F Ivan Demidov - SKA St. Petersburg, KHL (2024, 5th, MTL)

[BuiumSaveUs]

That's fair, but there was a bit more smoke with respect to Michkov than Demidov. He goes a lot higher if he doesn't allegedly tell the teams that pick at #4 and #5 that he didn't have interest in playing there.

There's a chance that Demidov could fall due to Russian factor, KHL factor, C/D > W bias; but it feels like he's pretty much universally understood to be the second best player in this class.

I'd be shocked if he fell outside the top 5, this class doesn't have Fantilli/Carlsson level heavy hitters as consolation prizes.

While I agree that he is, this is far from the case. Pronman had him as his 8th ranked skater and he’s been very on the ball in terms of how the draft goes in recent years. https://theathletic.com/5237141/202...n-ranking-pronman/?source=user_shared_article
He’s 6th on bob Mckenzie’s scout poll… Macklin Celebrini the unanimous No. 1 prospect in Bob McKenzie's mid-season draft ranking | TSN

 

[cheechoo]

While I agree that he is, this is far from the case. Pronman had him as his 8th ranked skater and he’s been very on the ball in terms of how the draft goes in recent years. https://theathletic.com/5237141/202...n-ranking-pronman/?source=user_shared_article
He’s 6th on bob Mckenzie’s scout poll… Macklin Celebrini the unanimous No. 1 prospect in Bob McKenzie's mid-season draft ranking | TSN

FWIW, his consolidated rank up until this point is #2 in the class only behind Celebrini. That's the list accumulation of 10+ of the most accredited networks.

Elite Prospects - NHL Draft Center CONSOLIDATED RANKING TOP 32

CONSOLIDATED RANKING TOP 32 - for the NHL Entry Draft

www.eliteprospects.com

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

FWIW, his consolidated rank up until this point is #2 in the class only behind Celebrini. That's the list accumulation of 10+ of the most accredited networks.

Elite Prospects - NHL Draft Center CONSOLIDATED RANKING TOP 32

CONSOLIDATED RANKING TOP 32 - for the NHL Entry Draft

www.eliteprospects.com

There’s a lot of people in there whose rankings may be close to right when it’s all said and done, but not close to how the draft is actually going to go.

 

[majormajor]

There's a chance that Demidov could fall due to Russian factor, KHL factor, C/D > W bias; but it feels like he's pretty much universally understood to be the second best player in this class.

Universally understood? Not even close to that. I'd say he's not understood by most scouts to be the second best player. There's more of a variety of favorites at #2.

 

[coooldude]

That's fair, but there was a bit more smoke with respect to Michkov than Demidov. He goes a lot higher if he doesn't allegedly tell the teams that pick at #4 and #5 that he didn't have interest in playing there.

There's a chance that Demidov could fall due to Russian factor, KHL factor, C/D > W bias; but it feels like he's pretty much universally understood to be the second best player in this class.

I'd be shocked if he fell outside the top 5, this class doesn't have Fantilli/Carlsson level heavy hitters as consolation prizes.

No, he might be universally understood to be the second-best skill forward in this class, but "best player" is a highly subjective claim that is not defensible. Given the depth and strength of the D, I don't think Demidov is universally understood to go 2OA nor to be the "second best player."

And the Catton truthers might disagree on him being the second-best skill forward, unless they and the Demidov truthers agree that both are better than Celebrini. Which would be a stretch, but not unheard of on HFB.

 

[WeThreeKings]

The guy does have a point - I think it is very likely that Demidov is the 3rd forward off the board.

Celebrini is going at 1. The next forward going is likely going to be Lindstrom - why? He's a center, that's value for teams. His production was very good pre injury. He's also a big, athletic and competitive prospect. That is going to land higher than a Russian winger playing in the MHL for NHL teams and scouts.

The question is when does Lindstrom go and which defenseman go ahead of Lindstrom and Demidov.

I think you can pretty much guarantee that Dickinson and Levshunov are going in the top 4 picks. Silayev was 2 on Bob's poll, so I think its safe to say that as long as that holds, he is the 3rd defenseman off the board when those two go (teams will go for the shorter contract and NA born players here).

Then Pronman is pretty convinced 4 defenseman are going in the top 6 and that 4th defenseman is Yakemchuk. Then you have the wildcards in Parekh and Buium who Pronman mentioned as the 6 defenseman who will go in the top 10.

The other thing that I would look at is - who will be picking in the top 10.

Chicago could use anything but there's more holes in their defense prospects than forward prospects in their pool. 50/50 they go F or D.
San Jose hasn't taken a defenseman in the first round in what seems like forever, if they don't win the Celebrini lottery, they are definitely taking a defenseman.
Anaheim has been rebuilding since light bulbs were invented, they are 50/50 in any direction since their pool is full everywhere but I do think they'd slant defense after moving Drysdale for Gauthier and drafting Carlsson last year.
Columbus seems like a good bet to go forward but could go either way.
Arizona could go either direction but would think defense would remain a priority for them over another smaller skilled forward.
Ottawa would be dumb to do anything but defense.
Montreal will be taking a forward.

 

[coooldude]

The guy does have a point - I think it is very likely that Demidov is the 3rd forward off the board.

Celebrini is going at 1. The next forward going is likely going to be Lindstrom - why? He's a center, that's value for teams. His production was very good pre injury. He's also a big, athletic and competitive prospect. That is going to land higher than a Russian winger playing in the MHL for NHL teams and scouts.

The question is when does Lindstrom go and which defenseman go ahead of Lindstrom and Demidov.

I think you can pretty much guarantee that Dickinson and Levshunov are going in the top 4 picks. Silayev was 2 on Bob's poll, so I think its safe to say that as long as that holds, he is the 3rd defenseman off the board when those two go (teams will go for the shorter contract and NA born players here).

Then Pronman is pretty convinced 4 defenseman are going in the top 6 and that 4th defenseman is Yakemchuk. Then you have the wildcards in Parekh and Buium who Pronman mentioned as the 6 defenseman who will go in the top 10.

The other thing that I would look at is - who will be picking in the top 10.

Chicago could use anything but there's more holes in their defense prospects than forward prospects in their pool. 50/50 they go F or D.
San Jose hasn't taken a defenseman in the first round in what seems like forever, if they don't win the Celebrini lottery, they are definitely taking a defenseman.
Anaheim has been rebuilding since light bulbs were invented, they are 50/50 in any direction since their pool is full everywhere but I do think they'd slant defense after moving Drysdale for Gauthier and drafting Carlsson last year.
Columbus seems like a good bet to go forward but could go either way.
Arizona could go either direction but would think defense would remain a priority for them over another smaller skilled forward.
Ottawa would be dumb to do anything but defense.
Montreal will be taking a forward.

In this analysis, then, Demidov or Catton could definitely fall to MTL. the one thing I disagree with is that SJ would definitely go defense. At 2OA, I still think there's a good chance Grier goes for Lindstrom. It depends on their upside evaluation of Dickinson and their downside evaluation of Lev and Yak. I don't think the sharks will take the Silayev risk and contract in the top 4 picks.

 

[57special]

The guy does have a point - I think it is very likely that Demidov is the 3rd forward off the board.

Celebrini is going at 1. The next forward going is likely going to be Lindstrom - why? He's a center, that's value for teams. His production was very good pre injury. He's also a big, athletic and competitive prospect. That is going to land higher than a Russian winger playing in the MHL for NHL teams and scouts.

The question is when does Lindstrom go and which defenseman go ahead of Lindstrom and Demidov.

I think you can pretty much guarantee that Dickinson and Levshunov are going in the top 4 picks. Silayev was 2 on Bob's poll, so I think its safe to say that as long as that holds, he is the 3rd defenseman off the board when those two go (teams will go for the shorter contract and NA born players here).

Then Pronman is pretty convinced 4 defenseman are going in the top 6 and that 4th defenseman is Yakemchuk. Then you have the wildcards in Parekh and Buium who Pronman mentioned as the 6 defenseman who will go in the top 10.

The other thing that I would look at is - who will be picking in the top 10.

Chicago could use anything but there's more holes in their defense prospects than forward prospects in their pool. 50/50 they go F or D.
San Jose hasn't taken a defenseman in the first round in what seems like forever, if they don't win the Celebrini lottery, they are definitely taking a defenseman.
Anaheim has been rebuilding since light bulbs were invented, they are 50/50 in any direction since their pool is full everywhere but I do think they'd slant defense after moving Drysdale for Gauthier and drafting Carlsson last year.
Columbus seems like a good bet to go forward but could go either way.
Arizona could go either direction but would think defense would remain a priority for them over another smaller skilled forward.
Ottawa would be dumb to do anything but defense.
Montreal will be taking a forward.

BMaCK had Eiserman going before Demidov, also. At this point, i don't know whether Eiserman is a flawed player, or the most underrated player in this draft.

 

[WarriorofTime]

BMaCK had Eiserman going before Demidov, also. At this point, i don't know whether Eiserman is a flawed player, or the most underrated player in this draft.

He's both honestly

 

[cheechoo]

Universally understood? Not even close to that. I'd say he's not understood by most scouts to be the second best player. There's more of a variety of favorites at #2.

It was bad verbiage by me. My fault. There is only one real consensus in this draft and that's who's the first overall pick. After that it's very much up for debate. I think there's a better chance that someone goes for a safer pick and that pushes the high skill forwards down the board a tad (Catton / Demidov).

I don't think the Michkov comparisons are relevant to pull inference from. He fell due to different reasons entirely than Demidov can or may.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

It was bad verbiage by me. My fault. There is only one real consensus in this draft and that's who's the first overall pick. After that it's very much up for debate. I think there's a better chance that someone goes for a safer pick and that pushes the high skill forwards down the board a tad (Catton / Demidov).

I don't think the Michkov comparisons are relevant to pull inference from. He fell due to different reasons entirely than Demidov can or may.

That’s all speculation. At the end of the day, Michkov is a small winger who isn’t an amazing skater. He’s also Russian. He fell for all the reasons small Russian wingers always fall.

 

[cheechoo]

That’s all speculation. At the end of the day, Michkov is a small winger who isn’t an amazing skater. He’s also Russian. He fell for all the reasons small Russian wingers always fall.

That's quite literally is not why Michkov fell.

There aren't any modern parallels to Michkov's draft process.

Your initial premise (and profile) is centered around wishful thinking.

 

[majormajor]

It was bad verbiage by me. My fault. There is only one real consensus in this draft and that's who's the first overall pick. After that it's very much up for debate. I think there's a better chance that someone goes for a safer pick and that pushes the high skill forwards down the board a tad (Catton / Demidov).

I don't think the Michkov comparisons are relevant to pull inference from. He fell due to different reasons entirely than Demidov can or may.

That’s all speculation. At the end of the day, Michkov is a small winger who isn’t an amazing skater. He’s also Russian. He fell for all the reasons small Russian wingers always fall.

Michkov has the biggest plusses but also more concerns for scouts

very small
a pure winger
an unorthodox skater
inconsistent (no show in MHL playoffs)
Russian
under contract for three more years
told some clubs not to pick him

Individually these reasons would be why any player would slip two or three spots, together it really wasn't surprising that he fell to #7. I don't think the Russian part or even the contract suffices to explain why he fell, it was really everything.

Demidov is Russian, and hasn't had a chance to prove anything at the KHL level yet. But other than that he's not as risky as Michkov. I think he'd probably have gone ahead of Michkov, even head to head in the same draft.

 

[Kshahdoo]

A superb assist from Demidov, his 3rd point in the playoffs.

 

[Caser]

A superb assist from Demidov, his 3rd point in the playoffs.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Scored 1+2 in the 5th game of the playoffs vs Dinamo SPb (they played till 3 wins in 1/8), and SKA-1946 won the series. He's 2+6 after 5 games.

 

[Caser]

 

[Kshahdoo]

Another 1+2 game. and now he leads the playoffs in scoring with 3+9 after 7 games. There is another player with 12 points (1+11 after 6 games), and it's another 2024 draft kid Yegor Surin from Loko.

 

[Musampa]

I still believe he’s a 2nd best player in this draft

 

[Caser]

3G+1A from today's game:

 

[Kshahdoo]

Yeah, the 3rd goal was in OT, SKA-1946 won the game 5-4 and series 3-0. He now leads the playoffs in scoring with 6+10 after 8 games.

 

[Castle8130]

This kid should be a lock for 2nd oa. He is destroying the MHL

 

[hockey maniac]

I still believe he’s a 2nd best player in this draft

I still believe he is the best. I'm not kidding. I haven't see so talented russian forwards physically and technically since Gino Malkin.

 

[thebestnic]

Definitely the player I want for the Habs(well after Celibrini). We badly need someone who has a complete game in our top 6

 

[Boy Hedican]

Not a bad consolidation prize when the Sharks get screwed and CHI gets 1OA back to back.