Proposal: Fire DJ Smith

[trentmccleary]

I think you're selling the 2004 team short

Hossa was 5th, Alfredsson was 7th Havlat 22nd, in scoring, all well ahead of Tkachuk (27th) and Giroux (31st). Stü (20th) was ahead of Havlat though.

Spezza''s 55 pts was 47th in the league, well ahead of DeBrincat (63rd) or Batherson (80th)

What Phillips was considered prior to 2001 is irrelevant when comparing talent on the 2004 team vs today's. Phillips was considered a top defensive Dman by that point, he played on team Canada during the lockout immediately following that season

Redden was 13 the in scoring by a D, Chara was 18th, Chabot is 26th and Chychrun 36th.

Yes, DJ has 5 of the top-70 scoring forwards instead of the 2 average that other teams would have and he has 3 of the top-55 scoring d-men, including 2 of the top-30... and he can't make the playoffs with that team.

The 1999 Senators that DaveMatthew referred to had 2 forwards in the top-70 with similar producing defensemen. They were 3rd overall in the NHL that year.

 

[coladin]

I clearly knew what you meant. Ruff is a veteran coach that is capable of adapting because he has experience. The sens dont play with enough structure to consistently win on the road and certain players arent being held accountable and are not performing to the best of their abilities. Jerseys advanced metrics were actually very good last year. They had a league worst save percentage. They added some important pieces. But this is only Ruffs third year with the team. This is DJ's fourth sometimes the message wears thin.

Accountability is a big one for me. In my opinion, DJ’s primary failure in trying to balance coddling the new style NHL player, and combining it with consequences for repeating mistakes pointed out by the coaching staff

 

[slamigo]

And the thing is, when Claude Julien walks into that room, they will be like pupils listening to the professor. They know he has won a Stanley Cup. Coached hundreds of games in an original six city. A thousand, even?

He would be my choice, and I think the kids on this team are at the perfect age for a legendary coach. Because no matter how you cut it, when DJ says stop cheating…they aren’t listening.

I think is the best post I've seen about why we need a new coach. The core players are elite. Providing them with an elite coach who has experience would demonstrate to them that this is the level that this team is at. It would send a signal that school is over and now it's the big time.
Nobody anywhere in the league considers DJ an elite coach. Nobody.

 

[LevelingSolo]

Define success. He made the playoffs half the time. Been fired plenty. A Stanley Cup Final in his second coaching year.

Lindy has coached those young players three years. Did his coaching style/tactic/structure/philosophy change?

Or did the young group simply mature with age and experience

That's still a good resume, every coach get's fired at some point

One this is certain the Devils actually got some ok goaltending this season, some people say the addition of Andrew Brunette but I really don't know how much impact an assistant coach can have

Brunette would actually be another interesting candidate here

 

[Micklebot]

Yes, DJ has 5 of the top-70 scoring forwards instead of the 2 average that other teams would have and he has 3 of the top-55 scoring d-men, including 2 of the top-30... and he can't make the playoffs with that team.

The 1999 Senators that DaveMatthew referred to had 2 forwards in the top-70 with similar producing defensemen. They were 3rd overall in the NHL that year.

The 99 sens are irrelevant, you suggested Martin never had the talent DJ has, he clearly had a significantly better roster in 04, take the loss and move on. Nobody has denied Martin was a better coach, the 99 team certainly overached which is why Martin won the jack Adams that year.

 

[Micklebot]

Define success. He made the playoffs half the time. Been fired plenty. A Stanley Cup Final in his second coaching year.

Lindy has coached those young players three years. Did his coaching style/tactic/structure/philosophy change?

Or did the young group simply mature with age and experience

They changed goalies and went from the 2nd worst sv% in the league to top 10 and added a top 4 D.

Goaltending here has been pretty inconsistent but at 18th in the league, it is bad but not 2022 NJD bad.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Agreed,

Seems like rose coloured glasses when you say that we match the talent of three HHOF players along with Spezza, Havlat Redden ect. Not sure why you omitted Chara btw.

HHOF takes an entire player's career into account. It doesn't really factor into this conversation. There's no guarantee that any of our players today have careers as good as Alfredsson or Hossa. I'm not saying that. But that doesn't matter.

I'm comparing Tim Stützle today to Marian Hossa in 02/03. The gap is not big. Hossa scored 45 goals and 80 points in 80 games that year. A great season. Stützle is currently pacing for 44 goals and 95 pts in 82 games. An even better season.

Daniel Alfredsson scored 27 goals and 78 points in 78 games. Tkachuk is pacing for 33 goals and 82 points in 82 games. You think there's a big gap?

Same thing for Debrincat vs Havlat or Chabot vs Redden. Compare them at a specific point in time. Not their entire career.

You're right about Chara though. We have no one near as good/unique right now as Chara was in 02/03.

The biggest difference, though, is that the 02/03 team was incredibly well-coached and had been perfecting its system for 4 years. They all bought in. And every year, they got a little bit better at the details. A little more consistent.

This team hasn't done that. We're a pond hockey team that wins games because we have a ton of natural offensive skill that shows up on the PP. When it doesn't? We have nothing to fall back on.

If you took this team's talent and brought in a Jacques Martin-level attention to detail, we'd be a playoff team.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Joel Queneville, plus we have his nephew now in Belleville.

 

[Micklebot]

HHOF takes an entire player's career into account. It doesn't really factor into this conversation. There's no guarantee that any of our players today have careers as good as Alfredsson or Hossa. I'm not saying that. But that doesn't matter.

Well they clearly aren't playing to those players levels at the time, but them being HOF players speaks to it not being a fluke season, these were elite players at the time and over their careers

I'm comparing Tim Stützle today to Marian Hossa in 02/03. The gap is not big. Hossa scored 45 goals and 80 points in 80 games that year. A great season. Stützle is currently pacing for 44 goals and 95 pts in 82 games. An even better season.

Good grief man, not sure why you've flipped to 03 vice 04, but in 04 Hossa was 5th in league scoring that year and 6th in goalsa premier two way winger, in 03 he was 14th in pts and 4th in goals. Stü is 20th in pts and 14th in goals. So, no, not a better season when you account for the era or defensive play.

Daniel Alfredsson scored 27 goals and 78 points in 78 games. Tkachuk is pacing for 33 goals and 82 points in 82 games. You think there's a big gap?

Again, not accounting for this being a different era.

Same thing for Debrincat vs Havlat or Chabot vs Redden. Compare them at a specific point in time. Not their entire career.

And again...

You're right about Chara though. We have no one near as good/unique right now as Chara was in 02/03.

The biggest difference, though, is that the 02/03 team was incredibly well-coached and had been perfecting its system for 4 years. They all bought in. And every year, they got a little bit better at the details. A little more consistent.

They (both the 03-04 and 02-03 teams) were certainly better coached, but again, also more talented.

This team hasn't done that. We're a pond hockey team that wins games because we have a ton of natural offensive skill that shows up on the PP. When it doesn't? We have nothing to fall back on.

Martin's teams were able to be some of the best offensive teams in the league while running a stuffing defense first system because they were so deep and extremely talented. It's more than just coaching.

If you took this team's talent and brought in a Jacques Martin-level attention to detail, we'd be a playoff team.

Perhaps, this team needs to mature and get experience first imo, and particularly they need it down the middle.

Smolinski, Bonk, White, Fisher and a young Spezza along with rookie Vermette just gave us exceptional depth at center allowing us to deal with injuries. We lost Norris and everything fell apart because our 2nd line center had 22 career games, and our first line center had about 40 games playing as a center.

The teams just aren't comparable. 04 had better top end talent and significantly more depth.

 

[trentmccleary]

The 99 sens are irrelevant, you suggested Martin never had the talent DJ has, he clearly had a significantly better roster in 04, take the loss and move on. Nobody has denied Martin was a better coach, the 99 team certainly overached which is why Martin won the jack Adams that year.

The only losses that are happening here are the ones that DJ is coaching. Jacques Martin was handed a trash team and took it to the playoffs for 8 straight seasons. DJ Smith was given a lot of leeway his first two seasons, but he had expectations these past two and hasn't come close to fulfilling them. 4 straight seasons missing the playoffs is a spectacular failure. He should have been fired in November. Why the hell would anybody want to give him another chance to fail again?

 

[Micklebot]

The only losses that are happening here are the ones that DJ is coaching. Jacques Martin was handed a trash team and took it to the playoffs for 8 straight seasons. DJ Smith was given a lot of leeway his first two seasons, but he had expectations these past two and hasn't come close to fulfilling them. 4 straight seasons missing the playoffs is a spectacular failure. He should have been fired in November. Why the hell would anybody want to give him another chance to fail again?

I see you've decided to deflect and change the subject rather than simply admit you overstated the talent of the current roster.

 

[trentmccleary]

I see you've decided to deflect and change the subject rather than simply admit you overstated the talent of the current roster.

What coach in the history of the NHL has coached for 4 full seasons, all well outside of the making the playoffs, and been brought back for a 5th season?

 

[Micklebot]

What coach in the history of the NHL has coached for 4 full seasons, all well outside of the making the playoffs, and been brought back for a 5th season?

This has what exactly to do with your false claim that Martin never had the talent of the current team?

 

[trentmccleary]

This has what exactly to do with your false claim that Martin never had the talent of the current team?

 

[Micklebot]

Emojis are a fun way to admit you were wrong, I assume that's what you're finally doing...

 

[trentmccleary]

Emojis are a fun way to admit you were wrong, I assume that's what you're finally doing...

You barely proved that the Senators may have been more talented in one of the 8 seasons Jacques Martin coached them into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the fact that the team is being coached by an incompetent buffoon has completely escaped your attention. So I'm not sure what you're celebrating. It certainly isn't wins.

 

[BankStreetParade]

I can't wait for a new head coach. Hoping for an actual NHL head coach, seems like we haven't hired one since Murray (Boucher had a little NHL experience but the true NHL coach to hire at that time would've been Boudreau).

Teams so often benefit from a leadership change at the coaching position. Edmonton was floundering last season until the coaching change helped them get to the Conference Finals. Twice Pittsburgh has won Cups during a season in which they fired their coach. Toronto bringing in Keefe elevated their play. Even Vancouver has looked a lot better under Tocchet so far.

Boston is a great example. Twice they have fired coaches who were highly respected (Julien and Cassidy). Both times the team got better after the new coach came in.

Even in Ottawa, we found initial success with Clouston, MacLean, Cameron and Boucher.

I hope they land a coach with a longer shelf life than those guys, but I just think a new voice will be enough to at least get more success for the short term.

I don't care that the players like Smith. Patrick Kane once cried over Denis Savard being fired but it ended up being the right move.

Maybe Berube will be fired by the Blues.

I'm not sure the first paragraph of your post is in line with the rest of it.

Woodcroft in Edmonton is a first time head coach.
Bylsma in 2009 with Pittsburgh was a first time head coach.
Sullivan went almost 10 years between HC gigs before 2015 with Pittsburgh.
Keefe in Toronto is a first time head coach.
Cassidy in Boston went almost 15 years between HC gigs.
Clouston, MacLean and Cameron were all first time HCs.

Additionally, guys like Cooper, Bednar and Brind'amour are all first time HCs who have found a ton of success.

 

[Micklebot]

You barely proved that the Senators may have been more talented in one of the 8 seasons Jacques Martin coached them into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the fact that the team is being coached by an incompetent buffoon has completely escaped your attention. So I'm not sure what you're celebrating. It certainly isn't wins.

Lol, dubbing down on being very wrong...

I've made my opinion on DJ pretty clear thoughout this thread, I'm not debating that it's time to move on,

What I took issue with was your claim about the quality of our current roster, it reaks of blind homerism. When you misguidedly think this roster stacks up with some of the best rosters this team has had, and make no mistake, the 03-04 roster was one of our best, well your going to think the coach must be terrible. Problem is you've completely whiffed on your evaluation of the roster which taints any evaluation of the coach since you're starting from a position of unreasonable expectations.

Does that mean I think DJ is great, absolutely not, he's mediocre to average. He makes some avoidable mistakes and tends to take too long find a way to adapt when things aren't working, but he does some things well too. He's built a pretty good culture, as well as had some success with special teams that I'm not sure we've seen before.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

One thing I see mentioned here is that we're better than last year.

I'm not so sure about that. One factor here is Bedard. Several teams are actively tanking here the same way teams did in McDavid's draft year. That really skews the standings and the difference between the haves and have nots in the league. When you have half a dozen teams trying to lose (not on the ice obviously, but constructed to lose), that really changes the dynamics of the league.

Now, of course, we also have to factor in losing our (young and inexperienced and not fully cemented in) 1C for most of the year. And losing Zub for parts of the season, who was a rock on the blueline last year.

Question is, how exactly do we factor those things in when evaluating this team?

 

[DaveMatthew]

Again, not accounting for this being a different era.

And again...

Even if you adjust for era, Stützle is having a better goal-scoring season than Hossa had in 03/04, based on Adjusted Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com.

Hossa's adjusted totals (per 82 games): 32 goals
Stützle's adjusted totals (per 82 games): 40 goals

I won't do assists or all players, because I don't want to do all the math.

Fun fact, 22/23 is pacing to be a lower-scoring season than 03/04. The distribution is just different. There's more high-end players today, and a smaller middle. But overall, teams are scoring fewer goals.

But the point still stands. Yes, the 03/04 Senators were a significantly better team than the 22/23 Senators. They had players who were better, overall, over the course of 82 games. No question. But did they have significantly more talent? No.

Your point of including Todd White makes my point. Todd White was that team's 2nd line center. He was undrafted and undersized. But he was able to contribute to winning in a big role, because he was put in positions to succeed on a team with top-notch habits and attention to detail. He played better than Shane Pinto is this season. But you know what? Shane Pinto is a more talented hockey player than Todd White ever was.

So why is this team much worse? Some of it is experience, yes. Some of it is personnel on defense. Some of it is injuries. Some of it is strength of competition (it'll be harder to make the playoffs in the East this year than it would've been in 03/04). But a lot of it is coaching.

Do I think DJ Smith could turn a player like Todd White into a contributing, top 6 player, today? Not a chance. Do I think he could help mould a former goon into a Norris trophy contender? Definitely not. He's not a teacher. He's not a strategist. He's a likeable, rah rah motivator. And that's not an insult. JM could have used some of his skills, but DJ definitely could use some of JMs.

Jacques Martin was very much like Jacques Lemaire. There was a floor to how bad the team could be. Even if we had suffered a ton of injuries, we could grind out 2-1 games. In games where the puck wasn't bouncing our way, we could tread water and hang on. That's not the case with this version of the Senators. If our skill has an off night, we give up 12 odd-man rushes and get blown out 5-0.

And if you look at the first ~82 games after JM took over, it's incredible how fast we went from dumpster fire defensively to above league average. Even with a super young roster in 96-97. It just took a bit for the offense to catch up. Today the inverse is true.

 

[Ice-Tray]

When you accept low expectations, especially in sports, you will never win.

Yeah, not really into taking set serving pro sports “winning” advice from dude on his couch watching other people playing pro sports.

It’s all good though, you can continue to be bitter and cynical about the team, you don’t need to make excuses to me, or try and downplay my perspective.

I accept you.

 

[Ice-Tray]

The only losses that are happening here are the ones that DJ is coaching. Jacques Martin was handed a trash team and took it to the playoffs for 8 straight seasons. DJ Smith was given a lot of leeway his first two seasons, but he had expectations these past two and hasn't come close to fulfilling them. 4 straight seasons missing the playoffs is a spectacular failure. He should have been fired in November. Why the hell would anybody want to give him another chance to fail again?

I will say that JM’s D coaching was at a time where there was a lot more defenders could do, and goalie equipment was bigger.

The man hasn’t been a head coach in forever, and perhaps there is a reason. Playing defensive oriented hockey may not work without being able to clutch, grab, cross check, and lay brutal hits.

Most teams are looking to possess the puck as their greatest defence.

 

[DueDiligence]

Yeah, not really into taking set serving pro sports “winning” advice from dude on his couch watching other people playing pro sports.

It’s all good though, you can continue to be bitter and cynical about the team, you don’t need to make excuses to me, or try and downplay my perspective.

I accept you.

"Bitter and cynical" ??? You are taking this far too seriously buddy. I enjoy my sports then I get over them....quickly. I'd like the Senators to do well and win but if they don't it has no effect on my life. You seem to take a more casual view that winning is secondary and you watch for the love of the game. Great . Then you shouldn't have any need to analyse other people and make personal remarks. So why do it?

 

[Ice-Tray]

"Bitter and cynical" ??? You are taking this far too seriously buddy. I enjoy my sports then I get over them....quickly. I'd like the Senators to do well and win but if they don't it has no effect on my life. You seem to take a more casual view that winning is secondary and you watch for the love of the game. Great . Then you shouldn't have any need to analyse other people and make personal remarks. So why do it?

Well we do seem the be having this back and forth where I’m the guy will low expectations, happy with a loser, and you’re the guy holding the line….

I figured it made sense for me to tweak the story line so that I’m the laid back happy guy, and you’re the bitter cynic.

You’ve been firing barbs the whole time at me, but hey, if you feel that I have have gone to far or personal, then I apologize for that.

As for your assessment, you sound like you’re describing me, when you’re describing you. Winning isn’t secondary, but I’m all about context and present circumstance. Making a leap from bottom feeder to playoff team is not a realistic expectation for this team, which is why exactly nobody predicted that at the start of the season, except for some people in here I guess.

I understand that things take time, and development happens in due course. I like winning.

 

[Micklebot]

Even if you adjust for era, Stützle is having a better goal-scoring season than Hossa had in 03/04, based on Adjusted Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com.

Hossa's adjusted totals (per 82 games): 32 goals
Stützle's adjusted totals (per 82 games): 40 goals

Hossa's adjusted g for 03-04 is 42 goals not 32, and that was for 81 games,

Fun fact, 22/23 is pacing to be a lower-scoring season than 03/04. The distribution is just different. There's more high-end players today, and a smaller middle.

I won't do assists or all players, because I don't want to do all the math.

Look where they rank relative to their piers, that's a better guide that league wide since depth scoring being better doesn't mean the top end was worse.

But the point still stands. The 03/04 Senators were a significantly better team than the 22/23 Senators. They had players who were better, overall, over the course of 82 games. No question. But did they have significantly more talent? No.

Yes, they were, the depth was significantly better, the top end was significantly better, we played a defense first system and had the talent to score anyways as oppose to the current iteration which is constantly cheating for offense Jensen the terrible defensive play.

Your point of including Todd White makes my point. Todd White was that team's 2nd line center. He was undrafted and undersized. But he was able to contribute to winning in a big role, because he was put in positions to succeed on a team with top-notch habits and attention to detail. He played better than Shane Pinto is this season. But you know what? Shane Pinto is a more talented hockey player than Todd White ever was.

Our current 2nd line center is Pinto who's struggled mightily in the role, he will likely become a better player than white but he certainly isn't already. In 03-04, White played a solid if unspectacular two way game. He was part of the depth that allowed them to weather injuries, not their top end talent. White put up 60 pts the year prior and produced at a higher rate than Pinto has. When you start aging Pinto is more talented even he wasn't yet a better hockey player, it kind of loses the narrative, the original argument was implying Martin had more to work with and therefore must have been a better coach since the roster was at worst equal.

So why is this team much worse? Some of it is experience, yes. Some of it is strength of competition in the East this year (it'll be harder to make the playoffs in the East this year than it would've been in 03/04). But a lot of it is coaching.

Lack of depth, lack of experience, not as talented at the top end, and yes a worse coach. It's pretty much everything

Do I think DJ Smith could turn a player like Todd White into a contributing, top 6 player, today? Not a chance in hell.

I think your underating Todd White as a player, which given some of your other takes isn't surprising. White went on to have similar success in Minnesota the very next season before injuries and age caught up with him.