Expansion to 36, which city is number 36?

[voyageur]

Well, the Padres owner just died.

The thing about the Padres is that they are the PERFECT example of what we talk about with "market saturation" for teams.

San Diego had the Padres and the Chargers. The Chargers left for LA. The Padres revenues skyrocketed. Because Chargers STH now bought more Padres tickets, and single-game, it's only the Padres.

But also corporate dollars: The advertisers, there's less total sports ad space in San Diego, so the Padres not only got more people wanting to advertise, but the demand allowed them to raise prices for limited quantities.

It was a slight increase in attendance, but a massive increase in revenues. The Padres stopped being "a small market team" and signed Machado, Tatis, traded for Soto and signed Bogaerts. That was four guys making the $300m contract money per season. (Sure, they traded Soto, but they've got the other three).


That being said, I don't think that the Padres finances are going to revert back to small market with a second team rejoining, because the Padres will be #1 to an NHL team instead of #2 to an NHL team. And the NHL will be fine because NHL teams require about a third of revenue NFL teams require. It's more that it's just fascinating to view and take lessons from.

For me I look at Anaheim being tied with Ottawa for 2nd in lowest gate receipt revenue, and possible candidate for lowest this year, and I wonder if that isn't a case of saturating a market. Southern Cal has a limited number of hockey fans...And most are Kings fans. I think Anaheim moving to San Diego would make some sense, if an arena was available. But again look at what Hamilton would generate for fan income, as a certainty and I don't think there is a strong argument there. Portland would make sense if there was an owner who wanted to buy in.

I hope the owners don't get too greedy. They have made some money by expanding, and negotiating a better TV deal because of it. Atlanta with its strong Southern presence still sticks out as a potential growth market, you could argue that Houston will divide a finite number of Texas hockey fans, but there is the coroporate dollars that can't be ignored. Fertitta may not be the guy to bring hockey there, but I suspect it will happen in the next 5 years.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

For me I look at Anaheim being tied with Ottawa for 2nd in lowest gate receipt revenue, and possible candidate for lowest this year, and I wonder if that isn't a case of saturating a market. Southern Cal has a limited number of hockey fans...And most are Kings fans. I think Anaheim moving to San Diego would make some sense, if an arena was available. But again look at what Hamilton would generate for fan income, as a certainty and I don't think there is a strong argument there. Portland would make sense if there was an owner who wanted to buy in.

I hope the owners don't get too greedy. They have made some money by expanding, and negotiating a better TV deal because of it. Atlanta with its strong Southern presence still sticks out as a potential growth market, you could argue that Houston will divide a finite number of Texas hockey fans, but there is the coroporate dollars that can't be ignored. Fertitta may not be the guy to bring hockey there, but I suspect it will happen in the next 5 years.

San Diego getting a team in addition to Kings and Ducks is not goping to impact ticket sales for the Ducks.

Please look at the map and see how far they are apart.

 

[Salsero1]

San Diego getting a team in addition to Kings and Ducks is not goping to impact ticket sales for the Ducks.

Please look at the map and see how far they are apart.

Yes, but there are starving fans in Canada /s

 

[Golden_Jet]

San Diego getting a team in addition to Kings and Ducks is not goping to impact ticket sales for the Ducks.

Please look at the map and see how far they are apart.

It would impact ticket sales for the ducks, since poster said, moving Ducks to San Diego

 

[Tawnos]

San Diego getting a team in addition to Kings and Ducks is not goping to impact ticket sales for the Ducks.

Please look at the map and see how far they are apart.

It reminds me of when people say "there's already a team in Texas" or "there are already 3 teams in California"

 

[WeaponOfChoice]

It reminds me of when people want Hamiltonians to cheer for Toronno or Barfalo

 

[BKIslandersFan]

It reminds me of when people want Hamiltonians to cheer for Toronno or Barfalo

Yea except that makes more sense because Hamilton is inifitely closer to both cities.

 

[aqib]

Yea except that makes more sense because Hamilton is inifitely closer to both cities.

the distance from Honda Center to the San Diego Arena is about the same as FirstOntario Centre to KeyBank Center and its about the same timewise.
FirstOntario to ScotiaBank Arena is closer in distance but timewise its a bit longer.
Now of course I mapped it at 850 AM Eastern time. So people in Cali are asleep so the time would be less.

 

[PCSPounder]

There is never not a slowdown on the 5 between the LA area and San Diego. Arguably even at midnight.

You can get Amtrak direct from San Diego to the arena, and I actually did that once, but even on a Friday night, just a couple handfuls of people did that.

 

[WeaponOfChoice]

the distance from Honda Center to the San Diego Arena is about the same as FirstOntario Centre to KeyBank Center and its about the same timewise.
FirstOntario to ScotiaBank Arena is closer in distance but timewise its a bit longer.
Now of course I mapped it at 850 AM Eastern time. So people in Cali are asleep so the time would be less.

Yeah but we won't let facts get in the way of Southern expansion.

 

[carjackmalone]

Why does everybody slam proximity of Buffalo,Toronto,Hamilton

Look at NYR,NYI,NJD.

Not to mention southern Ontario is the largest HOCKEY MARKET in the world.

 

[WeaponOfChoice]

Why does everybody slam proximity of Buffalo,Toronto,Hamilton

Look at NYR,NYI,NJD.

Not to mention southern Ontario is the largest HOCKEY MARKET in the world.

Because it's "cool" to hate on the popular kids.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

Why does everybody slam proximity of Buffalo,Toronto,Hamilton

Look at NYR,NYI,NJD.

Not to mention southern Ontario is the largest HOCKEY MARKET in the world.

I don't think it's a matter of slamming the Hamilton area, but rather recognizing that both the Sabres and Leafs would be opposed to a Hamilton team and use whatever formal or informal abilities they have at their disposal to make that as close to impossible as can be imagined. NYC metro area isn't the same, as the Isles came into being to specifically block a rival league from setting up shop on Long Island and the Devils at least are their own state and were moved at a much more haphazard time in the NHL's history.

My take is that Ontario could add both a GTA and a Hamilton team, and both they, the Sabres, and the Leafs would all be fine and dandy financially. But I'm under no circumstance expecting the Sabres and Leafs to give the green light on Hamilton and especially not expecting the Leafs to okay a GTA team.

 

[aqib]

I don't think it's a matter of slamming the Hamilton area, but rather recognizing that both the Sabres and Leafs would be opposed to a Hamilton team and use whatever formal or informal abilities they have at their disposal to make that as close to impossible as can be imagined. NYC metro area isn't the same, as the Isles came into being to specifically block a rival league from setting up shop on Long Island and the Devils at least are their own state and were moved at a much more haphazard time in the NHL's history.

My take is that Ontario could add both a GTA and a Hamilton team, and both they, the Sabres, and the Leafs would all be fine and dandy financially. But I'm under no circumstance expecting the Sabres and Leafs to give the green light on Hamilton and especially not expecting the Leafs to okay a GTA team.

The Devils literally shared a parking lot with two teams that called themselves "New York" for 15 years. Its like 5 miles as the crow flies from Manhattan.

Yes it was a chaotic time. It wasn't until after they had 3 moves in 3 years in the mid-90s that they started clamping down on franchise free agency.

 

[dj4aces]

Why does everybody slam proximity of Buffalo,Toronto,Hamilton

Look at NYR,NYI,NJD.

Not to mention southern Ontario is the largest HOCKEY MARKET in the world.

Because it's "cool" to hate on the popular kids.

Technically speaking, if a prospective owner with incredibly deep pockets decided they wanted to buy a franchise and put it in Hamilton, they absolutely could (assuming the league sells them one). But that's the rub, really: No one really wants to do that. That's not to say Hamilton is somehow a bad market, or that Gary hates Hamilton, or that it's cool to hate Hamilton, or any number of other reasons people might come up with. It's because the area will be a real money sink just to get into. If you think the Rangers allowed the Isles in or the Rangers, Isles, and Flyers allowed the Rockies to relocate to NJ without paying for access to the market area, you've got some history to catch up on.

Simply put, a prospective Hamilton owner would have to pay for the franchise, then pay off each of Buffalo and Toronto (unless the league just gives those two the entire expansion fee, which is very unlikely to happen these days). This is not the case in prospective expansion destinations like Houston, Atlanta, or Phoenix. The nearest franchises to these cities are hundreds of miles away.

This is all a business decision. Yeah, Hamilton would be instantly profitable, but it does nothing to grow the footprint of the sport. That's what the league wants -- more fans in more population centers. A team in Hamilton just isn't gonna generate new fans. But teams in Atlanta, Houston, and Phoenix will. In each city, this assumes that it's all done the right way -- something Atlanta struck out twice on. Bad ownership absolutely affects the number of fans who show up/are generated.

 

[aqib]

Technically speaking, if a prospective owner with incredibly deep pockets decided they wanted to buy a franchise and put it in Hamilton, they absolutely could (assuming the league sells them one). But that's the rub, really: No one really wants to do that. That's not to say Hamilton is somehow a bad market, or that Gary hates Hamilton, or that it's cool to hate Hamilton, or any number of other reasons people might come up with. It's because the area will be a real money sink just to get into. If you think the Rangers allowed the Isles in or the Rangers, Isles, and Flyers allowed the Rockies to relocate to NJ without paying for access to the market area, you've got some history to catch up on.

Simply put, a prospective Hamilton owner would have to pay for the franchise, then pay off each of Buffalo and Toronto (unless the league just gives those two the entire expansion fee, which is very unlikely to happen these days). This is not the case in prospective expansion destinations like Houston, Atlanta, or Phoenix. The nearest franchises to these cities are hundreds of miles away.

This is all a business decision. Yeah, Hamilton would be instantly profitable, but it does nothing to grow the footprint of the sport. That's what the league wants -- more fans in more population centers. A team in Hamilton just isn't gonna generate new fans. But teams in Atlanta, Houston, and Phoenix will. In each city, this assumes that it's all done the right way -- something Atlanta struck out twice on. Bad ownership absolutely affects the number of fans who show up/are generated.

Yeah Hamilton is a money sink but Phoenix is not. Got it.

How did Anaheim expand the footprint of the NHL? It didn't. The league just wanted Disney more involved. Disney meanwhile was getting into the team ownership business.

As far as Hamilton not generting new fans goes, the problem with what you're saying is that you're ignoring that the Leafs are inaccessible to a lot of fans because of the costs. So there are people who would be going to Hamilton games who could never go to a Leafs games.

 

[WeaponOfChoice]

I'm not crossing the border to watch the Sabres play on a consistent basis

 

[Salsero1]

Yeah Hamilton is a money sink but Phoenix is not. Got it.

How did Anaheim expand the footprint of the NHL? It didn't. The league just wanted Disney more involved. Disney meanwhile was getting into the team ownership business.

As far as Hamilton not generting new fans goes, the problem with what you're saying is that you're ignoring that the Leafs are inaccessible to a lot of fans because of the costs. So there are people who would be going to Hamilton games who could never go to a Leafs games.

The BoG couldn't care less about local revenue generated for one owner.

You're also ignoring that Hamilton NHL tickets would be priced through the stratosphere so you'll run into the same problem of accessibility. Nobody is going to drop the hideous amount of coin to install a franchise in Ontario just to make it a charity for for the pure cold blooded traditional fans.

 

[dj4aces]

Yeah Hamilton is a money sink but Phoenix is not. Got it.

How did Anaheim expand the footprint of the NHL? It didn't. The league just wanted Disney more involved. Disney meanwhile was getting into the team ownership business.

As far as Hamilton not generting new fans goes, the problem with what you're saying is that you're ignoring that the Leafs are inaccessible to a lot of fans because of the costs. So there are people who would be going to Hamilton games who could never go to a Leafs games.

It would be a money sink, because a hypothetical owner would be dumping billions extra into the market to make millions in return. That's multiple billions. If you think for a second that Toronto and Buffalo are going to give Hamilton a sweetheart deal to plop their team down in Hamilton, I have a bridge over the Detroit river for sale. So yes. A money sink -- for that particular owner. Indemnification, especially for SE Ontario territory rights, will not be cheap.

As for Anaheim, I'm sure Gary has a story about that. As we're all aware, the entire expansion fee was shipped off to the Kings owner just to allow that team in the league. In essence, one could argue that Anaheim gave the Kings a temporary influx of cash until that owner eventually sold the team.

No one since Balsillie has wanted to put a team there for a reason. Even if Leafs ownership changes, that will not. No one will give a hypothetical Hamilton owner a sweetheart deal on access to that market. That's why it won't happen. That's why it will be a money sink. That's why we will never see another team move into a cluster of other teams (ie NJD), and are very unlikely to see a team move near even one other team, ever again. So let's not pin our hopes on a GTA team either.

 

[aqib]

It would be a money sink, because a hypothetical owner would be dumping billions extra into the market to make millions in return. That's multiple billions. If you think for a second that Toronto and Buffalo are going to give Hamilton a sweetheart deal to plop their team down in Hamilton, I have a bridge over the Detroit river for sale. So yes. A money sink -- for that particular owner. Indemnification, especially for SE Ontario territory rights, will not be cheap.

As for Anaheim, I'm sure Gary has a story about that. As we're all aware, the entire expansion fee was shipped off to the Kings owner just to allow that team in the league. In essence, one could argue that Anaheim gave the Kings a temporary influx of cash until that owner eventually sold the team.

No one since Balsillie has wanted to put a team there for a reason. Even if Leafs ownership changes, that will not. No one will give a hypothetical Hamilton owner a sweetheart deal on access to that market. That's why it won't happen. That's why it will be a money sink. That's why we will never see another team move into a cluster of other teams (ie NJD), and are very unlikely to see a team move near even one other team, ever again. So let's not pin our hopes on a GTA team either.

Yeah but a large part of the reason is that they know the league will say no.

 

[rojac]

It would be a money sink, because a hypothetical owner would be dumping billions extra into the market to make millions in return. That's multiple billions. If you think for a second that Toronto and Buffalo are going to give Hamilton a sweetheart deal to plop their team down in Hamilton, I have a bridge over the Detroit river for sale. So yes. A money sink -- for that particular owner. Indemnification, especially for SE Ontario territory rights, will not be cheap.

As for Anaheim, I'm sure Gary has a story about that. As we're all aware, the entire expansion fee was shipped off to the Kings owner just to allow that team in the league. In essence, one could argue that Anaheim gave the Kings a temporary influx of cash until that owner eventually sold the team.

No one since Balsillie has wanted to put a team there for a reason. Even if Leafs ownership changes, that will not. No one will give a hypothetical Hamilton owner a sweetheart deal on access to that market. That's why it won't happen. That's why it will be a money sink. That's why we will never see another team move into a cluster of other teams (ie NJD), and are very unlikely to see a team move near even one other team, ever again. So let's not pin our hopes on a GTA team either.

Why would you ask Bettman about Anaheim? Anaheim was awarded the franchise pretty much the same time as Bettman was hired to be comissioner, a job he wouldn't start for another 2 months, so I really doubt he had anything to do with it.

The awarding of the Anaheim and Florida franchises was far less about expanding the footprint of the NHL than it was about bringing in a pair of big time owners. Disney in Anaheim and Wayne Huzienga in Florida. I could be wong about this but I've always assumed that this was an expansion that was pretty much put together by Kings owner Bruce McNall, who as Chair of the BoG, was pretty much running the league at that point as Gil Stein was on the way out as president and they hadn't yet selected someone to fill the role of commissioner (which would be replacing president as the tilte for the league's top executive). I think McNall wanted both to bring in more big-money owners to the NHL and line his own pockets, since he was pretty deeply in debt at the time. If I recall correctly, the1993 expansion came pretty much out of the blue to the general public.

 

[dj4aces]

The awarding of the Anaheim and Florida franchises was far less about expanding the footprint of the NHL than it was about bringing in a pair of big time owners. Disney in Anaheim and Wayne Huzienga in Florida.

Florida was the beginning of expansion in southern US markets, something that has continued since that time. There's no getting around that. Yeah, it very well could've been more about a play for big money owners, but that play resulted in some franchises coming dangerously close to failing. It illustrated to the league that perhaps accepting billionaires looking for tax write-offs wasn't the best approach.

As for stories on Anaheim or whatever other franchise, no one has to ask. I didn't even say to ask, making that a strange hill to climb. But I'd love to have been a fly on the wall at the league office.

 

[Tawnos]

The other thing with Anaheim. The LA market is enormous. In 1990, the Greater LA CSA (which does not include San Diego) was 14.5 million people. If you just look at the LA-Long Beach-Anaheim MSA, it was 11.2 million. Orange County alone is the size of a medium-sized NHL market. At the time, there were 2.4 million people living there. Today those numbers are 18.4 million, 12.7 million, and 3.1 million respectively. Orange County has more people than the entirely of the Denver MSA.

In other words even if you remove Orange County, the Kings are still in the second largest market in the league. And this is a market that wasn't saturated in the early 90s and arguably still isn't.

In terms of geographical area, the Ducks didn't expand the NHL's footprint. In terms of population coverage, they absolutely did.

Like @rojac said, the Disney money was a big deal in this conversation, but I think looking at the Ducks as not expanding the league's footprint isn't really accurate.

 

[aqib]

The other thing with Anaheim. The LA market is enormous. In 1990, the Greater LA CSA (which does not include San Diego) was 14.5 million people. If you just look at the LA-Long Beach-Anaheim MSA, it was 11.2 million. Orange County alone is the size of a medium-sized NHL market. At the time, there were 2.4 million people living there. Today those numbers are 18.4 million, 12.7 million, and 3.1 million respectively. Orange County has more people than the entirely of the Denver MSA.

In other words even if you remove Orange County, the Kings are still in the second largest market in the league. And this is a market that wasn't saturated in the early 90s and arguably still isn't.

In terms of geographical area, the Ducks didn't expand the NHL's footprint. In terms of population coverage, they absolutely did.

Like @rojac said, the Disney money was a big deal in this conversation, but I think looking at the Ducks as not expanding the league's footprint isn't really accurate.

Its 35 miles from the Forum (Where the Kings played at the time) to the Honda Center. If that's expaning the leagues footprint then so would the Kings moving 10 miles North to downtown LA.

 

[Tawnos]

Its 35 miles from the Forum (Where the Kings played at the time) to the Honda Center. If that's expaning the leagues footprint then so would the Kings moving 10 miles North to downtown LA.

It's almost like you decided not to read the part where I said "In terms of geographical area, the Ducks didn't expand the NHL's footprint. In terms of population coverage, they absolutely did."

I'll add this too. Through the lens of population, the Ducks did more to expand the league's footprint than a Hamilton team would.