F Cole Caufield - USNTDP Juniors, USHL (2019, 15th, MTL)

[ijuka]

This is tin foil hat territory.

How? If the best OHL team had some 4.5 goals per game and USNTDP had 5.7.

 

[Goldenhands]

Habs center line depth chart:

KK 6"2
Poehling 6"2
Danault 6"1
Olofsson 6"2
McCarron 6"5

 

[Thebesthockey]

Habs center line depth chart:

KK 6"2
Poehling 6"2
Danault 6"1
Olofsson 6"2
McCarron 6"5

kk yup
poehling jury is out

danault meh

olofson and mcarron lol

 

[Thebesthockey]

The USDP team won 6 games with 11 goals or more versus USHL teams this season (that is over a fifth of their games vs that league), obviously, you would expect a substantial fewer amount of point if Caufield were to have played in a harder league which much worse relative linemates.

on a stacked team
on a average league

 

[1909]

kk yup
poehling jury is out

danault meh

olofson and mcarron lol

Danault is not "meh"....

 

[William H Bonney]

The USDP team won 6 games with 11 goals or more versus USHL teams this season, obviously, you would expect a substantial fewer amount of point if Caufield were to have played in a harder league which much worse linemates.

How? If the best OHL team had some 4.5 goals per game and USNTDP had 5.7.

My point isn't to say that Caufield would have scored 72 goals in the OHL. My point is no one has any idea how his statistical season would have played out if he was in the OHL and claiming otherwise is tin foil hat territory. You can't extrapolate hypothetical statistics loaded with more assumptions than anything and posit that you've done something reputable.

Here's a short list of the assumptions:

• Adding an elite goal scorer couldn't improve the best OHL team's goals per game or conversely removing an elite goal scorer wouldn't decrease the NTPD U18's goals per game. You're not factoring in how Caufield contributed to one statistic or hypothetically would contribute to the other. You're assuming they'd be constant.
• That better NHL prospects mean better junior players and/or linemates.
• That Caufield would have "worse" linemates. There's plenty of junior players that aren't great pro prospects but are better junior players/linemates than touted 17 year olds because they're older, bigger, stronger, more mature, more experienced, etc. Could Caufield have worse linemates? Sure, but you can't prove that and you shouldn't assume that. It's also possible that Caufield playing with Morgan Frost would have yielded better results than you've extrapolated. Frost isn't close to Hughes as a pro prospect but when comparing a 19 year old Frost against a 17 year old Hughes and things are a lot closer.
• That Caufield played all his games with the same linemates. Hughes missed 14 games, Turcotte 27, and Zegras 4.
• That Caufield's stats all came from the USHL. He played 64 games last season, so 4 less than an OHL season, and only 30 of those were USHL games.
• Harder league automatically means less individual points.
• It's funny that while you think he'd score less points because it's a harder league and he'd have worse linemates, somehow that would only affect his goal scoring, while his assists would go up.

Those assumptions would be like me countering with my own version and claiming my "software" tells me that Caufield would have scored 55 goals in the OHL, a lot more than your projections. Why? Well, he scored 19% of the NTDP U18 goals and SSM scored 292 goals, so if Caufield was on the team, he'd have scored 19% of the goals, or 55 of them. And that's not even scoring as high of a % of a team's goals as happened last season in the OHL by an U18 player as Kaliyev scored 21% of his team's goals. If I was countering your projections with that, I would hope everyone would call it out as illogical just like your "software's" projections.

 

[ProspectsFanatic]

I mean it was just a guess based on the analytics I use, I don't feel like I need to defend anything, a guess stays a guess, but I personally believe it is reasonably accurate, otherwise, I wouldn't say it. I believe the OHL players and the USDP players and the adjustments with the quality of linemates are well calibrated and project where they should within a reasonable range (if not better, I believe in my methodology, you seem not to share the same view, fair enough). I won't get into a big argument and address from my viewpoint on everything you said, you are free to have a different opinion based on your reasoning, but you didn't change my mind on the projection it gave me.

What would be your guess?

 

[HuGo Sham]

kk yup
poehling jury is out

danault meh

olofson and mcarron lol

danault is a terrific 3 C. you're delusional

 

[David Suzuki]

MTL has been one of the very smallest teams for quite a while and hasn’t worked out too well for them

Been to the conference finals twice? Sure it's not a cup but it's not nothing.

 

[Goldenhands]

kk yup
poehling jury is out

danault meh

olofson and mcarron lol

Danault meh as a third line center? Ok...
Poehling will at least become a great third line center, thats his floor, at worst Domi stays down the middle to center that 2nd line...
McCarron showed a nice progression last year under Bouchard, he was playing great before his injury, clock is running but Im still a believer he can slot down the middle of our fourth line...
Olofsson has limited upside, but he is a strong skating center with solid 2-way game, I like him as a future bottom liner...

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

Habs center line depth chart:

KK 6"2
Poehling 6"2
Danault 6"1
Olofsson 6"2
McCarron 6"5

Kk is 6'3 now, he's gonna end at 6'4

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

danault is a terrific 3 C. you're delusional

Ignore him, he doesn't watch Hockey much

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

Pittsburg has never been a big team and they won the cup plenty of time

 

[Goldenhands]

Kk is 6'3 now, he's gonna end at 6'4

Not surprised he is now at 6"3 but where do you got that info? Thats great news if true, will probably end up with Barkov type of frame...

 

[AmericanDream]

danault is a terrific 3 C. you're delusional

he usually is...

 

[MichaelFarrell]

I mean it was just a guess based on the analytics I use, I don't feel like I need to defend anything, a guess stays a guess, but I personally believe it is reasonably accurate, otherwise, I wouldn't say it. I believe the OHL players and the USDP players and the adjustments with the quality of linemates are well calibrated and project where they should within a reasonable range (if not better, I believe in my methodology, you seem not to share the same view, fair enough). I won't get into a big argument and address from my viewpoint on everything you said, you are free to have a different opinion based on your reasoning, but you didn't change my mind on the projection it gave me.

What would be your guess?

I like the idea of having an actual algorithm to kinda get a baseline. Obviously if Caufield went to the Greyhounds and played with Hayton and/or Frost he would’ve probably put up better numbers than you are suggesting but it’s pretty interesting.

 

[Peeps]

Kotka Caufield
Domi Drouin
Danault Gallagher
Poehling Suzuki

All the posibilities with these 8 players in 2 3 years wow (can even add Tatar and Shaw)

 

[McNurse]

I’m happy you guys ended up with Caufield, I really wanted us to trade down to pick him up but it goes how it goes, hopefully he ends up great for you guys!

 

[ProspectsFanatic]

I like the idea of having an actual algorithm to kinda get a baseline. Obviously if Caufield went to the Greyhounds and played with Hayton and/or Frost he would’ve probably put up better numbers than you are suggesting but it’s pretty interesting.

Yeah, it would make a big difference, that would keep his numbers pretty high. Works both ways though. It is like Cajkovic, he could have been near a 70 points player on another team, only scored 46 points because he had no support. Or Veleno last season went from PPG player to 1.5PPG just because of linemates, half more that is huge, really important to factor that in when looking at a player numbers.

 

[Kotkaniemi15]

KK/CC duo is going to be sick

 

[LGBlues]

It will be a shame if this sniper becomes a HOF'r and they keep showing Weber calling him the 50th pick. He had one job … lol.

I hope he proves all the doubters wrong.

 

[Merci Saku]

he usually is...

True,

The guy finished 7th in selke votes, 50+ points, great defensively

I swear some posters here......

 

[danyhabsfan]

I see a smaller version of Pavelski maybe?

 

[Edgy]

You should stop inferring.

You should stop dodging.

 

[Michoulicious]

I see a smaller version of Pavelski maybe?

Went to the same high school, so there's that.

Pavelski was drafted in the 7th round for a reason. I think Caufield has the potential to be more impactful in the NHL sooner than Pavelski.

Can't wait to see how he will produce at the NCAA level... I have the feeling he'll outproduce Kessel. Wisconsin should have a decent team, and Turcotte is going to feed him nice passes.