F Alexis Lafreniere - Rimouski Oceanic, QMJHL (2020 Draft) Part 2

[ijuka]

How exactly is that not a great tell? One very rarely ever happens, and a PPG 16yo season happens basically every season.

We’ll see if Byfield can be CHL player of the year and make team Canada like Lafreniere did

I don't know what logic you use to have the 16-year-old season as more valuable than the 17-year-old season.

BTW, CHL player of the year is a voted award and not very important. It's dependent, among other things, on there not being better CHL players that year.

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

an arbitrary NHL date for the purposes of a pro draft has nothing to do with a international aged tournament. He was an '01 born player playing in a tournament for '01 born players. As 1 of the 3-4 best players in that particular tournament he should have dominated. and he did what was expected of him. I don't give him extra brownie points for that.

He falls way behind McDavid, and I'd probably still take Matthews and Dalhin ahead of him as well. If he had been born 3 weeks earlier and eligible with the rest of his '01 peers, I would have taken Hughes/Kakko before him. but he may prove that I was completely out to lunch on that call. TBD.

So you exchange one arbitrary cutoff date for another that suits you better?

I'm curious if people did the same to Matthews, who was born only 2 days after the draft cutoff. Or to Tavares, Hall, Draisaitl, Eichel, Patrick Kane and Ovechkin, who were all late-born players. Hell, McDavid and Hischier were early Jan, so they count too. All these players (except for Tavares) look significantly worse at the draft if you just decide to erase their draft season completely because of their age. They somehow managed to become pretty great players regardless.

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

I don't know what logic you use to have the 16-year-old season as more valuable than the 17-year-old season.

BTW, CHL player of the year is a voted award and not very important. It's dependent, among other things, on there not being better CHL players that year.

Well... Yes. That's what that award means. That there were no better CHL players that year.

What makes it more impressive is that the CHL contains mostly 18-19-20 years old players, many of whom were drafted, and who should be, in theory, better than any draft-eligible players if only because they're older and stronger. Justin Azevedo was CHL player of the year at the same time that Steven Stamkos and John Tavares were dominating the same league. It's not an easy award to get for an underage player.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

People's obsession over late drafts on this site is hilarious....It probably makes a difference later in the draft in the sense that some of the younger players in the draft could have unrealized potential that a older player might not have. When we are talking about the elite of the elite level prospects it doesn't mean a god damn thing. You take the best player and who you think will be the best player whichever one was born 6 months earlier or later is irrelevant. You can run down the list of late birthdays at the top of the draft...

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

Matthews vs Laine thread!!! Lets go fam

edit: Can someone tell me how Alexis matches up to past 1st overall picks? Cheers

I think it’s really too early to tell. I like a lot of Hughes’ skills better, but Lafrienere plays a more pot-style game and does nearly everything at an elite level. I’d say these are my tiers since 2010:

Mcdavid

Dahlin

Lafrienere
Matthews/Mackinnon

Hughes
Hall
Ekblad

Nugent-Hopkins













Yakupov

 

[snipes]

The kids numbers are even better then McDavids in Junior. Everyone talks about him being a year older then McDavid was but it’s only 3 months. I don’t see him as a McDavid level prospect but I see him above Taylor Hall. Also rate him higher then Jack Hughes. Especially for the NHL game.

Best winger prospect since Ovi.

His skill along with his physicality and “reverse elbow” hit in the corner is Gordie Howe-lite

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

People's obsession over late drafts on this site is hilarious....It probably makes a difference later in the draft in the sense that some of the younger players in the draft could have unrealized potential that a older player might not have. When we are talking about the elite of the elite level prospects it doesn't mean a god damn thing. You take the best player and who you think will be the best player whichever one was born 6 months earlier or later is irrelevant. You can run down the list of late birthdays at the top of the draft...

Age can have an effect, but it may the opposite of what people seem to think. There's evidence for an RAE reversal among elite Canadian players. At that level, late-born players tend to perform slightly better as pros, despite being less likely to be drafted.

 

[ProspectsSTC]

I think it’s really too early to tell. I like a lot of Hughes’ skills better, but Lafrienere plays a more pot-style game and does nearly everything at an elite level. I’d say these are my tiers since 2010:

Mcdavid

Dahlin

Lafrienere
Matthews/Mackinnon

Hughes
Hall
Ekblad

Nugent-Hopkins













Yakupov

Ekblad in the same tier as a Hart trophy winner?

 

[ijuka]

Well... Yes. That's what that award means. That there were no better CHL players that year.

How would you like this point: If this year's Byfield had been there vs last year's Lafreniere, Lafreniere wouldn't have been the one to win it.

So, indeed. Dependent on external factors, dependent on popularity vote. It's not a very useful indicator of anything at all.

I think it’s really too early to tell. I like a lot of Hughes’ skills better, but Lafrienere plays a more pot-style game and does nearly everything at an elite level. I’d say these are my tiers since 2010:

Mcdavid

Dahlin

Lafrienere
Matthews/Mackinnon

Hughes
Hall
Ekblad

Nugent-Hopkins













Yakupov

Genuinely curious about why Ekblad is ahead of Nugent-Hopkins.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

Ekblad in the same tier as a Hart trophy winner?

Different levels of that tier, but yes.

 

[ProspectsSTC]

Different levels of that tier, but yes.

Huh. Can't agree with that at all, and definitely not putting him above Nuge unless he shows serious growth in his game soon

 

[Hustlr]

I think it’s really too early to tell. I like a lot of Hughes’ skills better, but Lafrienere plays a more pot-style game and does nearly everything at an elite level. I’d say these are my tiers since 2010:

Mcdavid

Dahlin

Lafrienere
Matthews/Mackinnon

Hughes
Hall
Ekblad

Nugent-Hopkins













Yakupov

Thank you, you’re the first person to give me a list and I appreciate it. To see he’s got the potential to be in that tier is what I was curious about. Cheers!

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

How would you like this point: If this year's Byfield had been there vs last year's Lafreniere, Lafreniere wouldn't have been the one to win it.

So, indeed. Dependent on external factors, dependent on popularity vote. It's not a very useful indicator of anything at all.

This year's Byfield total of 8 games played does not qualify him for many awards, this year or last year. We'll see about this in May.

 

[SelltheTeamFrancesco]

I think it’s really too early to tell. I like a lot of Hughes’ skills better, but Lafrienere plays a more pot-style game and does nearly everything at an elite level. I’d say these are my tiers since 2010:

Mcdavid

Dahlin

Lafrienere
Matthews/Mackinnon

Hughes
Hall
Ekblad

Nugent-Hopkins













Yakupov

Forgot 2017 Hischier

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

Forgot 2017 Hischier

I realized that. I’d probably put him in RNHs tier with a chance to bump up a tier

 

[nbwingsfan]

I don't know what logic you use to have the 16-year-old season as more valuable than the 17-year-old season.

BTW, CHL player of the year is a voted award and not very important. It's dependent, among other things, on there not being better CHL players that year.

When have I ever said a 16yo season is more important?

I’ve said what they’ve done so far, Lafreniere has been ahead of Byfield every step of the way.

What the hell kind of logic is there in saying MVP of the entire league isn’t important

Have you seen the list of 17yos to win that?

 

[nbwingsfan]

How would you like this point: If this year's Byfield had been there vs last year's Lafreniere, Lafreniere wouldn't have been the one to win it.

So, indeed. Dependent on external factors, dependent on popularity vote. It's not a very useful indicator of anything at all.

Genuinely curious about why Ekblad is ahead of Nugent-Hopkins.

This years Byfield? You mean the guy with 8 games played?

 

[Artorius Horus T]

After scoring just total of 2 assists in his first 2 games: 3 points, 4 points, 4 points, 2 points, 2 points, 3 points, 4 points, 2 points
or after going pointless in his first game of the season: 2 points, 3 points, 4 points, 4 points, 2 points, 2 points, 3 points, 4 points, 2 points

 

[Tutu to]

Are there people that would draft 2019 Hughes over 2020 Lafreniere?

 

[Gold Standard]

So you exchange one arbitrary cutoff date for another that suits you better?

I'm curious if people did the same to Matthews, who was born only 2 days after the draft cutoff. Or to Tavares, Hall, Draisaitl, Eichel, Patrick Kane and Ovechkin, who were all late-born players. Hell, McDavid and Hischier were early Jan, so they count too. All these players (except for Tavares) look significantly worse at the draft if you just decide to erase their draft season completely because of their age. They somehow managed to become pretty great players regardless.

What exactly was arbitrary about it? Is he or isn't he an '01 born player? Was he or wasn't he playing in a tournament of his peers i.e, 2001 born players? He doesn't get any extra credit from me because he has a late b-day. The same way I wouldn't attribute a minus to a player playing in a tournament as an actual underager (double underager) who didn't quite light it up. case in point, Lafreniere at last year's U20s. I suspect he'll be a much better this year.

and nobody is erasing draft season performance, but I do have my own way of evaluating players, and I'm evaluating 17 year old Byfield to 17 year old Lafraniere. The poster to whom I responded has his own way.

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

What exactly was arbitrary about it? Is he or isn't he an '01 born player? Was he or wasn't he playing in a tournament of his peers i.e, 2001 born players? He doesn't get any extra credit from me because he has a late b-day. The same way I wouldn't attribute a minus to a player playing in a tournament as an actual underager (double underager) who didn't quite light it up. case in point, Lafreniere at last year's U20s. I suspect he'll be a much better this year.

and nobody is erasing draft season performance, but I do have my own way of evaluating players, and I'm evaluating 17 year old Byfield to 17 year old Lafraniere. The poster to whom I responded has his own way.

Let me put it differently: 1st of January is 100% as arbitrary as 15th of September. Any binning of age into years requires an arbitrary cutoff. "Year of birth" is just as arbitrary as "draft class". So comparing him to other 01s is not better in any way to comparing him to other 2020s. The only difference is that it advantages him less, and advantages Jan-Feb born kids more. And given available data, it's clearly not better at predicting NHL success, considering that late-born players are over-represented among Canadian elite players.

Ultimately it doesn't really matter that much. I just think the way people seem to interpret the effect of relative age on development is often poor, and it's become a weird pet peeve for me.

 

[snipes]

Are there people that would draft 2019 Hughes over 2020 Lafreniere?

Sure. But they’re what I like to call wrong.

 

[TimeZone]

Ekblad in the same tier as a Hart trophy winner?

His entire post was terrible. He had the leading even strength goal scorer since he entered the league multiple tiers behind Dahlin.

Anyways, had the pleasure of watching this kid live a few times last Season. Unfortunately he only plays here once this Season, and not until February. I get prime Marian Hossa vibes from this kid. If he reaches his potential, he'll be even better. A special talent who I can't wait to watch in the world Juniors and live again.

 

[Dominance]

9+20 in 11, now.

 

[keppel146]

His entire post was terrible. He had the leading even strength goal scorer since he entered the league multiple tiers behind Dahlin.

Anyways, had the pleasure of watching this kid live a few times last Season. Unfortunately he only plays here once this Season, and not until February. I get prime Marian Hossa vibes from this kid. If he reaches his potential, he'll be even better. A special talent who I can't wait to watch in the world Juniors and live again.

Are you sure Hossa is an appropriate comparable? Big Hoss was a horse.