Fancy Stats

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Both sides have ridiculous arguments. Your example would prove nothing, at all.

There are people that are lousy at eye test judging, there are people that are lousy at understanding, and incorporating stats. That one person is lousy at eye test judging, does not make eye test judging irrelevant. That one person, one organization have lousy people doing stats, does not invalidate stats.

Understanding this, is very basic.
Kerfoot is weak,costs to much for a third line center and costs you the puck on a defensive zone faceoff is not ridiculous. Its fact. Who cares about a adv stat when i say fact like that. I’m not being ridiculous saying that. The person pushingbthe crap stat is wrong, but they keep harping on. Thats annoying and thats what causes disinterest
 
Kerfoot is weak,costs to much for a third line center and costs you the puck on a defensive zone faceoff is not ridiculous. Its fact. Who cares about a adv stat when i say fact.

I never mentioned Kerfoot, nor do I care to argue about him.

So, when you declare something a fact, the world kneels to your vast superiority? LOL

Seriously, your little contest, that you repeat in here, displays a fundamental lack of understanding, or burden of proof.
 
I never mentioned Kerfoot, nor do I care to argue about him.

So, when you declare something a fact, the world kneels to your vast superiority? LOL

Seriously, your little contest, that you repeat in here, displays a fundamental lack of understanding, or burden of proof.
It was a example thats true. Did i say you said it. You just didn’t like it because it’s true likely. This is a hockey site dude. It's not court. Yer out to lunch. Go shake yer pillow
 
It was a example thats true. Did i say you said it. You just didn’t like it because it’s true likely. This is a hockey site dude. It's not court. Yer out to lunch. Go shake yer pillow

Is it true? Even if it is true, does one example, now make you an expert in anything? I suppose we can draw up comparable salaries, for equally productive 3C's. It wouldn't work out too well for you though.

But why waste time, with someone who has repeatedly ignored evidence provided to him/(her?) by others?

Yes, this is a hockey site, where our communication methodology, makes it clear to understand who has a higher understanding, and who doesn't. In the end, your "challenge" is a laughable concept, that wouldn't prove anything. The presentation of the concept, certainly does prove something. Also, not understanding the how, and why this "concept" wouldn't prove anything, also proves something.
 
I love those lazy narratives that seem to snowball on message boards. The Kerfoot one might be my new favourite.
 
Not a pro or con comment about advanced stats, but the high/low danger shot thing has always been interesting. Just a few inches difference could mean the difference between high danger zone and a less dangerous zone. Seems like those stats could be error prone.
 
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Is it really?
The stats themselves are results and facts. How we interpret them is where you may see bias. For example, tyson barrie is in the 79th percentile in controlled exits. If someone says that he oftenly leaves the zone with the puck on his stick (or passes it to a teammate who is able to get past the center line), That is an unbiased fact.

The bias is when sportsnet releases an article putting tyson barrie in the top 20 because of his zone exits (Definitive ranking of NHL’s top 20 defencemen over three seasons - Sportsnet.ca). The onus is on the interpreter of the analytics not the analytics themselves. So yeah, analytics actually reduces bias.
 
Not a pro or con comment about advanced stats, but the high/low danger shot thing has always been interesting. Just a few inches difference could mean the difference between high danger zone and a less dangerous zone. Seems like those stats could be error prone.
It’s probably based on a decades worth of raw data of where people score, but even a one inch deviation does make a difference. If a shooter is one inch left of the high danger zone, it’s harder for the shooter to score as the goalie can block off angles.
high danger zone hockey - Google Search
 
Not a pro or con comment about advanced stats, but the high/low danger shot thing has always been interesting. Just a few inches difference could mean the difference between high danger zone and a less dangerous zone. Seems like those stats could be error prone.
When a human is compiling the data it’s always going to be prone to error, bias.
 
H
I love those lazy narratives that seem to snowball on message boards. The Kerfoot one might be my new favourite.
He is to costly for third line center,softbon the puck,weak when he gets there and loses many more faceoffs than he wins. He was not good. Now all the talk is he is goung to kill penalties haaa. He will lose most defensive zone draws. Oh yeah he’s awesome
 
Except the positions I take are backed up by actual facts. Your substantiation just seems to be that you think it.
I read his faceoff stats dude. They are crap. 46% Are you pretending now you never seen them before. Not much of a stats guy after all are you. He’s junk on the dots. Thats a fact.
I hope he does better. You are just interested in deflecting as per usual to all of your posts.
 
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I read his faceoff stats dude. They are crap. 46%. Are you pretending now you never seen them before. Not much of a stats guy after all are you. He’s junk on the dots. Thats a fact.
First off, you claimed more than just about his face-offs, and you substantiated none of it. Second, he was about 47% on faceoffs last year, but was actually 56% the year before, putting him at almost 52% over the last 2 years. So no, he is not "junk on the dots". The more likely answer is that wearing a full facemask probably impacts faceoffs. Third, faceoffs aren't really the most relevant or impactful stat. All faceoffs do is determine initial possession, but possession is constantly changing; it's much more important what you do after the faceoff. A 47% faceoff percentage means that Kerfoot lost one extra faceoff every 3 or so games... It has very little relevance to his overall quality and impact as a player, and it's not a reason to get rid of somebody. Especially when we now have one of the best face-off players of the last generation as an assistant coach, to help teach that aspect of play.
 
First off, you claimed more than just about his face-offs, and you substantiated none of it. Second, he was about 47% on faceoffs last year, but was actually 56% the year before, putting him at almost 52% over the last 2 years. So no, he is not "junk on the dots". The more likely answer is that wearing a full facemask probably impacts faceoffs. Third, faceoffs aren't really the most relevant or impactful stat. All faceoffs do is determine initial possession, but possession is constantly changing; it's much more important what you do after the faceoff. A 47% faceoff percentage means that Kerfoot lost one extra faceoff every 3 or so games... It has very little relevance to his overall quality and impact as a player, and it's not a reason to get rid of somebody. Especially when we now have one of the best face-off players of the last generation as an assistant coach, to help teach that aspect of play.
48.4 career on faceoffs. If you think thats good. I proved enough for whoever reads that. Exposes you somewhat I’d say. He is a third line center making $3,500,000 and thats another thing i said that you are contesting. He’s as good as gone as soon as he can be moved. He is weak and knocked off pucks easy i also said. You contest that too d ya. Oh sweet. Yeah he’s a real ox out there. Starting with the puck is key. Starting with the puck in the defensive zone is paramount. This guy supposedly killing penalties next season and losing more than he wins in the defensive zone faceoffs isn’t important to you either. Ohhhh yeah very interesting. You just corner yourself every letter you hit.

His three season zone starts % is 59 in the offensive zone and 41 in the defensive zone. The man is very sheltered defensively and thats a a $3,500,000 3rd line center you think is squate money for that role. Anyways there is so much more negative but you wouldn’t want to understand. I don’t have time to teach you either. ;)
NHL Playoffs Extra Stats (All)

He won 32% faceoffs in playoffs wow eh



SeasonAgeTeamLgGPGAPTSSBAMISSTSASThr%FOWFOLFO%HITBLKTKGV
2017-1823COLNHL62027311163.6262947.32212
2018-1924COLNHL12033179103647.2141646.710648
2019-2025TORNHL5033522955.6153132.681014
82 Game Avg.NHL8272129103504620051.819627142.071642150
2 yrsCOLNHL182352412114751.1404547.1128510
CareerNHL232682914135651.8557642.02018614
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]
 
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48.4 career on faceoffs. If you think thats good. I proved enough for whoever reads that. Exposes you somewhat I’d say. He is a third line center making $3,500,000 and thats another thing i said that you are contesting. He’s as good as gone as soon as he can be moved. He is weak and knocked off pucks easy i also said. You contest that too d ya. Oh sweet. Yeah he’s a real ox out there. Starting with the puck is key. Starting with the puck in the defensive zone is paramount. This guy supposedly killing penalties next season and losing more than he wins in the defensive zone faceoffs isn’t important to you either. Ohhhh yeah very interesting. You just corner yourself every letter you hit.

His three season zone starts % is 59 in the offensive zone and 41 in the defensive zone. The man is very sheltered defensively and thats a a $3,500,000 3rd line center you think is squate money for that role. Anyways there is so much more negative but you wouldn’t want to understand. I don’t have time to teach you either. ;)
NHL Playoffs Extra Stats (All)

He won 32% faceoffs in playoffs wow eh



SeasonAgeTeamLgGPGAPTSSBAMISSTSASThr%FOWFOLFO%HITBLKTKGV
2017-1823COLNHL62027311163.6262947.32212
2018-1924COLNHL12033179103647.2141646.710648
2019-2025TORNHL5033522955.6153132.681014
82 Game Avg.NHL8272129103504620051.819627142.071642150
2 yrsCOLNHL182352412114751.1404547.1128510
CareerNHL232682914135651.8557642.02018614
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

Some players take years to learn how to be good at Faceoffs... Kadri had a worse FO% by a decent margin and got Selke votes.... At age 26, Kadri was below 48% career faceoffs.

Here you are, hanging your hat on 48.8%....

Please list all of the Capfriendly comparables of his, for 3C, and what their cap hit percentage was, to prove you are right.
 
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TO has hired fancy stat experts, guys who have come up with Corsi, Fenwick and other such stats and so has other teams hired such people. Why hire them when the info they published was commonly available?

Who are the people publishing Corsi stats and other such stats, how do they have the time to view and evaluate 2,460 games plus playoff games? As far as I know these stats are provided by volunteers who probably are like Leaf fans viewing Leaf games, or Ottawa fans viewing Ottawa games and on and on. Leaf fans have a Leaf bias, Ottawa fans an Ottawa bias so how accurate are these commonly available stats?

Plus and Minus is a stat that the NHL actually pays someone to ascertain, it's a professionally provided and derived result, it might not be perfect but I think it's the only reliable stat that's available to us, the fans.

TO, Ottawa and other teams have analytics departments, I'm positive teams that have analytics dept. don't trust or rely on what many of we fans consider to be the bible.

An example of an amateur or biased results might be hitting, the Islanders have tradionally lead the NHL in the number of hits for the last 10 years(I'm guessing here) because they pad their home stats.

As as others have mentioned, teams use a mix of proprietary internal stats- we know the Leafs have been very much at the forefront of this, and they also use (or likely use) public ones. Keefe/Dubas have referneced public stuff like possession, zone entries, expected goals, but that stuff is just at the tip of the iceberg of what hockey analytics departments do.

That said I really dislike how polarized these discussions get. Folks act like you can either be a fan of analytics or a fan of the eyetest/traditional analysis. When I think most people end up being a mix of the two groups in some form of the other.

Dubas himself gets painted as an analytics guy beacuse he talks about them in public from time to time, but he also mentions on several occasions how he's not just focused on those. Nuances like that get lost in the debates on here though
 
Not a pro or con comment about advanced stats, but the high/low danger shot thing has always been interesting. Just a few inches difference could mean the difference between high danger zone and a less dangerous zone. Seems like those stats could be error prone.

It definitely is, but the idea with those zone separations is those blurred line moments will ideally get evened out during bigger sample sizes.
 
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Fancy stats are just a fad and the narrative surrounding them will go away on this board the moment Dubas is no longer the GM. It wasn't that long ago the "keep calm, corsi's wrong" narrative was strong around here.

Inconsistent opinions are strong around these parts.
 
As as others have mentioned, teams use a mix of proprietary internal stats- we know the Leafs have been very much at the forefront of this, and they also use (or likely use) public ones. Keefe/Dubas have referneced public stuff like possession, zone entries, expected goals, but that stuff is just at the tip of the iceberg of what hockey analytics departments do.

That said I really dislike how polarized these discussions get. Folks act like you can either be a fan of analytics or a fan of the eyetest/traditional analysis. When I think most people end up being a mix of the two groups in some form of the other.

Dubas himself gets painted as an analytics guy beacuse he talks about them in public from time to time, but he also mentions on several occasions how he's not just focused on those. Nuances like that get lost in the debates on here though
How about the fact Dubas seemed to change his approach with the signings of Thornton, Bogosian, Simmonds, and Brodie. When you look at their height it goes against the theory he only wants small and fast players.
 
How about the fact Dubas seemed to change his approach with the signings of Thornton, Bogosian, Simmonds, and Brodie. When you look at their height it goes against the theory he only wants small and fast players.

Just because some people “assume” that Dubas has an approach, and changed it, does not make them right. It goes against a theory that he wants small and fast players only, probably because the theory wasn’t correct about his approach to begin with.
 

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