99% of the time the best prospects stay in Finland since they are promised Liiga minutes, so the sample we have of prospects playing elsewhere on DY is primarily made out of mid-late round level talents. It's only natural you wont have a great success rate with that kind of talent. Juuso Välimäki is the only good prospect who left early that comes to my mind. Didn't exactly turn into a star, but he got absolutely fcked by injuries and is still at least an NHLer. Good Dman by Finnish standards I'd say.
Pretty simple why I'm pushing for players to make the jump. The level of play in u20 Liiga is low compared to other jr. leagues, and pushing a 16 year old to play against men twice his size is often completely unfair and only increases the risk of injury. Brad Lambert is the example I'll always use with this. Too good for u20 at 16 years old, but not mature enough for Liiga. Ended up wasting 2 years in Finland when he could have been playing a major role in WHL like he did in 22-23.
Are they all simply promised minutes or are most of them fully deserving of them? I believe the majority of the
best prospects deserve those minutes and they very much benefit from pro minutes compared to going to junior hockey in a different country. Other than Lambert I guess, I can't remember a big Finnish prospect who wasn't ready to play pro in some role as a 16-17yo. There can be different opinions on that of course. I also personally wouldn't leave if I got real chances at the pro level and I showed that I can be effective at this level.
We have to also consider the lack of examples of the best talent leaving to play elsewhere, has to be a relatively big part for the best opting to stay in Finland.
I don't agree with you completely. Grass isn't always greener in other countries and I will almost always see pro minutes in the top European leagues as the better path for the best prospects. If a Finn would get offered top minutes in the SHL then that's an understandable move. But a good role in the Liiga would be better than junior hockey. The top talent will be good enough for the pro game and they'll benefit from the pro environment and added competition a lot. Lambert could've left if he or his dad/agent wanted him to no? They chose to stay and try the pro game and it didn't work for him in Finland.
Let's see how things turn out with Karjalahti and the other talent coming through in Finland, I'm guessing we might see a pro debut from him next season and we'll see how he looks in the U20 league with a bigger sample size too.