Value of: Filip Forsberg to the Canucks?

[Peter Griffin]

The canucks absolutely trade a 1st two drafts from now for a player who's top 10 in goals and top 15 in points.

I think the poster was referring to the idea that the Canucks trade Lekkerimaki and Willander for Forsberg.

 

[Cogburn]

A first this year, a first next year, and. if the Preds want. a roster player would be where I'd start. I can't say that's a strong offer either, but we need our ELC guys coming up. However, I don't expect Nashville to want to move Forsberg, he's not ancient, scoring at a great pace, and is signed long term for a decent cap hit. No manager or team is looking at the end of his contract at this stage,

That being said, I don't think Vancouver needs Forsberg, and the OPs offers are incredibly out of touch.

Nashville shouldn't move him, Vancouver shouldn't be interested in the cost that would be needed to wedge him out of his team, and, yeah, the original proposals are hilariously off base.

 

[beardawg]

the OP offer with Kuzmenko is closer to Forsberg's value than this is. No one is giving 2 A level prospects + 1st let alone addign to that for him. You could easily flip Kuzmenko for a 2nd or a 1st with 50% ret next year. 2 1sts and a 2nd is not too far off Forsberg's value.


Miller was considered negative value by basically this entire board before the start of this season and likely even now half this board prob still thinks that. He's only 1 year older than Forsberg.

JT Miller has averaged 95 points per 82 games over the last 3 seasons including this one. He makes 500K less at 8M. He also plays the more vital position being a center.
Over there careers, Forsberg avgs 6 more points per 82 games.

Forsberg's value is likely around 2 1sts + 2nd + 3rd if you're going based off pick value.

So Forsberg returns what Tanner Jeannot got?

 

[Canuck Luck]

Ok, but Nashville has 3 2nds this year and two firsts next year. So picks don't make sense if we even did want to move him.

I never said the deal made sense for Nashville. All I've said is that pick value wise, his value would be around 2 x 1st + 2nd + 3rd, not the 3+ 1sts another poster was saying.

If the Canucks have two "A-level" prospects, I'm not aware of it. The overwhelming majority of teams do not, and most teams' "two best" are closer to B level than A level. So two "B" prospects and a late first and a capdump is still not enough in my opinion to grab a near or over PPG two way winger signed long term to a reasonable cap hit.

And by the way, 2 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd has more value than both of the offers originally presented, which is what I responded to.

I'd agree to disagree here. A level and overwhelming majority are arbitrary. To me, A level prospects are prospects that majority of people say have top 4 or top 6 or starter goalie potential. Overwhelming majority would be 22/32 teams. I think theres more than 10 teams that have 2 prospects in their systems they expect to be top 6/top 4/starters in the future.

I've said the 2 1sts + 2nd + 3rd is more than the OP offered but thanks for letting me know something I've already stated.

Idk, 2 very good prospects are still very much a mystery box. Forsberg is an elite winger.

You'll be lucky if one of those players approaches Forsberg's on ice impact one day.

Thats not to say it makes sense for the Canucks, or the Preds to do that trade

Hi captain obvious. Every prospect/pick is a mystery box and yes its slim chances any prospect or pick accomplishes what the player they were traded for has. The most recent trade was Tatar for a 5th. The odds of that 5th being able to play 1 game in the NHL are lower than the impact Tatar has already had for Seattle in 6 games.

Hell even players are mystery boxes. You think Calgary expected the Huberdeau they are getting? What about New Jersey with Meier.

These mystery draft picks are the biggest commodity in the league.

 

[jackjohnson]

Hahahaha a late 1st, a 3rd rounder and a cap dump for one of the best first line scorers in the league.

Start with 1st, Willander and Lekkerimaki. Even that might not be enough to convince Nashville unless they’re going into full tear down mode.

Garland isnt a cap dump tho. He is a very good player

 

[canadianmagpie]

Not a chance. 31 other teams line up with much more substantial offers

31? What is Nashville offering?

 

[Dfence033]

I never said the deal made sense for Nashville. All I've said is that pick value wise, his value would be around 2 x 1st + 2nd + 3rd, not the 3+ 1sts another poster was saying.

I'd agree to disagree here. A level and overwhelming majority are arbitrary. To me, A level prospects are prospects that majority of people say have top 4 or top 6 or starter goalie potential. Overwhelming majority would be 22/32 teams. I think theres more than 10 teams that have 2 prospects in their systems they expect to be top 6/top 4/starters in the future.

I've said the 2 1sts + 2nd + 3rd is more than the OP offered but thanks for letting me know something I've already stated.

Hi captain obvious. Every prospect/pick is a mystery box and yes its slim chances any prospect or pick accomplishes what Forsberg has. Hell even players are mystery boxes. You think Calgary expected the Huberdeau they are getting? What about New Jersey with Meier.

Teams still rebuild and trade their stars for these mystery boxes and the main currency teams want in trades are those mystery draft picks.

We definitely disagree on "A-level" then. If 22 teams have 2 players that qualify, that's a LOT of "A's" being handed out.

I place "A-level" at top line, top pair, or high end starter with a pretty high likelihood of meeting it. A prospect like Nemec, Michkov, Smith, or Gauthier.

And if Vancouver doesn't have even one of those (a cursory glance at their pool would suggest not), then two B-levels and a 1st with a capdump is much closer to Forsberg's value.

Look at the Meier trade (who had no contract and a $10M QO to boot):
A recent 1st round pick trending up (Shakir Mukhamadullin)
A 21 year old defenseman playing minutes in the NHl for 2 seasons (Nikita Okhotiuk)
A 22 year old 0.5PPG forward
An expiring contract cap dump
A current-year 1st round pick
The following year's 1st round pick

That's the rough equivalent to entertain a Forsberg trade. The trade proposed was a 2025 first, a 2026 3rd, and a 2 year cap dump. That's why I said add your two best prospects and it's closer.

 

[beardawg]

31? What is Nashville offering?

Stability and 0 state income tax

 

[Three On Zero]

Canucks don’t have the assets to acquire Forsberg. Nashville isn’t a team selling

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Trading Forsberg is a non-starter. Our best forward and he basically signed a "finish your career in Nashville" extension. Playing with O'Reilly has also brought out another more consistent gear from him. Asking price would be absurd, and he likely wouldn't waive his NTC anyway.

 

[SelltheTeamFrancesco]

the OP offer with Kuzmenko is closer to Forsberg's value than this is. No one is giving 2 A level prospects + 1st let alone addign to that for him. You could easily flip Kuzmenko for a 2nd or a 1st with 50% ret next year. 2 1sts and a 2nd is not too far off Forsberg's value.


Miller was considered negative value by basically this entire board before the start of this season and likely even now half this board prob still thinks that. He's only 1 year older than Forsberg.

JT Miller has averaged 95 points per 82 games over the last 3 seasons including this one. He makes 500K less at 8M. He also plays the more vital position being a center.
Over there careers, Forsberg avgs 6 more points per 82 games.

Forsberg's value is likely around 2 1sts + 2nd + 3rd if you're going based off pick value.

lol who’s paying this for a guys that about to turn 30 and is paid 8.5 million for the next 6 years. I don’t think people on here realize that contracts and cap hits need to be factored in when evaluating a players value. It’s not oh this guy is really good he should get the moon you have to look at other factors. Also we have seen time and time again teams will sign players to bad contracts but they will not trade for them unless it substantially benefits them. So, if you think Forsberg is getting that you are out to lunch unless Nashville is taking back a bad contract.

 

[gritdash60]

I have no idea how this ever could work out but i would love to see Pettersson and Forsberg together.

 

[Canuck Luck]

We definitely disagree on "A-level" then. If 22 teams have 2 players that qualify, that's a LOT of "A's" being handed out.

I place "A-level" at top line, top pair, or high end starter with a pretty high likelihood of meeting it. A prospect like Nemec, Michkov, Smith, or Gauthier.

And if Vancouver doesn't have even one of those (a cursory glance at their pool would suggest not), then two B-levels and a 1st with a capdump is much closer to Forsberg's value.

Look at the Meier trade (who had no contract and a $10M QO to boot):
A recent 1st round pick trending up (Shakir Mukhamadullin)
A 21 year old defenseman playing minutes in the NHl for 2 seasons (Nikita Okhotiuk)
A 22 year old 0.5PPG forward
An expiring contract cap dump
A current-year 1st round pick
The following year's 1st round pick

That's the rough equivalent to entertain a Forsberg trade. The trade proposed was a 2025 first, a 2026 3rd, and a 2 year cap dump. That's why I said add your two best prospects and it's closer.

1. I never said 22 teams have A level prospects. You said about 22 teams DONT have A level prospects

As I said before, the definition of an A level prospect can differ. In your mind A level is the highest tier of prospect reserved for only the elite of the elite. The players that would be A tier for you are A+ tier to me.

2. Meier was a 26 year old everyone knew was going to sign a long term deal around 8-9M.
- Shakir Mukhamadullin must be a B- level prospect by your standards at the time of the trade. The consesnus on these boards was he was trending to be a 3rd pairing D-man potential.
- Nikita Okhotiuk another B- or C level prospect with a projected 3rd pairing potential
- Fabian Zetterlund yet another B- prospect starting to earn a NHL roster spot but also couldnt be sent down as he's waiver eligible.
- an expiring cap dump
- a late 1st
- a 2nd that conditionally became a 1st

No need to lie about player ages to make them younger btw. Okhotiuk was 22 soon to be 23 and Zetterlund was 23 soon to be 24.

The equivalent from the Canucks would be something like Vasili Podkolzin, Nils Hoglander, Cole McWard + 2024 1st + conditional 2025 2nd that becomes a 1st if the Canucks make the WCF in 2024 or 2025, for Meier.
Definitely a far cry from 1st + Willander + Lekkerimaki.

 

[Connor McConnor]

We definitely disagree on "A-level" then. If 22 teams have 2 players that qualify, that's a LOT of "A's" being handed out.

I place "A-level" at top line, top pair, or high end starter with a pretty high likelihood of meeting it. A prospect like Nemec, Michkov, Smith, or Gauthier.

And if Vancouver doesn't have even one of those (a cursory glance at their pool would suggest not), then two B-levels and a 1st with a capdump is much closer to Forsberg's value.

Look at the Meier trade (who had no contract and a $10M QO to boot):
A recent 1st round pick trending up (Shakir Mukhamadullin)
A 21 year old defenseman playing minutes in the NHl for 2 seasons (Nikita Okhotiuk)
A 22 year old 0.5PPG forward
An expiring contract cap dump
A current-year 1st round pick
The following year's 1st round pick

That's the rough equivalent to entertain a Forsberg trade. The trade proposed was a 2025 first, a 2026 3rd, and a 2 year cap dump. That's why I said add your two best prospects and it's closer.

Willander is an A level prospect. He's the only one they have but I'd definitely say he is. The offers are still horrible though so this thread is pointless.

 

[abo9]

The canucks absolutely trade a 1st two drafts from now for a player who's top 10 in goals and top 15 in points.

I meant the trade someone else posted Lekkerimaki + Willander + 1st vs Forsberg

Without Cap or cap implications, that trade favours the Forsberg side 100%, but with the Cap I see reasons why keeping the prospects make sense

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

If Forsberg were to be available, and I don't think Nashville will do that, there will be a lot of teams lining up.

 

[Peter Griffin]

I meant the trade someone else posted Lekkerimaki + Willander + 1st vs Forsberg

Without Cap or cap implications, that trade favours the Forsberg side 100%, but with the Cap I see reasons why keeping the prospects make sense

Exactly this. As much as I’d love to add a Forsberg-level talent, the Canucks will need the ELC contracts of Willander and Lekkerimaki to navigate the cap in the coming years.

If Vancouver is going to make a move for a high level forward, Jake Guentzel makes a lot more sense if Pittsburgh decides to move him.

 

[BleedBlue14]

Ask yourself. How does this benefit Nashville?

Trading a top line forward signed to term for an overpaid 3rd line scorer, a late 1st and a 2nd or 3rd?

Do you know what the odds of getting an NHL player out of those picks are?

 

[Dfence033]

Willander is an A level prospect. He's the only one they have but I'd definitely say he is. The offers are still horrible though so this thread is pointless.

Wasn't suggesting that they didn't have them, just that on first glance it didn't look like it. I'm not overly familiar with their prospect pool, but several of their fans have now suggested some pretty crazy rationalizing - like paying to get rid of Forsberg on a bad contract.

Meanwhile another is attempting to sell that a 1st in 2 years, a cap dump, and a 3rd is in the same stratosphere as what Meier got, knowing he was going to sign for....more money than Forsberg, then trying to cheapen the assets gotten by anecdotal hearsay by "people on this site."

In hindsight, I should have left it as "not available for less than a stupid overpay, which the original offers wouldn't be the 'sweetener' for."

 

[Dfence033]

1. I never said 22 teams have A level prospects. You said about 22 teams DONT have A level prospects

As I said before, the definition of an A level prospect can differ. In your mind A level is the highest tier of prospect reserved for only the elite of the elite. The players that would be A tier for you are A+ tier to me.

2. Meier was a 26 year old everyone knew was going to sign a long term deal around 8-9M.
- Shakir Mukhamadullin must be a B- level prospect by your standards at the time of the trade. The consesnus on these boards was he was trending to be a 3rd pairing D-man potential.
- Nikita Okhotiuk another B- or C level prospect with a projected 3rd pairing potential
- Fabian Zetterlund yet another B- prospect starting to earn a NHL roster spot but also couldnt be sent down as he's waiver eligible.
- an expiring cap dump
- a late 1st
- a 2nd that conditionally became a 1st

No need to lie about player ages to make them younger btw. Okhotiuk was 22 soon to be 23 and Zetterlund was 23 soon to be 24.

The equivalent from the Canucks would be something like Vasili Podkolzin, Nils Hoglander, Cole McWard + 2024 1st + conditional 2025 2nd that becomes a 1st if the Canucks make the WCF in 2024 or 2025, for Meier.
Definitely a far cry from 1st + Willander + Lekkerimaki.

From what I consider A-level prospects, I said the majority of teams don't have TWO.

We can agree that the definitions of levels can differ, and we established that you and I view them differently. That's fine.

You then suggest that Meier was known to be signing a deal at more than Forsberg as if that's a negative for Forsberg and/or a positive for Meier.

Yes, I would class Mukhamadullin as a B/B- level at the time of the trade, same with Zetterlund as a B-. Okhotiuk I'd probably have as a C-Level. All were 23 or younger. And NJ still gave up 2 1sts and their cap dump expired the same season.

Where is any equivalent peice in these proposals? The late 1st next season? Which was the least valuable non cap dump piece given?

 

[SelltheTeamFrancesco]

Ask yourself. How does this benefit Nashville?

Trading a top line forward signed to term for an overpaid 3rd line scorer, a late 1st and a 2nd or 3rd?

Do you know what the odds of getting an NHL player out of those picks are?

You are getting out of the backend of the contract which would be the same reason San Jose traded EK. If you go through a rebuild you don’t want that salary on your books when you are ready to take the next step. I don’t understand why people don’t get that once you sign a player to a retirement contract going into their late 30’s you either keep that player or you get pennies on the dollar for them because nobody want to trade for term especially if it’s an older player. So, yes Nashville would probably be much better of keeping him because his value is not all that high.

 

[centipede2233]

Full NMC until 2028, on a long-term deal, in a tax-free state. Plus, the Predators like him, plus Nashville is not looking to rebuild. Some proposals just don't take all sides (Team A, Team B, player needs/objectives if he has control) into account.

Exactly, also forsberg has been their awhile, likely made friends, established roots, know the city of Nashville. Why he would want to waive to go to a brand new city and relearn a new city and leave friends behind and uproot his family…forsberg has that NMC for a reason

 

[glenngineer]

Forsberg’s wife is a country singer trying to make it. Doubt he’s going to approve a trade to Vancouver and upset the apple cart at home.

 

[EXTRAS]

I don't get why kuzmenko isn't given any value here? He had more points in his Rookie season last year than forsberg has had in all but 1 season.

 

[David Bruce Banner]

Nashville would ask for more and I'd rather keep those assets.