Proposal: Fire DJ Smith

Should the Sens fire DJ Smith?


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boxbox

Registered User
Sep 8, 2022
303
186
Except that's not reflected in scoring chance data on the pk, all teams have that same Main objective on the PK so if we were good systemically on the PK it should be reflected somewhere beyond just the sv%,

We have the 7th highest xGA/60 on the PK, 9th highest HDCA/60 and 7th highest SCA/60, none of those are good numbers but we have the 11 the best GA/60,

I'm not seeing how you can presume our PK is systemically driven when nothing that removes goaltending from the equation suggests as much. In fact, the opposite is true, all the stats say the PK should be bad if not for goaltending
Our goalies until recently were near the bottom of the league in save %, yet our PK was ranked in the top third in the league. Generally it is said "the goalie is the best penalty killer" and I don't disagree with that because the goalie is the last thing standing between the puck and the net. I do agree with your take that if goaltending were to be removed from a good PK the PK should suffer. Like with most things there are exemptions to everything and I do believe that our PK would be even better if we had consistent goaltending. The Senators are like 5 penalties off from being a top 5 penalized team in the league...so if the team does spend a lot of time on the PK and the goalie is a difference maker as you suggest well then you can't have a near bottom of the league save % for majority of the season because the solid numbers from the PK would certainly bump them up. Also the same goalie is in nets 5 on 5 as is on the PK, yes not all players kill penalties but the structure does change as Ive said before; goal is to prevent the team from scoring. I am not sure who runs the PK units and who runs the game structure but something then doesn't add up; how can you be good at killing penalties and not be able to defend 5 on 5 ? again only constant is the goalie.
 

boxbox

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Sep 8, 2022
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Being outshot isn't the relevant issue, shots allowed is. We allow the 13th most shots per game in the league, how many times we shoot on the opposition has no bearing on our goalies workload
Senators are actually in 22nd place league wide in shots allowed and about 10 shots from being in the top 10 in the league for shots per team. Logic would suggest a team with a high shot count does spend more time on offense unless they literally shoot from anywhere. The more time you spend one offense the less time is spent on defense and thus technically the less work the goalie should have. This also brings me to my previous point of the Sens being a highly penalized team. A team that spends a lot of time on the PK would normally face a higher shot count, a high SA count and a good PK would should be backed by very good goalie stats otherwise the PK would not be in the top third. Well then how are the Sens top 10 in the league in fewest shots allowed, close to top 10 in the league for shots for, have a top 3 PP, have a PK that hovers in the top third yet somehow our goalies have been (until recently) near the bottom of the league in team save% ?
 

boxbox

Registered User
Sep 8, 2022
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You're coming in with the assumption that it's the goalie not the defense that caused those sv%, maybe it is, maybe it isn't. I won't deny Talbot had a bad stretch, the question is why, I think part of it is we just aren't a consistent defensive team, that doesn't mean Talbot is great or played great, but it acknowledges the problem isn't just one thing.
A goalie can make a bad defense look good at the same time make a good defense look bad. Sound familiar ? Our goaltending summed up. I have never said our defense is great or that they don't deserve some of the blame. Its a young group still and mistakes come with growth. Ive also said multiple times that we don't need our goalies to be standing on their heads. Talbot was signed because of his experience and consistency through out his career; he has not delivered that so far. I do take into consideration he is on a new team and a young team but so far he has been all over the place with his play. That is something you expect from a rookie not a NHL proven starting goalie.
 

boxbox

Registered User
Sep 8, 2022
303
186
I mean, there's three games that fits those thresholds. Is that too many, sure, was the D the problem in those games? I'd have to go back and watch them. The reality is we've had some pretty catastrophic breakdowns in our end this year, I'm not willing to absolve the Defensive effort because I've watched them play, they have had some attrocious habits and left the goalies hung out to dry on more than one occasion, and that's not the norm with other teams.

You say the game is mental, and i absolutely agree, but that impacts the goalie too, when you have no idea what to expect in front of you it can be a daunting task.
The issue is the way those games play out. Its either he'll let in 2 goals on 51 shots or 4 on 20. If it happened once I get it; all goalies have bad games but when its almost a set pattern then you betcha it has an negative effect on any defense. Follow any team closely and you will see defensive breakdowns and mistakes being made. Talbot more of then not has not helped at all. If he played anywhere close to what would appear as consistent it would have changed the outcome of a fair amount of close games so far this season in the Sens favor. At the end a few more wins and fewer loses will be the difference between making or not making the playoffs.

Of course the defense plays a part on the goalies mental state, won't argue with that. But that is an argument a young unproven goalie can use as an excuse for poor play. As I have said Talbot is a proven NHL starter hes played on good and not so good teams, he has the experience. Our defense is young and no one was expecting grand things from them. He knew what he was signing up for. This defense isn't as bad as many believe. Or the coaches as clueless as some make them up to be. Last year the Sens were 20 shots off from being in the top 5 for most shots against so far this season they are hovering near the leagues bottom third; that is mostly achieved by playing better team defense and spending more time on offense. Our PP went from 20th to 2nd in the league; yes new additions helped, but at the end of the day the coaching picks the players and how its run. Our PK has slightly improved; I believe if it wasnt for our inconsistent goaltending it would be ranked better, our goal DIFF is better yet the only thing thats gotten worse is the SV%. If the team improves in every major category which the goalies do not directly impact yet the ones they do GAA, SV% either remain the same or get worse then how can you mainly blame the defense and coaching ?
 

swiftwin

★SUMMER.OF.STEVE★
Jul 26, 2005
24,246
13,961
I think this was super interesting:


@3:09 DJ says they thoroughly scout opposing teams and their goaltenders incase we need to go to the shootout, which helps DJ decide which of out shooters match up well against their goalie

@10:25 Stutzle also says he knew exactly which move he was going to do because the coaching staff told him where their goalie is weak.

I don't think I've ever head of this kind of preparation before. Very very thorough.
 
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Micklebot

Moderator
Apr 27, 2010
57,113
34,863
I think this was super interesting:


@3:09 DJ says they thoroughly scout opposing teams and their goaltenders incase we need to go to the shootout, which helps DJ decide which of out shooters match up well against their goalie

@10:25 Stutzle also says he knew exactly which move he was going to do because the coaching staff told him where their goalie is weak.

I don't think I've ever head of this kind of preparation before. Very very thorough.

That's seems normal to me, though maybe not specifically for the shootout, but in general teams will identify goalies strengths and weaknesses. It's why teams always tried the wraparound on Anderson, why everyone shoots glove side on Murray, why they'd try to get Bishop moving laterally,why you try to keep the puck away from guys like Brodeur, Turco or Price, but want to put it somewhere the goalie would have to play it with Hasek, Anderson, ect.
 

Sens Vader

Registered User
Jan 23, 2016
7,496
5,334
I think this was super interesting:


@3:09 DJ says they thoroughly scout opposing teams and their goaltenders incase we need to go to the shootout, which helps DJ decide which of out shooters match up well against their goalie

@10:25 Stutzle also says he knew exactly which move he was going to do because the coaching staff told him where their goalie is weak.

I don't think I've ever head of this kind of preparation before. Very very thorough.


I think thats very common, but more important for Payne to be right.

Pretty cool that Timmy knew exactly where he was gonna shoot. I liked Bathersons goal too, that was slick
 

swiftwin

★SUMMER.OF.STEVE★
Jul 26, 2005
24,246
13,961
That's seems normal to me, though maybe not specifically for the shootout, but in general teams will identify goalies strengths and weaknesses. It's why teams always tried the wraparound on Anderson, why everyone shoots glove side on Murray, why they'd try to get Bishop moving laterally,why you try to keep the puck away from guys like Brodeur, Turco or Price, but want to put it somewhere the goalie would have to play it with Hasek, Anderson, ect.
For sure, I have definitely heard of scouting of opposing goalies for games. But I've never heard of a coach telling a player where to shoot right before a shootout.
 

aragorn

Do The Right Thing
Aug 8, 2004
29,286
9,994
I think this was super interesting:


@3:09 DJ says they thoroughly scout opposing teams and their goaltenders incase we need to go to the shootout, which helps DJ decide which of out shooters match up well against their goalie

@10:25 Stutzle also says he knew exactly which move he was going to do because the coaching staff told him where their goalie is weak.

I don't think I've ever head of this kind of preparation before. Very very thorough.

WOW ... good coaching ... I bet that surprises a lot of people. :laugh:
 

Micklebot

Moderator
Apr 27, 2010
57,113
34,863
For sure, I have definitely heard of scouting of opposing goalies for games. But I've never heard of a coach telling a player where to shoot right before a shootout.
That's not exactly what he said, Stü said he talked to Pain who told him what he was thinking, that could be something along the lines of this guy has a weak glove, or he drops early if you take the shot, or he'll try to give you the 5 hole and close it fast so don't fall for that,

It all just comes down to scouting the goalie and telling the shooter what their tendencies are, I doubt pain is telling him to do the Forsberg move, or pull this move, more likely something like he tends to lose his angles when you come in from the side, or he struggles if you come in with speed
 

Ice-Tray

Registered User
Jan 31, 2006
16,623
8,537
Victoria
Lol, not going to argue against change on the bench at all…. But holy f*** to we have a few players that are making terrible decisions with the puck constantly.

They don’t get the Zaitsev treatment, but they are making worse choices than the HFSens whipping boy on the regular.
 

Filatov2Kovalev2Bonk

Effortless sexy.
Jul 13, 2006
12,801
1,124
Cumberland
He will go when we have new ownership. Brad Smyth can wave the pom-poms all night to protect him but he's been this team's coach long enough, and with these players long enough, to have them execute when down, when tied, when up by one, when up by two, etc. It is an absolute travesty that we have such a promising young core yet we can't play with any time of consistency. Hockey is pretty much rote on the nice. If Smith isn't the big problem then let's get him some help: a proven defenceman coach and a proven goalie coach and a proven powerplay coach...but not sure this team can even do that right now as I expect all management expenses are frozen until the new owner comes in.
 

Ice-Tray

Registered User
Jan 31, 2006
16,623
8,537
Victoria
He will go when we have new ownership. Brad Smyth can wave the pom-poms all night to protect him but he's been this team's coach long enough, and with these players long enough, to have them execute when down, when tied, when up by one, when up by two, etc. It is an absolute travesty that we have such a promising young core yet we can't play with any time of consistency. Hockey is pretty much rote on the nice. If Smith isn't the big problem then let's get him some help: a proven defenceman coach and a proven goalie coach and a proven powerplay coach...but not sure this team can even do that right now as I expect all management expenses are frozen until the new owner comes in.
Well, I mean I think the power play is doing reasonably well.
 

Tuna99

Registered User
Sep 26, 2009
15,993
7,934
When this is all done the positives are DJ can write a very comprehensive book on how to lose NHL hockey games
 

Tuna99

Registered User
Sep 26, 2009
15,993
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DJ turned Nikita Zaitsev into Nikita Zaitsev

DJ is turning Thomas Chabot into Nikita Zaitsev
 

Tuna99

Registered User
Sep 26, 2009
15,993
7,934
Would love an experienced coach for once, or at least someone with some history of winning.

How about a bunch of people who really really really want a Stanley Cup like we currently have? Do they have to be experienced or proven winners or is being fun at a BBQ enough?
 
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