Player Discussion Filip Gustavsson

[Spurgeon]

21 games left in the season and he's at 26 starts, right? Unless Dean really starts to lean on him down the stretch, which I don't see happening, how does he finish with any more than 38 starts? He'll probably get some 4th and 5th place votes for sure. I don't see him finishing top three in this scenario.

Chalk it up to Guerin being a great GM I guess. Recognized he needed an upgrade on a Talbot/Fleury tandem, personally scouted and developed Gus into a Vezina caliber guy and had the genius foresight to instruct Dean to start him in less than half the teams games to keep the extension cost low. Manager of the century.

Oh I thought he was at 28 games started, but that’s probably including games Fleury was pulled.

Nonetheless, I don’t think a 2/1 split is outlandish if he continues to play this way, which would get him to 40 GS. Although it is Dean, so maybe he sticks with a 50/50 split. I just think they need to ride Gus down the stretch here with how tight things are.

When your competition has played 20-30 games more? Not likely IMO

The fact that Gus has close to the same GSAA as guys with 20 games more than him is a testament to how crazy good he’s been this year. I just can’t see them discrediting that performance if it continues. Gus and Kap are the only reason this team is in a playoff spot right now.

 

[AKL]

Oh I thought he was at 28 games started, but that’s probably including games Fleury was pulled.

Nonetheless, I don’t think a 2/1 split is outlandish if he continues to play this way, which would get him to 40 GS. Although it is Dean, so maybe he sticks with a 50/50 split. I just think they need to ride Gus down the stretch here with how tight things are.

Yeah I definitely don't think it's outlandish, I just don't think Dean does it.

I have an unfounded conspiracy theory that I've been thinking about for a while. If they're not trying to keep Gus' workload down to keep his next contract cheaper, I'm wondering if part of it is that they're trying to help Fleury move up the all time leaderboards. He's 13 regular season wins off tying Roy for 2nd most all time, 54 GP off tying Roy for 3rd most games played, he's currently tied with Fuhr for 3rd most playoff wins.

 

[HobeyBroten]

Sure hope GMBG is in constant extension communication with his agent.

 

[Wabit]

Oh I thought he was at 28 games started, but that’s probably including games Fleury was pulled.

Nonetheless, I don’t think a 2/1 split is outlandish if he continues to play this way, which would get him to 40 GS. Although it is Dean, so maybe he sticks with a 50/50 split. I just think they need to ride Gus down the stretch here with how tight things are.


The fact that Gus has close to the same GSAA as guys with 20 games more than him is a testament to how crazy good he’s been this year. I just can’t see them discrediting that performance if it continues. Gus and Kap are the only reason this team is in a playoff spot right now.

Gus has 26 starts so far. 21 games left, so most possible start is 47.
8 of them are back-to-backs, so 50/50 split for those. Most possible stats is 43.
MAF start the VAN game tonight. Most possible starts is 42.
12 normal games left. Gus needs to start 10 of those to get to 40 starts.

I think the team is going to run them in a 1:1 tandem the rest of the way. The same thing they did last year with Talbot/MAF. The schedule is setup to be a 1:1 split until the 20th of this month.

 

[Digitalbooya]

 

[Wabit]

Orlov's stat line for the week is just crazy considering his career high is 35p.

 

[NHL1674]

Orlov's stat line for the week is just crazy considering his career high is 35p.

Why did we trade him again?

 

[Wabit]

Why did we trade him again?

So we could get Nyquist.

 

[ThatGuy22]

Where it gets really intersting is if Gus passes Ulmark.... Since Jan 1st Ulmark has been playing at .936 and Gus at .945, charging up the leaderboard.

Ullmark still probably gets the Vezina due to more starts, but how would they deny him a finalist spot.

 

[57special]

I hope Gus isn’t so successful that he prices himself out of signing here. I can see him looking down the road at Wallstedt possibly taking over here, as well as the $ restrictions that we have over the next two years, and being difficult to sign, though I understand we have some control. Worse case scenario is that we trade him for a good return, I guess, and cobble something together for a year.

If he continues to be great next year, then Guerin can decide to move Wallstedt, and keep Gus, though there is something to be said for keeping both and playing them 40-50 games (playoffs) year.

 

[Wasted Talent]

Funny how Gustavsson's current season is almost identical to Harding's run 9 years ago

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

The wisest thing any goaltender can do is sign up to play for this team, free massive stat boost, he can take a two year deal and then either try to cash in with us or make bank from someone else, I think it would be foolish to give up the opportunity he has with Fleury as mentor on the tail end of his career and an obvious starter opening on a top 2 defensive team.

 

[Spurgeon]

Funny how Gustavsson's current season is almost identical to Harding's run 9 years ago

Instead of Harding vs. wall, we now have Gustavsson vs. Wallstedt

 

[pfunk]

As much as I am enjoying the Gus Bus ride, I think this offseason might be an opportunity to move him as a package with other assets for a higher end center prospect or established young C with upside (e.g. Byfield). If you trust that Wallstedt is gonna be the goalie that we think he can be, and you can transition him in for the 2024-2025 season with a solid defensive group in front of him, you might have to take a gamble and try to sell high on a guy like Gus. Question is whether other teams will value him high enough to make a gamble like that, considering the limited number of games he has played.

 

[Spurgeon]

As much as I am enjoying the Gus Bus ride, I think this offseason might be an opportunity to move him as a package with other assets for a higher end center prospect or established young C with upside (e.g. Byfield). If you trust that Wallstedt is gonna be the goalie that we think he can be, and you can transition him in for the 2024-2025 season with a solid defensive group in front of him, you might have to take a gamble and try to sell high on a guy like Gus. Question is whether other teams will value him high enough to make a gamble like that, considering the limited number of games he has played.

It all comes down to his contract ask. This is a guy that has not made a lot of money in his career. I think there’s two routes he’s going to go this offseason:

1. Signing a long-term deal in the range of 6 x $3.33M-$4M, which locks in a guaranteed $20M-$24M

2. Signing a 2-year bridge and gambling on himself getting a big UFA deal.

If he’d sign a deal like (1), I’d sign him. It’s a contract that wouldn’t kill this team if he underperforms, but has tremendous upside if he plays anything like he currently is.

If he wants to go with option 2, I’d trade him if we’re able to get anywhere near the value we got in the Fiala trade (1st + prospect)

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I think 2 x $3M should be good enough for both sides at this juncture, unless we can do something with Fleury.

 

[Spurgeon]

I think 2 x $3M should be good enough for both sides at this juncture, unless we can do something with Fleury.

The problem I have with the bridge is Wallstedt.

The dead cap comes off the books, Wallstedt needs a RFA contract and Gus is a UFA. If Gus is a .920-.930 goalie over those two years, what do you do? At that point; you need to pay him $7-8M or potentially even more to afford him. You’re also not going to be able to get anything for him in a trade because you’re going to want him on your roster for those 2 years.

There’s much more upside and cost certainty to going long-term with him IMO. Having both of them as a tandem for 5 or 6 years @ a total cost that is <$7M could play a huge role in us winning a Cup.

 

[AKL]

The problem I have with the bridge is Wallstedt.

The dead cap comes off the books, Wallstedt needs a RFA contract and Gus is a UFA. If Gus is a .920-.930 goalie over those two years, what do you do? At that point; you need to pay him $7-8M or potentially even more to afford him. You’re also not going to be able to get anything for him in a trade because you’re going to want him on your roster for those 2 years.

There’s much more upside and cost certainty to going long-term with him IMO. Having both of them as a tandem for 5 or 6 years @ a total cost that is <$7M could play a huge role in us winning a Cup.

I say give him 1x3M. Takes him through 2023-24. Zuccarello, Foligno, Fleury and Goligoski will come off the books that summer. In theory some of the prospects will be on the roster for 2024-25, and the cap may even increase, so you might be able to stomach more for a goalie that season. But if you don't want to give him money next summer, he's still an RFA and you can trade his rights somewhere else.

Obviously getting him signed 4-6 years for 3-4M is highly preferable for us to almost any other scenario, but I don't see why he does that.

 

[Spurgeon]

I say give him 1x3M. Takes him through 2023-24. Zuccarello, Foligno, Fleury and Goligoski will come off the books that summer. In theory some of the prospects will be on the roster for 2024-25, and the cap may even increase, so you might be able to stomach more for a goalie that season. But if you don't want to give him money next summer, he's still an RFA and you can trade his rights somewhere else.

Obviously getting him signed 4-6 years for 3-4M is highly preferable for us to almost any other scenario, but I don't see why he does that.

Ah yeah, didn’t consider a 1 year bridge, which would be reasonable too. Could definitely see that being the way things go.

Only reason I think he’d do a long-term deal is because of how much past history there are of goalies getting hot for a season and then never coming close to recreating anything like that. Andrew Hammond is sort of an example. Had an insane end to the 14-15 season, signed a 3 year bridge at a $1.35M AAV, then never played anywhere near that level.

Gus has made <$2M in his career to this point, getting to guarantee 10x that amount is something that would be hard to turn down if I was in his shoes. A 6 year deal would take him to 31 years old, which is still plenty young enough to cash in on a bigger deal too.

 

[f7ben]

Ah yeah, didn’t consider a 1 year bridge, which would be reasonable too. Could definitely see that being the way things go.

Only reason I think he’d do a long-term deal is because of how much past history there are of goalies getting hot for a season and then never coming close to recreating anything like that. Andrew Hammond is sort of an example. Had an insane end to the 14-15 season, signed a 3 year bridge at a $1.35M AAV, then never played anywhere near that level.

Gus has made <$2M in his career to this point, getting to guarantee 10x that amount is something that would be hard to turn down if I was in his shoes. A 6 year deal would take him to 31 years old, which is still plenty young enough to cash in on a bigger deal too.

Totally agree with this from his perspective. He’s on an absolute heater and maybe this is who he is. But 20-25 million is life changing money and he would hopefully see it that way.

 

[Wabit]

Bridge deal is all I'd give him. Too small of a sample size and not enough cap space to commit long term.

 

[f7ben]

Bridge deal is all I'd give him. Too small of a sample size and not enough cap space to commit long term.

What about 5x3?

 

[Wabit]

What about 5x3?

$5m is way too much.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

3 x $4M would probably be the tops (Oettinger contract).

 

[f7ben]

$5m is way too much.

5 years , 3 million