Rumor: Evans asking for $4M x 5 years

[ReHabs]

Keep Evans dude is a winner come on

Trade market looks bad too

Habs record during Evans' career:

NB: He played 7 games in the 2021 playoffs, picking up 2pts.

 

[Walrus26]

Someone help me out here.

Why is 4 x $3,5m a good deal, but 5 x $4m is a unjustifiable overpayment? Is that extra $.5m p/a and a 5th year at $4m going to stop us from achieving what we all want the team to achieve? Genuine question.

Anyone would think we're offering Evans a Gally-esque contract, or inking him to Josh Anderson's deal.

 

[ReHabs]

Someone help me out here.

Why is 4 x $3,5m a good deal, but 5 x $4m is a unjustifiable overpayment? Is that extra $.5m p/a and a 5th year at $4m going to stop us from achieving what we all want the team to achieve? Genuine question.

Anyone would think we're offering Evans a Gally-esque contract, or inking him to Josh Anderson's deal.

Evans has never had a season as productive as this, it stands to assume this could be his peak production since he's shooting at double his career shooting%. Currently he has 28pts in 60, that is is 38pts in a season.

So if we assume this is his peak production, the best return we have is 38pts and it stands to assume he will be 'past his peak' and therefore decline at some point during the length of the contract.

The longer the contract the more clear the decline. It could be in year4 we're paying 4m for a 20pt season, and in year5 for even less.

This is not cap efficiency and it doesn't bode well for when we do need to achieve what we want to achieve (winning playoff games) and need to re-sign performers who actually earn raises and big contracts with their playoff performances.

One can also assume there will be bargains and diamonds in the rough in the pursuit of the tinkering with the bottom6. Acquiring another Paul Byron (waivers) or Joel Armie (cap-dump) is far easier to imagine than acquiring premium players in more important roles.

tl;dr I'd rather overpay for a hypothetical premium player. Imagine Hutson, would you not prefer to have extra cash to give to Hutson (and Demidov) than not?

 

[salbutera]

Someone help me out here.

Why is 4 x $3,5m a good deal, but 5 x $4m is a unjustifiable overpayment? Is that extra $.5m p/a and a 5th year at $4m going to stop us from achieving what we all want the team to achieve? Genuine question.

Anyone would think we're offering Evans a Gally-esque contract, or inking him to Josh Anderson's deal.

There’s this prevalent view all that matters is pts scored, a 4th liner who scores 207 pts yer year doesn’t deserve more than $3M and very little term 2-3 years.

What’s being overlooked is the importance of team 4-line depth, which is an obvious HuGo strategy, and that approach won’t change when Demigod arrives, MSL believes in rolling 4-lines, and ever player having a specific role - Evans being an elite PKer

Oh yeah let’s also conveniently overlook $4,5M in 2028 $ = $3M in todays cap world

 

[Agalloch]

I keep Dvorak to finish the season and trade Evans.

Centers for the last 20 games:

Suzuki
Newhook
Dvorak
Beck

 

[TheArch]

Someone help me out here.

Why is 4 x $3,5m a good deal, but 5 x $4m is a unjustifiable overpayment? Is that extra $.5m p/a and a 5th year at $4m going to stop us from achieving what we all want the team to achieve? Genuine question.

Anyone would think we're offering Evans a Gally-esque contract, or inking him to Josh Anderson's deal.

4x3.5 is most likely already too expensive relative to Habs situation. 3 years from now, I'd probably overpay for a bottom 6 if he's helping us win it all. But we're not there. Habs already overpay for most of its bottom 6, you have many bottom 6 cheap centers coming soon (Beck, kapanen, Xhekaj, Dach, Newhooks), and you can't afford to miss out on wtv Evans will fetch at TD.

 

[Scriptor]

4x3.5 is most likely already too expensive relative to Habs situation. 3 years from now, I'd probably overpay for a bottom 6 if he's helping us win it all. But we're not there. Habs already overpay for most of its bottom 6, you have many bottom 6 cheap centers coming soon (Beck, kapanen, Xhekaj, Dach, Newhooks), and you can't afford to miss out on wtv Evans will fetch at TD.

If Evans can't get you a 1st round pick (even what will likely become a late first round pick), not trading Evans won't be a sacrilege.

You won't find me on the ledge of a high-rise screaming, "If only we'd only had that late 2nd round pick for Evans rather than resigning him!" as I jump to my death.

Keeping Evans is not a problem at all. He can always be traded down the line if all these bottom-6 Cs make a case for themselves.

Dach and Newhook are not Cs. Xhekaj is a few years away, still. Kapanen can play wing in the bottom-6.

 

[TheArch]

If Evans can't get you a 1st round pick (even what will likely become a late first round pick), not trading Evans won't be a sacrilege.

You won't find me on the ledge of a high-rise screaming, "If only we'd only had that late 2nd round pick for Evans rather than resigning him!" as I jump to my death.

Keeping Evans is not a problem at all. He can always be traded down the line if all these bottom-6 Cs make a case for themselves.

Dach and Newhook are not Cs. Xhekaj is a few years away, still. Kapanen can play wing in the bottom-6.

Last year, as a 3rd C with Roy or Gally and Armia, Newhooks has been more then good. He's not a top 6 C, but i'd assume he can be a very good 3C. Btw, he's the one taking face off on Beck's line.

But you are right, it's not the end of the world to resign Evans at decent numbers. But he don't want decent numbers. He wants to hit hard, and it's all right. I take the 2rd pick anytime, unless he's willing to accept something like 3M x 4 max. You want to keep everything you have to swing for real top end talents, not bottom feeders. You are supposed to have lot of cheap options within your pipeline.

 

[Schooner Guy]

Evans has never had a season as productive as this, it stands to assume this could be his peak production since he's shooting at double his career shooting%. Currently he has 28pts in 60, that is is 38pts in a season.

So if we assume this is his peak production, the best return we have is 38pts and it stands to assume he will be 'past his peak' and therefore decline at some point during the length of the contract.

The longer the contract the more clear the decline. It could be in year4 we're paying 4m for a 20pt season, and in year5 for even less.

This is not cap efficiency and it doesn't bode well for when we do need to achieve what we want to achieve (winning playoff games) and need to re-sign performers who actually earn raises and big contracts with their playoff performances.

One can also assume there will be bargains and diamonds in the rough in the pursuit of the tinkering with the bottom6. Acquiring another Paul Byron (waivers) or Joel Armie (cap-dump) is far easier to imagine than acquiring premium players in more important roles.

tl;dr I'd rather overpay for a hypothetical premium player. Imagine Hutson, would you not prefer to have extra cash to give to Hutson (and Demidov) than not?

I'm not saying pay him the money but if you're basing Evans' value on points and nothing else, you're not assessing him properly. He does so many little things, insulates our younger centers (Dach, Newhook, Beck) who haven't yet figured out the position and may never figure it out, and is on the ice in key situations. Losing him will create a huge hole in the lineup at an important position where we are extremely thin.

We're also likely losing Dvorak. That's a lot of minutes to plug at a position that takes several years for most to adapt to at the NHL level.

 

[Team_Spirit]

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[ReHabs]

I'm not saying pay him the money but if you're basing Evans' value on points and nothing else, you're not assessing him properly. He does so many little things, insulates our younger centers (Dach, Newhook, Beck) who haven't yet figured out the position and may never figure it out, and is on the ice in key situations. Losing him will create a huge hole in the lineup at an important position where we are extremely thin.

We're also likely losing Dvorak. That's a lot of minutes to plug at a position that takes several years for most to adapt to at the NHL level.

I think the hole he will leave is not particularly difficult to fill and can be done before the start of next season.

Look at it this way: consider that he's priced himself out and we need to either cash in on him as a TDL piece or play him another 16-20 games and then lose him for free anyway.

 

[TheArch]

I think the hole he will leave is not particularly difficult to fill and can be done before the start of next season.

Look at it this way: consider that he's priced himself out and we need to either cash in on him as a TDL piece or play him another 16-20 games and then lose him for free anyway.

Not to mention we should uses these 16-20 games to give some young players a NHL taste. Trade Evans and Armia, and replace them on PK by Beck and Heineman. Develop.

 

[Rapala]

Habs record during Evans' career:

View attachment 985322

NB: He played 7 games in the 2021 playoffs, picking up 2pts.

Our PK has been bottom of the barrel for most of that time and particularly horrendous the four seasons prior to this one. The one time it was very very good was post season 2020-2021 we hit 91% Evans only played three of those games. The common denominator for the improved PK has always been the play of Joel Armia who helped rescue our numbers towards the end of last season.

The best hockey we have played in recent years has indeed been that post season.
Funny enough Kotkaniemi played 19 of those games to Jake Evans 3.
Still we are led to believe this team will crash and burn if we don't resign Jake Evans.

 

[BLONG7]

Winning 4 in a row, and getting back in the mix, along with losing Dach, maybe is complicating things for HuGo as the deadline approaches??

 

[DAChampion]

Given that Evans has relatively high IQ and relatively weak physical assets, I expect that he'll age decently.

It's also the case that having good penalty killers is very important. Aside from preventing goals against, it's better to not be one of those teans that uses its better forwards on the PK, as that causes injury and fatigue.

There's still a risk that this would be an albatross contract in years 4 and 5 though, and though I don't expect Beck and Kappanen to replace Evans today, they will almost certainly be much better by 2030.

 

[StCaufield]

Red wings would pay a big price for him. Worst PK in the league and hanging on for the wildcard barely. If Montreal loses the next couple I’d listen

 

[TheArch]

Winning 4 in a row, and getting back in the mix, along with losing Dach, maybe is complicating things for HuGo as the deadline approaches??

Nope

 

[Agalloch]

Evans needs to sign before TD or we trade him.

 

[Schooner Guy]

I think the hole he will leave is not particularly difficult to fill and can be done before the start of next season.

Look at it this way: consider that he's priced himself out and we need to either cash in on him as a TDL piece or play him another 16-20 games and then lose him for free anyway.

We'll see how easy that hole is to fill this offseason with someone who plays that role as well as Evans. Most teams in the NHL will be looking to improve their 3rd and 4th lines this offseason and especially up the middle.

Given that we're 3 points out of a playoff spot, I wouldn't trade him for a late-2nd when we have an abundance of picks. I'd simply consider him a late season rental that we didn't have to trade assets for. If someone offers a 1st, that would be different.

 

[canucklover123]

I like Evans but he's a dime a dozen player. I don't want us locking up bottom 6 for long term until we find a team that will consistently be in playoffs, not there yet.

Evans having a great season though, happy for him. He'll get some money when I honestly thought he was out after that Schieffle hit. 7th rounder too, good for him!

 

[Sorinth]

Given that Evans has relatively high IQ and relatively weak physical assets, I expect that he'll age decently.

It's also the case that having good penalty killers is very important. Aside from preventing goals against, it's better to not be one of those teans that uses its better forwards on the PK, as that causes injury and fatigue.

There's still a risk that this would be an albatross contract in years 4 and 5 though, and though I don't expect Beck and Kappanen to replace Evans today, they will almost certainly be much better by 2030.

Hard to imagine 4m being an albatross in years 4-5 when the cap is going to be something like $120m. Especially as you say he's probably going to age fairly well and so should be tradeable if/when a young guy is actually ready to replace those tough minutes. And not for nothing but having Evans on the team taking those hard minutes makes it more likely that a Beck/Kapanen actually hit their potential and become an upgrade on Evans.

 

[canucklover123]

I like Evans but he's a dime a dozen player. I don't want us locking up bottom 6 for long term until we find a team that will consistently be in playoffs, not there yet.

Evans having a great season though, happy for him. He'll get some money when I honestly thought he was out after that Schieffle hit. 7th rounder too, good for him!

 

[BergevinBurner]

Hard to imagine 4m being an albatross in years 4-5 when the cap is going to be something like $120m. Especially as you say he's probably going to age fairly well and so should be tradeable if/when a young guy is actually ready to replace those tough minutes. And not for nothing but having Evans on the team taking those hard minutes makes it more likely that a Beck/Kapanen actually hit their potential and become an upgrade on Evans.

Plus if we lose Evans, Armia and Savard this summer then that's essentially our entire 1st PK unit gone down the drain. Right now we have the 7th best PK in the league, if we lose all of those guys I could easily see us drop into the bottom 10 in the league on the penalty kill. I think a lot of people are overlooking how much that's going to hurt the team next season.

 

[CAUFIELD]

4years * 3,5m$ signed before TDL or traded

 

[Heffyhoof]

My bad I thought he was 26 for some reason?

So he’s 28 & has a birthday in June. I’d like 5 years max. term and still $3.5-$3.75 AAV.

Cheers

Yeah, oddly enough I also thought Evans was around 26 until I checked. 5 years is a bit much and I suspect that's where the team and him are really split, 3-4 years would be a lot nicer.