Expectations for Ilya Samsonov

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Last season in 42 games he went 27-10-5, he had a GAA of 2.30 and a save% of 919, Samsonov had a strong regular season,the playoffs are a bit of a different story, despite the fact that he won a round he also allowed 3+ goals in 6 of the 8 games he finished.

He simply wasn't very good.

So we have a tale of 2 goaltenders one that was very good in the regular and one that got carried by his offense to a series win and again allowed 3+ goals in 6 of the 8 games he finished.

In terms of the regular season I see no reason why he can't repeat his performance.

The team he has in front of him to start this coming season is better than the one he had to start last season so If he can get to say 55 games I see no reason he can't put up 35+ wins and if he wants to get that #1 goalie money he's got to get to that 55 game mark.

Playoff Samsonov is where I'm more concerned We need Regular season Samsonov in the playoffs.

I expect a better regular season than he had last year but I want to see regular season Samsonov in the playoffs.

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[Fogelhund]

My expectation is that people will learn to spell his first name correctly!!

But seriously, Ilya will be the number 2 goalie before the end of the season.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

My expectation is that people will learn to spell his first name correctly!!

But seriously, Ilya will be the number 2 goalie before the end of the season.

I kind of doubt it but if that happens that's a good thing, it means Woll is a stud.

 

[ACC1224]

He’s either undisputed #1 by seasons end or he’s gone

 

[ZEBROA]

Backup is the expectation...

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

So far people seem to think Woll is taking over as #1 by seasons end, as great as that would be would be I don't see it.

I think Samsonov can repeat his regular season performance and if he does then for Woll to tale over he'd have to put up probably a GAA of about 2.00 and a save% pushing 930.

If Samsonov repeats last seasons regular season performance he's going to have a GAA of about 2.25-2.30

and his save% is going to be 919-924.

I think Samsonov can repeat his regular season performance.

So if you think Woll can steal Samsonov job you have to believe he can put up a GAA of about 2.00 and a save% pushing 930 for an extended period of time.

I hope you Guys are right because that would be awesome.

 

[Mugzy97]

There’s no way Woll should be thrust into starter role. We’ve got Samsonov as the starter and Woll is the backup. Martin Jones is the swing guy in case of injury or something. I’d say this is not likely to change this season.

My expectation for Samsonov is to put his best foot forth for the starter role and improve on last season, or at least maintain similar numbers over more games.

 

[Cams]

As much as this is an important season for Samsonov and the Leafs, it is also as much for Woll. He was fantastic last year, but again it was a limited sample size. He seemed cool under the pressure, and certainly not out of place.

Ideally, IMO, the perfect scenario between the pipes is that Samsonov has similar numbers to last year, and plays maybe 60-65% of the games with Woll playing the rest. If he can put up similar numbers as well, how can this play out any better....they will have done their job

re: playoffs last year - sure Samsonov's numbers declined steeply, but so did Vasilevsky....he wasn't the reason they lost of Florida (not saying anyone is saying this by the way). It would be nice to have Samsonov or Woll to get on one of those runs where they are by the way they are playing, getting into the heads of the opponent by just playing their game.

 

[Nineteen67]

If there are no injuries at goal he’ll have to play between 45-50 games.

Goaltending, like most areas on this team, will have to exceed expectations if they’re to make the conference finals.

 

[ShaneFalco]

He’s either undisputed #1 by seasons end or he’s gone

Yeah pretty much this

 

[HockeyVirus]

I am hoping he can start 45 games with a .915 sv%.

I expect him to start 40 games with .910sv%

 

[weems]

He was very good last season and ranked especially well in save % from high danger and medium danger spots.

Amongst goalies that played 40+ games

High Danger unblocked shot attempt Save %

1. Ilya Sorokin 0.818
2. Ilya Samsonov 0.795
3. MA Fluery 0.788

Medium Danger unblocked shot attempt Save %

1. Ilya Samsonov 0.927
2. Linus Ullmark 0.917
3. Igor Shersterkin 0.913

With his play last season and first round pick pedigree, I'd expect him to be a consistent top 10 goalie moving forward with true franchise #1 upside if best case scenario happens.

 

[Buds17]

Woll has performed well while not having played particularly often. Meanwhile, Jones has recently played often enough while not having always performed particularly well. I'd at least expect to see a motivated Samsonov as he approaches pending UFA status.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I am hoping he can start 45 games with a .915 sv%.

I expect him to start 40 games with .910sv%

Wow you have LOW expectations

 

[HockeyVirus]

Wow you have LOW expectations

How is that low? Last year the NHL average sv% was .905 or around there. He would solidly be a top end starter if he put up a .915 with 45 games. He would be middle of the pack starter with .910

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

How is that low? Last year the NHL average sv% was .905 or around there. He would solidly be a top end starter if he put up a .915 with 45 games. He would be middle of the pack starter with .910

He played 42 games last year, I don't think 45 games would be enough, if he's truly a #1 he's got to play closer to 55.

Also he had a 919 save% last year, he's got a better opening night roster this year than he did last year if he should be able to maintain that level of play.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

The expectations of him are likely not to match reality, unfortunately.

I'm saying that as someone who is bearish/pessimistic about him. I just don't think he is the solution in net. And for a team that has been prime to be a Stanley Cup contender, they can't afford another Andersen and Campbell tending the nets.

 

[Mess]

I'm visualizing a tandem fairly even split this year (healthy permitting) that both Sammy and Woll to each play roughly 1/2 the games.

I wouldn't be surprised if this was the last year of Sammy in TO because next year with Matthews and Nylander's new contracts & JT and Marner in their last year all hitting the same 2024-25 cap at once there will be no cap space to give Samsonov a big raise to keep him, in a shared situation.

 

[HockeyVirus]

He played 42 games last year, I don't think 45 games would be enough, if he's truly a #1 he's got to play closer to 55.

Also he had a 919 save% last year, he's got a better opening night roster this year than he did last year if he should be able to maintain that level of play.

Well this year we have Woll and not a Murray who can't play. I expect Woll to get games, at least 25-30.

I am of the belief there is no reason to run your starting goalie into the ground unless you need to.

The expectations of him are likely not to match reality, unfortunately.

I'm saying that as someone who is bearish/pessimistic about him. I just don't think he is the solution in net. And for a team that has been prime to be a Stanley Cup contender, they can't afford another Andersen and Campbell tending the nets.

I have no idea what people watched last year because Samsonov was excellent. Like are they basing it off of a few games in the Panthers series where he was so hurt he couldn't lift his arm over his head? Because he was top 10 in sv%, he was top of the league in high danger sv%, and he played excellent when we needed him against Tampa's elite offense something neither of those goalies could do is give us a save when we needed one.(and he was hurt during the series as well)

 

[PROUD PAPA]

I expect similar results to last season. This is his opportunity to establish himself as a starter and cash in as UFA next summer. He should be as motivated as anyone else on our roster and will have Woll breathing down his neck as well.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

The perception of Samsonov within this fan base is so fascinating to me. The man is dropped by Washington, thankfully chooses Toronto to try and get his career back on track after our former GM made a ridiculous trade for a declining and injury prone goalie, has a season that sees him Top 10 in save percentage and GAA and statistically was one of the best goalies at stopping HDC, then outduels one of the best goalies of this era en route to backstopping us to our first series win in nearly 20 years.

Yet a good chunk of fans view him as if he’s chopped liver and are very quick to anoint a guy with 11 career appearances (15 if you count playoff games) as our real starter. I don’t get it. You’d think a guy with first round pedigree, the numbers he put up, and doing something no goalie since Belfour has done here would garner some respect but a lot of people apparently couldn’t care less?

I get his numbers in the playoffs were well below stellar but the guy was clearly dealing with an injury. Not to mention that in such a small sample size goaltending numbers can be inflated either way. I don’t know if Sammy will be here beyond this season but I think writing him off as “not the solution” is very premature.

 

[Fogelhund]

Just to speak to a few comments here... I've been confident in Woll's ability for a couple of years now. I don't think the Leafs should, or will thrust Woll into becoming Number one, but I think his performance over the season, will earn him that spot. I believe that Samsonov will be pretty good too, but Woll will just be better. Samsonov will likely get 2/3 of the games early on, and as the season progresses, Woll will get more and more games, until he earns and steals the spot. It will probably be closer to 50:50 by seasons end, but Samsonov will have played more earlier on.

Woll was 0.932, 2.16 GAA last year... limited numbers yes... but it wouldn't shock me if he continued this play. ..

Hoping Samsonov can repeat 0.919-.920 and 2.33.... We'd have a strong tandem under these circumstances.

 

[Da Cool Rula]

The perception of Samsonov within this fan base is so fascinating to me. The man is dropped by Washington, thankfully chooses Toronto to try and get his career back on track after our former GM made a ridiculous trade for a declining and injury prone goalie, has a season that sees him Top 10 in save percentage and GAA and statistically was one of the best goalies at stopping HDC, then outduels one of the best goalies of this era en route to backstopping us to our first series win in nearly 20 years.

Yet a good chunk of fans view him as if he’s chopped liver and are very quick to anoint a guy with 11 career appearances (15 if you count playoff games) as our real starter. I don’t get it. You’d think a guy with first round pedigree, the numbers he put up, and doing something no goalie since Belfour has done here would garner some respect but a lot of people apparently couldn’t care less?

I get his numbers in the playoffs were well below stellar but the guy was clearly dealing with an injury. Not to mention that in such a small sample size goaltending numbers can be inflated either way. I don’t know if Sammy will be here beyond this season but I think writing him off as “not the solution” is very premature.

Prove it in the playoffs & I’ll be happy

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Just to speak to a few comments here... I've been confident in Woll's ability for a couple of years now. I don't think the Leafs should, or will thrust Woll into becoming Number one, but I think his performance over the season, will earn him that spot. I believe that Samsonov will be pretty good too, but Woll will just be better. Samsonov will likely get 2/3 of the games early on, and as the season progresses, Woll will get more and more games, until he earns and steals the spot. It will probably be closer to 50:50 by seasons end, but Samsonov will have played more earlier on.

Woll was 0.932, 2.16 GAA last year... limited numbers yes... but it wouldn't shock me if he continued this play. ..

Hoping Samsonov can repeat 0.919-.920 and 2.33.... We'd have a strong tandem under these circumstances.

I hope you are right cause if we got Samsonov at say 922 and Woll at 930 that's a hell of a tandem

 

[Stephen]

The perception of Samsonov within this fan base is so fascinating to me. The man is dropped by Washington, thankfully chooses Toronto to try and get his career back on track after our former GM made a ridiculous trade for a declining and injury prone goalie, has a season that sees him Top 10 in save percentage and GAA and statistically was one of the best goalies at stopping HDC, then outduels one of the best goalies of this era en route to backstopping us to our first series win in nearly 20 years.

Yet a good chunk of fans view him as if he’s chopped liver and are very quick to anoint a guy with 11 career appearances (15 if you count playoff games) as our real starter. I don’t get it. You’d think a guy with first round pedigree, the numbers he put up, and doing something no goalie since Belfour has done here would garner some respect but a lot of people apparently couldn’t care less?

I get his numbers in the playoffs were well below stellar but the guy was clearly dealing with an injury. Not to mention that in such a small sample size goaltending numbers can be inflated either way. I don’t know if Sammy will be here beyond this season but I think writing him off as “not the solution” is very premature.

I think the fanbase kind of puts him in a similar category to Jack Campbell, who was also kind of a 1st round pick reclamation project, high pedigree but high volatility, some structural flaws and a bit of an acrobatic style. Personality-wise, he also comes across as a bit of a quirky guy. But I agree, there's a lot there that could suggest he is a long term solution. Ultimately, his upside is still very high.

Woll's stock has gone up in his limited performance with the Leafs, but I think people like the control and structure and calmness in his demeanor. There's also good size, quiet athleticism and structure to his game. So he could have some real upside too. But we also have to remember his development curve has been very gradual until last year's breakout, and if development isn't always linear, we can't be sure he'll just be better than last year. And he's played less than James Reimer on that rookie run. So he's really not seen that many NHL situations. Temper expectations.