Speculation: Expansion draft - who are you protecting?

[Buds17]

How much would it cost to have Seattle take Kerfoot over Dermott and Hyman? Does a pair of 2nd round picks sound about right?

I'm hopeful that the cost would be less - and certainly not more - than that. It's tough to say. Kerfoot is a player I expect the team to move on from due to the cap situation. Do they have other suitors lined up in the event Seattle decides not to draft him? Barring a major disagreement on contract value, Dubas might be less likely to trade Dermott if Seattle ultimately does not select him. Seattle probably only picks Hyman if they're certain about signing him.

 

[Menzinger]

How much would it cost to have Seattle take Kerfoot over Dermott and Hyman? Does a pair of 2nd round picks sound about right?

I think there's a fair chance they do it on their own without any needed help.

There will be very few guys available to them capable of playing centre while they will face a large sample of #4-6 D men to choose from. They will only take Dermott if they think he's a lock to be in their top 6, otherwise it's a waste of a selection for them since he's at an age where he needs icetime

 

[Menzinger]

I'd protect the expected 4-4-1 and let Seattle take who they want of Kerfoot or Dermott

 

[Golden_Jet]

If Hyman is available, I assume they take him, good player and work ethic for an expansion team.

 

[Menzinger]

If Hyman is available, I assume they take him, good player and work ethic for an expansion team.

He won't be unless resigned by the Leafs. Which I suspect won't be the case other than a handshake agreement

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Losing Tavares doesn't help the team.

And it would be Seattle's dream come true to start their franchise with a stud #1C.

Matthews is going to Seattle?

 

[zeke]

Matthews is going to Seattle?

Neither matthews nor the stud 1C behind him are going to Seattle.

 

[Griffin76]

Can they protect 6 3 1? Or does it have to be 4 4 1 or 7 3 1?

 

[57 Years No Cup]

So just give him away?

Come on Lou, you can do better.

Given Dube's history, after next year he's gonna walk anyway. Plus, he ain't worth #1 money because he ain't a #1 D.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Neither matthews nor the stud 1C behind him are going to Seattle.

Typo? #2 C amirite?

 

[zeke]

Typo? #2 C amirite?

Last 2yrs centers PPG:

1. McDavid 1.56
2. Draisaitl 1.52
3. MacKinnon 1.34
4. Matthews 1.19
5. Malkin 1.17
6. Crosby 1.15
7. Zibanejad 1.10
8. Eichel 1.08
9. Scheifele 1.07
10. Barkov 1.03
11. Kopitar 0.95
12. Aho 0.94
13. Backstrom 0.94
14. Point 0.93
15. Pettersson 0.93
16. Couturier 0.92
17. Tavares 0.90
18. Bergeron 0.90
19. Barzal 0.89
20. O'Reilly 0.87

Stud 1Cs all.

 

[cupcrazyman]

Can they protect 6 3 1? Or does it have to be 4 4 1 or 7 3 1?

Seattle 2021 NHL Expansion Draft rules same as Golden Knights followed

 

[Griffin76]

Seattle 2021 NHL Expansion Draft rules same as Golden Knights followed

I already read that and it's why I asked the question. Is 6 3 1 considered 7 3 1 but not having the extra forward to protect? Or does it have to be 5 3 1 because there's only allowed 8 skaters? Would a team be forced to sign another forward to go to 7 3 1 or would they be allowed to leave it at 6 3 1?

 

[613Leafer]

I don't think there's any debate - protect 4-4-1 instead of 7-3-1.

Which 4 D to protect is debatable though. I think Rielly, Brodie, and Holl are locks. After that, Muzzin is clearly better than Dermott and also brings that physical presence our team largely lacks and which is hard to replace.

But Muzzin is also 32 and signed for 3 more years at over 5M. Dermott would be much cheaper, and we're tight against the cap obviously. Plus way less risk Dermott takes a sharp decline (which Muzzin could do a year or two before the end of his contract given age/style of play).

I'd probably protect Muzzin, just because he's been so solid for us. But I'm always wary of bigger caphits for aging physical players.

 

[socko]

So who are the Leafs going to expose that meets the following criteria?

One defenseman who is a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played in at least 40 NHL games the prior season or played in at least 70 NHL games in the prior two seasons.

Is Dubas going to get 1 of his defensemen to sign a new deal so we can expose them?

 

[Bluelines]

Seattle must choose a minimum of 20 players under contract for the 2021-22 regular season and those with an aggregate Expansion Draft value that is between 60-100 percent of the prior season's upper limit for the salary cap. Seattle cannot buy out players chosen in the Expansion Draft earlier than the summer following its first season.

Current NHL teams can protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie, or eight skaters (forwards/defensemen) and one goalie, under the following conditions.

* All players with no movement clauses at the time of the draft, and who decline to waive those clauses, must be protected and will be counted toward their team's applicable protection limits.

* All first- and second-year professionals, and all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward protection limits.

In addition, all NHL teams must meet the following minimum requirements regarding players exposed for selection in the draft:

* One defenseman who is a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played in at least 40 NHL games the prior season or played in at least 70 NHL games in the prior two seasons.

* Two forwards who are a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played at least 40 NHL games the prior season or played in at least 70 NHL games in the prior two seasons.

* One goalie who is under contract in 2021-22 or will be a restricted free agent at the end of his current contract immediately prior to 2021-22. If a team elects to make a restricted free agent goalie available to meet this requirement, that goalie must have received his qualifying offer prior to the submission of the team's protected list.

* Players with potential career-ending injuries who have missed more than the previous 60 consecutive games (or who otherwise have been confirmed to have a career-threatening injury) may not be used to satisfy a team's player exposure requirements unless approval is received from the NHL. Such players also may be deemed exempt from selection.

 

[Bluelines]

I don't think there's any debate - protect 4-4-1 instead of 7-3-1.

Which 4 D to protect is debatable though. I think Rielly, Brodie, and Holl are locks. After that, Muzzin is clearly better than Dermott and also brings that physical presence our team largely lacks and which is hard to replace.

But Muzzin is also 32 and signed for 3 more years at over 5M. Dermott would be much cheaper, and we're tight against the cap obviously. Plus way less risk Dermott takes a sharp decline (which Muzzin could do a year or two before the end of his contract given age/style of play).

I'd probably protect Muzzin, just because he's been so solid for us. But I'm always wary of bigger caphits for aging physical players.

If you go 4-4-1 you lose Hyman, if you go 7-3-1 you lose Holl or Dermott. I'd rather lose Holl or Dermott

1. Matthews
2. Marner
3. Nylander
4. Tavares
5. Hyman
6. Kerfoot
7. ???

1. Brodie
2. Muzzin
3. Rielly

1. Campbell

Defence - We have Lilly and Sandin in the wings , they can easily replace Dermott. Holl plays a different game than those 2 but Sandin should be able to slot in at #4 and Lilly at #5.

Forwards - Robertson is probably a NHLer but who knows we have only seen him in a small sample size.

Just relooked at the rules, its not 4-4-1, it is 7-3-1 vs 8 skaters - 1 goalie,. you get to protect more with 7-3-1 but I'm not sure if we have 10 players we want to protect. You can go 8-1 (Matthews, Tavares, Nylander, Marner, Hyman, Brodie, Rielly, Muzzin, Campbell) but you probably lose Kerfoot or Holl or Dermott.

 

[Bluelines]

4-4-1 and we lose Dermott or Kerfoot. Hyman is signed after the draft.

And losing a player in the expansion draft is not "losing them for nothing". It might not be the value some players are worth, some of these posts about exposing Rielly and Tavares are... wow guys... but it's a roster job that has to be done.

We cant expose Tavares, he has a NMC we have to protect him.

 

[Stephen]

If you go 4-4-1 you lose Hyman, if you go 7-3-1 you lose Holl or Dermott. I'd rather lose Holl or Dermott

1. Matthews
2. Marner
3. Nylander
4. Tavares
5. Hyman
6. Kerfoot
7. ???

1. Brodie
2. Muzzin
3. Rielly

1. Campbell

Defence - We have Lilly and Sandin in the wings , they can easily replace Dermott. Holl plays a different game than those 2 but Sandin should be able to slot in at #4 and Lilly at #5.

Forwards - Robertson is probably a NHLer but who knows we have only seen him in a small sample size.

Just relooked at the rules, its not 4-4-1, it is 7-3-1 vs 8 skaters - 1 goalie,. you get to protect more with 7-3-1 but I'm not sure if we have 10 players we want to protect. You can go 8-1 (Matthews, Tavares, Nylander, Marner, Hyman, Brodie, Rielly, Muzzin, Campbell) but you probably lose Kerfoot or Holl or Dermott.

Why protect unrestricted free agent Hyman? Just sign him a week after the expansion draft.

 

[Bluelines]

Can they protect 6 3 1? Or does it have to be 4 4 1 or 7 3 1?

It has to be 7-3-1 or 8 skaters and 1 goalie and they have to expose 2 forwards and 1 d-man who have had 70 games played over the last 2 years or 40 games played this year.

 

[Bluelines]

Why protect unrestricted free agent Hyman? Just sign him a week after the expansion draft.

I don't want him to go to UFA or have a chances he hits the UFA market. Edmonton is going to back up the money truck to take him. He is the perfect winger for McDavid.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

How much would it cost to have Seattle take Kerfoot over Dermott and Hyman? Does a pair of 2nd round picks sound about right?

Here's a nice process to ballpark it:

A. Ballpark how much Kerfoot returns in a trade
B. Ballpark how much Dermott returns in a trade

The answer should be B - A in terms of value.

2 2nds seems like too much. Maybe one 1 2nd.

That said, I have a hard time seeing Seattle doing too many trades that makes their roster worse now in exchange for futures.

 

[Stephen]

I don't want him to go to UFA or have a chances he hits the UFA market. Edmonton is going to back up the money truck to take him. He is the perfect winger for McDavid.

No, that’s panicked behaviour. Negotiate the deal before the expansion draft, expose him, then sign him June 30.

 

[aingefan]

Taking the higher contract, higher value player isn’t really a big deal for Seattle… Because they can just flip them.
I wouldn’t expose Muzzin because of his contract, because he’s plenty more valuable than anyone else we’d otherwise expose.
if Seattle is projected to have an overflow of 4 to 6 defenceman, Then maybe that works in Toronto’s favour acquiring a forward with term.

 

[613Leafer]

If you go 4-4-1 you lose Hyman, if you go 7-3-1 you lose Holl or Dermott. I'd rather lose Holl or Dermott

No you don't. Hyman is a UFA, and free agency is after the expansion draft. So Seattle I guess could claim him, but he could then leave a week later.

You simply have a handshake deal with Hyman, and sign him after the expansion draft (and can even do so before the free agency period begins). Several teams did this last time to avoid losing a good player.