people were saying the same thing about Eeli Tolvanen before his D+1 season ended. Luckily pro scouts aren’t that volatile.
F Nicholas Robertson - Peterborough Petes, OHL (2019, 53rd, TOR)
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people were saying the same thing about Eeli Tolvanen before his D+1 season ended. Luckily pro scouts aren’t that volatile.
That’s really over-doing it.
Think of it critically for a second:
There’s a 0% chances he’s being picked before Hughes/Dach/Kakko. Full time NHLers who have massive upside.
Byram and Seider are also obvious no-go’s
So top 5 is obviously out of the question.
Tomasimo, Cozens, Poulin, McMichael, Pelletier and Kaliyev are putting up similar PPG while all having higher pedigree and much better previous seasons.
Then you have players with NHL experience where they did very well in Heinola/Bjornfoot.
Add in the other early picks that are hard to compare like the NCAA guys/Europeans
There’s really 0% chance GMs are as reactionary as fans and would all of a sudden view him as a top 5 to 10 player after a D+1 when he’s still in Junior.
As another has pointed out, posters went nuts when Tolvanen had a big D+1 and claimed he would go top 5 in a re-draft and that obviously would have been an awful choice.
Menzinger
Kessel4LadyByng
Pro scouts also tend to be wrong more times than correct
AppsSyl
Registered User
- May 28, 2015
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As mentioned previous, this kid was 4 days away from being in the 2020 draft. What he is doing is pretty impressive. He most definitely would be a top 10 pick in a redraft. Had he been born 4 days later he would be a top 10 pick in this draft if this was his draft year, and it is a much stronger draft than 2019.
Top 10 is a reach...
I drafted him on my 2 fantasy ligue, really like him as a prospect, huge D+1 and WJC but I have 15 guys I would draft before him in a re-draft
1st rounder in a Re-draft no doupt, maybe in the 15-25 but not top 10...
Hughes
Kakko
Dach
Zegras
Bryam
Seider
Knight
Krebs
Newhook
McMichael
Alex Turcotte
Ville Heinola
Thomas Harley
Matt Boldy
Viktor Soderstrom
In no order are probable drafted before him, then there are Caufield, Poldkolzin, Tomasino and few other who can go before him...
Could he be top 10 in a re-draft now? No...in 3-5 years? Maybe
I drafted him on my 2 fantasy ligue, really like him as a prospect, huge D+1 and WJC but I have 15 guys I would draft before him in a re-draft
1st rounder in a Re-draft no doupt, maybe in the 15-25 but not top 10...
Hughes
Kakko
Dach
Zegras
Bryam
Seider
Knight
Krebs
Newhook
McMichael
Alex Turcotte
Ville Heinola
Thomas Harley
Matt Boldy
Viktor Soderstrom
In no order are probable drafted before him, then there are Caufield, Poldkolzin, Tomasino and few other who can go before him...
Could he be top 10 in a re-draft now? No...in 3-5 years? Maybe
So to you people who say he is “definitely” a top 10 pick, who are all the players you’re removing for him to be in there?
As already pointed out, to non-Leaf fans players like Hughes/Dach/Kakko/Seider/Byram/Cozens/Turcotte/Poulin/Pelletier/Kaliyev/McMicheal/Heinola/Bjornfoot/Newhook/Zegras/Caulfied are obviously ahead of him (not to mention many others with very strong arguments)
So which of them has he now easily surpassed?
I know I’ll get plenty of “LOL Leaf hater” comments from leaf fans because apparently saying a prospect “only” jumps from the 50s to the 20s, but this is the same as others freaking out over Tolvanen. Great prospect having a great season, but some are getting carried away
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Coaches Coroner
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to be fair it is a little weird how often you seem to get obsessed with homer comments from a handful of Leaf fans.
Tolvanen also had red flags. He's 5'9 and has serious skating issues. Robertson is a much better skater and also has significantly more edge to his game.
Tolvanen drew a lot of criticism for his performances in the world juniors, where he had 2 measly goals in 14 games in his 18 and 19 year old tournaments.
Robertson may not go top 10 in a re-draft but I absolutely believe he has a top 15 ceiling. He's incredibly gifted and very, very young for his draft class.
If he's born a week later, were talking about a 50 goal scoring draft eligible player.
I have a problem with major homer comments in general.
I’ve also yet to see an actual list from anyone, which isn’t really surprising.
TheBeastCoast
Registered User
I think he is in the same tier that Caufield is in. Talk of where people actually slot in on a redraft one year out is just kind of silly though honestly.
Isaac Nootin
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- Sep 28, 2017
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Poulin, Pellletier, Kaliyev etc. are not obviously ahead of Robertson.
You're also getting carried away.
The Podium
Registered User
I personally dont think he would be top 10 in a redraft but a lot of those players are not "obviously ahead of him"
He's having a similar season offensively to most of those guys on your list and he has no glaring weaknesses other than size. If he was drafted in the early 20s, calling him a top 10 in a redraft wouldnt be much of a reach but there is some issues with it based mostly on pedigree.
For example, why is Pelletier "Obviously better"? He is the same size, has fewer points in 10 more games, isnt leading his league in goals, and isnt even leading his team in scoring.
When you include the past seasons for these players as well it would be very hard to put him ahead of guys having similar offensive seasons this year.
And, Q scoring is less transferable to NHL scoring according to pretty much all studies I've seen on how scoring translates, and Robertson is 6 months younger, which isn't huge but is sizable for a non-elite top of the draft players.
Pronman and Button are far from perfect, and Robertson is the type of player both are likely to overrate. Let's just assume Hughes, Kakko, and Dach stay ahead because they can't be ranked due to being in the NHL. In Pronman's ranking, he is behind Zegras, Cozens, Byram, Caufield, Seider, Kaliyev, and Soderstrom (which factoring in the 3 NHLers put him at 11). Button has Byram, Zegras, Cozens, Caufield, Knight, Podkolzin, Turcotte, and Kaliyev ahead (which puts him at 12 factoring in the 3 NHLers). Now, even myself I disagree with some, I would keep Turcotte ahead and I would probably put Kaliyev lower. But, really, this is probably the best proxy we can look at for now. Obviously, I'm curious where he is going to stand The Hockey News Future Watch. I would expect him to be a bit lower than he was on the other two lists.
Where id disagree with this, is re-drafts usually look at what a player has done since being drafted, not just pedigree.
I cant honestly say I know much about most of the guys people are spouting off as the top 15/20. Im a OHL season ticket holder so ive seen a fair bit of those guys on the list over the last few years, which I think is more than most people on these boards.
I doubt anyone on these boards has any real understanding of how these guys are doing in their respective leagues, how they look outside of the stats categories, etc. No one can honestly say they know how an 18 y.o kid in a European B league playing 10 mins a night on a 3rd pair compares to a kid in another league ripping it up. People who do it for a living have a hard time.
Saying all of this, as a Leaf fan im pumped to have him. Goal scoring, speed, some swagger and a fair bit of grit are all good.
Should he be a top # pic, who cares!
Thank you for the sanity. It'll all change again next year, and again the year after. He's doing great, he appears to have been a fantastic pick where he was taken. There isn't much more worth saying about that, esp. from people who are just stat watching.
First... I'm far from a Leafs fan (one of the teams I dislike the most in the NHL).
Now... to answer the question where would Nick Robertson go is a bit tricky, as it depends on the different team's lists. It would only take one team that really likes him to propel him in the top 15.
As to the players you listed, I already had Robertson ahead of Poulin, Pelletier, Bjornfoot, Heinola and Seider back at the draft. Obviously, it was my list and I had my reasons (I put more weight on offensive upside and don't use "size" as a factor) which may differ from what NHL teams want. Seider is probably a more desirable prospect for some teams depending on their views. My point is that the NHL draft is far from a consensus. One player could be taken at 21 and if the specific team that selected him had traded their pick he could end up selected 37 instead.
Considering his performance at the WJC and in the OHL, I think Robertson would certainly go before Pelletier, Poulin and Kaliyev. Imo, he would also go before Heinola and Bjornfot. Bjornfot's having a great season but he's probably a case of "you get what you see", I'm still not convinced about his upside. I like him because he's a surefire NHLer imo, but likely 2nd pairing. Heinola had a great camp and season start, but likewise I'm not convinced.
Anyway, where he would go could be argued at length. Imo, he'd go somewhere top 20, with a projection of 30-30 in the NHL with a playstyle half-Gallagher half-Tatar.
I think comparing him and his point totals to others in his class is a bit disingenuous. Although he is scoring at a 1.8PPG pace, which is fantastic, Robertson is having one of the best goalscoring seasons in league history. Hell, if he was 4 days younger, he’d be doing this in his draft year. Pure bonkers. 50 goals in 43 games!?!? What’re we talking about here?
That is certainly a significant accomplishment and trumps what 99% of his peers have been doing.
That is certainly a significant accomplishment and trumps what 99% of his peers have been doing.
TDK67
Registered User
- Apr 17, 2016
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I thought I was pretty explicit in saying I couldn't speak to a 2019 re-draft specifically.
My POV is entirely premised around projecting his apparent tools/skills (and early b-day as others mentioned) to NHL performance.
Assuming this isn't some hot streak/blip in Robertson's career and he really is an elite finisher + shot generator, then he likely turns into a consistent 30+ goal scorer.
From my vague recollection of the 2012-2017 drafts when I actually followed prospects a bit more closesly, I think a consistent 30-40 goal scorer usually slots into the Top 10 when doing "re-drafts" entirely because that's an elite scoring rate that most players don't reach.
E.g. only 5 players drafted in 2013 are scoring at a 30+ goal pace. 6 from 2014, 6 from 2015, & 2 from 2016.
So yea, IF Robertson turned into a regular 30+ goal guy then he's likely a Top 10 pick in most drafts.
That said, although his tools & numbers suggest he has a decent chance at that kind of career trajectory, nothing is guaranteed and I'm definitely not betting tons of money on him becoming an elite goal scorer in the NHL. Tons of potential for sure and a really tantalizing future based on his absurd goal scoring this year.
HockeyGuruPitka
Registered User
We can argue about where he would be drafted in a re-draft until we are blue in the face. The fact of the matter is this is a blue chip prospect. Absolutely elite goal scoring ability. Plays in all situations. Every team would love a shot at having him in their systems, just like any other guy whom is drafted high in the draft.
its a lot more difficult for teams to find high end talent in the 2nd round. Leafs hit a grand slam here.
its a lot more difficult for teams to find high end talent in the 2nd round. Leafs hit a grand slam here.
Merrrlin
Grab the 9 iron, Barry!
- Jul 2, 2019
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This is an excellent candidate for the Bookmark feature
I enjoyed this:
Toronto may have finally found their "Pastrnak/Kucherov" type steal. A later pick that has 1st line potential.
Should be a very interesting year for him. We've only seen him against his teenaged peers, so we will get a much better feel when we gets some time in against pros.
HockeyGuruPitka
Registered User
This is an excellent candidate for the Bookmark feature
I enjoyed this:
Toronto may have finally found their "Pastrnak/Kucherov" type steal. A later pick that has 1st line potential.
Should be a very interesting year for him. We've only seen him against his teenaged peers, so we will get a much better feel when we gets some time in against pros.
I feel like Kucherov/Pastrnak is extremely ambitious. My hope is someone like Joe Pavelski or Jeff Skinner. If he exceeds that then that is exceptional.
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LeafChief
Matthew Knies Enthusiast
Re-drafts a year out are a waste of time. Robertson looks really good. Far out-reached the expectations of many to this point.
Let's be happy with what he looks like he might be. To suggest he's a 'Kucherov/Pastrnak' is outrageous at this point in time.
With every Leaf fan over-valuing him, there are just as many non-Leafs fans undervaluing him. It's funny to see the same posters in every single thread about a Leafs prospect.
Let's be happy with what he looks like he might be. To suggest he's a 'Kucherov/Pastrnak' is outrageous at this point in time.
With every Leaf fan over-valuing him, there are just as many non-Leafs fans undervaluing him. It's funny to see the same posters in every single thread about a Leafs prospect.
This is an excellent candidate for the Bookmark feature
Toronto may have finally found their "Pastrnak/Kucherov" type steal. A later pick that has 1st line potential.
sure - might want to bookmark your own comment as well comparing Robertson to 2 of the top 10 players in the league.
Merrrlin
Grab the 9 iron, Barry!
- Jul 2, 2019
- 6,768
- 6,925
I think there is a misunderstanding here. In my comment I meantion that he could be a later round steal that turns into a 1st liner, like Kuch or Pasta. I have no expectation of him actually becoming 1 of those 2, that’s an unreasonable expectation for basically any prospect not taken 1st overall most years.
Turning non lottery picks into top of the lineup players is what gives Boston and Tampa such an edge, year after year.
