This guy is an intriguing prospect, but you can see why he’s rated where he is. I’m not 100% sure if I’d take him in the 2nd round; he’s still a gamble there, but I’d be tempted. Here are my thoughts on him:
• People get up in arms when you use the word “slow”, but is not a fast player, at all. I’m struggling to remember any of his goals where he got around a D off the rush, or scored off a breakaway and I’ve seen every goal he scored this season. I’m sure there was some, but they are few and far between, to say the least. At his size, and with how he plays the game, his lack of speed is going to be a problem at higher levels.
• He scored 51 goals this year, which is a notable achievement in the Q for a 17 year old. But, a significant amount of them were empty netters, and a significant amount of the remainder were on the power play. I’m not sure of the exact breakdown, but it’s got to be ~10 empty netters, and at least half the remainder on the power play. Like I said above, scoring off the rush was more rare for him, as was him dangling or scoring while moving at speed. There was a lot of him just hanging around the hash marks and ripping one-timers on the power play, or kind of floating toward the net from near the half wall/blue line area and ripping a wrister through traffic. It’s hard to imagine him having the same kind of success goal scoring wise at higher levels with much less time and space with where he’s at in his game currently.
• He isn’t a guy that you’d say creates his own chances all that much, and he doesn’t do anything really well aside from scoring. There is not really any other plus areas of his game. He’s kind of like another player in this draft, Cole Eiserman, except he’s smaller and slower, and his shot isn’t quite as good.
• He’s got a good shot, period. He’s quite good at getting pucks on net through traffic, and his shot is pretty accurate. He can really rip it with wristers and slap shots. However, I do have some criticisms here too. He really telegraphs his shot on the power play, like literally just stands there a lot and winds right up and rips a slap shot one-timer. Everyone knows what he’s going to do, but it’s obviously worked so far against the teams and goalies he’s been facing. I’m seriously doubtful that’s going to work at higher levels of competition. Ovechkin gets away with that stuff at the NHL level and pretty much no one else. I’m sure I don’t need to state the obvious here. Additionally, his wrist shot is good and accurate and powerful, but it seems like he takes forever to get it off a lot of times. He’s got this kind of wind up thing he does even with his wrist shots, and he seems to fire his wrist shot in a strange way as well, i.e., his shot mechanics are really awkward. He sometimes looks like he’s releasing it from directly underneath him, right in front of his feet. Again, it’s worked so far at the junior level, but he’s going to have to work on this stuff if he’s going to have success at higher levels.
• Obviously his size is not ideal. He’s built like a little tank though and he seems to be really strong on his skates and has good balance. I don’t believe he’s going to be pushed around physically, at least not to the extent that it’s a problem. He’s not physical, but he doesn’t seem to shy away from contact. I don’t remember him battling too much for pucks, but from my memory he doesn’t avoid the dirty areas or anything. But he does like the perimeter just due to the nature of his game and him being a shooter. He will, however venture into traffic on occasion and score from the dirty areas. Even with all this in mind though, his size and the aforementioned lack of speed aren’t going to do him any favours at higher levels.
A disclaimer I want to mention is that this report is based on the regular season only - I have not watched his playoffs yet, and he had a good one, scoring over a goal per game. I will watch when I can and see if there’s been any developments or changes. Without having watched though, the fact that he not only maintained his goalscoring pace, but actually ramped it up even further in the playoffs where the intensity is higher is a good sign.
