I agree with a lot of what you wrote in this post and the thread in general. I also don't know what DeLuca told NHL teams.
However, I have my doubts that this was 100% about his move to play NL. Many prospects play their D+1 in Europe, even bluechip top prospects like Miro Heiskanen or (most likely) David Reinbacher. It was never a problem. I also don't see why DeLuca would be stuck in Ambri for two years. I expect him to honor his contract but since Switzerland now has a transfer agreement with the NHL, he absolutely doesn't have to. I also don't see how NHL teams would have more control over DeLuca if he stayed in Spokane. Any NHL team drafting him could have just signed him and loaned him to Ambri resulting in the exact same amount of control. This has happened many times before and teams will continue to loan their prospects to European teams.
The unique thing about DeLuca is the timing, the fact that it was clear ahead of the draft he's gonna leave the WHL for Switzerland. While the timing and the fact that he's going back and forth between Europe and NA may look strange it makes perfect sense from the player's view. He was offered an opportunity to become an NL regular with a real chance to play top6. I can guarantee you 99% of CHL players would have accepted that offer. Many of them are happy if they get any kind of pro offer or even just a tryout/camp invite. I can see why NHL teams didn't like it much but it's a good move for the player. Not without risk and he's betting on himself to be good enough to play NL which is quite a big step from WHL despite the CHL being the worlds best junior league. It's still a step from juniors to one of the best men's league, maybe the best in Europe. While it's a risk it's also a huge opportunity. The better the competition the more you can learn. Also, while coaching is usually poor in Switzerland, in Ambri it's not. Luca Cereda seems to be doing a fantastic job and is one of very few capable Swiss born coaches. I wouldn't have have a hesitated a single minute to accept that offer if I was DeLuca and it has nothing to do with the extra money. Ambri can't pay much anyway and certainly not a teenager.
Now again I don't know what was said when DeLuca and his camp talked to NHL teams but I'm not sure this was 100% just about him signing in Ambri. Either teams didn't like something he said or, more likely, they just didn't like his upside enough. DeLuca was good for Spokane but not more and he's undersized as well. He's a very good player but I'm not sure he's a unique player and if there's something he really excels at. If he was regarded as bluechip prospect or anything close from that, he'd have gotten drafted almost no matter what. That's at least my analysis of it. So if I'm not completely wrong and something else happened between player and teams then I think he has every chance to get drafted if he can keep up his play in Switzerland and at the WJC20. He just has to be too good for teams to pass on him and so far apparently he wasn't.
I agree for the most part. It most definitely wasn’t ONLY about his move to Switzerland. He was a fringe guy some teams had somewhere low-ish on their list while others saw him as an interesting invite. Of course there were teams that just didn’t like him too. But for a fringe guy like that, the decision to head back – and, like you said, making it known before the draft – was definitely enough for teams to take him off their lists entirely. Michkov was picked in the top 10 despite his multi-year contract in Russia – but De Luca is no Michkov…
Regarding team control, I don’t just mean the rights part of the equation but rather the influence teams can have on the player’s development. The goal for CHL teams is to make their players as good as possible and have them transition to the NHL or at least AHL. In the process, NHL teams will send their scouts, GMs and development coaches to see the drafted players throughout the year. They’ll just chat, go over video, discuss improvement areas, workout plans etc. They can be very hands-on, and coaches, GMs and agents will facilitate and encourage it.
For players in Europe, it’s very different. Teams in Europe have a huge interest in developing players for their own good. Yes, they’ll be paid a fee if their player signs in the NHL and they’ll be proud of the player if he makes it, but they still want to have him in their system for as long as possible, with the goal of making him a long-term member of the club. Instead of sending him to the AHL at 20, they’d rather keep him until 23+. It’s harder for NHL personell to keep in touch with the players and they have little to no control over what and how a player practices etc. They just have to trust the European club and hope for the best. The players will also be in touch with their European agents only, rather than their North American partners, who often prefer securing a big contract in Switzerland and making some CHF over sending a fringe guy to North America in hopes of getting him to the NHL.
Now, De Luca’s route could very well work out and it often has in the past. It’s probably true as well that Ambri is better for a player like De Luca than other clubs. However, as long as you don’t see De Luca as a can’t-miss prospect, many NHL teams think he’s just not worth the effort and prefer to pick a CHL/USHL/NCAA player they can see and talk to whenever they please.
