F Igor Chernyshov - MHK Dynamo Moscow, MHL (2024, 33rd, SJS)

[coooldude]

Why so defensive? I simply posted a list of first round picks as a starting point. It clearly shows the CHL is bust central. Now perhaps you can dive into why that is? Or maybe that paper already properly describes why.

Reposting from the last post -- your list does not "clearly" show the CHL is bust central because:

You posted a list of 27 players split into CHL and non CHL. So what? Here are some reasons why one list might be better than another

• Small sample size -- 27 players is hardly enough to draw definitive conclusions
• Selection bias / "if they're good they'll make it" - maybe the good players don't need the CHL, so the players going to the CHL weren't likely to be as successful to begin with. Maybe it wasn't a decision to go to the CHL but an outcome that happened because they didn't make the AHL/NHL team. Therefore going to the CHL is not influencing any outcome
• Error/hiding the ball - some of your players who didn't go to the CHL DID go to the AHL (e.g. Kostin). So maybe it does, maybe it doesn't help to come to NA.

Maybe leaving home and coming to NA is bad for development -- no, your 27 player list, nor the IIHF advocacy paper, answer that question.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Possibly. Let's dive into all these arguments.


Ah, I'm naive for saying I don't agree with you! Of course. Or wait, is it that I'm ignoring "all logic"? and I'm "logically insane?" Perhaps we should just check the tape and dive into your word salad.


1. "This guy wasn't viewed as a first rounder." EP = 19OA ("EP is a joke"). Wheeler mocks him to 24 and ranks him 23 ("Wheeler is a joke"), Pronman mocks/ranks him 27/18 ("Pronman is a joke"), Chris Peters ranks him 19 and mocks him out of the first round, Bob McKenzie ranks him 21 on his final ranking. Caser made a joke earlier in the thread about his sunburn hurting his first round chances.

So who, exactly, didn't view him as a first rounder? Where's the irrefutable logic in your first claim about the player?

2. "Statistically the numbers are very, very bad." Can you prove this central claim? You have the opinion that "there is a trend and it's there for a reason" but can you actually statistically, convincingly show that russians picked in the late 1st-3rd rounds who go to NA "too early" (however you can cleanly define this) make NHL careers at lower rates than, say, EU or NA skaters? Can you show games played, points scored, is worse, or maybe you're just seeing results that fit your narrative? Maybe the n is too low to actually get into statistics rather than just anecdotal examples of some russians that stayed in the KHL longer and others that didn't, which isn't actually statistical evidence but is instead tea leaf reading? I have seen no statistics. I have seen a lot of anecdotes and incomplete lists.

3. Now onto your philosophical musings. Eloquent as always! But lacking in meaning and coherency as about half your posts do (it's baffling, because the other half seem to make a lot of sense often).

You basically say that Russian hockey is a skill game, "tiki taka", "east to west." And that this kind of style doesn't fit with NA hockey, which is more direct. OK. Then you say that the only players who can succeed are skill players, and that the only way their skill can shine through is if they hone it in a different league first and then come over. If you boil this down, you're basically saying, "only the most skilled Russians can play a NA game." Charitably, you would say, "Chernyshov has the chance to be a most skilled Russian, but only if you keep him in Russia so he can really hone that skill."

Great, then in the next paragraph about Patrick Kane and Mitch Marner learning a more rounded playstyle, you essentially say that in your formative years, if you don't learn how to play in a different playstyle, it'll be really hard to learn that new playstyle. So you're basically contradicting your whole point. "As you get older, it becomes more difficult to learn habits. They become more engrained." In which case, you're essentially saying, "only the most skilled Russians can play in the NHL, and everyone else will fail, so the only and best way to develop as a Russian is to stay in Russia and try to become a player who will be so skilled that this skill will overcome their inability to mesh into a North American play style." This is the best most charitable interpretation I can find here, and it seems incredibly cynical, counterintuitive to how human and hockey growth happens, and rooted in little data.

For example -- Chernyshov is not a typical "skill Russian winger" - in fact, he's got a big body, was praised for being fairly direct as a player. Here's a pretty funny thing for you from the EP guide -- his NHL comp was - gasp! - Pavel Buchnevich - you will surely use this anecdote to argue he should stay in the KHL for 3 years. But it doesn't actually support your "skills development versus NA playstyle development" concept. Anyway, EP summarizes Chernyshov as "A hardworking power forward who excels at creating chances off the rush and dominates when play becomes physical." Sounds pretty counter to your "skill only" claim, and sounds like a NA style profile. To your point about learning as early as possible, wouldn't it be better to get over to the systems and playstyles that are more like what you want to go professional in - the NHL - and get to learning the language and the systems? Seems like you already made this argument for Igor!

Oh, and as for me "educating myself as to the very clear and logical discussion being had," here's Kshahdoo responding to my initial dismissiveness by saying it's not about development at all, but actually about how much money he's going to make.

Chernyshov did not go in the first round. That's what I meant. I thought that was pretty clear. If not, I am clearing that up. This applies to @Mattb124 too.

Can I prove the claim that the statistics are very bad? Okay, well, how many years has this been a central topic of Russian forwards coming to NA as juniors or too soon after being pros? Like 20 years? You figure about 5 players of note per year (there was a peak where it was more, and now it's probably a few less on average for various reasons) over that span. So you're dealing with 100 guys that theoretically were guys that would've at least gotten a thread in this section. How many have turned into impact NHL'ers? Svechnikov. I guess Radulov many moons ago. Dadonov started in NA, but had to go back to Russia. Some like to point to Kucherov (came over for his U19 and played all of 50 games in NA before the NHL.) Technically, Barbashev and Namestnikov are players you could say might've had 1 or 2 seasons as impact players in their prime.

So in sum, you have less than 5 players. At least 1, but probably not all the way up to 5. No, those odds aren't good. Obviously the odds aren't good for any player to become that, but a disproportionate amount of the impact Russian forwards over the years have developed essentially exclusively in Russia.

And you completely conflated my argument. Most of the good Russian players are skill forwards. I think that's well acknowledged. Their hockey is a little different from what you find in Sweden or Finland, who produce plenty of very good defensive forwards that are still two way guys because they also have offense. Most of the Russian guys play a very specific and rigid brand of hockey. The type of style of hockey where you know it when you see it. There are still players of other nationalities who you could say play this style of hockey (the Marner and Kane examples I used). They also obviously didn't develop in Russia, but there's a reason the majority of the good Russians forwards play this style and the majority of the good players of other nationalities are not of this style. The way they play hockey is different. It's harder to adjust off of. If you grow up in a culture where you are different (Marner or Kane), you either adapt or don't succeed. The equivalents in Russia didn't have to adapt at 14 or 15 years old because the general style was right up their ally.

I think it's well established that there's some breakdown in these years from age 16-20, and I think part of it is also the way that these teenage hockey players (that are also adapting to a whole new culture in other ways) don't have the skills (hockey and otherwise) to make the adjustment needed to succeed. As people get older (and the stats show that most of the Russian forwards that've succeeded come over around 21-24), they tend to learn to mature, adjust and adapt and work around their strengths and weaknesses. If you look at players like Panarin or Kaprizov or whoever, are these guys completely different hockey players from what they were in the KHL? Or have they just learned how to manage what about their game suits the different NA style and what doesn't? Again, it doesn't mean the habits and the tendencies are gone. You just learn how to work with what they are. A teenager is probably going to be more rigid in their ways.

If that doesn't make sense, not sure I'm helping you make sense of this. I think this is a difficult topic to pinpoint why the situation is what it is, but there's a reason why these players year over year don't succeed. I don't think it's some completely meaningless topic.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Going back through the last dozen drafts, it doesn't really seem like there's a particularly strong argument for KHL developed vs NA developed players at the moment. I think the last top 6 F/top 4 D players to be drafted from Russia and developed there for multiple D+ years are Kaprizov and Gavrikov in 2015 and Nichushkin and Buchnevich in 2013. There's a few more recent ones that have some top 6/top 4 potential like Romanov, Voronkov, and Chinakhov but they're more likely to settle in as middle 6 guys.

There's a bunch of potential top 6/top 4 guys from the last couple drafts like Simashev, Yurov, and But who are still in the KHL. And there's Michkov and Demidov who are kinda arguable since they'll probably be in the NHL as teens.

This is true, but the missing thing within this argument is that these forwards of note developed anywhere are missing from anywhere other than Svechnikov, who has been used as the outlier of outliers for the NA path since before he even was drafted.

So what I think this amounts to is the overall failure of Russian forwards in this time window has left us with essentially no data set. Hopefully the next window of years more success to give better data.

 

[bcspragu]

Chernyshov can learn the NA game anytime.
But he has only a small window of opportunity to develop his skill-set, which is much harder to do when you have every change in the book thrown at you at once.

It's no different than a 19 year old American dropped in the middle of, say, Chelyabinsk. That kids gonna have a lot of issues to contend with too...., even if he has a good support system.

Can he develop properly in NA? Sure. But its such an unnecessary risk to take.

People seem to forget his agent is about an hour drive from Saginaw and seems to funnel prospects to the team to be close. Represents parekh as well. I think they know what’s best for him

 

[coooldude]

Chernyshov did not go in the first round. That's what I meant. I thought that was pretty clear. If not, I am clearing that up. This applies to @Mattb124 too.

Can I prove the claim that the statistics are very bad? Okay, well, how many years has this been a central topic of Russian forwards coming to NA as juniors or too soon after being pros? Like 20 years? You figure about 5 players of note per year (there was a peak where it was more, and now it's probably a few less on average for various reasons) over that span. So you're dealing with 100 guys that theoretically were guys that would've at least gotten a thread in this section. How many have turned into impact NHL'ers? Svechnikov. I guess Radulov many moons ago. Dadonov started in NA, but had to go back to Russia. Some like to point to Kucherov (came over for his U19 and played all of 50 games in NA before the NHL.) Technically, Barbashev and Namestnikov are players you could say might've had 1 or 2 seasons as impact players in their prime.

So in sum, you have less than 5 players. At least 1, but probably not all the way up to 5. No, those odds aren't good. Obviously the odds aren't good for any player to become that, but a disproportionate amount of the impact Russian forwards over the years have developed essentially exclusively in Russia.

And you completely conflated my argument. Most of the good Russian players are skill forwards. I think that's well acknowledged. Their hockey is a little different from what you find in Sweden or Finland, who produce plenty of very good defensive forwards that are still two way guys because they also have offense. Most of the Russian guys play a very specific and rigid brand of hockey. The type of style of hockey where you know it when you see it. There are still players of other nationalities who you could say play this style of hockey (the Marner and Kane examples I used). They also obviously didn't develop in Russia, but there's a reason the majority of the good Russians forwards play this style and the majority of the good players of other nationalities are not of this style. The way they play hockey is different. It's harder to adjust off of. If you grow up in a culture where you are different (Marner or Kane), you either adapt or don't succeed. The equivalents in Russia didn't have to adapt at 14 or 15 years old because the general style was right up their ally.

I think it's well established that there's some breakdown in these years from age 16-20, and I think part of it is also the way that these teenage hockey players (that are also adapting to a whole new culture in other ways) don't have the skills (hockey and otherwise) to make the adjustment needed to succeed. As people get older (and the stats show that most of the Russian forwards that've succeeded come over around 21-24), they tend to learn to mature, adjust and adapt and work around their strengths and weaknesses. If you look at players like Panarin or Kaprizov or whoever, are these guys completely different hockey players from what they were in the KHL? Or have they just learned how to manage what about their game suits the different NA style and what doesn't? Again, it doesn't mean the habits and the tendencies are gone. You just learn how to work with what they are. A teenager is probably going to be more rigid in their ways.

If that doesn't make sense, not sure I'm helping you make sense of this. I think this is a difficult topic to pinpoint why the situation is what it is, but there's a reason why these players year over year don't succeed. I don't think it's some completely meaningless topic.

Thanks for the serious reply -- it was a lot more thoughtful than many of the posts in between.

What you've done is still relying on anecdote - I'm proposing (and against my better judgment, have already started) pulling together an analysis starting with
1. Pull every Russian player drafted in the top 100 since 1991, by draft position, and which team/league they were drafted from (I did this today from NHL.com, from my count there are 302)
2. Pull their career NHL games and points (in process -- NHL API's are a mess everywhere so I started doing this as a brute force procrastination via statmuse)
3. Lookup how many games they played in non-NHL leagues between their draft and their NHL debut - and which specific leagues. In their first NHL year where they also split games between other leagues, just count all those games as "before NHL" whether or not they were up and down ... ignoring international tournaments. (again - brute force, just started, using EP)
4. Pull expected games played based on their draft position

That gets you a dataset which you can use to at least look at some numbers like:
1. How have Russians performed overall compared to their expected draft position?
2. Is there any meaningful difference in games played vs. expected (and in meaningful #'s, not just one or two stories) between a Russian drafted from CHL/North America, or drafted from Russia? AKA Russians who came to NA early?
3. How about drafted from Russia and stayed in Russia vs. drafted from Russia and came immediately to NA?

I think that while there's a pattern of players not succeeding off the top of our heads, we haven't proved the most basic hypothesis, which is that a lot of players just don't succeed, no matter which choices they make in their development. The "null hypothesis" is that it doesn't really matter which league you choose - that's the simplest explanation. A real statistical analysis would disprove that by showing that "actually, it's better/worse to stay in Russia, and here's some significant, not just noisy math that proves it." We don't have that math. It would be awesome to have it and then we could at least have something to back up this discussion and the patterns that you and others are seeing "intuitively".

 

[Hanji]

Reposting from the last post -- your list does not "clearly" show the CHL is bust central because:

The list undoubtedly shows first round Russians are more likely to fail in the CHL. The numbers don't lie, they show an overall trend over fifteen years. The question remains why? Up to this point you haven't actually answered any questions, just muddied the water. In the absense of contradictory study/evidence, Chernyshov is statistically choosing to take an uphill route to the NHL.

 

[Juxtaposer]

The list undoubtedly shows first round Russians are more likely to fail in the CHL. The numbers don't lie, they show an overall trend over fifteen years. The question remains why? Up to this point you haven't actually answered any questions, just muddied the water. In the absense of contradictory study/evidence, Chernyshov is statistically choosing to take an uphill route to the NHL.

I’m very curious if there’s any statistics specific to players jumping from the KHL to the CHL. Because I don’t think just saying “Russians in the CHL fail” if there’s no way to filter for guys that would have failed no matter where they played.

 

[Mattb124]

Chernyshov did not go in the first round. That's what I meant. I thought that was pretty clear. If not, I am clearing that up. This applies to @Mattb124 too.

English is a difficult language to master for foreign speakers, but Chernyshov not being viewed as a first rounder (which is the comment you made and is almost universally untrue) and him not being drafted in the first round (which is factually correct, albeit by literally a single draft spot) are very different - almost contradictory - statements. It is a bad assumption that it was clear to others when you made one statement but meant essentially the opposite.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

English is a difficult language to master for foreign speakers, but Chernyshov not being viewed as a first rounder (which is the comment you made and is almost universally untrue) and him not being drafted in the first round (which is factually correct, albeit by literally a single draft spot) are very different - almost contradictory - statements. It is a bad assumption that it was clear to others when you made one statement but meant essentially the opposite.

Look, we don't need to get deep into semantics, but I don't think there's anything wrong with referring to the actual teams that draft players as how a player was viewed.

If you took it a different way, okay well I'm telling you what I meant. Misunderstanding over. No need for us to go deep on this.

 

[Finster8]

Saginaw had developed Mintyukov in the CHL and he is playing solid D in the NHL. He put up some good offensive numbers for the Ducks this season at 20 years old. He played 2 years in the OHL and it didn’t kill his development. Just thought it being Saginaw and a young Russian D would be a decent comparable.

 

[bcspragu]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1819250936512237595

 

[Gecklund]

One thing massively missing in this argument is the steep decline in the quality of the KHL due to political factors.

 

[coooldude]

I’m very curious if there’s any statistics specific to players jumping from the KHL to the CHL. Because I don’t think just saying “Russians in the CHL fail” if there’s no way to filter for guys that would have failed no matter where they played.

Yes, exactly, this is what all my posts have been about. The CHL list could be pure selection bias.

 

[Kshahdoo]

One thing massively missing in this argument is the steep decline in the quality of the KHL due to political factors.

Nah, there is no any "steep decline" because there is more of AHLers and former NHLers instead of Swedes, Finns and Chechs. And there is more of younger Russian players.

 

[Hanji]

I’m very curious if there’s any statistics specific to players jumping from the KHL to the CHL. Because I don’t think just saying “Russians in the CHL fail” if there’s no way to filter for guys that would have failed no matter where they played.

That’s why I listed first round talents.
The later a player is drafted the higher chance of failure regardless of where a player develops.
Is all this an exact science? Hell no.
But the trend is obvious

 

[Kshahdoo]

I'm pretty sure Atanasov will have better chances to make the NHL, and he's smaller than Chernyshov and undrafted. But's he's already a KHL star which is more important for NHL clubs than size and draft position...

 

[Zine]

Besides, I like Gushchin a lot and definitely think that if he were 6’0” he would easily be an NHLer. He’s really good, it’s just going to be hard for him to find a role at his size. It’s only his lack of physical tools holding him back, which is nothing to do with his development path.


Kuzmenko literally played in Russia exclusively until he was 25????

And using E. Svechnikov as an example when injuries played a part and his younger brother also played in NA pre-draft and turned out well doesn’t exactly support your point.

Gushchin reminds me of another midget - Vitali Abramov. Abramov was also way ahead of his (Russian) peers in juniors but was a little bit small for the NHL.

Abramov and Sokolov were the dynamic duo for years in their age group. Both went to the CHL and returned shells of their former selves. At least Abramov is still a serviceable KHL player.

 

[molotce]

Gushchin reminds me of another midget - Vitali Abramov. Abramov was also way ahead of his (Russian) peers in juniors but was a little bit small for the NHL.

Abramov and Sokolov were the dynamic duo for years in their age group. Both went to the CHL and returned shells of their former selves. At least Abramov is still a serviceable KHL player.

I remember watching abramov live a lot, super skilled, super ‘junior’ star but top6 or bust. He was lacking, traded him when he won scoring title in the Q cause he had such a junior playstyle, knew hed probably never be an NHL’er

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Signed his Standard Player Agreement with Saginaw!

 

[bcspragu]

Signed his Standard Player Agreement with Saginaw!

I’ve been telling people this deal was cooked from the start. Igor’s agent works closely with Saginaw and has a lot of players on that roster. As soon as it was announced pre draft he was working his way out of Russia and Saginaw picked him it was a done deal.

Now Saginaw turns to trying to get Lucas Pettersson signed, which would require the Ducks to sign him first. Would be a hell of an import duo

 

[Zine]

I’ve been telling people this deal was cooked from the start. Igor’s agent works closely with Saginaw and has a lot of players on that roster. As soon as it was announced pre draft he was working his way out of Russia and Saginaw picked him it was a done deal.

Now Saginaw turns to trying to get Lucas Pettersson signed, which would require the Ducks to sign him first. Would be a hell of an import duo

On the surface this move made no sense, but now.....

Chernyshov's father is reportedly steering the ship on his son's behalf, and his agent appears to have a vested interest in Saginaw's success.
I seriously wonder how much ($$$) the Chernyshovs are receiving from Gold Star/Saginaw?
He'll be the first player in history to give up a KHL roster spot and money to travel half way across the globe just to play juniors.

Agents, money, outside influence.....

 

[Hockeyville USA]

On the surface this move made no sense, but now.....

Chernyshov's father is reportedly steering the ship on his son's behalf, and his agent appears to have a vested interest in Saginaw's success.
I seriously wonder how much ($$$) the Chernyshovs are receiving from Gold Star/Saginaw?
He'll be the first player in history to give up a KHL roster spot and money to travel half way across the globe just to play juniors.

Agents, money, outside influence.....

Probably getting some (extra) money to play junior here, but also wanting to adjust to North American ice and life before heading to San Jose.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Probably getting some (extra) money to play junior here, but also wanting to adjust to North American ice and life before heading to San Jose.

He doesn't need to go to NA to adjust to NA rinks, his team and most of other KHL ones play on NA size ice.

 

[Zine]

Probably getting some (extra) money to play junior here, but also wanting to adjust to North American ice and life before heading to San Jose.

Chernyshov can make that adjustment anytime. He'll likely spend next year (2025-26) in the AHL, then on to the NHL if all goes well.
So why the rush? So what's so significant about this upcoming year?

Me thinks Saginaw is making a full press to repeat as CHL champions, and Chernyshov's agent has a vested interest in this.

 

[bcspragu]

On the surface this move made no sense, but now.....

Chernyshov's father is reportedly steering the ship on his son's behalf, and his agent appears to have a vested interest in Saginaw's success.
I seriously wonder how much ($$$) the Chernyshovs are receiving from Gold Star/Saginaw?
He'll be the first player in history to give up a KHL roster spot and money to travel half way across the globe just to play juniors.

Agents, money, outside influence.....

Do you normally follow the CHL? Almost every player that reports to a team has some sort of agent influence that steers them one way. The import draft is almost exclusively a connections draft and the regular priority selection is becoming that way as well