Expansion to 36, which city is number 36?

[No Fun Shogun]

Yeah, OKC is in the same place as those cities, as they're all mid-sized markets (rounding up on a few) that haven't expressed interest in the NHL. But that was exactly the case for Salt Lake City two years ago.

Money talks, and a billion dollars talks very loudly.

If Bettman could snap his figures and get nine figure offers for teams in markets of his choice, he'd of course pick Houston and Atlanta. But there's a practical aspect to recognize that they have a high asking price to weed out less interested potential bidders with shallower pockets. Paying that kind of cash seems to be the key to entry now.

 

[Tawnos]

Yeah, OKC is in the same place as those cities, as they're all mid-sized markets (rounding up on a few) that haven't expressed interest in the NHL. But that was exactly the case for Salt Lake City two years ago.

Money talks, and a billion dollars talks very loudly.

Salt Lake City is a mid-sized market and was the case two years ago. Those others are not and were not. These markets are not in the same tier as SLC.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

Salt Lake City is a mid-sized market and was the case two years ago. Those others are not and were not. These markets are not in the same tier as SLC.

Salt Lake City's metro area is smaller than OKC's, Jacksonville's, and Hampton Road's (and much more so including the relatively nearbv Richmond as a source of partial fandom). I know that that's not all to the equation, especially as physical sizes vart greatly, but Salt Lake City isn't really a tier above the likes mentioned in terms of possible depth of the population base to draw from. Maybe a better market due to more of a winter sports lineage, but the point is still the same that if were talking in 2022 or 2020, they'd all have gotten the same handwaiving treatment as expansion candidates.

 

[Tawnos]

Salt Lake City's metro area is smaller than OKC's, Jacksonville's, and Hampton Road's (and much more so including the relatively nearbv Richmond as a source of partial fandom). I know that that's not all to the equation, especially as physical sizes vart greatly, but Salt Lake City isn't really a tier above the likes mentioned in terms of possible depth of the population base to draw from. Maybe a better market due to more of a winter sports lineage, but the point is still the same that if were talking in 2022 or 2020, they'd all have gotten the same handwaiving treatment as expansion candidates.

I literally debunked that myth about the SLC metro size two posts ago.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

Counting the whole CSA does give an edge to SLC, but it also encompasses a significantly larger and elongated area as well, which makes drawing in fans more difficut, too. The area's tall and narrow footprint was mentioned in conversations past as a likely barrier for reliable fan draws, too.

But the point is that when speaking CSAs or MSAs however far out you want to draw from, the cities mostly mentioned are all far closer to each other than the mega markets that obviously get the most attention. I don't see Utah getting a team as a barrier to entry for slightly larger, similarly-sized, or slightly smaller markets, but rather that whole ballpark is fair game if the right person with a big enough bank account reaches out to the NHL.

 

[Tawnos]

Counting the whole CSA does give an edge to SLC, but it also encompasses a significantly larger and elongated area as well, which makes drawing in fans more difficut, too. The area's tall and narrow footprint was mentioned in conversations past as a likely barrier for reliable fan draws, too.

But the point is that when speaking CSAs or MSAs however far out you want to draw from, the cities mostly mentioned are all far closer to each other than the mega markets that obviously get the most attention. I don't see Utah getting a team as a barrier to entry for slightly larger, similarly-sized, or slightly smaller markets, but rather that whole ballpark is fair game if the right person with a big enough bank account reaches out to the NHL.

Counting the whole CSA in SLCs case is counting the whole market and not spinning it to look smaller than it is in reality. No one giving an honest and informed look at the Hurricanes' market looks at it as being 1.5 million people and we shouldn't be doing that to SLC.

This is my point though. OKC is not "slightly smaller" than SLC... it's significantly smaller. You're talking about the difference between assessing a market similar in size to St Louis or San Antonio and a market similar in size to Grand Rapids or Greenville, SC. They're just different tiers of cities.

 

[Golden_Jet]

And the most famous Canadian athlete.

McDavid or Summer McIntosh play basketball.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

Those are valid reasonings, and you are good to point out the draw for Utah will extend beyond its technical core metro area, but the point that I would make that I think still stands is that I don't think OKC is so small that the NHL would be disinterested assuming a whale floated in and wrote a check. We all wtf'd when Bettman highlighted the even smaller Omaha, but if that's worth mentioning, then in a hypothetical I think OKC is worth mentioning, too, especially in reference originally to someone asking why they weren't getting attention.


But to be clear, we've had more of a conversation on this than I think Bennett has. I am not expecting Bennett to suddenly pop up and express interest any time in the conceivable future, though highlighting that prior to Smith buying the Jazz the same point could be brought up regarding Utah's chances at getting a team, too. Or heck, travel back in time twenty years and suggest to anyone that a team would voluntarily move from Seattle to OKC, you'd onky get dumbfounded looks in response.

 

[TheLegend]

Physically speaking, your SLC number is WAY off. For reasons that aren't clear, the Census Bureau does not include Provo and Ogden in the Salt Lake City MSA. Those add 1.4 million people to the Salt Lake MSA. It's similar to how the Durham MSA is in reality part of the same metro area as the Raleigh one. It likely has something to do with commuting patterns, but some parts of the counties that are located in the Provo and Ogden MSAs are more likely to commute into SLC. Since MSA doesn't break up counties, they end up in the wrong place. The SLC CSA, which has more to do with the "gravitational center" of a region, has 2.8m people in it and is the 22nd largest in the country. OKCs CSA, by comparison, has 1.5 million.

More specifically, as of 2020 there were 2,665,854 people in the census tracts that are in the SLC home territory. There were 1,797,459 people in OKCs. That's closer than me saying it was half the size (a slight exaggeration based on the CSA numbers), SLC is still 50% bigger than OKC is. It's not insignificant. In terms of population, SLC is still a medium sized market and OKC is still a small one.

The important thing with these statistics is that, once informed of the reality of a market, we use the same numbers to compare. Whether that's CSA or MSA or DMA or the home territory defined by the NHL.

So…. You are really defining a media market.

DMA wise.
SLC is 29th
OKC is 46th

 

[Tawnos]

So…. You are really defining a media market.

DMA wise.
SLC is 29th
OKC is 46th

No, I really wasn’t.

But if we are using DMA, it’s 27th and 47th this year. I’m not going to pay for the demos from Nielsen and only found last years household counts. SLC had 1.15m households and OKC had 743k. 55% higher for SLC. I’m sure it’s similar this year.

 

[carjackmalone]

Salt Lake City got the relocation for two reasons

Owner with Deep Pockets willing to pay

And a new Taxpayer funded arena on the way for SLC WINTER OLYMPIC HOSTING status

 

[Yukon Joe]

Salt Lake City got the relocation for two reasons

Owner with Deep Pockets willing to pay

And a new Taxpayer funded arena on the way for SLC WINTER OLYMPIC HOSTING status

You see - I think that reason B:, the Taxpayer funded arena, helps to explain A: Owner willing to pay.

All the NHL cared about was A: Owner willing to pay.

 

[TheLegend]

Salt Lake City got the relocation for two reasons

Owner with Deep Pockets willing to pay

And a new Taxpayer funded arena on the way for SLC WINTER OLYMPIC HOSTING status

They were always going to get a franchise regardless.

The situation with Arizona only sped their timeline up by about 3-4 years.

 

[aqib]

If Bennett starts expressing interest in the NHL, OKC would probably get the NHL's attention. But until that hypothetical, they're not mentioned due to it being small and seemingly no interested owners.

OKC (headed by Bennett) applied for an expansion team in the 1998 expansion. They just wanted a major league team, they didn't care which sport. They grabbed the NBA because thats what was available to them. I recall reading that the mayor said he didn't think they could support two major winter sports teams. Granted that was years ago and the city has grown but it would still be tough especially when you add to major college football programs in the state.

 

[ponder719]

All the NHL cared about was A: Owner willing to pay.

I absolutely disagree with this bit. They very much cared about B, in the context of needing to know the owner was not only prepared to pay, but was prepared to leverage the market to help fund the growth of the franchise. They've had some experience in the past with owners who have set the relationship with their city on fire, and that invites the kind of instability that reflects poorly on the entire league (and has reverberations into the league's relationship with the NHLPA, which doesn't help at CBA negotiation time.)

In the event of absolute emergency, the league might be willing to pull the ripcord of "find someone with a ton of money and an interest in the league, and figure ish out from there", but even then, if they have even a modicum of power to make a choice, they'll choose the location with the best alignment of wealth, market, and arena over a place that is strong in one and weak in the others.

 

[dj4aces]

They were always going to get a franchise regardless.

The situation with Arizona only sped their timeline up by about 3-4 years.

That's my thought too. Furthermore, I think the league preferred relocation for Utah instead of expansion anyway.

I absolutely disagree with this bit. They very much cared about B, in the context of needing to know the owner was not only prepared to pay, but was prepared to leverage the market to help fund the growth of the franchise. They've had some experience in the past with owners who have set the relationship with their city on fire, and that invites the kind of instability that reflects poorly on the entire league (and has reverberations into the league's relationship with the NHLPA, which doesn't help at CBA negotiation time.)

I don't think the NHL really cares how an owner gets a building, so long as they have a place to play. The only people who truly care about who funds a building would be the taxpayers in said markets.

 

[jigglysquishy]

CSAs are a better benchmark for "media market" size.

SLC is at 2.8 million and is the 22nd largest in the US.
OKC is 1.5 million and is 39th largest in the US.

If you're looking at underserved US markets, it really is a Houston (7.7 million and 8th in size), Atlanta, (7.2 million and 10th in size), and Portland (3.3 million and 20th in size) conversation.

If you're looking at CSA equivalents for Canada, both Quebec City and Winnipeg are around 1.0 million.

Going to OKC at 1.5 million would be a big mistake.

 

[Bjorn Le]

OKC could've worked as a relocation spot for Arizona had it been OKC with the right billionaire and the right arena plans, but it's certainly not going to be of much interest to the NHL for expansion given the price tag will dissuade anyone from being interested. The same is true for any number of smaller market U.S. cities sometimes presented as potential NHL spots: Omaha, Louisville, Hampton Roads, etc.

The NHL needs to get a second team in Texas though. If Houston doesn't work (the obvious first choice), Austin should be next. It has a booming population with immigration from all over the U.S., it's highly-educated, and has a high-tech/professional based economy. If the NHL can be the first Big 4 team there, it'll be another Southern success story. If I were the NHL, I would be putting out feelers for persons who could have interest in an NHL team and have the skills to work through the political process of getting an 18,000 seat arena built.

 

[patnyrnyg]

So with the league technically at 33 franchises, and owners liking big expansion fee dollars, it is pretty likely we see expansion at some point in the next few years.

On top of that the three biggest metro areas in Canada and the US that don't have an active team are Atlanta, Houston, and Phoenix.

Phoenix obviously still has their inactive franchise, Atlanta has an interested ownership group with a potentially new building, and while there hasn't been as much smoke around Houston they do have an arena and potential owner.

Those three cities fit nicely into 3 of the 4 divisions the NHL has. But that leaves the question, who becomes the 9th team in the Atlantic? There aren't a whole lot of candidates, and they each have some question marks around them.

Quebec is the obvious answer for many. But who owns the team? Is the NHL still hesitant to go back? There isn't much potential for growth in the market either.

Hamilton/Toronto 2 is another option, but do Toronto and/or Buffalo need a dump truck of money to give up territory rights?

Hartford would be cool. But where do they play? Who owns the team? Is the city big enough and does it have the corporate dollars to support the team?

If GTA 2 doesn't work, what about Montreal 2? They had 2 teams once before, and the metro population is more than twice the size of many other NHL markets.

Maybe Atlanta joins the Florida teams in the Atlantic, but then where does team 36 pop up in the Metro?

Baltimore seems like it is Caps territory.

Is Cleaveland or Cincinnati an option?

Louisville isn't huge, but wouldn't be the smallest metro area. Maybe the NHL would like being the first Big 4 league in the market like they were with Vegas.

Quebec- if league was interested they would be there

hamilton, toronto 1- same as quebec

hartford- no. arena is no longer nhl standard. Sharing market with Rangers and Bruins.

Montreal 2- maybe pre-WW2. not anymore

Atlanta- rumors it is a possibility. group with money interested.

Baltimore- no chance

cleveland or cincy? no.

Louisville? never heard anyone mention them.

I don't see how it is technically 33. A lot has to happen for Phoenix to come back into the mix.

 

[KevFu]

Quebec- if league was interested they would be there

hamilton, toronto 1- same as quebec

If the league was interested in adding another team in Southern Ontario, they would be there already? HAHAHAHA.

The fact is, the Leafs have territorial rights and that's a deal breaker. Absent any kind of league leverage, the Leafs will NEVER agree to a number to waive those rights. Which makes the cost for a would-be owner in Hamilton or GTA astronomical, so no one can/will do it.


If only there was some kind of movement on Leafs ownership where the league had to approve a change of ownership, and could force the Leafs to accept a reasonable number for a second Toronto team and waive the right to Hamilton...

 

[Melrose Munch]

There's an element of civic pride in having a major league sports team. If you live in a smaller city, being able to say "yes, we're not New York or LA, but we can show up and beat the Kings or the Rangers on any given day" has value; it puts you on a different level in the cultural consciousness than, say, Des Moines or Albuquerque. However, you know you're not that far away from being relegated to that level if you don't show up for your team, so it becomes that much more important to fight to keep them, using whatever tools are at your disposal. Set aside Austin, which has to overcome its proximity to Dallas and San Antonio, and Fort Worth, which is Dallas for all intents and purposes, and the next largest city I can find in the US without a major pro sports team is El Paso, which (city pop only) is larger than Boston. When I think of Boston, I have a pretty well-rounded image of the place, and sports identity is a significant part of that. When I think of El Paso, I get Old El Paso salsa and Eddie Guerrero's Lasso from El Paso, and nothing at all about the location itself, because I don't get any of the tie-in info from my sports fandom.

I think that's a large part of what makes smaller cities such rabid sports fans (and, frankly, what makes Philly such a rabid sports town, because for all this city has a ton to offer, we have a massive inferiority complex due to the size, prominence, and proximity of NYC, but that's a longer and more in-depth rant than just the sports thing); it's something to differentiate you from places that otherwise are overlooked, and to keep you from being overlooked yourself.

While the psyche thing is true, I've never bought into it. St. Louis lost their NFL and they still exist.

 

[rojac]

While the psyche thing is true, I've never bought into it. St. Louis lost their NFL and they still exist.

St. Louis has lost 2 NFL teams, 1 MLB team, 1 NBA team, and 1 NHL team. And they almost lost a second NHL team. They're used to losing teams.

 

[aqib]

While the psyche thing is true, I've never bought into it. St. Louis lost their NFL and they still exist.

Exist yeah but it's probably a blow on some level especially seeing them get good in LA.

St. Louis has lost 2 NFL teams, 1 MLB team, 1 NBA team, and 1 NHL team. And they almost lost a second NHL team. They're used to losing teams.

Yeah I don't think anyone cares about the St Louis Browns or whatever that first NHL team was called.

 

[rojac]

If the league was interested in adding another team in Southern Ontario, they would be there already? HAHAHAHA.

The fact is, the Leafs have territorial rights and that's a deal breaker. Absent any kind of league leverage, the Leafs will NEVER agree to a number to waive those rights. Which makes the cost for a would-be owner in Hamilton or GTA astronomical, so no one can/will do it.


If only there was some kind of movement on Leafs ownership where the league had to approve a change of ownership, and could force the Leafs to accept a reasonable number for a second Toronto team and waive the right to Hamilton...

So, let's say the other leagues approve it and the NHL doesn't because Rogers says no to the ultimatum. Do they rework the deal so that Bell sells everything but their share of the Leafs?

 

[patnyrnyg]

If the league was interested in adding another team in Southern Ontario, they would be there already? HAHAHAHA.

The fact is, the Leafs have territorial rights and that's a deal breaker. Absent any kind of league leverage, the Leafs will NEVER agree to a number to waive those rights. Which makes the cost for a would-be owner in Hamilton or GTA astronomical, so no one can/will do it.


If only there was some kind of movement on Leafs ownership where the league had to approve a change of ownership, and could force the Leafs to accept a reasonable number for a second Toronto team and waive the right to Hamilton...

I disagree. I do not think the league wants a 2nd team in toront/southern ontario. They want to expand into what they see as an untapped market.