F Nicholas Robertson - Peterborough Petes, OHL (2019, 53rd, TOR)

[Jeffrey Pedler]

Those aren’t good examples. Those guys were early first round picks, late birthdays, both guys starred at a higher level of hockey than junior. They were also both consensus top 5 prospects outside the NHL when they joined. I think it’s also asking a lot to think Robertson is the same level of hockey talent. McAvoy is a top 10 defensemen in the league and Makar will be soon enough.

NCAA is not higher quality of hockey. The best of the best of NHL players, played in the CHL, with a couple NCAA stars and European players sprinkled in. The only difference between the NCAA and CHL, is age. Robertson will be 19 in a couple of months and should be given a chance, to play in the NHL.

 

[ponder]

The birthday matters because they were both old for their draft. Makar didn’t even join after one season of college hockey. He joined after two. Meanwhile, Robertson was one of the youngest players in his draft. Also, you don’t often see second round picks play in the NHL prior to their D+2 season. I think he should’ve been a first round pick, but it’s asking a lot of the player. I don’t know if there are even more than 1-2 non-firsts in recent memory that played in the NHL prior to their D+2 season.

There's no doubt it's asking a lot of him. If he was a week younger, he wouldn't even be drafted yet, and he's sort of ~3 months younger than his actual birthdate, as he was born ~3 months premature.

On the flip side, by all reports he's been looking great in camp, outplaying plenty of NHLers. He also had a pretty outstanding season in the OHL, putting up an insane 1.2 goals per game. Seems very competitive/driven, and very mature/professional for his age. If he ends up not snagging a spot, no worries, he's crazy young. But if Keefe does think he helps us win more than one of Engvall/Gauthier, then I'm all for it! At his age, it's normally only very high picks who make the NHL, but if our coaching staff legitimately thinks he's ready, then why not? Nobody is expecting him to be one of our better players, if he makes the team it's because he outcompeted one of Engvall/Gauthier, so he really just needs to provide a bit more than them. And if he looks ready in camp, but then less so in real games, one of Engvall/Gauthier can take his place mid-playoffs.

 

[Mach85]

The birthday matters because they were both old for their draft. Makar didn’t even join after one season of college hockey. He joined after two. Meanwhile, Robertson was one of the youngest players in his draft. Also, you don’t often see second round picks play in the NHL prior to their D+2 season. I think he should’ve been a first round pick, but it’s asking a lot of the player. I don’t know if there are even more than 1-2 non-firsts in recent memory that played in the NHL prior to their D+2 season.

If he should have been a first (and it's pretty consensus that he should have been) then that nullifies you "no non-firsts have done/should do this" argument. Which is a logical fallacy in and of itself anyway.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

NCAA is not higher quality of hockey. The best of the best of NHL players, played in the CHL, with a couple NCAA stars and European players sprinkled in. The only difference between the NCAA and CHL, is age. Robertson will be 19 in a couple of months and should be given a chance, to play in the NHL.

NCAA is absolutely better than the OHL. OHL produces more NHL’ers because it has more NHL level prospects. NCAA has older, bigger, stronger players. It prepares you more for the level of the NHL than any junior hockey league would.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

If he should have been a first (and it's pretty consensus that he should have been) then that nullifies you "no non-firsts have done/should do this" argument. Which is a logical fallacy in and of itself anyway.

No, it doesn’t. I only mentioned that because I knew some people would get defensive. I’m a fan of the player, but there are so few examples of players drafted in the second round to play in the NHL before their D+2 season. Even if he was drafted late first, it’s not like many of those play in the NHL before their D+2 season either.

 

[Mach85]

No, it doesn’t. I only mentioned that because I knew some people would get defensive. I’m a fan of the player, but there are so few examples of players drafted in the second round to play in the NHL before their D+2 season. Even if he was drafted late first, it’s not like many of those play in the NHL before their D+2 season either.

If you admit he has the talent of a first, so much so that he should have been taken in the first, then he's not qualitatively different than a first-rounder in ability and his status as a 2nd-rounder doesn't matter then. Plus it's an arbitrary cutoff point, which is a logical fallacy. Another one is assuming that just because it hasn't happened often that it can't happen or that it's a bad idea. The league has been skewing younger for a long time now, and groupthink prevented this from happening more often when it was the norm to just give vets first crack. If you think that just because it's never happened, or hasn't happened often, that that means it never COULD have happened then that's not a good argument. Further, in a flat cap world, having a cheap guy play becomes more attractive. Additionally, having no other league to go to for development means they'll get a longer look. Previously, there was less incentive to play a guy like Robertson for many reasons as I've shown.

 

[Jeffrey Pedler]

NCAA is absolutely better than the OHL. OHL produces more NHL’ers because it has more NHL level prospects. NCAA has older, bigger, stronger players. It prepares you more for the level of the NHL than any junior hockey league would.

That doesn't make them better, I bet an 18 Crosby or McDavid would school 22 year old NCAA players, just like they did in the NHL. Plus the average height and weight of a NCAA is not far off from the average CHL player.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

No, it doesn’t. I only mentioned that because I knew some people would get defensive. I’m a fan of the player, but there are so few examples of players drafted in the second round to play in the NHL before their D+2 season. Even if he was drafted late first, it’s not like many of those play in the NHL before their D+2 season either.

Yeah but it's kind of like he had an offseason anyway, and breaking in as a winger is the easiest position for a young player to handle

 

[Merrrlin]

No, it doesn’t. I only mentioned that because I knew some people would get defensive. I’m a fan of the player, but there are so few examples of players drafted in the second round to play in the NHL before their D+2 season. Even if he was drafted late first, it’s not like many of those play in the NHL before their D+2 season either.

I guess that makes him an exceptional pick then.

I believe his style+being a winger makes this a much different scenario then a skilled only winger, or a D/C. Luckily he plays a style that means they won't be relying on his offence when determining if he's worth a roster spot.

If he can be a poor man's Hyman with an opportunistic shot, that's an upgrade on Gauthier.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

That doesn't make them better, I bet an 18 Crosby or McDavid would school 22 year old NCAA players, just like they did in the NHL. Plus the average height and weight of a NCAA is not far off from the average CHL player.

Every CHL’er is as good as the two generational players from the CHL in the last 20 years.

 

[Odie Cleghorn]

I guess that makes him an exceptional pick then.

I believe his style+being a winger makes this a much different scenario then a skilled only winger, or a D/C. Luckily he plays a style that means they won't be relying on his offence when determining if he's worth a roster spot.

If he can be a poor man's Hyman with an opportunistic shot, that's an upgrade on Gauthier.

A poor man's Hyman would be an Ahler. Robertson should porduce a lot more than Hyman.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

A poor man's Hyman would be an Ahler. Robertson should porduce a lot more than Hyman.

That is kind of ridiculous seeing as Hyman was on pace for over a 30 goal season and Robertson isn't being asked to play on the 1st line.

 

[Jeffrey Pedler]

Every CHL’er is as good as the two generational players from the CHL in the last 20 years.

Where do you get that from what I said? What I said is that 18 year olds Crosby and McDavid dominated 22 year old players in the NHL, which would mean if they went the college route than they would have dominated 22 year olds in the NCAA.

Fun Facts - Team Average Weights

Here is a website of the average weight of players per team in the NCAA, there is no website to compare it to the average weight of CHL players. If you go site by site it the CHL, you can see that there are many players similar in size to their NCAA counterparts.

The only way we will ever find out which league is better is if CHL and NCAA teams played eachother. Seeing as though that will never happen, we will never know.

 

[Merrrlin]

A poor man's Hyman would be an Ahler. Robertson should porduce a lot more than Hyman.

This playoffs? I really doubt it, and I don’t think that’s reasonable to expect.

 

[LeafChief]

Nick Robertson remains on the 3rd line today at practice.

Reminder: the first (and only) exhibition game is tomorrow.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Well it certainly looks like I was (pleasantly) wrong.

Finally some crow I like the taste of.

 

[snipes]

NCAA is absolutely better than the OHL. OHL produces more NHL’ers because it has more NHL level prospects. NCAA has older, bigger, stronger players. It prepares you more for the level of the NHL than any junior hockey league would.

There is absolutely zero evidence that the NCAA and their 34-40 or so games a year better prepares players for the NHL.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

There is absolutely zero evidence that the NCAA and their 34-40 or so games a year better prepares players for the NHL.

What would constitute evidence?

I don't think this is a factual matter. I think it's an opinionated matter.

I believe that the level of NCAA hockey is higher due to the significant age advantage of the players, and it better prepares the weaknesses of most real NHL level prospects (tactical structure, getting stronger, learning to play better defense) better than any junior hockey league would.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

What would constitute evidence?

I don't think this is a factual matter. I think it's an opinionated matter.

I believe that the level of NCAA hockey is higher due to the significant age advantage of the players, and it better prepares the weaknesses of most real NHL level prospects (tactical structure, getting stronger, learning to play better defense) better than any junior hockey league would.

I mean the pure volume of players the CHL pumps out is pretty good evidence. But I think it is kind of a silly debate anyways. I don't think it is an either or situation, some players the NCAA model is more beneficial then the CHL model and some players the CHL is more beneficial then the NCAA.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I mean the pure volume of players the CHL pumps out is pretty good evidence. But I think it is kind of a silly debate anyways. I don't think it is an either or situation, some players the NCAA model is more beneficial then the CHL model and some players the CHL is more beneficial then the NCAA.

It's evidence for an opinion. There is no widely agreed upon measure of how to judge the quality of different leagues, so I don't think we are talking in anything other than opinions here.

The CHL has more NHL level talent than the NCAA. Thats why it produces more NHL'ers. I'm not sure that proves or suggests its a better league.

And I agree that it's a silly discussion. There are plenty of reasons, besides quality of leagues, why Makar and McAvoy are not good comparisons for Robertson's current situation.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

It's evidence for an opinion. There is no widely agreed upon measure of how to judge the quality of different leagues, so I don't think we are talking in anything other than opinions here.

The CHL has more NHL level talent than the NCAA. Thats why it produces more NHL'ers. I'm not sure that proves or suggests its a better league.

And I agree that it's a silly discussion. There are plenty of reasons, besides quality of leagues, why Makar and McAvoy are not good comparisons for Robertson's current situation.

Right but at the end of the day the only reason why there are not Makar's and McAvoys from the CHL in the past is that there hasn't been a global pandemic that pushed the playoffs into August. The NCAA season ends in time that the elite level prospects can make the jump. That is literally not possible with the agreement the CHL and NHL have. It has nothing to do with how NHL ready prospects are in the CHL compared to the NCAA. Do you not think Chabot could have stepped into a playoff series his 19 year old season in the CHL? Of course he could have but that was not an option for him but it was for McAvoy.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Right but at the end of the day the only reason why there are not Makar's and McAvoys from the CHL in the past is that there hasn't been a global pandemic that pushed the playoffs into August. The NCAA season ends in time that the elite level prospects can make the jump. That is literally not possible with the agreement the CHL and NHL have. It has nothing to do with how NHL ready prospects are in the CHL compared to the NCAA. Do you not think Chabot could have stepped into a playoff series his 19 year old season in the CHL? Of course he could have but that was not an option for him but it was for McAvoy.

Agreed. I didn't say otherwise.

 

[theVladiator]

There is absolutely zero evidence that the NCAA and their 34-40 or so games a year better prepares players for the NHL.

NHL season 19/20. Rookies played 40+ games coming directly from the league:

Total: 39
NCAA: 8 (3 of them of "junior" age)
CHL: 3

Considering that there are much more players coming from CHL still, the much higher percentage of CHL players actually need additional time in the AHL to prepare for NHL. In other words, NCAA products seem to be more ready overall to step right in without further "development" or "adjustments". Not to piss on the CHL, those graduates are younger on average, but if 98%+ has to go through the AHL in any case, it's difficult to give it all the credit in terms of preparing a player for the NHL even if a lot of NHLers went through it at some point.

 

[snipes]

It's evidence for an opinion. There is no widely agreed upon measure of how to judge the quality of different leagues, so I don't think we are talking in anything other than opinions here.

The CHL has more NHL level talent than the NCAA. Thats why it produces more NHL'ers. I'm not sure that proves or suggests its a better league.

And I agree that it's a silly discussion. There are plenty of reasons, besides quality of leagues, why Makar and McAvoy are not good comparisons for Robertson's current situation.

A high end draft eligible 18 year old playing in the CHL likely plays 80-95 games in their draft year [CHL season, CHL playoffs, international play (Hlinka, WJC, U-18s)].

Those lads ride the bus and get used to the grind (look at the WHL travel schedule, it makes riding the AHL circuit on the bus blush).

The CHL and it’s grind trains players for the NHL better than any league. Period. End of discussion, you’re just wrong thinking playing against the mid 20s scrub players playing 30-40 games a year in the NCAA better prepares a player for the NHL.

Take the L lad. You’re just wrong.

 

[Coaches Coroner]

A high end draft eligible 18 year old playing in the CHL likely plays 80-95 games in their draft year (CHL season, CHL playoffs, international play (Hlinka, WJC, U-18s).

Those lads ride the bus and get used to the grind (look at the WHL travel schedule, it makes riding the AHL circuit on the bus blush).

The CHL and it’s grind trains players for the NHL better than any league. Period. End of discussion, you’re just wrong thinking playing against the mid 20s scrub players playing 30-40 games a year in the NCAA better prepares a player for the NHL.

Take the L lad. You’re just wrong.

Leave him alone, he's a gold medalist in pack pedalling.