Toggle sidebar

Player Discussion Evan Bouchard

  • Work is still on-going to rebuild the site styling and features. Please report any issues you may experience so we can look into it. Click Here for Updates
Comparisons to Makar are ridiculous. He's not at that level.
One PPG season doesn't define him. The Oilers need to learn from their past mistakes and not award long term contracts off one good year.
His comparables are Theodore, Sergachev, Chabot or Dobson. That would place him in the $7.5-8.5 Mill range.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TKB21, Oilers, InTheBox and 3 others
Gunnersaurus Rex said:
Comparisons to Makar are ridiculous. He's not at that level.
One PPG season doesn't define him. The Oilers need to learn from their past mistakes and not award long term contracts off one good year.
His comparables are Theodore, Sergachev, Chabot or Dobson. That would place him in the $7.5-8.5 Mill range.
Click to expand...
Hey Jimmi, do you care to jump in and explain to us all how Bouchard is on the same level as Makar and Hughes and how I am an idiot for predicting this play from Bouchard?
 
Lacaar said:
I think he's just entering the next stage in his growth.

Teams have identified him and are attacking him hard as a point of weakness.
I think he'll come around and adapt.
Click to expand...
See I don't. Currently I do think he is playing much below his standard/ability and I do expect progression from Bouchard this season. He's a good hockey player, that said I don't think he's an elite guy.

Like you said teams have figured him out by pressing him and I just don't think he has the athletic ability to adapt enough. I think he also processes the game too slow which is why the turnovers are coming into play so often. (offensively as well)

Bouchard's best attribute is a booming shot. He's a great PP guy and benefits from playing with Mcdavid and Drai. (Just like Barrie did)
 
  • Like
Reactions: InTheBox, gretzkyoilers and Gunnersaurus Rex
Gunnersaurus Rex said:
Comparisons to Makar are ridiculous. He's not at that level.
One PPG season doesn't define him. The Oilers need to learn from their past mistakes and not award long term contracts off one good year.
His comparables are Theodore, Sergachev, Chabot or Dobson. That would place him in the $7.5-8.5 Mill range.
Click to expand...
Do you have anything to back that up?

Makar without Mackinnon on the ice is pretty garbage this year.
 
Gunnersaurus Rex said:
Comparisons to Makar are ridiculous. He's not at that level.
One PPG season doesn't define him. The Oilers need to learn from their past mistakes and not award long term contracts off one good year.
His comparables are Theodore, Sergachev, Chabot or Dobson. That would place him in the $7.5-8.5 Mill range.
Click to expand...
I know Hughes signed his contract right after his ELC but Bouchard is not worth more then Hughes.
 
Gunnersaurus Rex said:
Comparisons to Makar are ridiculous. He's not at that level.
One PPG season doesn't define him. The Oilers need to learn from their past mistakes and not award long term contracts off one good year.
His comparables are Theodore, Sergachev, Chabot or Dobson. That would place him in the $7.5-8.5 Mill range.
Click to expand...

Even if I agree that those are pretty comparable players from a value perspective (I do agree), that doesn't make them comparable contracts, nor does it exactly help our case to keep his AAV low.

Theodore
  • IMO is a better all around player (but not nearly as strong offensively), but the contract isn't a comparable.
  • He's signed for $7.5M from ages 30 to 36.... that's way at the tail end of his peak.
  • Bouchard's contract is going to be from 26 to 33 = not comparable
  • Not to mention Bouchard's outscoring numbers (even this year @ 54%) are consistently above Theodore's and the obvious counting numbers offensively are also not close, one guy is 50-60 points while playing primo pp mins, the other guy is 60-80
Sergachev
  • Signed for $8.5M in July 2022 after a 64 point campaign. I agree, that's a pretty good comparable.
  • The cap was 82.5M. Still the tail end of covid days and projections were murky, so that would have hurt his camp.
  • Even still... That prorates to $9.53... oh look, that's exactly the number I had for Bouch on a deferred contract!
Chabot
  • Signed in year 2 of his ELC in 2019
  • He'd just scored 55 points, so negotiations favored him (but he hasn't done that since)
  • Bouchard's camp would certainly argue that he's accomplished more than Chabot, but he doesn't even need to argue that strongly because:
  • Chabot's contract was 10% of the cap... cap will be 92.5M next year, so Bouchard could use this as a comp to justify $9.25M and argue/negotiate up from there... all the stats are in his favor
Dobson
  • Let's see what happens, Bouchard should be in the same range, but get ~$500K more than Dobson IMO... comparable players for sure, but Bouch has accomplished more, I don't think that's particularly debatable.

As for Makar... the eye test says he's a world apart from Bouchard. But then the eye test says McDavid is a world apart from Draisaitl. Some of that is style points going to the faster, more dynamic player vs a more cerebral puck movement game which is garnished with a better shot.

That aside, here are the numbers... these are both primary PP guys, so it is worthwhile to show "all situations" to capture their power play in addition to 5v5. I've also factored McK/R & McDrai out and colored the winning and losing numbers (all from NaturalStatTrick):

Makar
  • This year:
    • With McK/R: 5v5 GF% = 59 , 5v5 xGF% = 64, Overall GF% (incl PP): 67
    • Without McK/R: 5v5 GF% = 22 (OUCH!) , 5v5 xGF% = 43
  • Last year:
    • With McK/R: 5v5 GF% = 59, 5v5 xGF% = 55 , Overall GF% (incl PP): 70
    • Without McK/R: 5v5 GF% = 43, 5v5 xGF% = 51
  • Contract negotiation year:
    • With McK/R: 5v5 GF% = 62 , 5v5 xGF% = 66 , Overall GF% (incl PP): 72
    • Without McK/R: 5v5 GF% = 71, 5v5 xGF% = 57

Bouchard
  • This year:
    • With McDrai: 5v5 GF% = 76, 5v5 xGF% = 64 , Overall GF% (incl PP) = 75
    • Without McDrai: 5v5 GF% = 45, 5v5 xGF% = 49 ,
  • Last year:
    • With McDrai: 5v5 GF% = 72 , 5v5 xGF% = 62 , Overall GF% (incl PP) = 77
    • Without McDrai: 5v5 GF% = 54, 5v5 xGF% = 55 ,
  • Contract negotiation year: Same as this year.
    • With McDrai: 5v5 GF% = 76, 5v5 xGF% = 64 , Overall GF% (incl PP) = 75
    • Without McDrai: 5v5 GF% = 45, 5v5 xGF% = 49
It's a pretty stark comparison and definitely favors Bouchard overall. Obviously Makar had a monster contract year, which helped him.

And I'm not saying Bouchard is as good as Makar... I'm saying his agent (Dave Gagner) is going to say that and his agent has the numbers on his side.

This is going to be a tough negotiation.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Tobias Kahun
bucks_oil said:
Even if I agree that those are pretty comparable players from a value perspective (I do agree), that doesn't make them comparable contracts, nor does it exactly help our case to keep his AAV low.

Theodore
  • IMO is a better all around player (but not nearly as strong offensively), but the contract isn't a comparable.
  • He's signed for $7.5M from ages 30 to 36.... that's way at the tail end of his peak.
  • Bouchard's contract is going to be from 26 to 33 = not comparable
  • Not to mention Bouchard's outscoring numbers (even this year @ 54%) are consistently above Theodore's and the obvious counting numbers offensively are also not close, one guy is 50-60 points while playing primo pp mins, the other guy is 60-80
Sergachev
  • Signed for $8.5M in July 2022 after a 64 point campaign. I agree, that's a pretty good comparable.
  • The cap was 82.5M. Still the tail end of covid days and projections were murky, so that would have hurt his camp.
  • Even still... That prorates to $9.53... oh look, that's exactly the number I had for Bouch on a deferred contract!
Chabot
  • Signed in year 2 of his ELC in 2019
  • He'd just scored 55 points, so negotiations favored him (but he hasn't done that since)
  • Bouchard's camp would certainly argue that he's accomplished more than Chabot, but he doesn't even need to argue that strongly because:
  • Chabot's contract was 10% of the cap... cap will be 92.5M next year, so Bouchard could use this as a comp to justify $9.25M and argue/negotiate up from there... all the stats are in his favor
Dobson
  • Let's see what happens, Bouchard should be in the same range, but get ~$500K more than Dobson IMO... comparable players for sure, but Bouch has accomplished more, I don't think that's particularly debatable.

As for Makar... the eye test says he's a world apart from Bouchard. But then the eye test says McDavid is a world apart from Draisaitl. Some of that is style points going to the faster, more dynamic player vs a more cerebral puck movement game which is garnished with a better shot.

That aside, here are the numbers... these are both primary PP guys, so it is worthwhile to show "all situations" to capture their power play in addition to 5v5. I've also factored McK/R & McDrai out and colored the winning and losing numbers (all from NaturalStatTrick):

Makar
  • This year:
    • With McK/R: 5v5 GF% = 59 , 5v5 xGF% = 64, Overall GF% (incl PP): 67
    • Without McK/R: 5v5 GF% = 22 (OUCH!) , 5v5 xGF% = 43
  • Last year:
    • With McK/R: 5v5 GF% = 59, 5v5 xGF% = 55 , Overall GF% (incl PP): 70
    • Without McK/R: 5v5 GF% = 43, 5v5 xGF% = 51
  • Contract negotiation year:
    • With McK/R: 5v5 GF% = 62 , 5v5 xGF% = 66 , Overall GF% (incl PP): 72
    • Without McK/R: 5v5 GF% = 71, 5v5 xGF% = 57

Bouchard
  • This year:
    • With McDrai: 5v5 GF% = 76, 5v5 xGF% = 64 , Overall GF% (incl PP) = 75
    • Without McDrai: 5v5 GF% = 45, 5v5 xGF% = 49 ,
  • Last year:
    • With McDrai: 5v5 GF% = 72 , 5v5 xGF% = 62 , Overall GF% (incl PP) = 77
    • Without McDrai: 5v5 GF% = 54, 5v5 xGF% = 55 ,
  • Contract negotiation year: Same as this year.
    • With McDrai: 5v5 GF% = 76, 5v5 xGF% = 64 , Overall GF% (incl PP) = 75
    • Without McDrai: 5v5 GF% = 45, 5v5 xGF% = 49
It's a pretty stark comparison and definitely favors Bouchard overall. Obviously Makar had a monster contract year, which helped him.

And I'm not saying Bouchard is as good as Makar... I'm saying his agent (Dave Gagner) is going to say that and his agent has the numbers on his side.

This is going to be a tough negotiation.
Click to expand...
Then you let him walk because Bouchard isn't worth anything north of 8. He makes so many brain dead mistakes and athletically just doesn't have it. Put Bouchard on the bottom 20 teams in the league and he's probably making 4-5 million
 
  • Like
Reactions: InTheBox
Whoshattenkirkshoes said:
Then you let him walk because Bouchard isn't worth anything north of 8. He makes so many brain dead mistakes and athletically just doesn't have it. Put Bouchard on the bottom 20 teams in the league and he's probably making 4-5 million
Click to expand...

Bouchard is having a struggling year no doubt, but that's all you see...or want to see i should say.

Bouch still makes waaaaay more good plays than bad ones. You just fail to recognize or acknowledge them, and when he plays well, you go silent.

There's also this little part of the season called playoffs. Maybe you've heard of it. And in this part of the year called playoffs... Bouchard has been an absolute monster every year.

Only a bonehead would allow him to walk into FA
 
  • Like
Reactions: Tobias Kahun, McAsuno and Juxta Position
bobbythebrain said:
Bouchard is having a struggling year no doubt, but that's all you see...or want to see i should say.

Bouch still makes waaaaay more good plays than bad ones. You just fail to recognize or acknowledge them, and when he plays well, you go silent.

There's also this little part of the season called playoffs. Maybe you've heard of it. And in this part of the year called playoffs... Bouchard has been an absolute monster every year.

Only a bonehead would allow him to walk into FA
Click to expand...
It goes both ways. Bouchard doesn’t make the playoffs with half the teams in the league.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Whoshattenkirkshoes
bobbythebrain said:
Bouchard is having a struggling year no doubt, but that's all you see...or want to see i should say.

Bouch still makes waaaaay more good plays than bad ones. You just fail to recognize or acknowledge them, and when he plays well, you go silent.

There's also this little part of the season called playoffs. Maybe you've heard of it. And in this part of the year called playoffs... Bouchard has been an absolute monster every year.

Only a bonehead would allow him to walk into FA
Click to expand...
This couldn't be more false. I was the one who recognized this last year and saw it coming. I was the one who when he was putting up "big numbers" was still criticizing his play while you guys shit all over me.

I've always said Bouchard makes good plays, but he makes WAAAAAY too many bad plays to be considered elite and make big $$$.

Pretty sure you, Jimmi and Tobias are the ones who have gone silent. The irony....
 
Last edited:
Whoshattenkirkshoes said:
This couldn't be more false. I was the one who recognized this last year and saw it coming. I was the one who when he was putting up "big numbers" was still criticizing his play while you guys shit all over me.

I've always said Bouchard makes good plays, but he makes WAAAAAY too many bad plays to be considered elite and make big $$$.

Pretty sure you, Jimmi and Tobias are the ones who have gone silent. The irony....
Click to expand...
You need to get over however Bouchard was rude to you in HS, we don't care.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Tobias Kahun
Found it noticeable and interesting that for the final 3 1/2 minutes of the game, in a tight match up that the coaching staff sat Bouchard and went with 14/49 & 25/27 as the defence pairings.
Recognition that Bouchard is a defensive liability and can't be trusted in those situations ???
 
Whoshattenkirkshoes said:
Then you let him walk because Bouchard isn't worth anything north of 8. He makes so many brain dead mistakes and athletically just doesn't have it. Put Bouchard on the bottom 20 teams in the league and he's probably making 4-5 million
Click to expand...

"Let him walk" - I'm not even going to touch that one, you are obviously writing that "as a fan" (emotion) and not as a GM (rational).

Everybody sees those obvious glaring errors... I'm a goalie, so I'm particularly sensitive to the bone-headed decisions.

but you are obviously missing ~everything else, otherwise how else could he have put up 55% xgoal share and actual goal share with our two best players off the ice at 5v5? If he's making as many errors as you think he is, why aren't they skewing the score sheet?

And it isn't just last year. Here are his aggregate stats over the last three years (which includes his relative struggles this year):

Bouchard with McDrai: 5v5 GF% = 70%!!!
McDrai together without Bouchard = 70% --> 54%
Bouchard without both = 52%
Drai without both = 53%
McD without both = 52%

When this guy isn't making blatantly obvious errors (fixating too much on offense at the opponents blue line), he is tilting the ice on every other shift. Objectively, ie rational, borne out by data, he is giving you way more than he gives up. And he does it no matter who he's playing with (yes, surprisingly that includes Ekholm too... 59% xGF% without all three)
 
  • Like
Reactions: bobbythebrain, Tobias Kahun, McAsuno and 1 other person
Whoshattenkirkshoes said:
This couldn't be more false. I was the one who recognized this last year and saw it coming. I was the one who when he was putting up "big numbers" was still criticizing his play while you guys shit all over me.

I've always said Bouchard makes good plays, but he makes WAAAAAY too many bad plays to be considered elite and make big $$$.

Pretty sure you, Jimmi and Tobias are the ones who have gone silent. The irony....
Click to expand...

Lolol. You critised him in the playoffs. How dumb is that?. He was excellent 98% of those playoffs but you felt the need to bash him? For what?....oh, I remember,
you went bananas for the giveaway at the blueline vs LA. However, it was 100% Foegles fault, yet you pinned it on Bouchard

The reason ppl bashed you is cherry picking a bad play here or there in those playoffs is just moronic. In a run filled w/ thousands of good plays, only to focus on a few bad ones..well that's just illogical

As I stated, the one you were most vocal about...you didn't even have the capacity to even understand the play
 
  • Like
Reactions: Tobias Kahun and McAsuno
bobbythebrain said:
Bouchard is having a struggling year no doubt, but that's all you see...or want to see i should say.

Bouch still makes waaaaay more good plays than bad ones. You just fail to recognize or acknowledge them, and when he plays well, you go silent.

There's also this little part of the season called playoffs. Maybe you've heard of it. And in this part of the year called playoffs... Bouchard has been an absolute monster every year.

Only a bonehead would allow him to walk into FA
Click to expand...
Not just a monster, last season was one the best post seasons by a defenseman in NHL history....a player doesn't just "luck" into one of those without an elite skill set to begin with.
 
  • Like
Reactions: McAsuno and bobbythebrain
bobbythebrain said:
McDavid and Draisaitl don't make the playoffs with half the teams in the league. What's your point exactly?
Click to expand...
I don't know about that lol. McDrai inserted into every team, most teams won't miss the playoffs. The Oilers between 2016-17 and prior to covid season were horribly managed. Probably worst team in the league without McDrai
 
Gunnersaurus Rex said:
Found it noticeable and interesting that for the final 3 1/2 minutes of the game, in a tight match up that the coaching staff sat Bouchard and went with 14/49 & 25/27 as the defence pairings.
Recognition that Bouchard is a defensive liability and can't be trusted in those situations ???
Click to expand...

I noticed that too... looked to me like candy given to Emberson for a game well played.

Checked the stats:

Time on ice protecting a 1-goal lead (at 5v5):
Emberson = 117mins
Bouchard = 183mins

Time on ice protecting an empty net:
Emberson = 9mins (~2mins of that last night)
Bouchard = 8mins

No shame in any of that... Emberson has come as advertised, pretty rock solid defensively, not much else.
 
Canovin said:
I don't know about that lol. McDrai inserted into every team, most teams won't miss the playoffs. The Oilers between 2016-17 and prior to covid season were horribly managed. Probably worst team in the league without McDrai
Click to expand...

Sure, maybe both. But the OP said just Bouchard...so same logic should apply. One of McDavid or Drai.

Mackinnon is having a fantastic year, way better than Mcdavid.but Col hasn't been very good this year and just got into a playoff spot. Now imagine them without Makar. They'd be awful.
 
bobbythebrain said:
McDavid and Draisaitl don't make the playoffs with half the teams in the league. What's your point exactly?
Click to expand...
Good point, there is only one place he can play with mcd and drai😀

So I’m just saying it’s not a straight contract value vs the whole of the nhl.

You have to consider the opportunity a team allows the player to win.

Is that of value to the player? And of course the other side, do we want a player who doesn’t value that?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Ad

Latest posts

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Top Bottom