most teams are worse on the road.

It's not as much as you think.

23 teams have a .500 or better P% at home.
20 teams have a .500 or better P% on the road.

Of the 10 youngest teams in the league this year, including Ottawa, only 3 teams have .500 or better P% on the road.

 

[Golden_Jet]

It's not as much as you think.

23 teams have a .500 or better P% at home.
20 teams have a .500 or better P% on the road.

Of the 10 youngest teams in the league this year, including Ottawa, only 3 teams have .500 or better P% on the road.

More referring to the other 7 stats you listed. That you failed to mention in rebuttal.

Don’t care about points percentages
Just won loss differential, so half the teams are below 500.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Imagine if Darryl Sutter was our coach. We would be guaranteed to be a playoff team.

Lol, or the kids would have tuned “the dinosaur” out. I’m not sure why anyone would look at Calgary and think that THAT is a team that has it all together.

I know the Sens won last night but they got dominated. If this is what fans expected - to be in the bottom 10 of the NHL all season and then when you somehow get within striking distance of a playoff spot getting absolutely dominated by lesser teams - I can’t even believe people think this is good coaching.

And yet, we also dominate teams. It’s hockey, both happen to every team at times. It’s all about finding ways to win no matter who is dominating the play

Which we did.

This has been a tough season for you.

 

[Sens Vader]

I will be really excited to see this team under a new coach.

Big task by new ownership to find the right fit, DJ ain't it.

 

[GCK]

That's why I wanted a defensive coach like Martin who was in the running before DJ was hired.

I guess you missed the irony of the Flames current standings.

 

[Micklebot]

More referring to the other 7 stats you listed. That you failed to mention in rebuttal.

Don’t care about points percentages
Just won loss differential, so half the teams are below 500.

The real question is should the discrepancy between home and away generally be that big though.

So, for example, we have the 2nd biggest gap between Home and road GF/g and 7th biggest gap for goals against. Combined, our gap is 3rd worst in terms of performing worse on the road. We seem to struggle on the road more than most teams.

Now, is that a coaching issue, a talent issue, random luck? Idk. I don't see much of a correlation with performance, SJ seems to do better on the road and is a terrible team.

One might argue performing well at home is the result of the coach having more control with last change, and therefore a stronger home record is a reflection of good choices made by a coach when they have more influence. Alternatively you could argue a poor road team is one where the coach can't adapt to not having his desired matchups,

 

[Cosmix]

Team Stats Breakdown

Stat	Home	League Rank	Away	League Rank
Record	19-13-3	17	15-18-2	24
GF	124	6	94	27
GA	106	17	122	23
PP%	26.5	6	20.7	15
PK%	81.2	12	84	T3
FOW%	53.4	8	49.5	16
RW	16	T9	11	23
ROW	18	T13	14	T21

When you go from +18 GD at home to -28 GD on the road, you know there's something there beyond just coaching. The split stats for players don't look great either. For example, Stutzle goes from 1.47 p/g at home to 0.88 p/g on the road. Is that all a result of coaching? Not likely. It's really emblematic of young teams finding their way. Even the goaltending split stats are ridiculous. Forsberg, atrocious on the road but pretty good at home. Talbot, roughly the same at home and on the road. To me, that speaks to experience, where one guy has been doing it a long time and the other guy is still learning how to be a starter in the NHL.

Is coaching partly to blame? 100% they can do better, especially at improving 5on5 play. But let's stop pretending coaching is the only issue at hand here. Injuries and inexperience have played larger roles than anyone is willing to admit. And while it might be time for this team to find a new voice behind the bench, I don't think it's strictly because DJ has been as bad as he's been scapegoated to be.

I agree that coaching is not the only issue. Part of the "On the Road" drop in play is due to other team's having the advantage of last line changes so they can match up their lines against our lines. Also being on the road is more tiring than playing at home due to travel.

 

[SpezDispenser]

I don't know if it's Smith that's to blame entirely, but no team with Chychrun, Chabot, Zub, Sanderson, Tkachuk, Stutzle, Batherson, DBC, Giroux should ever be hemmed into their zone like they were for long stretches. Just...no thank you.

 

[SensHulk]

I don't know if it's Smith that's to blame entirely, but no team with Chychrun, Chabot, Zub, Sanderson, Tkachuk, Stutzle, Batherson, DBC, Giroux should ever be hemmed into their zone like they were for long stretches. Just...no thank you.

That had to be the game plan, usually dictated by the coach. So much dump and chase, weird line matching and combos, just an awful game all around. We just conceded so much ice to them…

Conversely, see how Pittsburgh played. That forecheck was relentless, ottawa looked like they had no time and space.

There just can’t be any way DJ returns next season….Dorion just needs to get it through his dumb brain

 

[Gil Gunderson]

So when we were outshooting Toronto 30-10 but losing 2-1 that was...???

I don't think we're outplaying them that badly if they weren't playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and on a back-to-back. They've also pretty much solidified their spot in the standings while we treated it as a must-win.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Conversely, see how Pittsburgh played. That forecheck was relentless, ottawa looked like they had no time and space.

There just can’t be any way DJ returns next season….Dorion just needs to get it through his dumb brain

Ya Reminded us , of the Sens game vs the leafs last game eh?
Sens relentless on for forecheck.

 

[Loach]

Team Stats Breakdown

Stat	Home	League Rank	Away	League Rank
Record	19-13-3	17	15-18-2	24
GF	124	6	94	27
GA	106	17	122	23
PP%	26.5	6	20.7	15
PK%	81.2	12	84	T3
FOW%	53.4	8	49.5	16
RW	16	T9	11	23
ROW	18	T13	14	T21

When you go from +18 GD at home to -28 GD on the road, you know there's something there beyond just coaching. The split stats for players don't look great either. For example, Stutzle goes from 1.47 p/g at home to 0.88 p/g on the road. Is that all a result of coaching? Not likely. It's really emblematic of young teams finding their way. Even the goaltending split stats are ridiculous. Forsberg, atrocious on the road but pretty good at home. Talbot, roughly the same at home and on the road. To me, that speaks to experience, where one guy has been doing it a long time and the other guy is still learning how to be a starter in the NHL.

Is coaching partly to blame? 100% they can do better, especially at improving 5on5 play. But let's stop pretending coaching is the only issue at hand here. Injuries and inexperience have played larger roles than anyone is willing to admit. And while it might be time for this team to find a new voice behind the bench, I don't think it's strictly because DJ has been as bad as he's been scapegoated to be.

Could this have to do with depth? Without having the benefits of home ice, 3rd and 4th lines get exposed and the top 2 lines get suffocated? The home and away thing has been going on for awhile and I can't figure it out. Would shuffling the lines, spreading it over 3 lines create more? I'm stumped, because it seems like they try and play the same on the road as they do at home. It confuses me, but many things do....like what's up with gravity?

 

[God Says No]

I guess you missed the irony of the Flames current standings.

I guess, but that's exactly the last missing component of this team. Playing sound D. Martin would have been perfect.

 

[bert]

Team Stats Breakdown

Stat	Home	League Rank	Away	League Rank
Record	19-13-3	17	15-18-2	24
GF	124	6	94	27
GA	106	17	122	23
PP%	26.5	6	20.7	15
PK%	81.2	12	84	T3
FOW%	53.4	8	49.5	16
RW	16	T9	11	23
ROW	18	T13	14	T21

When you go from +18 GD at home to -28 GD on the road, you know there's something there beyond just coaching. The split stats for players don't look great either. For example, Stutzle goes from 1.47 p/g at home to 0.88 p/g on the road. Is that all a result of coaching? Not likely. It's really emblematic of young teams finding their way. Even the goaltending split stats are ridiculous. Forsberg, atrocious on the road but pretty good at home. Talbot, roughly the same at home and on the road. To me, that speaks to experience, where one guy has been doing it a long time and the other guy is still learning how to be a starter in the NHL.

Is coaching partly to blame? 100% they can do better, especially at improving 5on5 play. But let's stop pretending coaching is the only issue at hand here. Injuries and inexperience have played larger roles than anyone is willing to admit. And while it might be time for this team to find a new voice behind the bench, I don't think it's strictly because DJ has been as bad as he's been scapegoated to be.

Good post, I agree. Its a cop out to simply blame the coach. The players bear a responsibility too. The team has its most success when they play with emotion. Its alot harder to play with emotion on the road when you dont have the crowd to pick you up.

It does speak to the team not having very good structure. Teams with good structure that can play robotic hockey are typically the best road teams. But it does show that this team knows how to play well they do it at home. That's execution on the players end. Basically both the players and coachs deserve the blame.

Could this have to do with depth? Without having the benefits of home ice, 3rd and 4th lines get exposed and the top 2 lines get suffocated? The home and away thing has been going on for awhile and I can't figure it out. Would shuffling the lines, spreading it over 3 lines create more? I'm stumped, because it seems like they try and play the same on the road as they do at home. It confuses me, but many things do....like what's up with gravity?

This too, so the GM is ultimately to blame.

 

[Loach]

Good post, I agree. Its a cop out to simply blame the coach. The players bear a responsibility too. The team has its most success when they play with emotion. Its alot harder to play with emotion on the road when you dont have the crowd to pick you up.

It does speak to the team not having very good structure. Teams with good structure that can play robotic hockey are typically the best road teams. But it does show that this team knows how to play well they do it at home. That's execution on the players end. Basically both the players and coachs deserve the blame.


This too, so the GM is ultimately to blame.

It seems like a death by a thousand paper cut...

 

[DueDiligence]

So when we were outshooting Toronto 30-10 but losing 2-1 that was...???

I saw a stat where Ottawa had 20 shots from beyond the circles and the Leafs had 2. Shots closer in were 32 to 27 ( approx) High quality chances were not much different.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I saw a stat where Ottawa had 20 shots from beyond the circles and the Leafs had 2. Shots closer in were 32 to 27 ( approx) High quality chances were not much different.

Ottawa had an about 50% more HDCF , depending if talking 5 on 5 , even strength or all strengths.
CF was about 64 -36% Ottawa depending same criteria again.
That’s Off the top of my head after checking postgame.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Could this have to do with depth? Without having the benefits of home ice, 3rd and 4th lines get exposed and the top 2 lines get suffocated? The home and away thing has been going on for awhile and I can't figure it out. Would shuffling the lines, spreading it over 3 lines create more? I'm stumped, because it seems like they try and play the same on the road as they do at home. It confuses me, but many things do....like what's up with gravity?

Depth is definitely a factor and I've been saying it all year, our bottom 6 absolutely kills us. They just don't get much done and the coaching/management haven't found any combination that really works with the personnel we have. Certainly an area that needs substantial improvement in the offseason. With that said, I still think inexperience plays a larger role. You can't emulate adversity in practice. You can't coach adaptability on a white board. Guys like Stutzle have to learn how to do it by going out and doing it.

Despite all of that, is there anyone on here who genuinely believes we wouldn't be a playoff team, today, if Norris hadn't been lost for the whole season right out of the gate? We're probably 8-10 points better with him.

Either way though, I think they're going to look for a new voice behind the bench. If you consider the quality of our 5v5 play alone, you would assume a change has to be made. We've been a mediocre to bad 5v5 team for a few seasons and that just can't be the case if you're going to be a championship calibre team.

 

[Micklebot]

I saw a stat where Ottawa had 20 shots from beyond the circles and the Leafs had 2. Shots closer in were 32 to 27 ( approx) High quality chances were not much different.

Using the natural statrick metrics

All strengths
HDCF 23 Sens, 16 Leafs
xGF 5.43 sens, 3.26 leafs

5v5
HDCF 16 Sens, 10 Leafs
xGF 3.97 sens, 1.9 leafs

Seems like maybe you were reading some leafer propaganda...

 

[Golden_Jet]

Regarding depth issue, sometimes I like going with pairs, to make 3 lines, would be helpful on the road maybe, but probably can’t switch between road and away all the time.

Using the natural statrick metrics

All strengths
HDCF 23 Sens, 16 Leafs
xGF 5.43 sens, 3.26 leafs

5v5
HDCF 16 Sens, 10 Leafs
xGF 3.97 sens, 1.9 leafs

Seems like maybe you were reading some leafer propaganda...

Nice, posted similar a little higher up, off of memory though, didn’t go back and check.

Not a lot of fact checking seems to take place on the boards.

 

[BankStreetParade]

I saw a stat where Ottawa had 20 shots from beyond the circles and the Leafs had 2. Shots closer in were 32 to 27 ( approx) High quality chances were not much different.

I don't understand why shots from beyond the circles are less valuable? We have defensemen who can really shoot the puck and you can generate a ton of rebound or tipped goals by opening shot lanes for blueliners. I look at those charts and see a team that possessed the puck a ton and generated offense from everywhere on the ice. Kind of looks like what you would hope a high quality offense would do.