Fancy Stats

[Dekes For Days]

That's almost entirely what it's measuring

Except that's not all that it's measuring. You're excluding stuff that it's measuring because it doesn't fit your false claim.

There's no measure of the actual talent of the player given to the model.

Individual shooting talent is considered in the creation of these values; it's just not measured for every single shot. What you don't seem to realize is that over significant samples, shooting quality faced does not vary very significantly, and in the large majority of cases, the aspects that are being directly measured for each shot are way more impactful towards a resulting goal than individual shooting talent.

And this is why these stats are seen as a joke except from people like you.

Actually, they are seen as valuable by those who actually understand it.

Giving things names like "High", "Medium", and "Low" are as arbitrary as anything. It means nothing.

It's not arbitrary. It's based on set criteria, backed up by statistical data, making it literally not arbitrary.

It really doesn't mean anything though.

Corsi is fairly basic and limited in it's use, but it is still a stat, and it does mean something.

That's why it doesn't correlate to wins, playoff wins, Stanley Cup winners, etc.

That's not even true...

 

[SeaOfBlue]

This thread is a fun read, but I think one thing that should be made abundantly clear is that Dubas does not just look at "fancy stats" and a spreadsheet to make his decisions, despite common belief on the internet. He is not one of those Twitter guys.

NHL GM's use analytics effectively like another scout, but unlike scouting, you can get a lot of information on a lot of players in a very short period of time. It's not completely comprehensive, which is why teams still spend millions of dollars on scouting and nobody looks to replace scouts with analytics, but every team uses analytics and it typically leads to success when they use it properly.

 

[NinjaKick]

imho "fancy stats" can be a good complimentary tool towards the eye test... however if you rely on just "fancy stats" to make a judgement than you will run into some problems...

 

[SeaOfBlue]

imho "fancy stats" can be a good complimentary tool towards the eye test... however if you rely on just "fancy stats" to make a judgement than you will run into some problems...

It is no different than if you just trust one guy to make any decision based on their "eye test". It rarely happens, especially for any kind of important decision, and usually if analytics do not back up the eye test, then it is as worthless as simply just picking a guy off of a spreadsheet without any kind of context (which, who knows, may also happen once in a while if you are running out of people to draft). It is why they don't really exist independently anymore.

 

[hobarth]

An interesting fancy stat I see is for d-men being able to move the puck from their zone out to a team mate, I would think that Hainsey when he was in TO would have an easier time moving the puck than Rielly because the opposition would be more vigilant when Rielly has the puck, he would have a far more difficult time with an inferior d partner, there are so many variables in every fancy stat that any sort of accurate measurement is nearly impossible.

 

[Menzinger]

Sandin looked categorically outmatched by way better opposition down low and got his face plastered into the boards the few times he saw ice this season, but apparently he was good?

It sounds like your stats should be taken very, very seriously!

Amazing the things that show up on blogs vs actually watching what happened!

Or you've overvalued the significance that a couple plays that happened to stick in your memory on a player's overall impact.....

This happens all the time on these boards: a player will make a particularly memorable single play (for better or for worse) and that becomes the main metric folks will use to determine how they played that game, regardless of what happened during every other moment they were on the ice.

 

[Zybalto]

What is the Corsi for each player in the games Sandin played?

For simplicity, not gonna include data before Rielly was injured and Sandin was recalled a second time but from January 13th to end of season (among players with 100 minutes minimum):

1. Sandin: 53.92
2. Kerfoot: 53.00
3. Nylander: 52.81
4. Engvall: 52.07
5. Muzzin: 51.83
6. Spezza: 50.88
7. Barrie: 50.88
8. Kapanen: 50.85
9. Matthews: 50.83
10. Tavares: 50.81
11. Holl: 50.20
12. Ceci: 49.79
13. Marner: 49.71
14. Hyman: 49.66
15. Marincin: 49.22
16. Johnsson: 48.81
17. Dermott: 47.64
18. Clifford: 46.91
19. Gauthier: 45.48
20. Liljegren: 43.37

 

[CoveySteele]

eye test - that kid sure is short, sure is fast, sure does shoot a lot, sure does score a lot

stats - his measurement is 5'3", his skating speed tests are **, his shot totals, his goal totals

fancy stats - how do those measurables translate into the flow of a system

I don't get how this is still hard for people. No one is saying "fancy stats" are the way to build a team...especially in such a juvenile stage. They are saying that they are an added layer of knowledge about a given player or situation. Paired together they can offer some great insight into why someone is succeeding or failing. So long as they aren't tracking useless stats like "facial hair growth rate" or "celebrations per 60" then I think they are fine in accumulating data and seeing what patterns are found.

 

[Bomber0104]

Or you've overvalued the significance that a couple plays that happened to stick in your memory on a player's overall impact.....

This happens all the time on these boards: a player will make a particularly memorable single play (for better or for worse) and that becomes the main metric folks will use to determine how they played that game, regardless of what happened during every other moment they were on the ice.

Yeah, Sandin was so good in the most sheltered role imaginable during the regular season that he didn't get a single minute of playing time in the play-in round.

Either Martin Marincin (a dime a dozen league minimum player) is better than him currently or Keefe made a horrendous oversight not allowing Sandin and his tremendous advanced stats to hit the ice.

 

[Menzinger]

Yeah, Sandin was so good in the most sheltered role imaginable during the regular season that he didn't get a single minute of playing time in the play-in round.

What a tremendous oversight on Keefe's part not allowing Sandin and his tremendous advanced stats to hit the ice.

Almost as if theres a wee difference between a young player demonstrating promising play during a brief and sheltered stint vs expected to be a regular in the post season.

The two dont cancel each other out.

 

[Bomber0104]

Almost as if theres a wee difference between a young player demonstrating promising play during a brief and sheltered stint vs expected to be a regular in the post season.

The two dont cancel each other out.

Excuses don't interest me.

Maybe next year he'll be prove to have worth than Martin Marincin.

 

[Notsince67]

So Sandin at 54 isn’t very good?

Didnt say that. You asked what was considered good.
Corsi is a tough one because some players game it up. It is handy in conjunction with other stats for most players. I dont love the metric though. Hoping that puck tracking stats retire it tbh.

 

[Menzinger]

Excuses don't interest me.

Maybe next year he'll be prove to have worth than Martin Marincin.

Pointing out the giant flaw in your earlier logic isn't an excuse.

I get that its been a while since Leafs fans have watched a young D man properly develop, but we both (should) know that you don't throw a rookie D man into a playoff situation like that.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Excuses don't interest me.

Maybe next year he'll be prove to have worth than Martin Marincin.

Why don't you just blame Jake Muzzin for getting cross checked by Pierre-Luc Dubois in Game 2 that caused his injury and the reason for having to play Martin Marincin.

 

[Bomber0104]

Pointing out the giant flaw in your earlier logic isn't an excuse.

There's absolutely no flaw.

If he is good enough to play over Martin Marincin, then he plays.
If he isn't good enough to play over Martin Marincin, then he doesn't play.

And if his amazing advanced stats are so good that it'd be stupid not to play him, then either the stats don't matter as much as people on the internet believe or the coach made a terrible decision.

Take your pick.

I get that its been a while since Leafs fans have watched a young D man properly develop, but we both (should) know that you don't throw a rookie D man into a playoff situation like that.

Ryan Ellis (a once-comparable defensive prospect) had absolutely no problems fitting into an already stacked D-corps, receiving playoff games and quality minutes while transitioning from junior to the NHL. Sandin is now well behind his trajectory.

What's funny is how you're trying to simultaneously hype and also make excuses/coddle a prospect who hasn't shown himself to be an everyday NHL defenceman.

I don't hear Sandin making any excuses for himself so I don't know why you are.

 

[Zybalto]

Ryan Ellis (a once-comparable defensive prospect) had absolutely no problems fitting into an already stacked D-corps, receiving playoff games and quality minutes while transitioning from junior to the NHL. Sandin is now well behind his trajectory.

What's funny is how you're trying to simultaneously hype and also make excuses/coddle a prospect who hasn't shown himself to be an everyday NHL defenceman.

I don't hear Sandin making any excuses for himself so I don't know why you are.

Am I missing something or does Sandin's D+2 season actually looks close Ellis' D+3 season:


Sandin's D+2 season:

AHL:
21 games played: 15 points
NHL:
28 games played: 8 points

Ellis' D+3 season:

AHL:
29 games played: 18 points
NHL:
32 games played: 11 points
NHL playoffs:
3 games played: 0 points


So Sandin is producing at pretty much the same level at a younger age and your attacking him because Nashville kept Ellis on their roster as an extra D for 3 games in the playoffs?

Sandin just turned 20 in March. The kid made an NHL team as a 19 year old defenseman. He was named the best D at the world juniors last year.

Sandin has been playing against men since being drafted and has a good amount of NHL experience at the same time Ellis was still playing with (mostly younger) teenagers.

How is Sandin well behind his trajectory?

 

[Bomber0104]

Am I missing something or does Sandin's D+2 season actually looks close Ellis' D+3 season:


Sandin's D+2 season:

AHL:
21 games played: 15 points
NHL:
28 games played: 8 points

Ellis' D+3 season:

AHL:
29 games played: 18 points
NHL:
32 games played: 11 points
NHL playoffs:
3 games played: 0 points


So Sandin is producing at pretty much the same level at a younger age and your attacking him because Nashville kept Ellis on their roster as an extra D for 3 games in the playoffs?

Sandin just turned 20 in March. The kid made an NHL team as a 19 year old defenseman. He was named the best D at the world juniors last year.

Sandin has been playing against men since being drafted and has a good amount of NHL experience at the same time Ellis was still playing with (mostly younger) teenagers.

How is Sandin well behind his trajectory?

Because unlike you I don't rate defencemen based on how many points they score, thankfully.

AHL points

What a horrible analysis.

 

[Zybalto]

Because unlike you I don't rate defencemen based on how many points they score, thankfully.

AHL points

What a horrible analysis.

Sigh...I'll simplify it for you then. Maybe I'll get an answer.

Sandin:

NHL:
28 games played

Ellis:

Still in Junior

How is Sandin well behind his trajectory?

 

[Bomber0104]

Sigh...I'll simplify it for you then. Maybe I'll get an answer.

Sandin:

NHL:
28 games played

Ellis:

Still in Junior

How is Sandin well behind his trajectory?

Ellis climbed heights that Sandin never did even in the junior and international ranks.

There's absolutely no disputing it either.

Medals, hardware, eye test, points, you name it...

And then he made the Preds with their stacked D and got immediate meaningful playing time ahead of the Martin Marincin's of the world...

Accept it and move on or if you want further explanation, ask the main board why Ryan Ellis was a far better prospect than Sandin currently is.

Bring your AHL point totals with you.

I'm sure everyone will be super impressed!

 

[Hockey Crazy]

People should not be afraid of things they don't understand. Statistics are just another tool to be used... like all statistics, they're worthless without context or an understanding of how they should be applied.

Anyone who thinks they are looking at some numbers with no traditional scouting are pretty naive.

 

[ARoggy94]

Because unlike you I don't rate defencemen based on how many points they score, thankfully.

AHL points

What a horrible analysis.

would love to read your analysis on ryan ellis's ahl performance

 

[Bomber0104]

would love to read your analysis on ryan ellis's ahl performance

No need.

He never played there for any duration.

 

[ARoggy94]

No need.

He never played there for any duration.

roughly the same amount of games as sandin at an older age? but ellis transitioned from junior to the nhl?

 

[Zybalto]

Ellis climbed heights that Sandin never did even in the junior and international ranks.

There's absolutely no disputing it either.

Medals, hardware, eye test, points, you name it...

And then he made the Preds with their stacked D and got immediate meaningful playing time ahead of the Martin Marincin's of the world...

Accept it and move on or if you want further explanation, ask the main board why Ryan Ellis was a far better prospect than Sandin currently is.

Bring your AHL point totals with you.

I'm sure everyone will be super impressed!

Bring on your junior points!

Go to the main boards? Now youre just being silly.

If Sandin is close to what Ellis is, I'll be happy though. The numbers from their first seasons are eerily similar. Both averaged 14-15 minutes a game, which was 8th highest on their teams. Both led their Dcores in corsi rating. Both had similar point totals.

Even internationally, both won the highest junior award as the best dman at the WJC. Due to the loophole, Sandin went pro right away so theres no way to really compare junior league numbers right?

BTW, I think that AHL point production from smallish transition Dmen does matter. If Ellis or Sandin scored half the points they did in the AHL, they arnt getting the callup.

 

[The Podium]

I think the flaw in a lot of arguments in this thread is thinking that publicly available stats are the same ones that the teams are using. In reality, the teams have their own stats that they pay people to track. These tend to be secret as they differ between teams.

Ellis climbed heights that Sandin never did even in the junior and international ranks.

There's absolutely no disputing it either.

Medals, hardware, eye test, points, you name it...

And then he made the Preds with their stacked D and got immediate meaningful playing time ahead of the Martin Marincin's of the world...

Accept it and move on or if you want further explanation, ask the main board why Ryan Ellis was a far better prospect than Sandin currently is.

Bring your AHL point totals with you.

I'm sure everyone will be super impressed!

What are you talking about?

Ellis dominated the OHL in his draft season, but after that they are very comparable prospects. Internationally?

These were both in their D+2 season

Player A
WJC All Star
WJC Best defenseman
WJC Most points by a defenseman

Player B
WJC All Star
WJC Best defenseman
WJC Most points by a defenseman
WJC Most goals by a defenseman

AHL Careers
Sandin (Age 18-19) 65GP 8G 35A 43Pts
Ellis (Age 21-22) 61GP 9G 24A 33Pts

Ellis made the Preds part time in his D+3 and D+4 season and full time in his D+5 season
- Was behind stalwarts Francis Boullion (who?) Jack Hillen (WHO?) and old man Hall Gill in his D+3 and D+4 seasons

Sandin made the Leafs part time in his D+2 season