Confirmed with Link: (F) Dawson Mercer re-signs with NJD (3 years, $4M AAV)

[JimEIV]

View attachment 908403

After 4seasons, before his breakout season in his 5th year,

Jesper Bratt had 130 points in 231 games -26. About 70% of those points were 5v5. 93 5v5 points in 4 years

Jesper killed penalties his rookie year (85.2) and almost not at all for next the next 5 years until this season.
Jesper only played 1 playoff games during his ELC and had no points.


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Dawson in 3 years had 131 points in 246 games -29. About 82% of points were 5v5. 107 5v5 points in 3 years

Dawson didn't kill penalties much in his rookie season (25.2) but was a primary PKer for the next two years with over 100 minutes each year.

In Dawson's first playoffs he had 7 points in 12 games. That was a 3 way tie for 2nd on the team in playoff scoring .

Dawson has more playoff points today than Bratt does in his career.


Head and shoulders.

 

[MasterofGrond]

After 4seasons, before his breakout season in his 5th year,

Jesper Bratt had 130 points in 231 games -26. About 70% of those points were 5v5. 93 5v5 points in 4 years

Jesper killed penalties his rookie year (85.2) and almost not at all for next the next 5 years until this season.
Jesper only played 1 playoff games during his ELC and had no points.


--------

Dawson in 3 years had 131 points in 246 games -29. About 82% of points were 5v5. 107 5v5 points in 3 years

Dawson didn't kill penalties much in his rookie season (25.2) but was a primary PKer for the next two years with over 100 minutes each year.

In Dawson's first playoffs he had 7 points in 12 games. That was a 3 way tie for 2nd on the team in playoff scoring .

Dawson has more playoff points today than Bratt does in his career.


Head and shoulders.

Well, Bratt has played exactly one more playoff game in his career and one less point than Mercer so, you know, it isn’t exactly a meaningful difference lmao

 

[JimEIV]

Well, Bratt has played exactly one more playoff game in his career and one less point than Mercer so, you know, it isn’t exactly a meaningful difference lmao

Bratt was a 6 year pro, key team member in the 2023 playoffs. Dawson was a sophomore who was on the 3rd line often during those playoffs and outscored him.

Not meaningful? Bull poopy.

Now add that to the context of both of their individual ELC years... Mercer's first 3 years blows Bratt's away ..

Dawson was excellent during his ELC, why is this even controversial or debatable?

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

personally, i would like to see the Devils play well this year

 

[NJ DevLolz]

Jim is the only guy I know who’s pissed his team signed a player at a lower cost than expected. Be happy they got the third year and move on

 

[TrufleShufle]

Jim is the only guy I know who’s pissed his team signed a player at a lower cost than expected. Be happy they got the third year and move on

Being mad on a players behalf is def a new one.

 

[NJDevs26]

Being mad on a players behalf is def a new one.

Especially when players routinely get 'underpaid' at the start of their career, then overpaid once UFA hits and thus goes the cycle of life.

 

[JimEIV]

Being mad on a players behalf is def a new one.

I've explained my reasoning... I am afraid this contract makes it more likely to see Mercer move on...

Not because he's mad, because the money won't be there... he got this contract to make sure everyone else is going to get their big pay day.

 

[MVP Zacha]

Bratt was a 6 year pro, key team member in the 2023 playoffs. Dawson was a sophomore who was on the 3rd line often during those playoffs and outscored him.

Not meaningful? Bull poopy.

Now add that to the context of both of their individual ELC years... Mercer's first 3 years blows Bratt's away ..

Dawson was excellent during his ELC, why is this even controversial or debatable?

And when a line is not producing, they take Mercer off it and put Bratt on it.
Look, I like Mercer as much as anyone else but being this pissed off that Mercer and the Devils agreed to what everyone except you thinks is very good for both sides is... well, a disgrace.

 

[JimEIV]

And when a line is not producing, they take Mercer off it and put Bratt on it.
Look, I like Mercer as much as anyone else but being this pissed off that Mercer and the Devils agreed to what everyone except you thinks is very good for both sides is... well, a disgrace.

Yeah 5/6 years into his pro career Bratt was capable of getting any line going...

when Bratt was at the same stage as Dawson he was getting scratched and his work ethic was challenged by the coach in public.

 

[dgibb10]

You are correct and the fact it was in year 2 of a two year deal is really the entire point...

my point is simply that 3rd year Dawson took, is highway robbery. He limited his earning potential, gave the team tremendous flexibility to negotiate future contracts and really didn't get compensated appropriately for it. I believe he should've only taken two years. I don't really see any reason at all to do a 3rd year other than helping out the team...and if you are helping out the team...that 3rd should be a helluva lot more than 4.2...more like 5/5.5

But the other poster is trying to compare apples to oranges...by comparing Bratt's 2nd and 3rd contracts to Dawson's 2nd because of the extra year.

Comparing the 3rd contract to Dawson's 2nd doesn't make sense at all.

Not only are the values from 2020 to 2025 vastly different, the scenario of negotiating that 3rd deal with arbitration rights is a completely different scenario all together.

So if Dawson were to have 70 points in year two of his deal... he'll be making 4.2 in his 3rd year in 2027 dollars as opposed to 5.45 million that Bratt made in 2022 dollars when that contract was signed. That's not just a 1.2M dollar difference in 2022 vs 2027 dollars...that probably more like a 2+ million dollar difference.

So that third year is my gripe...and I'm afraid that this deal might put Dawson in a more likely position to never get a fair deal in NJ. When really we could have locked him up so easily for a team friendly number this off season...all we had to do is not sign Tatar.

You think Mercer should have taken a 2 year deal to maximize his earnings in year 3 of that deal.

I gave you a literal prime example of an ELC taking a 2 year deal, becoming a PPG player. He still didn't cash in to anywhere near the 8 mill you think mercer is giving up in the unlikely case he becomes a 70+ point player.

Also Mercer has virtually no chance of becoming as good as bratt became in 21-22

 

[AfroThunder396]

Again, Mercer had the 2nd most 5v5 ice time among forwards at Thanksgiving (18 games) but only had 2 5v5 points in 242:18 5v5 minutes.

For comparison, Alex Holtz had 7 5v5 points in 186:43 5v5 minutes. Mercer only had 2 more ES points than Holtz did this season despite the later having about five and a half minutes less ice time per game.

After Feb 15th, he had 6 5v5 points in 402:34 minutes (30 games). So not only did he start the season terribly, he ended the season terribly.

And if we look at his good portion of the season where he was actually producing (18 5v5 points in 463:28 5v5 mins/34 games), here were his most common 5v5 line mates:

Meier: 203:58
McLeod: 127:10
Haula: 123:45
Toffoli: 99:00
Holtz: 88:43
Hischier: 75:34
Hughes: 66:34

So when he was producing, he wasn't at the top of the lineup - it was with the middle/lower end of the lineup. That means the whole "buried on the 3rd and 4th line" excuse doesn't hold up because he played his best hockey in that role.

To pretend he didn't have opportunities is factually, objectively, empirically false. If the argument is that Mercer can only produce with certain players and in certain roles, that's essentially admitting that he's not a long term +7M AAV player.

 

[dgibb10]

Again, Mercer had the 2nd most 5v5 ice time among forwards at Thanksgiving (18 games) but only had 2 5v5 points in 242:18 5v5 minutes.

For comparison, Alex Holtz had 7 5v5 points in 186:43 5v5 minutes. Mercer only had 2 more ES points than Holtz did this season despite the later having about five and a half minutes less ice time per game.

After Feb 15th, he had 6 5v5 points in 402:34 minutes (30 games). So not only did he start the season terribly, he ended the season terribly.

And if we look at his good portion of the season where he was actually producing (18 5v5 points in 463:28 5v5 mins/34 games), here were his most common 5v5 line mates:

Meier: 203:58
McLeod: 127:10
Haula: 123:45
Toffoli: 99:00
Holtz: 88:43
Hischier: 75:34
Hughes: 66:34

So when he was producing, he wasn't at the top of the lineup - it was with the middle/lower end of the lineup. That means the whole "buried on the 3rd and 4th line" excuse doesn't hold up because he played his best hockey in that role.

To pretend he didn't have opportunities is factually, objectively, empirically false. If the argument is that Mercer can only produce with certain players and in certain roles, that's essentially admitting that he's not a long term +7M AAV player.

Feeling bad for mercer on the basis that he is somehow a guarantee to be a near PPG player in 2 years and deserve 8 mill lmao.


Not even Mercer thinks he'll hit the numbers Jim does.

 

[Hisch13r]

I seem to remember Jack and Nico getting killed by a certain someone for a lack of production even though they were positively impacting the game in other ways. A different guy though can have a really shitty production year (by far worse than all of Nico’s years and worse than Jack’s sophomore year) while also not driving offense and being a negative defensively and still be this stud who can do no wrong.

 

[JimEIV]

I seem to remember Jack and Nico getting killed by a certain someone for a lack of production even though they were positively impacting the game in other ways. A different guy though can have a really shitty production year (by far worse than all of Nico’s years and worse than Jack’s sophomore year) while also not driving offense and being a negative defensively and still be this stud who can do no wrong.

Those guys never stayed healthy during their ELC and hardly produced points for being constant leaders in ice time...the team was hot garbage the entire time and we got almost nothing out of Jack"s ELC and only Nico's rookie year thanks to Taylor Hall.... positively impacting the team? In made up matrices for sure in actually getting results not at all.

I don't think Jack even had 90 NHL points when his long term deal was announced.

Edit:
So I looked it up. His extension was announced on November 30th 2021.

Jack played 120 games and had 55 points on November 30th 2021...64 million dollars for .458 PPG.

 

[Goptor]

The contract wasn't signed until 2 days after training camp already started. Of course one of the sides didn't get what they were hoping for.
That side was almost certainly Mercer since the Devils had all the leverage.

He was probably trying to get that 2 year contract you think he should be going for.

 

[Forge]

I seem to remember Jack and Nico getting killed by a certain someone for a lack of production even though they were positively impacting the game in other ways. A different guy though can have a really shitty production year (by far worse than all of Nico’s years and worse than Jack’s sophomore year) while also not driving offense and being a negative defensively and still be this stud who can do no wrong.

Yes, but have you considered those two were a disgrace?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Those guys never stayed healthy during their ELC and hardly produced points for being constant leaders in ice time...the team was hot garbage the entire time and we got almost nothing out of Jack"s ELC and only Nico's rookie year thanks to Taylor Hall.... positively impacting the team? In made up matrices for sure in actually getting results not at all.

I don't think Jack even had 90 NHL points when his long term deal was announced.

Edit:
So I looked it up. His extension was announced on November 30th 2021.

Jack played 120 games and had 55 points on November 30th 2021...64 million dollars.

Nico Hischier played ~90% of the games on his ELC. He had 0.65 ppg on his ELC, while basically playing 1C.

Dawson Mercer played 100% of the games on his ELC. He had 0.53 ppg on his ELC, while showing he can't be trusted to play C consistently.

what are we doing here?

 

[JimEIV]

Yes, but have you considered those two were a disgrace?

Let's keep it accurate...just Jack's first two years were the "disgrace"... He didn't belong in the league and he got a 64 million dollar contract on those two years...

But you pay for what will be, not the past....and that's another reason Mercer's deal is so disgusting.

Edit BTW, I praised Nico's rookie year for all the reasons I'm praising Dawson now. I remember posting that 52 points/82 games is a big deal from Nico....it went down hill for the following 4 years but yeah... I did love his rookie season.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Best to just close this thread down. I don’t know what this is

 

[dgibb10]

Let's keep it accurate...just Jack's first two years were the "disgrace"... He didn't belong in the league and he got a 64 million dollar contract on those two years...

But you pay for what will be, not the past....and that's another reason Mercer's deal is so disgusting.

Edit BTW, I praised Nico's rookie year for all the reasons I'm praising Dawson now. I remember posting that 52 points/82 games is a big deal from Nico....it went down hill for the following 4 years but yeah... I did love his rookie season.

The upside with Mercer really isn't there tho.

Mercer is not a high upside player.

Nico Hischier played ~90% of the games on his ELC. He had 0.65 ppg on his ELC, while basically playing 1C.

Dawson Mercer played 100% of the games on his ELC. He had 0.53 ppg on his ELC, while showing he can't be trusted to play C consistently.

what are we doing here?

Hischier was the 1C on a playoff team as an 18 year old rookie. I'd be shocked if Mercer ever becomes as good a player as Hischier was at 18

 

[JimEIV]

So he can't produce unless other players are feeding him? Not a great argument.

The team wasn't scoring 5v5 from the beginning of the year WITH everyone. The early PP was keeping their heads above water... somewhat.

 

[dgibb10]

The team wasn't scoring 5v5 from the beginning of the year WITH everyone. The early PP was keeping their heads above water... somewhat.

Weird take when Mercer had one of the lowest 5v5 scoring rates of any forward on our team

 

[NJDevs26]

If you guys want to fight the same fight vaya con dios, but name calling is not going to be tolerated.

I’d like to think enough people can eventually be happy about Mercer resigning rather than stay miserable they can’t convince everyone else to be happy too.

And we’re not debating other players in this thread or it will be locked.