F James Hagens - Boston College, NCAA (2025 Draft)

[Steve Kournianos]

Martone isn't spending a day in the AHL as he is an OHL prospect and by the time eh ages aout he will be NHL ready if not sooner.

You want to bet me on that? He’s not generational.

Byfield, Perfetti, Clarke, Quinn, Rossi, Drysdale, Hayton all spent time in the AHL. You’re telling me Martone is a better prospect than Byfield? Perfetti had an 111-point draft season.

You also have to factor the prospect depth of the team drafting him. All the current shit teams have been shit for a while and are loaded at wing with either blue chips or depth. He’s not going to be gifted a regular shift because of where he was drafted. Martone is a late birthday, so he will get his nine games next season, go back to the OHL for 2025-26, and like Quinn play most, if not all, of his draft+2 in the AHL.

BTW, Martone just had a horrible game against Ottawa (an average team). Turnovers galore, more lazy backchecking, and a dirty (and dumb) hit in a close game that got him kicked out and suspended.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

I really don't understand the vitriol for contrary opinions. What's the point of these discussions if everyone agrees? I think Steve is making a compelling case. Disagree if you want, but why call him a no talent biased hack?

This debate is hopefully going to keep things really interesting going into June.

Thank you, but I enjoy it and welcome it, quite frankly. Look at all the information I provided, all based from well over two dozen combined viewings since last April. It provides for a balanced argument. Besides, most on this latest list of suspects are triggered from previous threads and they seem to follow me to the few threads per month I involve myself in. It’s cute.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Hagens Good Chance 11:52
Hagens Assist 15:08

Hagens might become a feature for you with Habs prospect videos next season the way things are going this season. If they get Jimmy, watch out NHL. They’ll then have the missing 1C.

 

[joe66]

The top 48 scorers have 14 points or more. Only McMichael and Svech have 14 or more. There are 22 players with 13 points after last night, including Rossi, Vilardi, Suzuki, Clarke, and Perfetti.

So the point still stands — There are 16 players 26 or younger in the top 48 in scoring, and 14 weren’t developed in the OHL.

Cut it down to the Top 25, and you have six — three NCAA and three Euros — and none from the OHL.

Don't move goalposts, that post was made before yesterday's stats were included, which were in line with your initial post.

 

[frontsfan67]

The top 48 scorers have 14 points or more. Only McMichael and Svech have 14 or more. There are 22 players with 13 points after last night, including Rossi, Vilardi, Suzuki, Clarke, and Perfetti.

So the point still stands — There are 16 players 26 or younger in the top 48 in scoring, and 14 weren’t developed in the OHL.

Cut it down to the Top 25, and you have six — three NCAA and three Euros — and none from the OHL.

I’m sure this will certainly hold up. Connor mcdavid on pace for a whopping 88 points.

First 2 months of any season don’t mean anything usually lol. Check them at the end of the year.

 

[frontsfan67]

You want to bet me on that? He’s not generational.

Nobody is saying he is generational.

Just because you’re gonna be a top 5 pick doesn’t mean you’re generational. Only “generational” players you could argue for in the league would be Crosby, Ovechkin, McDavid, Matthews, Makar, Bedard.

Top guys like MacKinnon, Kucherov, Malkin, Tkachuk, Draisaitl, Barkov etc are not generational but are putting together hall of fame resumes obviously.

Byfield, Perfetti, Clarke, Quinn, Rossi, Drysdale, Hayton all spent time in the AHL. You’re telling me Martone is a better prospect than Byfield? Perfetti had an 111-point draft season.

You also have to factor the prospect depth of the team drafting him. All the current shit teams have been shit for a while and are loaded at wing with either blue chips or depth. He’s not going to be gifted a regular shift because of where he was drafted. Martone is a late birthday, so he will get his nine games next season, go back to the OHL for 2025-26, and like Quinn play most, if not all, of his draft+2 in the AHL.

BTW, Martone just had a horrible game against Ottawa (an average team). Turnovers galore, more lazy backchecking, and a dirty (and dumb) hit in a close game that got him kicked out and suspended.

I’ve watched all those guys the only one I’d argue was better their draft year (with a stacked team and then ran into covid I believe) was Marco Rossi.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Don't move goalposts, that post was made before yesterday's stats were included, which were in line with your initial post.

Wrong.

I used Hockey Reference's skater table at 2am or 3am on early Saturday morning, after Friday's action. But they don't update the stats until 8am or 9am the next morning, meaning you pulled updated stats. FWIW, If points were tied, I used the Art Ross rule for goals scored, which is why one or two of the guys you mentioned were omitted. I checked it twice.

But these are semantics anyway, the point is that the NCAA is producing better top-end talent and recent OHL draft picks are not producing like their NCAA counterparts, which is evident in the rookie scoring I provided.

 

[wetcoast]

You want to bet me on that?

Sure I'd bet you on that but I'm still smarting on the bet I placed on Tuesday thinking that the majority of Americans were honorable people but I digress.

He’s not generational.

No one is saying that he is generational here.

Byfield, Perfetti, Clarke, Quinn, Rossi, Drysdale, Hayton all spent time in the AHL. You’re telling me Martone is a better prospect than Byfield? Perfetti had an 111-point draft season.

Yes Martone is a better prospect and more NHL ready than the players you mention.

I guess it's possible that he plays in the AHL if he misses time to a lengthy injury or some team heavy on the Wing wins the lottery bigtime but tell me which RW's on San Jose, Chicago and Philly are going to stand in his way by the time he ages out of junior?

He has size, speed, good pucks skills and plays a very transferable pro game already, he doesn't need to vastly improve any of his skills to be an NHL player very soon.

You also have to factor the prospect depth of the team drafting him. All the current shit teams have been shit for a while and are loaded at wing with either blue chips or depth. He’s not going to be gifted a regular shift because of where he was drafted. Martone is a late birthday, so he will get his nine games next season, go back to the OHL for 2025-26, and like Quinn play most, if not all, of his draft+2 in the AHL.

No I doubt that is going to happen actually as he will skyrocket to the top of the depth charts of most teams picking in the top 3 this draft.

BTW, Martone just had a horrible game against Ottawa (an average team). Turnovers galore, more lazy backchecking, and a dirty (and dumb) hit in a close game that got him kicked out and suspended.

Say it isn't so, he had a single horrible game, something that never happens to top prospects right?

 

[wetcoast]

Nobody is saying he is generational.

Just because you’re gonna be a top 5 pick doesn’t mean you’re generational. Only “generational” players you could argue for in the league would be Crosby, Ovechkin, McDavid, Matthews, Makar, Bedard.

Top guys like MacKinnon, Kucherov, Malkin, Tkachuk, Draisaitl, Barkov etc are not generational but are putting together hall of fame resumes obviously.

Agree 100% here

I’ve watched all those guys the only one I’d argue was better their draft year (with a stacked team and then ran into covid I believe) was Marco Rossi.

And Rossi had size and skating concerns along with a completely debilitating illness that wiped out his 20-21 season and was playing in a men's pro league not the aHL as I doubt that he was eligible.

After long road back, Marco Rossi reflects on the toughest year of his life

After an arduous year that saw his NHL dreams nearly lost due to complications with COVID-19, former OHL MVP Marco Rossi is back and ready to fight for his spot in the big leagues. The Minnesota Wild prospect spoke to Sportsnet about navigating the toughest year of his life, and what it means to...

www.sportsnet.ca

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Sure I'd bet you on that but I'm still smarting on the ebt I placed on Tuesday thinking that the majority of Americans were honorable people but I digress.



No one is saying that he is generational here.


Yes Martone is a better prospect and more NHL ready than the players you mention.

I guess it's possible that he plays in the AHL if he misses time to a lengthy injury or some team heavy on the Wing wins the lottery bigtime but tell me which RW's on San Jose, Chicago and Philly are going to stand in his way by the time he ages out of junior?

He has size, speed, good pucks skills and plays a very transferable pro game already, he doesn't need to vastly improve any of his skills to be an NHL player very soon.



No I doubt that is going to happen actually as he will skyrocket to the top of the depth charts of most teams picking in the top 3 this draft.



Say it isn't so, he had a single horrible game, something that never happens to top prospects right?

I suggest you spend less time betting on American politics and more time watching tape. Martone was shit today and bad trends are surfacing.

 

[wetcoast]

I suggest you spend less time betting on American politics and more time watching tape. Martone was shit today and bad trends are surfacing.

Agree on the first part but on the second part I think it's more important to look at the skillset and projection rather than make an overwhelming judgment based primarily on a single game but then again why would anyone watch a joke league like the OHL eh?

 

[montreal]

it's most of Hagens shifts

 

[montreal]

Hagens might become a feature for you with Habs prospect videos next season the way things are going this season. If they get Jimmy, watch out NHL. They’ll then have the missing 1C.

could be if he's back next year at BC and they pick him. Not a huge fan of what i've seen from Hagens so far.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Agree on the first part but on the second part I think it's more important to look at the skillset and projection rather than make an overwhelming judgment based primarily on a single game but then again why would anyone watch a joke league like the OHL eh?

It’s more than one game. There are concerning trends that have not gone away since the start of the season, and public services have mentioned this. Hagens’ issues are very limited and center mostly on not being on the puck as often, but look who his linemates are. Still, at the end of the day, there is nothing deeply “concerning” about Hagens. McKenzie mentioned size but that’s been debunked. He’s also been strong defensively and his effort never once has been less than 100 percent.

Martone has been a different animal. He is elite below the opposing dots and a fantastic dual-threat scorer, but he legit makes many mistakes with the puck nearly everywhere else, loses steam too early into shifts, and continues to take bad penalties. He was negative value on Friday and doubly worse today when his struggling team needed him. Even the game against Saginaw in which he scored twice early on was full of slow, sloppy play. The WJSS game against Hagens he was invisible while Malcolm Spence was more poised, used effective delays, went beast mode on the forecheck, and expertly killed penalties. These behaviors should not be buried by stats in a league where stats are easy to come by.

Calling the OHL “a joke league” had more to do with my frustration from a series of sloppy games in a short period while the NCAA games with Hagens were anything but. Clearly it’s a solid development option with elite players, but within the context of Martone vs Hagens and the recent trend of NCAA prospects being better in the NHL, I think it’s a step below the college game, among others.

 

[joe66]

Wrong.

I used Hockey Reference's skater table at 2am or 3am on early Saturday morning, after Friday's action. But they don't update the stats until 8am or 9am the next morning, meaning you pulled updated stats.

Only 2 of the 6 players I mentioned even played on Friday, so obviously, the other 4 would have ranked higher if their stats hadn't changed.

FWIW, If points were tied, I used the Art Ross rule for goals scored, which is why one or two of the guys you mentioned were omitted. I checked it twice.

Yeah man, move goal posts

But these are semantics anyway, the point is that the NCAA is producing better top-end talent and recent OHL draft picks are not producing like their NCAA counterparts, which is evident in the rookie scoring I provided.

Oh, sure, let's cherry-pick a tiny sample size and a fraction of the season to 'prove' that the NCAA is now the definitive producer of top-end talent. Yes, the NCAA has become more consistent at producing All-Star-level players, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Yes, the NCAA has become more consistent (better) at producing All-Star-level players, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

FIFY

 

[wetcoast]

It’s more than one game. There are concerning trends that have not gone away since the start of the season, and public services have mentioned this. Hagens’ issues are very limited and center mostly on not being on the puck as often, but look who his linemates are. Still, at the end of the day, there is nothing deeply “concerning” about Hagens. McKenzie mentioned size but that’s been debunked. He’s also been strong defensively and his effort never once has been less than 100 percent.

Martone has been a different animal. He is elite below the opposing dots and a fantastic dual-threat scorer, but he legit makes many mistakes with the puck nearly everywhere else, loses steam too early into shifts, and continues to take bad penalties. He was negative value on Friday and doubly worse today when his struggling team needed him. Even the game against Saginaw in which he scored twice early on was full of slow, sloppy play. The WJSS game against Hagens he was invisible while Malcolm Spence was more poised, used effective delays, went beast mode on the forecheck, and expertly killed penalties. These behaviors should not be buried by stats in a league where stats are easy to come by.

Calling the OHL “a joke league” had more to do with my frustration from a series of sloppy games in a short period while the NCAA games with Hagens were anything but. Clearly it’s a solid development option with elite players, but within the context of Martone vs Hagens and the recent trend of NCAA prospects being better in the NHL, I think it’s a step below the college game, among others.

Fair enough on Martone but his size, skating and elite play below the opposing dots and being a dual threat is his ticket as the other parts of his game can be taught and improved upon and he will be a top 3 pick in the 25 draft and in consideration for #1 maybe as well.

Frankly I think the bigger riser in the joke league that you call the OHL is Matthew Schaefer who is only several days away from being a 26 draft and is not only head and shoulders the best Dman available in this draft but a guy who really tilts the ice and projects as a foundational piece in the NHL for any team that has SC aspirations.

Hagens is still #1 on my list but he has always played with elite talent and I do wonder how his transition goes from NCAA powerhouse to bottom dweller in the NHL and a place like Montreal might eat him alive if he isn't an instant superstar.

 

[Artaud]

Hagens is till #1 on my list but he has always played with elite talent and I do wonder how his transition goes from NCAA powerhouse to bottom dweller in the NHL and a place like Montreal might eat him alive if he isn't an instant superstar.

The Hagens to Montreal talk reminds me of Wright in 2022. Established #1 pick centerman to a team that has been on a quest for a superstar C since Damphousse. It was not the lock people thought it to be, and the discourse brewing around Hagens also speaks of hype unlived to.

Back then the Habs went with the big winger, which they definitely could do again with Martone.

Yet, despite the apparent organisational strength at LD (Guhle and Hutson), I would bet Schaefer is the pick if the draft was tonight. The Habs are a joke on defense and the prospect pipeline is thinner than they thought.

 

[Jee]

You will look beautiful in a Habs jersey

 

[Intangir]

You want to bet me on that? He’s not generational.

Byfield, Perfetti, Clarke, Quinn, Rossi, Drysdale, Hayton all spent time in the AHL. You’re telling me Martone is a better prospect than Byfield? Perfetti had an 111-point draft season.

You also have to factor the prospect depth of the team drafting him. All the current shit teams have been shit for a while and are loaded at wing with either blue chips or depth. He’s not going to be gifted a regular shift because of where he was drafted. Martone is a late birthday, so he will get his nine games next season, go back to the OHL for 2025-26, and like Quinn play most, if not all, of his draft+2 in the AHL.

BTW, Martone just had a horrible game against Ottawa (an average team). Turnovers galore, more lazy backchecking, and a dirty (and dumb) hit in a close game that got him kicked out and suspended.

I think Martone exhibits better offensive tools right now than Byfield showed in his draft year. I really do. I'd have him much higher than Perfetti too, but let's focus on Byfield.

Simply put, I like Martone's puck-protection more, he's more aggressive and physical on the forecheck, he's also better than Byfield was in his draft year when making plays off of badly-placed passes, an underrated skill to have for sure.

But the two main reasons why I believe that Porter Martone's offensive skills trump those that Byfield showed throughout 2019-2020 are the elite-level shot and release Martone has, as well as his higher Hockey IQ.

Watch Byfield in his draft year play, and you'll see a player that possesses an even stronger blend of size/skating/strength than Martone has, which is really saying something. If you watch further you'll see that Byfield in 2020 liked to carry the puck a lot, challenge defenders with his puck-handling, extend plays with his tremendous reach/size/skating, and then either pass to create high-danger scoring chances, or cycle with his team and get set-up himself.

A lot of the toolset that Byfield showed was high-end, and the way it came together coherently was a sight to behold, but I'd argue that aside from the physical aspects there wasn't much to Byfield's offensive game back then that tracked to be elite by NHL standards.

If you then watch Martone play the differences will be even clearer. Martone is a versatile offensive player and CAN be a a primary puck-handler if you want him to. But that's not his best skillset, and you won't get the best out of him this way.

The best part of Martone's game is the off-puck offensive play, and how he's an ELITE puck-support type of offensive player that is also extremely versatile with the puck on his stick, very physically-punishing along the boards, and a massive threat to score anytime he's on the ice.

Pair Martone with a good primary puck-handler at the NHL level (a guy like Leo Carlsson for example if Anaheim drafts him) and chances are that Martone will do extremely well for you, help out with possession, be a daunting netfront presence, bring goalscoring, physical play, you name it.

And that more defined offensive game of his makes me rate Martone higher on a pure offensive standpoint than Byfield in his draft year.

I genuinely think that Martone could end up being a Corey Perry-esque player in the NHL, and that to me is a player you take VERY high in the draft.

But Byfield being so young for his draft year, vs. Martone being an October birthday, and possessing such an incredibly rare blend of size/skating/athleticism while also projecting to be a center at the NHL level (and much better defensively than Martone) would probably make me rank him ever-so-slightly ahead of Martone if we look purely at prospect status.

On another note, while I agree with everything you've just said regarding the timeline for Martone to reach the NHL and what will most likely happen after the draft for him, I also think the one game sample size you've used is quite disingenuous.

Even HHOFers have nights where they play horribly nevermind an 18 year-old in the OHL.

EDIT: Forgot this was the Hagens thread for a solid minute (more than that, but I ain't admitting to more than the minute).

I like Hagens less than Martone, but anyone of the top 4 (Martone, Hagens, Schaefer, and Misa in that order for me) would be an amazing pick for the Canadiens.

 

[HeadLiceHatty]

You will look beautiful in a Habs jersey

Whoever gets this guy will be lucky but tbh the #1 pick is still 100% up for grabs

I think Martone exhibits better offensive tools right now than Byfield showed in his draft year. I really do. I'd have him much higher than Perfetti too, but let's focus on Byfield.

Simply put, I like Martone's puck-protection more, he's more aggressive and physical on the forecheck, he's also better than Byfield was in his draft year when making plays off of badly-placed passes, an underrated skill to have for sure.

But the two main reasons why I believe that Porter Martone's offensive skills trump those that Byfield showed throughout 2019-2020 are the elite-level shot and release Martone has, as well as his higher Hockey IQ.

Watch Byfield in his draft year play, and you'll see a player that possesses an even stronger blend of size/skating/strength than Martone has, which is really saying something. If you watch further you'll see that Byfield in 2020 liked to carry the puck a lot, challenge defenders with his puck-handling, extend plays with his tremendous reach/size/skating, and then either pass to create high-danger scoring chances, or cycle with his team and get set-up himself.

A lot of the toolset that Byfield showed was high-end, and the way it came together coherently was a sight to behold, but I'd argue that aside from the physical aspects there wasn't much to Byfield's offensive game back then that tracked to be elite by NHL standards.

If you then watch Martone play the differences will be even clearer. Martone is a versatile offensive player and CAN be a a primary puck-handler if you want him to. But that's not his best skillset, and you won't get the best out of him this way.

The best part of Martone's game is the off-puck offensive play, and how he's an ELITE puck-support type of offensive player that is also extremely versatile with the puck on his stick, very physically-punishing along the boards, and a massive threat to score anytime he's on the ice.

Pair Martone with a good primary puck-handler at the NHL level (a guy like Leo Carlsson for example if Anaheim drafts him) and chances are that Martone will do extremely well for you, help out with possession, be a daunting netfront presence, bring goalscoring, physical play, you name it.

And that more defined offensive game of his makes me rate Martone higher on a pure offensive standpoint than Byfield in his draft year.

I genuinely think that Martone could end up being a Corey Perry-esque player in the NHL, and that to me is a player you take VERY high in the draft.

But Byfield being so young for his draft year, vs. Martone being an October birthday, and possessing such an incredibly rare blend of size/skating/athleticism while also projecting to be a center at the NHL level (and much better defensively than Martone) would probably make me rank him ever-so-slightly ahead of Martone if we look purely at prospect status.

On another note, while I agree with everything you've just said regarding the timeline for Martone to reach the NHL and what will most likely happen after the draft for him, I also think the one game sample size you've used is quite disingenuous.

Even HHOFers have nights where they play horribly nevermind an 18 year-old in the OHL.

EDIT: Forgot this was the Hagens thread for a solid minute (more than that, but I ain't admitting to more than the minute).

I like Hagens less than Martone, but anyone of the top 4 (Martone, Hagens, Schaefer, and Misa in that order for me) would be an amazing pick for the Canadiens.

For anyone, this draft is loaded at the top.

 

[montreal]

Hagens Shot 3:53
Hagens Shot 10:23
Hagens Give and Go 11:21
Hagens Bats Puck 13:52
Hagens Spinning Chance 14:21

 

[Anardil]

There are currently 17 players who are 26 or younger in the Top-50 in scoring.

8 went the NCAA or NTDP route
5 from Europe
2 from the WHL
1 from the QMJHL
1 from the OHL

Rookie scoring Top-20 (though Sat.)

8 from the NCAA/NTDP
4 from Europe
3 from the WHL
3 from the OHL
2 from the QMJHL

Last year there were 22 in the top-50 at 26 or younger

7 from the NCAA/NTDP
7 from Europe (counting Matthews who aged out of the NTDP)
6 from the OHL (counting Tkachuk who aged out of the NTDP)
2 from the WHL

2023-24 Top-20 rookie scoring

7 from the NCAA/NTDP
4 from the OHL
4 from the WHL
3 from Europe
1 from the USHL
1 from the QMJHL

There is no bias. Just facts.

The OHL is not superior to the NCAA by the simple fact that there isn't a universe where the average 17-year-old defenseman or an 18-year-old goalie from the CHL is better, stronger, faster, smarter, and more developed than the average 22-year-old defenseman or 24-year-old goalie in college. The SCSU team Hagens faced last weekend had over a dozen 22-year-olds and five were 24. How many 23-year-old goalies does Martone face per weekend? If Kitchener plays SCSU 10 times, the Huskies are taking the series without question.

That helps explain why there is the age cutoff for North Americans at the draft. Why can a team draft a triple-overager from Europe but not one from North America? It's the dumbest rule, but one designed partly to ensure more CHL kids are drafted than Europeans and NCAA prospects. A triple-overager in the CHL, i.e., a kid in his third look for the draft, is a rarity to begin with since they're already old enough for an AHL or ECHL contract. Conversely, the NCAA triple-overager is the rule and the exception, and teams know the player is more likely to honor the scholarship and finish his degree before ending up in the same place.

Tyler Boucher was a top-10 pick, albeit a bad one. Still, he went to BU and had 3 points in 17 games. So he quit the team and went to the London Knights and had 14 points in 24 games. Chaz Lucius averaged under a point a game as a frosh at Minnesota, then went to Portland in the Dub and averaged almost three points a game.

Teams drafting more CHL'ers is a recent trend after it bottomed out in 2019 -- the first time the USHL by itself without the NTDP out-drafted the OHL. Since then, we've seen a CHL spike and a dip in Russians, but that has not translated to NHL success. At least not yet. The 2021 OHL class is probably the best of the recent bunch.

Outside of London and maybe Kitchener, the quality in play in the OHL has become sloppy and there seems like there is very little structure with a lot of individualism. The Quebec Remparts under Roy exposed this in 2023 as they were insanely structured while Peterborough hung on for dear life and were only in games because of the goalie. Hamilton had great teams but crumbled in the tournament twice. Saginaw last year was a host team with all that rest, but they were the first OHL team to win it in years. I think London and Oshawa were the last OHL teams to win the Memorial Cup without hosting it and that was almost a decade ago. Not the end-all, be-all but part of the issue with overall quality of play in the OHL. London was a powerhouse but they are professionally structured so winning the MC would have been well deserved.

The college game is faster, meaner, and you get a ton of close games because of the structure and goaltending.

Tonight, 15 of the 56 D1 teams in action scored four or more goals. The OHL had seven, with 16 teams playing. Do the math.

That's why Hagens has 11 points in seven games and Martone has 32 in 15.

So ask the question -- why are the top NCAA players with lesser stats in college scoring more in the NHL than the top OHL-trained players with beefed-up numbers in junior?

Just one point.

You separate the CHL leagues, but keep the NCAA as a single entity. That is a slightly sneaky way to skew the numbers to support your argument.

I personally don't care where players come from, but you should compare the NCAA and the CHL the same way. Either as a single entity, or by separate leagues/conferences.

 

[Leviathan899]

While I see the underlying logic and also am somewhat partial to the NCAA route overall…and still think Hagens is definitely worthy of the #1 pick at this point - and that is unlikely to change…

…the OHL is probably on a pretty solid track as things stand to have 3 of the top 4 or 5 picks in this draft. And while it’s an outlier and yadda yadda…just feels weird to dump on the OHL’s luster when they are about to send Martone, Misa and Schaefer to the lottery podium. I mean…this looks like a loaded CHL crop.

Especially after a year where the CHL cleaned up in the first round, and an abominable draft for USA hockey overall.

 

[covfefe]

There are currently 17 players who are 26 or younger in the Top-50 in scoring.

8 went the NCAA or NTDP route
5 from Europe
2 from the WHL
1 from the QMJHL
1 from the OHL

Rookie scoring Top-20 (though Sat.)

8 from the NCAA/NTDP
4 from Europe
3 from the WHL
3 from the OHL
2 from the QMJHL

Last year there were 22 in the top-50 at 26 or younger

7 from the NCAA/NTDP
7 from Europe (counting Matthews who aged out of the NTDP)
6 from the OHL (counting Tkachuk who aged out of the NTDP)
2 from the WHL

2023-24 Top-20 rookie scoring

7 from the NCAA/NTDP
4 from the OHL
4 from the WHL
3 from Europe
1 from the USHL
1 from the QMJHL

There is no bias. Just facts.

The OHL is not superior to the NCAA by the simple fact that there isn't a universe where the average 17-year-old defenseman or an 18-year-old goalie from the CHL is better, stronger, faster, smarter, and more developed than the average 22-year-old defenseman or 24-year-old goalie in college. The SCSU team Hagens faced last weekend had over a dozen 22-year-olds and five were 24. How many 23-year-old goalies does Martone face per weekend? If Kitchener plays SCSU 10 times, the Huskies are taking the series without question.

That helps explain why there is the age cutoff for North Americans at the draft. Why can a team draft a triple-overager from Europe but not one from North America? It's the dumbest rule, but one designed partly to ensure more CHL kids are drafted than Europeans and NCAA prospects. A triple-overager in the CHL, i.e., a kid in his third look for the draft, is a rarity to begin with since they're already old enough for an AHL or ECHL contract. Conversely, the NCAA triple-overager is the rule and the exception, and teams know the player is more likely to honor the scholarship and finish his degree before ending up in the same place.

Tyler Boucher was a top-10 pick, albeit a bad one. Still, he went to BU and had 3 points in 17 games. So he quit the team and went to the London Knights and had 14 points in 24 games. Chaz Lucius averaged under a point a game as a frosh at Minnesota, then went to Portland in the Dub and averaged almost three points a game.

Teams drafting more CHL'ers is a recent trend after it bottomed out in 2019 -- the first time the USHL by itself without the NTDP out-drafted the OHL. Since then, we've seen a CHL spike and a dip in Russians, but that has not translated to NHL success. At least not yet. The 2021 OHL class is probably the best of the recent bunch.

Outside of London and maybe Kitchener, the quality in play in the OHL has become sloppy and there seems like there is very little structure with a lot of individualism. The Quebec Remparts under Roy exposed this in 2023 as they were insanely structured while Peterborough hung on for dear life and were only in games because of the goalie. Hamilton had great teams but crumbled in the tournament twice. Saginaw last year was a host team with all that rest, but they were the first OHL team to win it in years. I think London and Oshawa were the last OHL teams to win the Memorial Cup without hosting it and that was almost a decade ago. Not the end-all, be-all but part of the issue with overall quality of play in the OHL. London was a powerhouse but they are professionally structured so winning the MC would have been well deserved.

The college game is faster, meaner, and you get a ton of close games because of the structure and goaltending.

Tonight, 15 of the 56 D1 teams in action scored four or more goals. The OHL had seven, with 16 teams playing. Do the math.

That's why Hagens has 11 points in seven games and Martone has 32 in 15.

So ask the question -- why are the top NCAA players with lesser stats in college scoring more in the NHL than the top OHL-trained players with beefed-up numbers in junior?

This guy ranked Ian Mitchell ahead of Cale Makar