Expansion to 36, which city is number 36?

[Golden_Jet]

There are plenty of quality big US markets for potential expansion, the notion that the NHL would overlook any of them for Canadian markets is ridiculous, if the NHL does go to 36 teams it's all gonna be in the USA.

It’s not ridiculous, Toronto 2 would do great, would need some money going to leafs though.

 

[GKJ]

Yeah, I agree he didn't just pull Cincinnati out of thin air, but I have no idea what local group would've approached him with a 10-figure offer.

It makes no sense on a number of levels.

Cincinnati is a bigger MSA than Columbus, so I get it. And new buildings are always development and real estate plays, and Cincinnati is well overdue for one. But I don’t think it’s real until you’re talking 40 teams, and/or the Blue Jackets run into problems. I don’t get the sense that they are, they seem well-supported despite their on-ice record.

 

[adsfan]

Cincinnati is a bigger MSA than Columbus, so I get it. And new buildings are always development and real estate plays, and Cincinnati is well overdue for one. But I don’t think it’s real until you’re talking 40 teams, and/or the Blue Jackets run into problems. I don’t get the sense that they are, they seem well-supported despite their on-ice record.

That may be true, but Columbus has 900,000 people in the city. Cincinnati is 310,000, down from 380,000 when I lived there. The Greater Cincinnati metro area is spread out to Northern Kentucky and a corner of Indiana. That is why a downtown arena is vital. It needs to be in the middle to draw people, just like the Reds and Bengals.
Cincinnati has no NBA team, which helps with the sports dollars and scheduling.

 

[saskriders]

Pretty much. I'm using CSA's where I can (or it makes sense), and MSAs where you can't or that makes sense; The average revenue per team in each sport times the number of each team each market has and dividing that by population.

Obviously, it's rudimentary, not exact, ignores the number of non-major teams and women's teams in the market, and overall is going to favor places with lower populations but no other major pro sports teams.


But I'm an excel nerd and a rudimentary list like that is a whole lot better than guessing!

Hartford is that big?

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Hartford is that big?

Not at all. MSA barely at a million and not much growth

 

[saskriders]

Not at all. MSA barely at a million and not much growth

Doesn't the post imply it is big? The low dollars per person (compared to most of the other cities on the list), would come from a high population dividing the cost.

 

[IU Hawks fan]

The league itself doesn't view it that way. Their spin is that while the NHL has 32 franchises, the fact that they only have 25 in the United States, comprising 22 individual markets, is a major problem for them. If you look at the numbers that way (subtracting the Canada teams and bunching the NY/NJ and LA/ANA teams together) then the totals look like this:

NFL: 30
NBA: 27
MLB: 25 (they also have duplicates in the Bay and Chicago)
NHL: 22

The NFL is the only league that is content and not really undergoing an expansion process. The NBA wants Vegas and Seattle. The MLB wants to get the hell out of Oakland and there's a non-zero chance the White Sox relocate before they also expand by two. The NHL expanding to 36 is honestly them keeping up with the other leagues for presence in the United States. Greedy? Sure that's one way to look at it. They look at it more as a necessity though.

There's absolutely zero chance the White Sox relocate.

 

[carjackmalone]

Sell the sabres and split the home games between Hamilton and Buffalo and call the team the Niagara Sabres.Give Buffalo the playoff games and build a demand in both cities.

 

[KasperTheGrittyGhost]

Portland makes the most sense, but I haven’t heard anything about them related to NHL circles.

I’d be very interested in Milwaukee if I were the NHL.

 

[Headshot77]

There's absolutely zero chance the White Sox relocate.

I don't know about that.

 

[BigT2002]

I've always kinda figured it would be:

Houston - 4th largest city and already had the other 3 major sports there.

Kansas City - Midwest Team and provides a stopgap between the Midwest and Colorado

Quebec City - I know its been talked to death, but ideally they would get another team

Atlanta - Effectively the capital of the south.

Cincy or Cleveland - I know the Cavs and Football kinda run the show there, but that is basically the same thing for the Wild in Minnesota when the Vikings are playing anyway.

 

[lakeshirts37]

because Kansas City is a flat no..... team is in Independence..... Cincinnati had that issue over 2 leagues/same sport.... Cleveland, GL getting Gilbert after alligning w/ Columbus..... Milwaukee got locked out when FISERV was built... Bradley Center was demolished and the existing team is UWM Panther aka the MECCA.... Indy has the Pacers/Fever as co-tenants..... that's why the Fuel have a separate arena....


Independence= Kansas City Mavericks | Kansas City, MO Professional Hockey | Schedule ARENA has been there since 2009

Nobody has a clue what youre saying

 

[lakeshirts37]

Portland makes the most sense, but I haven’t heard anything about them related to NHL circles.

I’d be very interested in Milwaukee if I were the NHL.

I dont love Portland

 

[KevFu]

Hartford is that big?

Not at all. MSA barely at a million and not much growth

Doesn't the post imply it is big? The low dollars per person (compared to most of the other cities on the list), would come from a high population dividing the cost.

It's mainly geography and population density. The formula by which they determine if two cities are "one MSA/CSA" is largely determined by where people live and commute to for work. So the Houston market would take up most of the size of Connecticut, but the infrastructure of Houston -- with 6-9 lane wide highways -- connects Katy to Baytown a lot better than the 2-3 lane wide northeaster highways connect Hartford to Hamden. But living and commuting DAILY vs 41 times a year for sports are totally different things.


And of course, there's an arbitrary line drawn on "teams to support." Do you really want to take the time to assign the 350 minor league teams a dollar value? Is a USL-2 soccer team and an AHL/Triple A team the same? And what about the colleges? Like the University of Texas has the same revenue as an NHL team, you can't count them the same as the Hartford Hawks.

So unless you want to take the time to do an economic breakdown of like 800 teams, you just kinda say "screw it, everyone knows the Texas Longhorns exist and bring in a lot more money than Old Dominion."

 

[saskriders]

It's mainly geography and population density. The formula by which they determine if two cities are "one MSA/CSA" is largely determined by where people live and commute to for work. So the Houston market would take up most of the size of Connecticut, but the infrastructure of Houston -- with 6-9 lane wide highways -- connects Katy to Baytown a lot better than the 2-3 lane wide northeaster highways connect Hartford to Hamden. But living and commuting DAILY vs 41 times a year for sports are totally different things.


And of course, there's an arbitrary line drawn on "teams to support." Do you really want to take the time to assign the 350 minor league teams a dollar value? Is a USL-2 soccer team and an AHL/Triple A team the same? And what about the colleges? Like the University of Texas has the same revenue as an NHL team, you can't count them the same as the Hartford Hawks.

So unless you want to take the time to do an economic breakdown of like 800 teams, you just kinda say "screw it, everyone knows the Texas Longhorns exist and bring in a lot more money than Old Dominion."

What figure did you have for Hartford population? What about say Jacksonville?

You divided the Harrford population by 1 (only NHL), and the Jacksonville population by 2 (NHL and NFL)?

 

[dj4aces]

What figure did you have for Hartford population? What about say Jacksonville?

You divided the Harrford population by 1 (only NHL), and the Jacksonville population by 2 (NHL and NFL)?

If it helps any, Wiki has Hartford's CSA at 1,489,361, and Jacksonville's CSA at 1,733,937.

 

[KevFu]

What figure did you have for Hartford population? What about say Jacksonville?

You divided the Harrford population by 1 (only NHL), and the Jacksonville population by 2 (NHL and NFL)?

Ah, it's not "divide by 1" or "divide by 2"

It's about $190m to fund an NHL team (I should bump that up to $200 with the Coyotes moving).
And it's about $580m to fund an NFL team.

So Hartford vs Jacksonville isn't 1 vs 2, it's 190 vs 770.

 

[BruinDust]

Despite the difference in market size, if they had a suitable building, the NHL would be better off going to Austin than Houston if they want a 2nd team in Texas.

Vibrant nightlife. Tourist destination with the live music scene. Big college town. Incomes 10% above average. Younger demographic. If they are growing fast that means plenty of jobs and working aged people with disposable incomes.

You get in on the ground floor as far as major league pro teams go. Think about the advantage Vegas had being the first big league team there. Rather than start off and always be a distant 4th in Houston. We've seen that large populations in southern markets hasn't always guaranteed success.

The franchise itself could latch on to the Austin community's momentum and grow with the city. Depending on what happens with oil and gas industry, what does Houston look like in 20-25 years? Does their own growth stagnant? Austin may be the better option short and long-term.

 

[Yukon Joe]

Despite the difference in market size, if they had a suitable building, the NHL would be better off going to Austin than Houston if they want a 2nd team in Texas.

Vibrant nightlife. Tourist destination with the live music scene. Big college town. Incomes 10% above average. Younger demographic. If they are growing fast that means plenty of jobs and working aged people with disposable incomes.

You get in on the ground floor as far as major league pro teams go. Think about the advantage Vegas had being the first big league team there. Rather than start off and always be a distant 4th in Houston. We've seen that large populations in southern markets hasn't always guaranteed success.

The franchise itself could latch on to the Austin community's momentum and grow with the city. Depending on what happens with oil and gas industry, what does Houston look like in 20-25 years? Does their own growth stagnant? Austin may be the better option short and long-term.

Austin could be a great location.

Who is going to be the owner?

 

[No Fun Shogun]

I agree that Austin would work, but Houston is so huge and with such a well-established professional sports scene that I have a hard time seriously thinking that Austin would under any circumstance be more inherently attractive than Houston.

Plus, the thing to remember is that Austin already effectively has two major sports teams already, Longhorns football and basketball (not to mention other moneymaking programs like baseball, as Texas is a rare school where multiple programs make money). Like Columbus with the Buckeyes, the local market already has an absurdly enormous college program in town that even recognizing that they'd be the first major pro team in town (intentional slight against the MLS) it wouldn't be accurate to look at it as an untapped market.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Bring them to real

 

[BruinDust]

Austin could be a great location.

Who is going to be the owner?

No idea.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Portland

 

[BruinDust]

I agree that Austin would work, but Houston is so huge and with such a well-established professional sports scene that I have a hard time seriously thinking that Austin would under any circumstance be more inherently attractive than Houston.

Plus, the thing to remember is that Austin already effectively has two major sports teams already, Longhorns football and basketball (not to mention other moneymaking programs like baseball, as Texas is a rare school where multiple programs make money). Like Columbus with the Buckeyes, the local market already has an absurdly enormous college program in town that even recognizing that they'd be the first major pro team in town (intentional slight against the MLS) it wouldn't be accurate to look at it as an untapped market.

I think one of the reasons the NHL went to Columbus vs. Cleveland or Cincinnati is the fact that even with the Buckeyes in town, there was no pro sports competition. No doubt college sports is massive in Columbus and Austin.

Not saying Houston would be a bad market, or that there wouldn't one day be three teams in Texas, but timing is everything and maybe Texas market No. 2 isn't the obvious choice.

Then factor in that live music scene draw bringing tourists in. You get some of the similar benefits that Vegas and Nashville enjoy with a vibrant entertainment scene helping draw people to the area and make travelling there more appealing.

Frankly I'd be a bit concerned with the local Houston economy in the long-term. The Oil and Gas industry is a huge part of their economy what happens if that industry shrinks considerably over the next few decades? If say Austin has a more diverse economy, maybe long-term that is the safer play.

I don't have any numbers but I'd be curious to see the retiree vs. working age demographics of each city. It's the working age folks who generally have more disposable income to spend on pro sports. Then factor in kids interest in pro sports teams can drive ticket sales, merch sales. Not a lot of retirees taking their adult children to pro sporting events or buying pro team merchandise.

Who knows, we've seen markets with huge populations fail, and some smaller markets succeed. And either way, the on-ice product has to be quality. No question one of the many reasons Atlanta and Phoenix failed was absolute lack of on-ice success. Two of the most inept franchises on-ice the past 25 years.

 

[nhlfan79]

Who knows, we've seen markets with huge populations fail, and some smaller markets succeed. And either way, the on-ice product has to be quality. No question one of the many reasons Atlanta* and Phoenix failed was absolute lack of on-ice success. Two of the most inept franchises on-ice the past 25 years.

* By the owners' intentional design.