F James Hagens - Boston College, NCAA (2025 Draft) Part 2

[Breakers]

I watched Hagens enough this year including Beanpot and Umass last night and I think he’s a notch( might be 2) below Cooley which is my comparison . He disappears a lot in games and hasn’t been as dominant as I thought he would be . It’s a tough draft because I would take him over Martone in a second but Hagens( i have him third ) is playing college hockey next year - not ready - NHL .

Yeah he was at the beanpot

Leonard was crazy motivated and wanted it

Leonard even stepped in when Willander decked Hagens

He was like aloof in a pretty important game

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

Shane Wright has more points this season than Slafkovsky playing 3+ minutes less per game. He’s a clear top 5 player from the 2022 draft, and you can probably argue all the way up to #2. Shane Wright would’ve been an absolutely fine pick at 1OA compared to what Montreal got, and what’s realistic to expect out of a 1OA.

Here are some of the 1OA’s since 2010 (14 drafts): Taylor Hall, RNH, Nail Yakupov, Aaron Ekblad, Nico Hischier, Alexis Lafreniere, Owen Power, Juraj Slafkovsky.

You realize the median outcome of a 1OA is like Hischier/Ekblad and not McDavid or Matthews? There’s nothing wrong with the level of Hagens for 1OA. He would not even be close to the worst 1OA in that stretch. Would probably be in the middle of that group of 14 pre-draft.

Being compared to Shane Wright has become a bad thing, and it’s such an unfair narrative to him (and whoever he’s compared to). Maybe if you thought he would be a generational player he’s a disappointment, but you could say the same about Bedard. Wasn’t a generational talent, got unfairly anointed as such, and now he’s looked at as a disappointment because he didn’t reach an unfair bar. You could say the same thing about most high picks. Very few actually become as good as their perceived ceiling.

The question on Wright should have been about attitude. He thought he had nothing to work on. Would he be a dud because he refused to work on his weaknesses. Maybe not going 1st woke him up and he realized he had more to learn.

 

[Fyodorov]

I watched Hagens enough this year including Beanpot and Umass last night and I think he’s a notch( might be 2) below Cooley which is my comparison . He disappears a lot in games and hasn’t been as dominant as I thought he would be . It’s a tough draft because I would take him over Martone in a second but Hagens( i have him third ) is playing college hockey next year - not ready - NHL .

Can't agree at all TBH. As someone who watched Cooley a lot, including attending USNTDP games, he was much worse than Hagens in his D-1 and was still at a stage of doing a lot of low percentage junior hockey plays in the USHL. Finished product Logan Cooley is far away from that but he wasn't that back then.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Can't agree at all TBH. As someone who watched Cooley a lot, including attending USNTDP games, he was much worse than Hagens in his D-1 and was still at a stage of doing a lot of low percentage junior hockey plays in the USHL. Finished product Logan Cooley is far away from that but he wasn't that back then.

Cooley must have had one hell of an offseason then, because 18 year old, D+1, freshman Cooley was incredible. I feel like saying Hagens isn't even close, but that would be a little unfair to Hagens. I don't think it's debatable who had a better freshman year though (yes Hagens season isn't over yet).

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Cooley must have had one hell of an offseason then, because 18 year old, D+1, freshman Cooley was incredible. I feel like saying Hagens isn't even close, but that would be a little unfair to Hagens. I don't think it's debatable who had a better freshman year though (yes Hagens season isn't over yet).

Imagine that? Players are better in their DY+1 than DY. Crazy.

 

[frontsfan67]

what a pass

 

[montreal]

Hagens Shot 1:33
Hagens Goal 7:31

I don't think he had the best weekend but still managed to pick up 2 pts.

 

[Kshahdoo]

8+23 after 29 games played doesn't look very promissing... I mean it's very good for a kid in his D season, but not for a top 3 or even 5 prospect.

 

[wetcoast]

8+23 after 29 games played doesn't look very promissing... I mean it's very good for a kid in his D season, but not for a top 3 or even 5 prospect.

I guess that's the difference between stat watchers and scouts who actually watch the player then eh?

 

[Kshahdoo]

I guess that's the difference between stat watchers and scouts who actually watch the player then eh?

So stats don't matter?

 

[Mathieukferland]

I guess that's the difference between stat watchers and scouts who actually watch the player then eh?

I saw him in person in Ottawa, I actually came away less impressed seeing him in the building than I was watching the u18s or the other WJC games on television

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

So stats don't matter?

So then what's your opinion of the statistical regression of Perreault and Leonard?

Same three guys that just lit up the World Juniors. Are they all worse or maybe there's context there that statistical totals don't explain?

For the record, a lot of people seem to think Leonard will win the Hobey Baker. He wasn't close last season and his stats have went backwards this season. How the heck could that happen?

 

[wetcoast]

So stats don't matter?

Not as much as scouting and context always matters too.

 

[Kshahdoo]

So then what's your opinion of the statistical regression of Perreault and Leonard?

Same three guys that just lit up the World Juniors. Are they all worse or maybe there's context there that statistical totals don't explain?

For the record, a lot of people seem to think Leonard will win the Hobey Baker. He wasn't close last season and his stats have went backwards this season. How the heck could that happen?

Players don't regress because they are good, that's for sure.

Not as much as scouting and context always matters too.

Everything matters, but stats matter the most for scouts, experts, and general public.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Players don't regress because they are good, that's for sure.

Okay, but don't you understand the difference between a general regression and a statistical regression?

If McDavid has a worse scoring year than before, is he a worse hockey player? Or maybe situationally players simply can't up their stats literally every season?

 

[Kshahdoo]

Okay, but don't you understand the difference between a general regression and a statistical regression?

If McDavid has a worse scoring year than before, is he a worse hockey player? Or maybe situationally players simply can't up their stats literally every season?

It could be fluctuation, or it could actually mean he became older and worse.

When it comes to young kids, it's about the same. Of course they don't usually become worse because they become older. It's just other kids progress, and they don't.

 

[HawksDub89]

8+23 after 29 games played doesn't look very promissing... I mean it's very good for a kid in his D season, but not for a top 3 or even 5 prospect.

This is how I feel too. It’s not a bad year by any means, but relative to the top 4?

Honestly right now he’s closer to 4 for me than he is 2.

I’d go Schaefer, Misa Hagens/Martone.

And I might be leaning Martone > Hagens at the moment.

I guess that's the difference between stat watchers and scouts who actually watch the player then eh?

I get what you’re saying, because I find stat watching annoying as well. But I’ve watched a handful of games and have come away a little underwhelmed.

At some point the stats validate what you’re watching, like it or not.

Full disclosure, I still think Hagens will be a good NHLer, but how good? What’s the ceiling compared to others?

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Okay, but don't you understand the difference between a general regression and a statistical regression?

If McDavid has a worse scoring year than before, is he a worse hockey player? Or maybe situationally players simply can't up their stats literally every season?

Seems like Leonard's stats are down because he doesn't have as good of a center as last season.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Seems like Leonard's stats are down because he doesn't have as good of a center as last season.

Well, he’s playing with Andre Gasseau right now, so yes obviously he’s not as good as Smith.

BC isn’t anywhere near as offensive this year. It’s not last year’s team. They’re playing an all time difficult schedule and they’ve mixed and matched lines all year trying to find good combinations. Haven’t found many. And their PP sucks because they don’t have any defensemen that can run a PP.

Hagens even strength numbers are right there with any of the DY NCAA players. His PP numbers are kind of weak, but that’s the whole team. No one has regressed. They’re very good offensively and kind of mediocre offensively. People seem to think they score like 6 goals a game and they just don’t.

 

[Wieters]

Everything matters, but stats matter the most for scouts, experts, and general public.

One of these things is not like the other... The general public are the group that hyperfocus on box score statistics because they don't have the bandwidth to watch much tape, and even if they did, they wouldn't know what their eyes are looking at. Which is why the majority of comments about a prospect as high profile as James Hagens are simply regurgitations of his goals/assists without more.

Do you think that in real draft rooms, scouts/experts are simply walking in, referencing the goals/assists scored the night prior, and then calling it a day? There would be no need for scouts/experts if that was the case. Box score statistics might be one of the first things they mention as a starting point, but they require context and are far from dispositive or even the most important indicator.

 

[Kshahdoo]

One of these things is not like the other... The general public are the group that hyperfocus on box score statistics because they don't have the bandwidth to watch much tape, and even if they did, they wouldn't know what their eyes are looking at. Which is why the majority of comments about a prospect as high profile as James Hagens are simply regurgitations of his goals/assists without more.

Do you think that in real draft rooms, scouts/experts are simply walking in, referencing the goals/assists scored the night prior, and then calling it a day? There would be no need for scouts/experts if that was the case. Box score statistics might be one of the first things they mention as a starting point, but they require context and are far from dispositive or even the most important indicator.

If you're like 20-30 points behind kids from other drafts and score just 8 goals, you'll have hard time to convince any scout you're a 1OA material. Maybe on a really bad draft you are, but this draft has some interesting kids.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

If you're like 20-30 points behind kids from other drafts and score just 8 goals, you'll have hard time to convince any scout you're a 1OA material. Maybe on a really bad draft you are, but this draft has some interesting kids.

9 goals isn't in like 50 games. It's in 29 games. That's a 23 goal pace over 82 games. Obviously a little low, but it's not as low as it seems because the team doesn't play that many games.

Here is his SH% compared to the other leading BC forwards:

Hagens: 9.9%
Leonard: 16.7%
Perreault: 13.2%
Stiga: 14.1%
Gasseau: 14.9%
Jellvik: 10.3%
Vote: 21.6%

There is literally no way he's a less successful goal scorer than Oscar Jellvik and Andre Gasseau. The way SH% works is that some guys have luck go their way in a small sample and others don't. BC hasn't played that many games, so people way overanalyze his goal totals, but more likely he's just been unlucky and should be shooting about 5% higher and have another 2, 3, 4 goals in those 29 games.

Anyone who tries to fixate on 9 goals in 29 games is being stupid. He had 5 goals in 7 WJC games. Shot nearly double his current BC SH% there. Sometimes the puck goes in, and other times it doesn't. If you add the WJC games (I don't know why you wouldn't as they are important games he played this season), he's at a 32 goal pace per 82 games. For a draft eligible playmaking center playing at a level of hockey virtually no other 2025 eligibles have been playing at this season, that's far from a bad pace.

And fixating on stats compared to other prior comparables is how you get conclusions like Adam Fantilli will be a better player than Jack Eichel. After all, he had a better PPG in his draft year. People told me that he would be a better version of Eichel. Fast forward to the NHL and Fantilli is pacing for 30 less points per 82 in his second year than Eichel (12 less per 82 his first season). They were never remotely close. Anyone that actually followed would've told you that Fantilli was padding his stats on a great team that played a weak early season schedule (11 points in 4 games he had against Lindenwood and Lake Superior State). Meanwhile, Eichel was carrying a pretty average team.

It was truly an intelligence test, like the case of Hagens. Hagens has decent stats on a team playing the hardest schedule in the NCAA by far. His teammates stats are down from his season too. These are players (Leonard and Perreault) that are widely regarded as two of the best drafted prospects not currently in the NHL. All three of them ripped up the WJC, and Leonard despite his weaker stats this year might win the Hobey Baker (he didn't get close to winning it last year). BC is not really a high scoring team. They have a very weak PP because they have no PPQB. Hagens even strength numbers are right in line with those players you cite. The difference is his team is playing a much more difficult schedule and his team has a bad PP. Believing that means he's peaked and is now worse than players he's kept pace with (or at least come close to) due to one respectable yet not great scoring season is a test of who has common sense and who just looks at stats and thinks EP and spreadsheets can always decide who the best players are.

 

[Kshahdoo]

9 goals isn't in like 50 games. It's in 29 games. That's a 23 goal pace over 82 games. Obviously a little low, but it's not as low as it seems because the team doesn't play that many games.

Here is his SH% compared to the other leading BC forwards:

Hagens: 9.9%
Leonard: 16.7%
Perreault: 13.2%
Stiga: 14.1%
Gasseau: 14.9%
Jellvik: 10.3%
Vote: 21.6%

There is literally no way he's a less successful goal scorer than Oscar Jellvik and Andre Gasseau. The way SH% works is that some guys have luck go their way in a small sample and others don't. BC hasn't played that many games, so people way overanalyze his goal totals, but more likely he's just been unlucky and should be shooting about 5% higher and have another 2, 3, 4 goals in those 29 games.

Anyone who tries to fixate on 9 goals in 29 games is being stupid. He had 5 goals in 7 WJC games. Shot nearly double his current BC SH% there. Sometimes the puck goes in, and other times it doesn't. If you add the WJC games (I don't know why you wouldn't as they are important games he played this season), he's at a 32 goal pace per 82 games. For a draft eligible playmaking center playing at a level of hockey virtually no other 2025 eligibles have been playing at this season, that's far from a bad pace.

And fixating on stats compared to other prior comparables is how you get conclusions like Adam Fantilli will be a better player than Jack Eichel. After all, he had a better PPG in his draft year. People told me that he would be a better version of Eichel. Fast forward to the NHL and Fantilli is pacing for 30 less points per 82 in his second year than Eichel (12 less per 82 his first season). They were never remotely close. Anyone that actually followed would've told you that Fantilli was padding his stats on a great team that played a weak early season schedule (11 points in 4 games he had against Lindenwood and Lake Superior State). Meanwhile, Eichel was carrying a pretty average team.

It was truly an intelligence test, like the case of Hagens. Hagens has decent stats on a team playing the hardest schedule in the NCAA by far. His teammates stats are down from his season too. These are players (Leonard and Perreault) that are widely regarded as two of the best drafted prospects not currently in the NHL. All three of them ripped up the WJC, and Leonard despite his weaker stats this year might win the Hobey Baker (he didn't get close to winning it last year). BC is not really a high scoring team. They have a very weak PP because they have no PPQB. Hagens even strength numbers are right in line with those players you cite. The difference is his team is playing a much more difficult schedule and his team has a bad PP. Believing that means he's peaked and is now worse than players he's kept pace with (or at least come close to) due to one respectable yet not great scoring season is a test of who has common sense and who just looks at stats and thinks EP and spreadsheets can always decide who the best players are.

As to Fantilli, check his stats with Marchenko and Voronkov, and all of a sudden it's like it matters who you play with. Eichel was 1C for Buffalo, Fantilli isn't for Columbus.

 

[Just Linda]

If you're like 20-30 points behind kids from other drafts and score just 8 goals, you'll have hard time to convince any scout you're a 1OA material. Maybe on a really bad draft you are, but this draft has some interesting kids.

I agree with the first half, not remotely with the second half.

Fantilli has 1.8 points per game
Celebrini had 1.7 points per game
Hagens has 1.1 points per game

It's a big gap between him and other first overall draft picks' numbers.

Stats aren't the whole story and guys like Brady Tkachuk are a good example of college numbers not being a good indicator of a player's value. But yeah, saying that we expected more is a far thing to say, he's had a pretty disappointing year in a lot of ways. I expected more from him.

But the part I disagree is... there's no true number 1, superstar talent in this draft. Hagens going off and going beast mode to end the season could cement him still as the first overall pick, this is the year where any of the contenders are a performance away from stealing the podium. If Misa has a record setting post season, it could be his. If Schaefer comes back and looks phenomenal, it could be his.

This is the 'bad' draft.

 

[Oscar The Grouch]

Kid is barely over PPG on a stacked team and I'm supposed to get wet?

Pass