F Alexis Lafreniere - Rimouski Oceanic, QMJHL (2020 Draft) Part 2

[SympathyForTheDevils]

Maybe I just evaluated him wrong. Tbh I didn't expect him to play in such a cerebral style. More like someone who would just force his way to the net and around players with speed and skill, like MacKinnon maybe. He did seem to have a great understanding of the game.

A lot of people also have that expectation, but it's really not his game. Lafrenière rarely tries to beat people 1-on-1, and prefers to establish possession in the O-zone rather than forcing a play in transition.

Regardless, I think he had as good a tournament as could reasonably have been expected. Draft-eligibles are almost never truly dominant at this tournament (with the exception of that Finnish 1st line from 2016). Even prospective 1st overalls often have a hard time standing out.

 

[Tutu to]

-He’s likely gonna be the CHL player of the year for the second year in a row.
- he was the world junior mvp in his draft year.
- his numbers are comparable to McDavid in junior

Yet some people think he’d go behind Svechnikov or Kakko in the same Draft lol

 

[SuperScript29]

-He’s likely gonna be the CHL player of the year for the second year in a row.
- he was the world junior mvp in his draft year.
- his numbers are comparable to McDavid in junior

Yet some people think he’d go behind Svechnikov or Kakko in the same Draft lol

I don't think he'd go behind Svechnikov or Kakko, but he's not on McDavid's level, I would say he's more around Matthews' ally.

 

[93LEAFS]

I would have thought the Lemieux/Laine comparisons would have died in 2016. It was a ridiculous comparison at the time and still is. Regardless of what that nutjob McCagg says, who just yesterday in a twitter rant tried to compare Leafs fans to Republicans (in a very negative context).

A lot of people also have that expectation, but it's really not his game. Lafrenière rarely tries to beat people 1-on-1, and prefers to establish possession in the O-zone rather than forcing a play in transition.

Regardless, I think he had as good a tournament as could reasonably have been expected. Draft-eligibles are almost never truly dominant at this tournament (with the exception of that Finnish 1st line from 2016). Even prospective 1st overalls often have a hard time standing out.

There are a few examples of late-birthdays having great tournaments. Matthews made the tourney all-star team, Tavares put up 15 points in 6 games, Hall put up 12 points in 6 games, Dahlin was named defenceman of the tournament at 17. Hischier at 17 stood out. So, if you are going to compare him to his peers which are mostly late-birthday 1st overalls, most of them had strong showings. I mean, the only first overalls who haven't stood out in recent years are MacKinnon who got buried by the coach (Drouin had a strong tourney), Ekblad was a solid top 4 defender, RNH didn't make it, Yakupov didn't wow but still got 9 assists in 7 games and McDavid has 11 points in 7 games.

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

There are a few examples of late-birthdays having great tournaments. Matthews made the tourney all-star team, Tavares put up 15 points in 6 games, Hall put up 12 points in 6 games, Dahlin was named defenceman of the tournament at 17. Hischier at 17 stood out. So, if you are going to compare him to his peers which are mostly late-birthday 1st overalls, most of them had strong showings. I mean, the only first overalls who haven't stood out in recent years are MacKinnon who got buried by the coach (Drouin had a strong tourney), Ekblad was a solid top 4 defender, RNH didn't make it, Yakupov didn't wow but still got 9 assists in 7 games and McDavid has 11 points in 7 games.

Well it's kind of a self-selecting sample, since dominating at the WJCs tends to help a player get drafted 1st overall in the first place (it certainly did for Hischier). Even among highly-touted late-birthdays, I wouldn't say dominating the WJCs is the norm. Hedman, Adam Larsson, Ryan Murray, Seth Jones, Sam Reinhart, Draisaitl and Eichel all had good WJC performances but did not stand out as head and shoulders above their peers (though you could argue that it's much harder to do that as a defenseman).

I don't think Lafrenière's WJC performance was as strong as Tavares or Dahlin, but I think it was on roughly the same level as Matthews, Hall and McDavid. Which is pretty good, regardless of where he falls as a prospect.

 

[Mario le Magnifique]

Well it's kind of a self-selecting sample, since dominating at the WJCs tends to help a player get drafted 1st overall in the first place (it certainly did for Hischier). Even among highly-touted late-birthdays, I wouldn't say dominating the WJCs is the norm. Hedman, Adam Larsson, Ryan Murray, Seth Jones, Sam Reinhart, Draisaitl and Eichel all had good WJC performances but did not stand out as head and shoulders above their peers (though you could argue that it's much harder to do that as a defenseman).

I don't think Lafrenière's WJC performance was as strong as Tavares or Dahlin, but I think it was on roughly the same level as Matthews, Hall and McDavid. Which is pretty good, regardless of where he falls as a prospect.

Don't forget the knee injury or something, must've affected his game, although he still dominated.

 

[93LEAFS]

Well it's kind of a self-selecting sample, since dominating at the WJCs tends to help a player get drafted 1st overall in the first place (it certainly did for Hischier). Even among highly-touted late-birthdays, I wouldn't say dominating the WJCs is the norm. Hedman, Adam Larsson, Ryan Murray, Seth Jones, Sam Reinhart, Draisaitl and Eichel all had good WJC performances but did not stand out as head and shoulders above their peers (though you could argue that it's much harder to do that as a defenseman).

I don't think Lafrenière's WJC performance was as strong as Tavares or Dahlin, but I think it was on roughly the same level as Matthews, Hall and McDavid. Which is pretty good, regardless of where he falls as a prospect.

Except pretty much every person outside of Hischier entered the tournament as the #1 prospect for the draft. It is not like Matthews, Hall or Tavares, who were the 3 primary comparables entered as anything but the expected number 1 picks and forwards. Defencemen have a different level impact usually, Seth Jones was a strong player on a USA championship team. You implied it almost never happens outside of the 2016 Finns.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

For those suggesting Lafreniere would definitely go before Laine.

This was Laine's draft year.

33 points in 46 regular season Liiga games. 15 points in 18 playoff games, including 10 goals.

7+6=13 in 7 WJC games.
7+5=12 in 7 WC games.

There's a lot of recency bias when talking about Lafreniere. Every draft we hear the prospects are better than the prospects from previous drafts. There's never a draft where the prospects are worse. Last year, you were criticized if you said the top-end of the draft was weak. So far, it's looking a lot like it was.

And even Svechnikov vs. Lafreniere draft year is closer than some suggest statistically. Svechnikov had 40 goals in 44 OHL games. He was given a very small role at the WJC, but still scored 5 points in 5 games. He didn't end up being released for the WJC18, but had 8 points in the 4 U18 games he played for Russia that year.

No one has said Lafreniere isn't dominating statistically, but dominating statistically is something all the top picks do. Lafreniere averaging over 2PPG and being WJC MVP isn't something that makes him better than other previous elite prospects. If his skillset is better and he is more likely to be an NHL superstar, he's better. Throwing stats out there that they all achieve makes no sense.

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

Except pretty much every person outside of Hischier entered the tournament as the #1 prospect for the draft. It is not like Matthews, Hall or Tavares, who were the 3 primary comparables entered as anything but the expected number 1 picks and forwards. Defencemen have a different level impact usually, Seth Jones was a strong player on a USA championship team. You implied it almost never happens outside of the 2016 Finns.

I meant "top player at your position" kind of dominant. Going back 20 years, it hasn't happened that often (the 2016 kids, Dahlin, Tavares, Kane, Fleury, maybe Hall and McDavid?). Maybe "almost never" was overstating it, but I don't think that kind of performance is common enough that it should be expected of a draft-eligible prospect, regardless of how hyped he is or how late his birthday is.

No one has said Lafreniere isn't dominating statistically, but dominating statistically is something all the top picks do. Lafreniere averaging over 2PPG and being WJC MVP isn't something that makes him better than other previous elite prospects. If his skillset is better and he is more likely to be an NHL superstar, he's better. Throwing stats out there that they all achieve makes no sense.

I completely agree, but that doesn't mean Lafrenière can't have a case to be picked before Laine and Svechnikov. I'd argue he's a significantly better playmaker than both and a better defensive player than either were at that age. Depends on what you want out of a winger.

 

[93LEAFS]

I meant "top player at your position" kind of dominant. Going back 20 years, it hasn't happened that often (the 2016 kids, Dahlin, Tavares, Kane, Fleury, maybe Hall and McDavid?). Maybe "almost never" was overstating it, but I don't think that kind of performance is common enough that it should be expected of a draft-eligible prospect, regardless of how hyped he is or how late his birthday is.

I just mean, it seems to have happened with most late-birthday hyped #1 picks. Not saying it should be expected, but it's fairly common. Maybe not MVP, but Matthews was the only center on the All-Star team, Hall put up 2ppg but was left off the all-star team, Kane made the all-star team and Tavares won MVP. The only other one is Yakupov since 2005 which is the first year of the new draft rules. Its not that rare for players in his position which is a late-birthday #1 overall to have very very strong tournaments.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I completely agree, but that doesn't mean Lafrenière can't have a case to be picked before Laine and Svechnikov. I'd argue he's a significantly better playmaker than both and a better defensive player than either were at that age. Depends on what you want out of a winger.

I think there are a lot of ways you could rank the prospects since McDavid. I can respect a view that has Lafreniere as the best since McDavid. I can also respect a view that doesn't have him within the top five. I think all these views have merit. None of these players other than McDavid were sure-things. We see that with Hughes and Kakko, the consensus top two from last year who are mediocre NHL'ers this season and some people now are willing to suggest they might've not been the top two players in the prior draft These two will likely figure it out and be high-level NHL'ers, but drafting 18 year old prospects is a guessing game. If someone has Lafreniere 3rd or 4th from the 2020 draft, I would disagree, but respect the opinion.

Every year we hear that the prospects are can't miss, yet almost all of them aren't can't miss. McDavid was can't miss. Aside from that, it's all up for debate. A year ago, Marner was supposedly the second best player from the 2015 draft. Now it's Eichel. Who will it be next year? A year ago, Laine was struggling and Matthews had a great season. The Matthews/Laine debates seemed silly. This year, Laine is having a great season and Matthews isn't having his best season. The debates are back. All this stuff is constantly changing, and its often not as easy as the consensus 1OA will definitely be the best, the consensus 2OA will definitely be the second best, and so on and so forth.

 

[93LEAFS]

I think there are a lot of ways you could rank the prospects since McDavid. I can respect a view that has Lafreniere as the best since McDavid. I can also respect a view that doesn't have him within the top five. I think all these views have merit. None of these players other than McDavid were sure-things. We see that with Hughes and Kakko, the consensus top two from last year who are mediocre NHL'ers this season and some people now are willing to suggest they might've not been the top two players in the prior draft These two will likely figure it out and be high-level NHL'ers, but drafting 18 year old prospects is a guessing game. If someone has Lafreniere 3rd or 4th from the 2020 draft, I would disagree, but respect the opinion.

Every year we hear that the prospects are can't miss, yet almost all of them aren't can't miss. McDavid was can't miss. Aside from that, it's all up for debate. A year ago, Marner was supposedly the second best player from the 2015 draft. Now it's Eichel. Who will it be next year? A year ago, Laine was struggling and Matthews had a great season. The Matthews/Laine debates seemed silly. This year, Laine is having a great season and Matthews isn't having his best season. The debates are back. All this stuff is constantly changing, and its often not as easy as the consensus 1OA will definitely be the best, the consensus 2OA will definitely be the second best, and so on and so forth.

Huh? The Matthews/Laine debates aren't back. Matthews is again blowing him out of the water. They still seem silly. I mean, Matthews has 14 more goals and 12 more points, in only 3 more games. I mean, who is seriously arguing Laine over Matthews at this point? Its a closer debate between Laine and Tkachuk at this point.

 

[Dominance]

I would have thought the Lemieux/Laine comparisons would have died in 2016. It was a ridiculous comparison at the time and still is. Regardless of what that nutjob McCagg says, who just yesterday in a twitter rant tried to compare Leafs fans to Republicans (in a very negative context).


There are a few examples of late-birthdays having great tournaments. Matthews made the tourney all-star team, Tavares put up 15 points in 6 games, Hall put up 12 points in 6 games, Dahlin was named defenceman of the tournament at 17. Hischier at 17 stood out. So, if you are going to compare him to his peers which are mostly late-birthday 1st overalls, most of them had strong showings. I mean, the only first overalls who haven't stood out in recent years are MacKinnon who got buried by the coach (Drouin had a strong tourney), Ekblad was a solid top 4 defender, RNH didn't make it, Yakupov didn't wow but still got 9 assists in 7 games and McDavid has 11 points in 7 games.

Sure, but Lafreniere missed the chance to knock up points against the weaker group opponents. I imagine lots of those guys’ points were against a Slovakia or Kazakhstan level opponent in the preliminary games. Lafreniere put up 4 goals and 10 points in a game against the US, a period against the Russians, a QF game against Slovakia where he was returning tentatively from injury, a SF game against Finland, and a gold medal game against Russia. He also impacted the game on a deeper level with his defensive and forechecking excellence and physicality.

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

I just mean, it seems to have happened with most late-birthday hyped #1 picks. Not saying it should be expected, but it's fairly common. Maybe not MVP, but Matthews was the only center on the All-Star team, Hall put up 2ppg but was left off the all-star team, Kane made the all-star team and Tavares won MVP. The only other one is Yakupov since 2005 which is the first year of the new draft rules. Its not that rare for players in his position which is a late-birthday #1 overall to have very very strong tournaments.

Sure. But if you're limiting your analysis to late-birthdays who were strong favorites for 1st overall by mid-year, you're left with a very small sample of very elite prospects. I'd also note that Ovechkin, who was just outside your cutoff, fit that criteria and didn't dominate to that extent. Arguably Seth Jones as well. Still, point taken.

I think there are a lot of ways you could rank the prospects since McDavid. I can respect a view that has Lafreniere as the best since McDavid. I can also respect a view that doesn't have him within the top five. I think all these views have merit. None of these players other than McDavid were sure-things. We see that with Hughes and Kakko, the consensus top two from last year who are mediocre NHL'ers this season and some people now are willing to suggest they might've not been the top two players in the prior draft These two will likely figure it out and be high-level NHL'ers, but drafting 18 year old prospects is a guessing game. If someone has Lafreniere 3rd or 4th from the 2020 draft, I would disagree, but respect the opinion.

Every year we hear that the prospects are can't miss, yet almost all of them aren't can't miss. McDavid was can't miss. Aside from that, it's all up for debate. A year ago, Marner was supposedly the second best player from the 2015 draft. Now it's Eichel. Who will it be next year? A year ago, Laine was struggling and Matthews had a great season. The Matthews/Laine debates seemed silly. This year, Laine is having a great season and Matthews isn't having his best season. The debates are back. All this stuff is constantly changing, and its often not as easy as the consensus 1OA will definitely be the best, the consensus 2OA will definitely be the second best, and so on and so forth.

General interest in prospects in any given year is always driven by fans who have spent months watching their team get pummeled, so there's always going to be a bit more hope than realism. I don't really have a problem with it, even though it seems a bit pointless (on what basis do you even compare, say, Lafrenière and Dahlin?). Though I do wish there was more conversation about those players' actual assets, rather than their numbers.

 

[Jabba11]

Kakko, Laine, Matthews, Eichel, Jack Hughes, Dahlin, heck even McDavid, none of them have the killer instinct that Lafreniere has. No matter what statistics say, if you can't see how Lafreniere has this over any of the above mentioned players, then I don't know what else to say.

No bias. Lafreniere's understanding and anticipation of the game is beyond any of the previous players mentioned above. I will say this and stand by it for the next few years, but we will see Lafreniere become a Stanley Cup Champion before Connor McDavid.

Lafreniere is a puck hound, an enforcer, a power forward, a 2 way player and a goddamn skilled puck handling player all in one. This kid is close to what what Maurice Richard used to be. And that, is a winner.

Laffy's killer instinct is way beyond the mentioned players. ee doesn't need to be fancy. By the end of the day, I don't care if a players scores 100-120 pts in a season, but if his team doesn't make the playoffs or he doesn't win the Cup, then it means nothing. McDavid is far from being Crosby level. Because Crosby is a winner. McDavid is not.

 

[93LEAFS]

Kakko, Laine, Matthews, Eichel, Jack Hughes, Dahlin, heck even McDavid, none of them have the killer instinct that Lafreniere has. No matter what statistics say, if you can't see how Lafreniere has this over any of the above mentioned players, then I don't know what else to say.

No bias. Lafreniere's understanding and anticipation of the game is beyond any of the previous players mentioned above. I will say this and stand by it for the next few years, but we will see Lafreniere become a Stanley Cup Champion before Connor McDavid.

Lafreniere is a puck hound, an enforcer, a power forward, a 2 way player and a goddamn skilled puck handling player all in one. This kid is close to what what Maurice Richard used to be. And that, is a winner.

Laffy's killer instinct is way beyond the mentioned players. ee doesn't need to be fancy. By the end of the day, I don't care if a players scores 100-120 pts in a season, but if his team doesn't make the playoffs or he doesn't win the Cup, then it means nothing. McDavid is far from being Crosby level. Because Crosby is a winner. McDavid is not.

This is complete bias. You already mentioned your bias because he's the savior of French Canadian Hockey. It seems most in the scouting community would take guys like Matthews, Eichel and Dahlin ahead of Lafreniere.

It is funny how so few actual scouting sources are coming out saying what you are saying. I haven't even seen one respected source even entertain the idea of him ahead of McDavid. Hell, places last year were having trouble putting him ahead of Hughes.

Seriously, he's won one WJC? What about this winner going out in the quarters last year. What's Rimouski won? McDavid, Kakko, and Laine won a WJC. This is just extreme hyperbole, for you to claim no bias is absurd. If he's really this huge winner you claim him to be, I expect to see Rimouski be the Memorial Cup Champions in May. Or, is he gonna lead his NHL team to the playoffs in year 1 like Matthews?

Look, its fine to prefer him over other players, but this is just a ridiculous take.

 

[jj cale]

He sure didn't hurt himself this tournament that's for sure. I don't put him in the Mcdavid tier and I hesitate to put him in the Eichel/Dahlin/Matthews tier but he has made a case for himself that he might be in it. He is for sure as hell as good a prospect as Hughes or Kakko though.

We will see soon enough just where he firmly slots in.

 

[KingTux]

A bigger and meaner Joe Pavelski

 

[nbwingsfan]

Kakko, Laine, Matthews, Eichel, Jack Hughes, Dahlin, heck even McDavid, none of them have the killer instinct that Lafreniere has. No matter what statistics say, if you can't see how Lafreniere has this over any of the above mentioned players, then I don't know what else to say.

No bias. Lafreniere's understanding and anticipation of the game is beyond any of the previous players mentioned above. I will say this and stand by it for the next few years, but we will see Lafreniere become a Stanley Cup Champion before Connor McDavid.

Lafreniere is a puck hound, an enforcer, a power forward, a 2 way player and a goddamn skilled puck handling player all in one. This kid is close to what what Maurice Richard used to be. And that, is a winner.

Laffy's killer instinct is way beyond the mentioned players. ee doesn't need to be fancy. By the end of the day, I don't care if a players scores 100-120 pts in a season, but if his team doesn't make the playoffs or he doesn't win the Cup, then it means nothing. McDavid is far from being Crosby level. Because Crosby is a winner. McDavid is not.

As someone who is a big fan of Lafreniere and has seen over 50 games of his... he’s no where close to McDavid and to say you’d rather Lafreniere is pure non-sense.

Every player “isn’t a winner” until they win. Lafreniere has also won nothing.

 

[BondraTime]

He’s better than Hughes and Laine, but below McDavid and Eichel.

He’s in the Matthews and Dahlin tier, but I wouldn’t blame or question anyone taking either before Lafreniere.

 

[Hfbsux]

Is it just me or lots of posters around here try to discredit him?

Before the WJC it was him or Byfield.
That claim went quiet and now it's:
"He's not close from McDavid"
"Laine, Matthews or Eichel would go before him"

Who cares? Why can't we just enjoy special talents like we did with McDavid? There was no reaching to put him down on his threads.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

He sure didn't hurt himself this tournament that's for sure. I don't put him in the Mcdavid tier and I hesitate to put him in the Eichel/Dahlin/Matthews tier but he has made a case for himself that he might be in it. He is for sure as hell as good a prospect as Hughes or Kakko though.

We will see soon enough just where he firmly slots in.

I think he's in the Eichel/Matthews tier. The only knock (for lack of a better word) is he's a winger while they play center, so that's always going to make him look like a lesser version, IMO.

 

[jj cale]

I think he's in the Eichel/Matthews tier. The only knock (for lack of a better word) is he's a winger while they play center, so that's always going to make him look like a lesser version, IMO.

He may be, I am just not totally sold on that yet. I do think he will have a better rookie season then guys like Kakko and Hughes next year, his I.Q and ability to make quick offensive reads is really impressive and he's got a really, really good shot, plus he's a pretty big boy and you can tell he's strong, he's got a thick torso and neck, his willingness to mix it up and get his nose dirty will serve him well too.

If doesn't get at least 50 points I would be disappointed honestly, he looks like he should be pro ready and able to make a decent impact by next season.

 

[Mickey Marner]

He may be, I am just not totally sold on that yet. I do think he will have a better rookie season then guys like Kakko and Hughes next year, his I.Q and ability to make quick offensive reads is really impressive and he's got a really, really good shot, plus he's a pretty big boy and you can tell he's strong, he's got a thick torso and neck, his willingness to mix it up and get his nose dirty will serve him well too.

If doesn't get at least 50 points I would be disappointed honestly, he looks like he should be pro ready and able to make a decent impact by next season.

He would've scored over 50 this season, I expect him to clear 70. He'll be a top-1o LW in the league next season. Easily the most mature prospect since Matthews.

 

[jj cale]

He would've scored over 50 this season, I expect him to clear 70. He'll be a top-1o LW in the league next season. Easily the most mature prospect since Matthews.

Hmm, lofty expectations.

I really hope he meets them.