F Alexis Lafreniere - Rimouski Oceanic, QMJHL (2020 Draft) Part 2

[newfy]

Tavares won CHL player of the year at 16, yet most scouts would have taken Stamkos over him at 17. Plus, he won it at 17 which has happened a few times such as McDavid, Drouin, Pierre-Marc Bouchard, etc. Lafreniere isn't doing what Crosby did. Both Matthews and Eichel have clear advantages on physical tools, Eichel destroyed Hockey East at 18, which is a way tougher league and Matthews was arguably the best player in a men's league and the best player on the USA's World Championship squad. Lafreniere is a great prospect but would likely go behind Matthews and Eichel on most teams boards.

Its not right to list guys like Drouin and Pierre Marc Bouchard who won it in their draft years to Lafreniere winning it in his draft -1 year. Lafreniere is going to have 2 CHL player of the years before hes drafted. Same with McDavid, he only actually won in his draft year.

What I'm saying is, Lafreniere has played world juniors and is going to have 2 CHL players of the year by his draft. Thats ahead of what all these other guys did.

I dont really think they have clear advantages on all their physical tools either. Unless youre talking only skating and shot. I think Lafreniere shot is better than Eichels, his vision is better than Matthews and hes much more physical than both.His number one physical tool over both of these guys though is his motor. Cant count on Matthews on Eichel to be engaged every game making things happen like Lafreniere does. Maybe they have some tools better than him but hes not far off in a lot of ways but way more consistent/competitive at the same age

 

[93LEAFS]

Its not right to list guys like Drouin and Pierre Marc Bouchard who won it in their draft years to Lafreniere winning it in his draft -1 year. Lafreniere is going to have 2 CHL player of the years before hes drafted. Same with McDavid, he only actually won in his draft year.

What I'm saying is, Lafreniere has played world juniors and is going to have 2 CHL players of the year by his draft. Thats ahead of what all these other guys did.

I dont really think they have clear advantages on all their physical tools either. Unless youre talking only skating and shot. I think Lafreniere shot is better than Eichels, his vision is better than Matthews and hes much more physical than both.His number one physical tool over both of these guys though is his motor. Cant count on Matthews on Eichel to be engaged every game making things happen like Lafreniere does. Maybe they have some tools better than him but hes not far off in a lot of ways but way more consistent/competitive at the same age

Yes, it is fair to compare 17-year-old CHL seasons to 17-year-old CHL seasons. Draft year isn't the only thing. Only something like 35% of players are born before after the draft cut-off. The CHL uses the December 31st cut-off for entry, so it is absolutely fair to measure 2nd year CHL players against 2nd year CHL players. I mean, only two 16-year-olds in recent memory have won CHL Player of the Year (Tavares and Crosby), but that seems to be who you'd rather compare him with.

Matthews was and is, significantly stronger on the puck than Lafreniere due to his build. He may play with more physicality, but lets see how that carries over the NHL. That stuff can disappear when you are playing again.

And, no, he isn't more consistent than either at the same age. Matthews led the Swiss league in goals per game at the same age, with many former NHL players in it. Eichel was the best player in the NCAA. The NHL will humble people. I doubt he has the same level of consistency in the NHL, which seems to be what you are measuring it against. Matthews and Eichel were insanely consistent and dominant against their age group. How is 2 CHL players of the Year ahead of what these guys did? They didn't play in the CHL. Its pretty ridiculous and seems to be looking at prospects through the narrow eyes of CHL only. Matthews left the USNTDP with significant records, and was the first big name NA player to go overseas, where he was a top player in a good league. Eichel won the Hobby Baker as a player who wasn't even draft-eligible yet, something that hasn't been done before or since.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

I'm talking specifically pre-Draft date. Matthews likely goes ahead of everyone except maybe Eichel. He wasn't overhyped pre-draft. You can say whatever you want about Toronto overhype, but he was the a top 3 player in the Swiss League at 18, and was the best player on the American World Championship team at 18.

Very few teams would take Lafreniere over a center with the skill profiles of Eichel and Matthews. 6'3 220 pound centers who can score 40 goals are insanely rare. He just turned 22, look how long it took a lot of young centers to turn into high-end defensive players.

Lafreniere is a great prospect but is beating up on a pretty shallow QMJHL which has been declining in quality for years. MacKinnon was a better prospect than he was. I would put him around the same level as Taylor Hall was as a prospect when we are talking about Canadian wingers.

How has the Q been declining in quality for years? I think you are very low on Lafreniere but that will only really be proven once he hits the NHL.

 

[Peasy]

Yes, it is fair to compare 17-year-old CHL seasons to 17-year-old CHL seasons. Draft year isn't the only thing. Only something like 35% of players are born before after the draft cut-off. The CHL uses the December 31st cut-off for entry, so it is absolutely fair to measure 2nd year CHL players against 2nd year CHL players. I mean, only two 16-year-olds in recent memory have won CHL Player of the Year (Tavares and Crosby), but that seems to be who you'd rather compare him with.

Matthews was and is, significantly stronger on the puck than Lafreniere due to his build. He may play with more physicality, but lets see how that carries over the NHL. That stuff can disappear when you are playing again.

And, no, he isn't more consistent than either at the same age. Matthews led the Swiss league in goals per game at the same age, with many former NHL players in it. Eichel was the best player in the NCAA. The NHL will humble people. I doubt he has the same level of consistency in the NHL, which seems to be what you are measuring it against. Matthews and Eichel were insanely consistent and dominant against their age group. How is 2 CHL players of the Year ahead of what these guys did? They didn't play in the CHL. Its pretty ridiculous and seems to be looking at prospects through the narrow eyes of CHL only. Matthews left the USNTDP with significant records, and was the first big name NA player to go overseas, where he was a top player in a good league. Eichel won the Hobby Baker as a player who wasn't even draft-eligible yet, something that hasn't been done before or since.

Just need to look at Kakko for this type of example. The NHL is completely different.

 

[93LEAFS]

How has the Q been declining in quality for years? I think you are very low on Lafreniere but that will only really be proven once he hits the NHL.

Have you seen the rate of players they produce? It has declined for years. Look at how many players they have getting drafted on a yearly basis compared to the other 2 leagues. They've had multiple years in the past 4 years where they only had 14 players drafted out of the Q (also significantly depending on imports). Compare that to 2005-2009 where they never had less than 23 guys taken in a year.

I don't think to call him an average to good 1st overall is very low on him. I just don't think he's the 2nd best draft prospect of the 2010's, and is closer to 5-7. I don't think he's a clearly better prospect than Taylor Hall was at the same age. He's great, and will be a franchise piece for someone.

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

Him Veleno and Zadina are going to be a sick line

 

[newfy]

Yes, it is fair to compare 17-year-old CHL seasons to 17-year-old CHL seasons. Draft year isn't the only thing. Only something like 35% of players are born before after the draft cut-off. The CHL uses the December 31st cut-off for entry, so it is absolutely fair to measure 2nd year CHL players against 2nd year CHL players. I mean, only two 16-year-olds in recent memory have won CHL Player of the Year (Tavares and Crosby), but that seems to be who you'd rather compare him with.

Matthews was and is, significantly stronger on the puck than Lafreniere due to his build. He may play with more physicality, but lets see how that carries over the NHL. That stuff can disappear when you are playing again.

And, no, he isn't more consistent than either at the same age. Matthews led the Swiss league in goals per game at the same age, with many former NHL players in it. Eichel was the best player in the NCAA. The NHL will humble people. I doubt he has the same level of consistency in the NHL, which seems to be what you are measuring it against. Matthews and Eichel were insanely consistent and dominant against their age group. How is 2 CHL players of the Year ahead of what these guys did? They didn't play in the CHL. Its pretty ridiculous and seems to be looking at prospects through the narrow eyes of CHL only. Matthews left the USNTDP with significant records, and was the first big name NA player to go overseas, where he was a top player in a good league. Eichel won the Hobby Baker as a player who wasn't even draft-eligible yet, something that hasn't been done before or since.

Yes all those guys consistently produced points in the lower leagues they played in. They have enough talent to do it. That doesnt mean they have a motor like Lafreniere. Even today in the NHL those guys leave you wanting more a lot of the time when you watch them. Not the case with Lafreniere

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

Have you seen the rate of players they produce? It has declined for years. Look at how many players they have getting drafted on a yearly basis compared to the other 2 leagues. They've had multiple years in the past 4 years where they only had 14 players drafted out of the Q (also significantly depending on imports). Compare that to 2005-2009 where they never had less than 23 guys taken in a year.

I don't think to call him an average to good 1st overall is very low on him. I just don't think he's the 2nd best draft prospect of the 2010's, and is closer to 5-7. I don't think he's a clearly better prospect than Taylor Hall was at the same age. He's great, and will be a franchise piece for someone.

That's very misleading. There's a lot of year-to-year variance but the proportion of players drafted from the Q hasn't changed all that much in the past 30 years. The slight decline from the peak in the mid-00s to today can be attributed to teams drafting more from Europe and the US than from the CHL. Supporting this is the fact that both the OHL and the WHL have seen an even bigger drop than the Q in the last 5 years compared to the 5 previous.

Beyond that, number of NHL players drafted is a pretty shallow measure of a league's quality. When the Q has actually gone head-to-head with the other CHL leagues in the past few years, like in the Memorial Cup, or indirectly in the Canada Russia Series, the Q has arguably gotten the best results.

I don't even disagree that much about Lafrenière. I would have taken Dahlin over him, and possibly Matthews and Eichel, if only because they're centers. But I do think you overstate the difference in their frame. Matthews and Eichel were both 6'2 when they were drafted. Lafrenière might very well reach that by the time he gets to the combine.

 

[oooooooooohCanada]

Idk if posted but Craig Button compared Lafreniere's style / level of player to a Huberdeau/Rantanen combo. And also said he's not at the same level of prospect as a Matthews or Eichel.

 

[93LEAFS]

That's very misleading. There's a lot of year-to-year variance but the proportion of players drafted from the Q hasn't changed all that much in the past 30 years. The slight decline from the peak in the mid-00s to today can be attributed to teams drafting more from Europe and the US than from the CHL. Supporting this is the fact that both the OHL and the WHL have seen an even bigger drop than the Q in the last 5 years compared to the 5 previous.

Beyond that, number of NHL players drafted is a pretty shallow measure of a league's quality. When the Q has actually gone head-to-head with the other CHL leagues in the past few years, like in the Memorial Cup, or indirectly in the Canada Russia Series, the Q has arguably gotten the best results.

I don't even disagree that much about Lafrenière. I would have taken Dahlin over him, and possibly Matthews and Eichel, if only because they're centers. But I do think you overstate the difference in their frame. Matthews and Eichel were both 6'2 when they were drafted. Lafrenière might very well reach that by the time he gets to the combine.

There is more to size than just height. Look at Matthews frame, he's entered the league at about 220. He has about 30 pounds on Lafreniere and carried it fine.

I would say the OHL and WHL have also gone down in quality in recent years. But, the QMJHL is by far the most reliant on import talent. The Memorial Cup is always a terrible measure of league level. Just look at the amount of players in the QMJHL who couldn't make the OHL. There is always an abundance of Ontario kids who couldn't make the OHL in the Q. Sometimes, its a rare case like Giroux, but normally, its just not great talent who were rightfully passed over.

 

[93LEAFS]

Yes all those guys consistently produced points in the lower leagues they played in. They have enough talent to do it. That doesnt mean they have a motor like Lafreniere. Even today in the NHL those guys leave you wanting more a lot of the time when you watch them. Not the case with Lafreniere

They didn't in junior. How do you know Lafreniere won't leave people wanting more as soon as he steps on NHL ice.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I think he's better than the top two picks from the 2019 draft, but I wouldn't put him above any of the recent top tier centers or defensemen pre-draft. His draft hype is helped being Canadian, and I think his stats are helped playing junior hockey and being an older draft eligible.

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

There is more to size than just height. Look at Matthews frame, he's entered the league at about 220. He has about 30 pounds on Lafreniere and carried it fine.

I would say the OHL and WHL have also gone down in quality in recent years. But, the QMJHL is by far the most reliant on import talent. The Memorial Cup is always a terrible measure of league level. Just look at the amount of players in the QMJHL who couldn't make the OHL. There is always an abundance of Ontario kids who couldn't make the OHL in the Q. Sometimes, its a rare case like Giroux, but normally, its just not great talent who were rightfully passed over.

The Q is more reliant on import talent (although that's mostly because Americans don't count as imports). And yes, there's always a few Ontario kids in the Q, though they're mostly depth players. Ontario has more than twice as many kids playing hockey than there are in the eastern provinces; there's always gonna be some overflow. I'm just saying that there isn't a big difference in the level of play in the three CHL leagues.

And while the Mem Cup may not a good measure of league level, neither is the NHL draft, which involves a plethora of factors that have nothing to do with how good the player or the league is.

 

[93LEAFS]

The Q is more reliant on import talent (although that's mostly because Americans don't count as imports). And yes, there's always a few Ontario kids in the Q, though they're mostly depth players. Ontario has more than twice as many kids playing hockey than there are in the eastern provinces; there's always gonna be some overflow. I'm just saying that there isn't a big difference in the level of play in the three CHL leagues.

And while the Mem Cup may not a good measure of league level, neither is the NHL draft, which involves a plethora of factors that have nothing to do with how good the player or the league is.

Well, if Ontario has twice the amount of players, and the Q needs to get players from that region, it probably shows Ontario has a stronger league. I mean, I can't think of any OHL player who couldn't make the QMJHL but then made the OHL. You can find around 15 to 20 every year in the QMJHL, basically an entire team's worth of players.

I'd say the amount of talent they are getting drafted is more reflective of the league's overall depth and talent. Its also shown across many studies that OHL and WHL scoring transfer to the NHL at a higher rate than QMJHL scoring.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Well, if Ontario has twice the amount of players, and the Q needs to get players from that region, it probably shows Ontario has a stronger league. I mean, I can't think of any OHL player who couldn't make the QMJHL but then made the OHL. You can find around 15 to 20 every year in the QMJHL, basically an entire team's worth of players.

I'd say the amount of talent they are getting drafted is more reflective of the league's overall depth and talent. Its also shown across many studies that OHL and WHL scoring transfer to the NHL at a higher rate than QMJHL scoring.

It is a reflection of the leagues depth for sure. I don't really think there is any argument that the OHL is stronger then the Q and the WHL but I can not get on board with just blindly calling the WHL a stronger league because they populate more NHL 3rd and 4th lines. When is the last time the WHL developed a Crosby or Mackinnon level talent? Hell even Marchand.

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

Well, if Ontario has twice the amount of players, and the Q needs to get players from that region, it probably shows Ontario has a stronger league. I mean, I can't think of any OHL player who couldn't make the QMJHL but then made the OHL. You can find around 15 to 20 every year in the QMJHL, basically an entire team's worth of players.

I'd say the amount of talent they are getting drafted is more reflective of the league's overall depth and talent. Its also shown across many studies that OHL and WHL scoring transfer to the NHL at a higher rate than QMJHL scoring.

Could you share those? I'm genuinely curious. I've never seen a serious study on that subject, just the odd blogger f***ing around with numbers and the people doing equivalency factors (which are worthless for junior leagues).

 

[93LEAFS]

It is a reflection of the leagues depth for sure. I don't really think there is any argument that the OHL is stronger then the Q and the WHL but I can not get on board with just blindly calling the WHL a stronger league because they populate more NHL 3rd and 4th lines. When is the last time the WHL developed a Crosby or Mackinnon level talent? Hell even Marchand.

I mean, Benn before he fell off a cliff. They also have a bunch of the good young defenders in the league like Seth Jones, and Morgan Rielly. And, if you want to point to the very top, when was the last time the Q developed a Price or Holtby?

Could you share those? I'm genuinely curious. I've never seen a serious study on that subject, just the odd blogger ****ing around with numbers and the people doing equivalency factors (which are worthless for junior leagues).

From 2015 Stat-trick by Rob Vollman there is a deep dive into it. He specifically focused on what players did in the NHL by more than one season. He finished with an adjusted scoring rate for junior of 1.10 OHL, 1.05 WHL, and .95 QMJHL.

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

I mean, Benn before he fell off a cliff. They also have a bunch of the good young defenders in the league like Seth Jones, and Morgan Rielly. And, if you want to point to the very top, when was the last time the Q developed a Price or Holtby?


From 2015 Stat-trick by Rob Vollman there is a deep dive into it. He specifically focused on what players did in the NHL by more than one season. He finished with an adjusted scoring rate for junior of 1.10 OHL, 1.05 WHL, and .95 QMJHL.

I like Vollman's work on NHLe, but given that it's based on 15 years of data, it's not very well-suited to telling how good the league is right now.

IMO the league is in a better place now than 10 years ago. But as usual, it'll take a while for people to catch on. We'll see how Lafrenière does when he gets the opportunity.

 

[93LEAFS]

I like Vollman's work on NHLe, but given that it's based on 15 years of data, it's not very well-suited to telling how good the league is right now.

IMO the league is in a better place now than 10 years ago. But as usual, it'll take a while for people to catch on. We'll see how Lafrenière does when he gets the opportunity.

It was actually a chapter written by someone else, and it was meant to be different than NHLe, focusing on how scoring translated to future success, not just the next season. Look, if leagues rapidly change it won't be accurate, but historical data is all we have to go off of when making those conclusions.

 

[Tutu to]

The Q produces better forwards then the W easily. Crosby, Mackinon, Lafreniere, Marchand ect. Also I don’t think Mac was considered a better prospect then Lafreniere when drafted.

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

It was actually a chapter written by someone else, and it was meant to be different than NHLe, focusing on how scoring translated to future success, not just the next season. Look, if leagues rapidly change it won't be accurate, but historical data is all we have to go off of when making those conclusions.

Oh I agree. It's the right decision: since they'll need to assess leagues with few people making a direct transition to the NHL (like the Allvenskan or Extraliga), they need to use longer periods of time to get a half-decent sample size. I just think it limits the conclusions that can be drawn from those tools.

I'd be curious to see what these numbers look like year-to-year. But I'm too lazy to do the work, so I can't really complain.

 

[Corso]

Have had the opportunity to watch him a few times this year (though never live and that does make a difference in assessments). His greatest attribute is his sense of the game, which is off the charts. His shot is very good, and is skating is above average though not elite. He will not be the goal scorer that Mathews is and he just doesn't have the skating that a Jack Eichel possesses. He is not as flashy as say a Jack Hughes, though he most likely would have went first over-all last year. He is a good Number one pick and will make an impact next year for what ever team is lucky enough to draft him.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

Lafreniére with 3 goal 2 assist game. Mini slump over; prior to this game, 1+2 in his last 3 games.

 

[Gold Standard]

had himself a game! gotta love those 5pt. nights. I'm more interested in him having himself 7 games between Dec. 26-Jan 5. and skipping town with a gold medal in his jeans pocket.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

had himself a game! gotta love those 5pt. nights. I'm more interested in him having himself 7 games between Dec. 26-Jan 5. and skipping town with a gold medal in his jeans pocket.

We are gonna win it again thou...