Expansion to 36, which city is number 36?

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aqib

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There's a reason though why the league cancelled the neutral-site games pretty quickly after only 2 years.

People tend to be excited to see their team, which is usually their home team. If you bring two random teams to town it's actually kind of hard to sell tickets. Saskatoon was mentioned. I mean yes, if you bring in a Winnipeg vs Edmonton game that'd sell out no problem - but it would do the same in either Winnipeg or Edmonton. If you suddenly bring in Utah vs San Jose - it's going to be really hard to sell tickets.

There aren't necessarily that many arenas suitable to NHL games out there. Do you think you could find 32 venues? If so that means each venue gets two games per year.

A one-off event will almost always do well. People like novelty. I'm sure the NFL game in Brazil today will do incredibly well. NHL "global series" games do well as one-offs.

But if you go to it too often, it loses the novelty, but it's still not "your" team coming. It's the "Bills to Toronto" all over again - once they were scheduling 2-4 games per year they had trouble selling tickets.
The problem with Bills in Toronto is that Buffalo is only 2 hours away from Toronto and for a lot of the Bills fan base it was the same distance to Buffalo as it is to downtown Toronto and the tickets were like 4x the price of a Bills game. Add to that there are a number of teams within a short drive of Toronto.

I think the neutral site games more along the lines of the NFL in London. They sell out because its NFL football not because it features particular teams. The Browns-Vikings got over 74K when the Browns were coming off 1-15 season and were in the midst of going 0-16.

I don't think you need 32 venues but a handful that host mulitple games and a few one offs. We agree Saskatoon can't sustain an NHL team but if you had 4 games a year there it would sell out. Same with QC. Maybe you put 2 in KC.
 

ponder719

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I don't think you need 32 venues but a handful that host mulitple games and a few one offs. We agree Saskatoon can't sustain an NHL team but if you had 4 games a year there it would sell out. Same with QC. Maybe you put 2 in KC.

This would probably be the right way to go about it, though I would do 16 venues; 4 neutral zone sites for each division each year, maybe 3 in North America and 1 international. That way, you get some games in Europe, some in prospective expansion cities, and some in cities that just can't support a full NHL schedule, but would be hyped to have top flight hockey a couple times a year.

Independent of that, I'd love to see each NHL/AHL/ECHL organization do swap games every year; using the Flyers as an example, have them host one game in Allentown and one in Reading every year, have the Phantoms play one in Philly and one in Reading, and have the Royals play one in Allentown and one in Philly, so fans at all levels of the organization have a shot at seeing the other teams up and down the system.
 

TheLegend

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Vegas Golden Knights were given an expansion franchise in 2016. The cost was $500 million, and league revenues were $4.1 billion.

In 2024 Arizona moved to Utah. The cost to Ryan Smith was $1.2 billion, and league revenues were $6.43 billion.

So - franchise cost increased 140%, whereas league revenues increased 63%.

I think this phenomenon is going on in all sports - franchise values are increasing at a much faster rate than the underlying economics of the sport. So this is where I just disagree with you. The league could barely care less whether they think they'll earn an extra $50 million in overall revenue by having a team in Atlanta over Houston, or whatever. If the NHL was so concerned about league-wide revenue they never would have allowed the Coyotes to play in Mullett arena.

There biggest concern is franchise value, which is 100% correlated with what people are willing to pay for a franchise.

Except.... Alex Meruelo was well into the negotiations with Tempe to build a new arena when they moved to Mullett. League had to give that Tempe effort a chance. Everything indicates that once that Tempe vote failed, that's when the NHL began looking at moving the team out in spite of Meruelo's pivot to looking for another site.
 

aqib

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Except.... Alex Meruelo was well into the negotiations with Tempe to build a new arena when they moved to Mullett. League had to give that Tempe effort a chance. Everything indicates that once that Tempe vote failed, that's when the NHL began looking at moving the team out in spite of Meruelo's pivot to looking for another site.
Why did it take so long for them to start the process with Utah? If they had done things earlier Utah could have done phase one of their renovation this off-season.
 

TheLegend

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Why did it take so long for them to start the process with Utah? If they had done things earlier Utah could have done phase one of their renovation this off-season.

IIRC…. Ryan Smith had first approached Gary Bettman about expansion some two years prior to anyone knowing they were interested. I don’t think Smith was planning to have a team until 2028 or so.

When the TED vote failed, that’s when I think Bettman approached Smith with the idea they could get a team much sooner.

You have to admit they have put a lot of things together in a relatively short time.
 
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aqib

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IIRC…. Ryan Smith had first approached Gary Bettman about expansion some two years prior to anyone knowing they were interested. I don’t think Smith was planning to have a team until 2028 or so.

When the TED vote failed, that’s when I think Bettman approached Smith with the idea they could get a team much sooner.

You have to admit they have put a lot of things together in a relatively short time.
The Tempe arena vote failed in May of last year. IF we believe Bettman's story that talks with Utah started in March that means he waited for 10 months. The move of the original Jets to Arizona was announced in like December of 1995. Given how fast Utah moved to do the arena deal if they had worked on a similar timeline they would have started on phase 1 this year.
 

TheLegend

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The Tempe arena vote failed in May of last year. IF we believe Bettman's story that talks with Utah started in March that means he waited for 10 months. The move of the original Jets to Arizona was announced in like December of 1995. Given how fast Utah moved to do the arena deal if they had worked on a similar timeline they would have started on phase 1 this year.
Except Smith was proposing an entirely different project away from downtown SLC at the outset. He wasn’t even looking at renovating Delta Center.

They moved pretty fast if you take a look at it from a distance.
 

aqib

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Except Smith was proposing an entirely different project away from downtown SLC at the outset. He wasn’t even looking at renovating Delta Center.

They moved pretty fast if you take a look at it from a distance.
True but the process could have started a lot sooner. The move TO Phoenix was announced in December of 1995. So I am wondering if the NHL pivoted to relocation after the Tempe vote why did they wait so long to start talking to other cities.
 

dj4aces

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The Tempe arena vote failed in May of last year. IF we believe Bettman's story that talks with Utah started in March that means he waited for 10 months. The move of the original Jets to Arizona was announced in like December of 1995. Given how fast Utah moved to do the arena deal if they had worked on a similar timeline they would have started on phase 1 this year.
While many have their own conspiracies about the timing of Smith's press release to the league asking for them to open the expansion process, you have to admit that it adds some credibility to Bettman's public statement about having not talked to Smith about receiving the Coyotes until March. Whether one believes it or not is another matter altogether.
 

aqib

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While many have their own conspiracies about the timing of Smith's press release to the league asking for them to open the expansion process, you have to admit that it adds some credibility to Bettman's public statement about having not talked to Smith about receiving the Coyotes until March. Whether one believes it or not is another matter altogether.
Yeah I said at the time when Smith issued the press release asking for an expansion team, it had to be cleared by Bettman. Bettman said at the press conferences that it wasn't and the conversations began later. However, we know Bettman doesn't tell the truth about these things.
 
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Tawnos

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Vegas Golden Knights were given an expansion franchise in 2016. The cost was $500 million, and league revenues were $4.1 billion.

In 2024 Arizona moved to Utah. The cost to Ryan Smith was $1.2 billion, and league revenues were $6.43 billion.

So - franchise cost increased 140%, whereas league revenues increased 63%.

I think this phenomenon is going on in all sports - franchise values are increasing at a much faster rate than the underlying economics of the sport. So this is where I just disagree with you. The league could barely care less whether they think they'll earn an extra $50 million in overall revenue by having a team in Atlanta over Houston, or whatever. If the NHL was so concerned about league-wide revenue they never would have allowed the Coyotes to play in Mullett arena.

There biggest concern is franchise value, which is 100% correlated with what people are willing to pay for a franchise.

Franchise values are tied to revenue growth, but that's not restricted to past growth. So while franchise value grew at a higher rate than revenues did, those purchase prices are locked in and revenues are still going to be growing. It's no different than when a business relocates after signing a 10-year lease. Even if it's higher than they'd really like in the first few years, they know that somewhere in years 5-7, they're going to be in amazing shape in relation to their rent.

If revenues stayed flat, it would probably take Smith somewhere between 20 and 30 years to fully recoup the purchase price. He's anticipating that it'll take less time than that, possibly significantly less, because those revenues will continue to grow.

In other words, I don't think you're right when you say that franchise values are increasing faster than underlying economics. I think they're increasing in anticipation of where they believe those economics are headed. Are they right? I have some skepticism, personally. And that doesn't tie in the prestige issue, which is much harder to measure.

The Mullett point is funny to me, because it's super clear that the league valued the market over pretty much all other considerations. Because, as I said, market is king for the NHL in 2024.
 
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dj4aces

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Why isn’t Oklahoma City mentioned as a expansion candidate?fast growing city,wealthy tax base,decent arena.
Well, first they need owners who are interested in a franchise. I know nothing about the arena in OKC, but I'm gonna go out on a limb and say it's not NHL-ready and will require renovations to make it such.

It falls into the same category as San Diego, Kansas City, Portland, and Milwaukee. There might have been interest there at one time, or there may be new interest there, but no one is making waves there yet. That, really, is a big part of why I believe there's gonna be a ten year window between when 34 is announced and when 35 get announced. It gives prospective owners for those markets time to build a relationship with the league and move forward.
 

Yukon Joe

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Why isn’t Oklahoma City mentioned as a expansion candidate?fast growing city,wealthy tax base,decent arena.

Size. 1.4 Mil metro area is pretty small.

Southern market. Nuff said.

NBA OKC Thunder already present in the market.

And finally (I always come back to this point) - ownership. OKC Thunder are owned by Clay Bennett. I don't think there's been any association between Bennett and hockey. So unless OKC was going to build a second arena for an NHL franchise Bennett would need to be associated.
 

No Fun Shogun

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If Bennett starts expressing interest in the NHL, OKC would probably get the NHL's attention. But until that hypothetical, they're not mentioned due to it being small and seemingly no interested owners.
 

No Fun Shogun

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OKC is half the size of any existing dual NHL-NBA market. That’s it. If Bennett wants an NHL team, it would need to be elsewhere.

If Bennett writes Bettman a billion dollar check, OKC's probably getting an NHL team.

But, then again, I think you could say that about borderline any market.

The big ask is if anyone thinks that an NHL in a smaller market is worth it. A lot of eyes are going to be on how Utah fares money-wise for thst reason, I'm sure.
 

Sgt Schultz

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If Bennett writes Bettman a billion dollar check, OKC's probably getting an NHL team.

But, then again, I think you could say that about borderline any market.

The big ask is if anyone thinks that an NHL in a smaller market is worth it. A lot of eyes are going to be on how Utah fares money-wise for thst reason, I'm sure.
My skepticism on any expansion in the shorter term has been in large part how the Arizona soap opera ends now that it is in Utah. Having a franchise limping along does not exactly enhance the value of a new franchise, and I think they will want to prove that franchise is on solid footing before expanding any further. They don't want this to become a merry-go-round of new franchises coming in while existing ones are dying.

That also probably casts a shadow on the smaller market question, particularly where they would be competing with an NBA team. Maybe the answer is ultimately "it works here" but I doubt the league is in any mood to bet on that right now.

When I look at attendance numbers (which admittedly does not tell me the balance sheet of teams), I don't see anybody in immediate danger now that Arizona has moved. San Jose's numbers look bad, but I think that is a temporary thing that will turn once they become more competitive. There may be teams out there that are bleeding money, though, and as I said, just looking at attendance does not show me that.
 

No Fun Shogun

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The thing though is that if the NHL really wants to add 4+ more teams, at a certain point they're going to run out of big markets. NHL is well-poised with Houston, Atlanta, and now Phoenix all untapped, and there are loads of good-sized markets out there as well, too, like Kansas City, Portland, and San Diego, to name a few. Prior to two years ago, all of them would've been hoisted up as more likely to get or keep a team over Utah.

But then one dude with deep pockets changed the equation altogether, and instead of being maybe a very long-term candidate (I think I mentioned my belief way back when that Utah would be an intriguing option once the 2050s rolled around) they became the obvious next landing spot for an NHL team. And they somehow seem poised to hit the ground running in a single offseason, something that I previously posited as a good reason to keep QC in the league's back pocket as an emergency relocation option like Winnipeg with the mistaken belief that an American market would need more wind-up time.

And let's not forget, Bettman with a straight face name dropped Omaha as a city that had expressed interest in an NHL team recently. If Omaha is worth even mentioning in passing, OKC isn't that far-fetched if Bennett gets interested.

And the thing about smaller markets is that they per capita seem to cling much more tightly to their team or teams than larger markets with more distraction options. In the NBA, Utah, OKC, and Portland have all been frequently name-dropped as having rabid fanbases, and from that fosters local governments more eager to play ball with teams. That wasn't the case for the Yotes, who absolutely had fans but in a huge market were easy to get lost in the overall background noise and were as a result in less of a strong bargaining position to get anything they wanted from local governments.
 

joelef

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The thing though is that if the NHL really wants to add 4+ more teams, at a certain point they're going to run out of big markets. NHL is well-poised with Houston, Atlanta, and now Phoenix all untapped, and there are loads of good-sized markets out there as well, too, like Kansas City, Portland, and San Diego, to name a few. Prior to two years ago, all of them would've been hoisted up as more likely to get or keep a team over Utah.

But then one dude with deep pockets changed the equation altogether, and instead of being maybe a very long-term candidate (I think I mentioned my belief way back when that Utah would be an intriguing option once the 2050s rolled around) they became the obvious next landing spot for an NHL team. And they somehow seem poised to hit the ground running in a single offseason, something that I previously posited as a good reason to keep QC in the league's back pocket as an emergency relocation option like Winnipeg with the mistaken belief that an American market would need more wind-up time.

And let's not forget, Bettman with a straight face name dropped Omaha as a city that had expressed interest in an NHL team recently. If Omaha is worth even mentioning in passing, OKC isn't that far-fetched if Bennett gets interested.

And the thing about smaller markets is that they per capita seem to cling much more tightly to their team or teams than larger markets with more distraction options. In the NBA, Utah, OKC, and Portland have all been frequently name-dropped as having rabid fanbases, and from that fosters local governments more eager to play ball with teams. That wasn't the case for the Yotes, who absolutely had fans but in a huge market were easy to get lost in the overall background noise and were as a result in less of a strong bargaining position to get anything they wanted from local governments.
Mexico city
 

TheLegend

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OKC is half the size of any existing dual NHL-NBA market. That’s it. If Bennett wants an NHL team, it would need to be elsewhere.
Physically speaking...

OKC metro: 1.45 million
SLC metro: 1.25 million
(reminder that SLC is also looking to add MLB soon)

I think the physical size of a market is beginning to lose its status as an important measuring stick. It's the potential of the media market that is the key now, with the rising use of streaming.
 

ponder719

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And the thing about smaller markets is that they per capita seem to cling much more tightly to their team or teams than larger markets with more distraction options. In the NBA, Utah, OKC, and Portland have all been frequently name-dropped as having rabid fanbases, and from that fosters local governments more eager to play ball with teams. That wasn't the case for the Yotes, who absolutely had fans but in a huge market were easy to get lost in the overall background noise and were as a result in less of a strong bargaining position to get anything they wanted from local governments.

There's an element of civic pride in having a major league sports team. If you live in a smaller city, being able to say "yes, we're not New York or LA, but we can show up and beat the Kings or the Rangers on any given day" has value; it puts you on a different level in the cultural consciousness than, say, Des Moines or Albuquerque. However, you know you're not that far away from being relegated to that level if you don't show up for your team, so it becomes that much more important to fight to keep them, using whatever tools are at your disposal. Set aside Austin, which has to overcome its proximity to Dallas and San Antonio, and Fort Worth, which is Dallas for all intents and purposes, and the next largest city I can find in the US without a major pro sports team is El Paso, which (city pop only) is larger than Boston. When I think of Boston, I have a pretty well-rounded image of the place, and sports identity is a significant part of that. When I think of El Paso, I get Old El Paso salsa and Eddie Guerrero's Lasso from El Paso, and nothing at all about the location itself, because I don't get any of the tie-in info from my sports fandom.

I think that's a large part of what makes smaller cities such rabid sports fans (and, frankly, what makes Philly such a rabid sports town, because for all this city has a ton to offer, we have a massive inferiority complex due to the size, prominence, and proximity of NYC, but that's a longer and more in-depth rant than just the sports thing); it's something to differentiate you from places that otherwise are overlooked, and to keep you from being overlooked yourself.
 

Tawnos

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Physically speaking...

OKC metro: 1.45 million
SLC metro: 1.25 million
(reminder that SLC is also looking to add MLB soon)

I think the physical size of a market is beginning to lose its status as an important measuring stick. It's the potential of the media market that is the key now, with the rising use of streaming.

Physically speaking, your SLC number is WAY off. For reasons that aren't clear, the Census Bureau does not include Provo and Ogden in the Salt Lake City MSA. Those add 1.4 million people to the Salt Lake MSA. It's similar to how the Durham MSA is in reality part of the same metro area as the Raleigh one. It likely has something to do with commuting patterns, but some parts of the counties that are located in the Provo and Ogden MSAs are more likely to commute into SLC. Since MSA doesn't break up counties, they end up in the wrong place. The SLC CSA, which has more to do with the "gravitational center" of a region, has 2.8m people in it and is the 22nd largest in the country. OKCs CSA, by comparison, has 1.5 million.

More specifically, as of 2020 there were 2,665,854 people in the census tracts that are in the SLC home territory. There were 1,797,459 people in OKCs. That's closer than me saying it was half the size (a slight exaggeration based on the CSA numbers), SLC is still 50% bigger than OKC is. It's not insignificant. In terms of population, SLC is still a medium sized market and OKC is still a small one.

The important thing with these statistics is that, once informed of the reality of a market, we use the same numbers to compare. Whether that's CSA or MSA or DMA or the home territory defined by the NHL.

If Bennett writes Bettman a billion dollar check, OKC's probably getting an NHL team.

But, then again, I think you could say that about borderline any market.

The big ask is if anyone thinks that an NHL in a smaller market is worth it. A lot of eyes are going to be on how Utah fares money-wise for thst reason, I'm sure.

I really, really just disagree with this. So does Daly, as least publicly. The NHL doesn't need expansion, and they're only going to do it if they can be sold on a market increasing franchise values. They don't need to be sold on Atlanta or Houston doing that. And not Phoenix either. If they don't see OKC as a market that will help with that, they're not going there regardless of who is going to write them a $1B check. And I would be surprised if they did see OKC that way. If the Thunder didn't exist? Possibly.

Without the Thunder, OKC is in the same place in these conversations as Hampton Roads, Louisville, Richmond, and Jacksonville.
 
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