Speculation: Evan Bouchard asking $11M AAV on his next deal

[WhataKnight]

Asking $11M on a team with Edmonton’s cap structure……???

Seriously, bro?

 

[DingerMcSlapshot]

2x7.5M. Take it or leave it. How would you like to play in Arizona?

 

[WhataKnight]

2x7.5M. Take it or leave it. How would you like to play in Arizona?

Basically something not far from that.

Promise him the best bonus-laden deal after he takes a bridge. Gives the Oil time to vacate a cumbersome contract or two.

Which is better, fighting this out now for a contentious $11M, or letting the cap increase, letting the team figure out a way to free up money, and getting a better deal after the brunt of Draisaitl’s deal kicking in is through?

 

[VainGretzky]

wrong

Prove me wrong you can't because I am right

 

[Breakers]

Prove me wrong you can't because I am right

17+32+82 is 131 points (not 141)
118 Games played
that's 1.11 points per game

Makar
110 points in 94 games played
thats 1.17 points per game

so in you cherry picked bull-shit example you're still wrong.

 

[VainGretzky]

17+32+82 is 131 points (not 141)
118 Games played
that's 1.11 points per game

Makar
110 points in 94 games played
thats 1.17 points per game

so in you cherry picked bull-shit example you're still wrong.

Not cherry picked and that's not the sample go back to when Barrie was traded from the Oilers when Bouchard was moved to PP and 1st line minutes but that part I did add wrong No other dman in the league has had as many points as him since Barrie was traded Bouchard has had been well above a ppg since

 

[Soundwave]

I always get a kick out of people who pretend they know what they're talking about


If the cap went up $4M every year, it would still take 4 more years before the cap reached $100M in 2027-28.

And its a mighty big assumption to believe the cap will go up at a rate of $4M every year for the next 4 years, with the looming CBA, the unknowns of a TV deal(The ongoing situation with Sportsnet actually paints a pretty bad picture for that contract despite your beliefs) negotiations and the players constant unwillingness to use the accelerator.


A $100M cap hit in 2 years is just pure fantasy land. There's a chance they reach $100M in 4 years, but a lot of things would have to go right for the league over those 4 years to hit that mark. Possible, but not a slam dunk by any means.

I could see it being 97 million in 2 years fairly comfortably well en route to crush $100 million, then en route to 110 million.

Are ticket prices going down? Jersey prices going down? Price of beer, parking, hot dogs going down? No, everything is getting more and more expensive. That inflation ties into HRR, especially entertainment events which are outpacing standard inflation.

Then add in Utah probably providing a revenue boost over whatever peanuts the Coyotes were bringing in, then add in 5 Countries Hockey tournament, I would say 3.5-4 mill cap rise for next year isn't unreasonable.

A TV deal is almost assuredly going to be larger than the previous one. Canada has a much larger population now than in 2012, the Oilers Finals game 7 had some of the highest TV ratings in Canada, Rogers is fully invested in the Leafs now too. They can't get off that train even if they want to.

The NBA went from a $26 billion TV deal signed in 2016 to $76 million just signed.

I would not be surprised to see the Canadian TV deal double or even triple. There is nothing else even with declining ratings that can compete with live sports, that's why the NBA is still making bank even though their ratings are dropping.

What I think will happen is the NHL will seek a NBA like package from multiple sources this time instead of Sportsnet getting 100% exclusivity, it will be split between Sportsnet, Amazon, and TSN/RDS. NBA did something similar getting NBC, ESPN, and Amazon for their sports package.

So 3.5-4 lets say increase for next year, followed by 5+ mill the following year I don't think is unreasonable.

2 million increase is low too because 2 million inflation adjusted is not what it used to be. Saying 2 million rise should be the normal now would be more like 1.6 million cap rise yearly from 05-06 to 15-16, the cap was rising by way more than that back then.

 

[WarriorofTime]

I don't see an issue with that ask.

 

[Rowlet]

Has a team ever won a cup with 3 players making 10 mill a year?

Not literally 10m but if you checked it as equivalent cap percentages it's possible.

 

[PAZ]

Bouchard's floor is 10 mil unless he really wants to stay in Edmonton.

Anything starting in the $8 mil is pure fantasyland. $9 mil if he wants to take a large discount, but I'm guessing that since he's significantly outperformed his bridge deal he wants to be paid. He agreed to bet on himself and it paid off.

 

[jackjohnson]

Psst... Nurse had more goals than EP in the playoffs.

So why do oilers fans hate the contract? He is better than Petey so he deserves his contract

Bouchard's floor is 10 mil unless he really wants to stay in Edmonton.

Anything starting in the $8 mil is pure fantasyland. $9 mil if he wants to take a large discount, but I'm guessing that since he's significantly outperformed his bridge deal he wants to be paid. He agreed to bet on himself and it paid off.

Hopefully its will be 12 mil × 8 years

 

[jackjohnson]

I could see it being 97 million in 2 years fairly comfortably well en route to crush $100 million, then en route to 110 million.

Are ticket prices going down? Jersey prices going down? Price of beer, parking, hot dogs going down? No, everything is getting more and more expensive. That inflation ties into HRR, especially entertainment events which are outpacing standard inflation.

Then add in Utah probably providing a revenue boost over whatever peanuts the Coyotes were bringing in, then add in 5 Countries Hockey tournament, I would say 3.5-4 mill cap rise for next year isn't unreasonable.

A TV deal is almost assuredly going to be larger than the previous one. Canada has a much larger population now than in 2012, the Oilers Finals game 7 had some of the highest TV ratings in Canada, Rogers is fully invested in the Leafs now too. They can't get off that train even if they want to.

The NBA went from a $26 billion TV deal signed in 2016 to $76 million just signed.

I would not be surprised to see the Canadian TV deal double or even triple. There is nothing else even with declining ratings that can compete with live sports, that's why the NBA is still making bank even though their ratings are dropping.

What I think will happen is the NHL will seek a NBA like package from multiple sources this time instead of Sportsnet getting 100% exclusivity, it will be split between Sportsnet, Amazon, and TSN/RDS. NBA did something similar getting NBC, ESPN, and Amazon for their sports package.

So 3.5-4 lets say increase for next year, followed by 5+ mill the following year I don't think is unreasonable.

2 million increase is low too because 2 million inflation adjusted is not what it used to be. Saying 2 million rise should be the normal now would be more like 1.6 million cap rise yearly from 05-06 to 15-16, the cap was rising by way more than that back then.

It will be terrible if we have to subscribe to 3 or 4 streaming service, pay $80 a month to watch all of the NHL games. Sportsnet plus will not be worth $20 a month only to have partial NHL coverage. If thats the case than NHL TV should come back to Canada to cover all the games with one service since no channels will have exclusive rights

 

[Roof Daddy]

Unless he's looking to leave Edmonton and pick this destination this doesn't work anymore. Why wait until UFA status when he can get it now?

What are you talking about? How can he get it now? For starters, he’s still signed for another year. Then we can revisit his ask next off-season and, if it’s still 11 mil and we don’t see him holding that value, then we go to arbitration where he can point to Dahlin (who most would agree is better than Bouch) and we can point to Makar, Heiskanen and Hughes. Unless a bunch of other Dmen sign for 10+ mil in that time, I would have to think an arbitrator sides with the 8-9 mil range.

I think most players walk away from arbitration hearings wishing they hadn’t gone that route (regardless of the decision) because of the nasty nature of the process. I think 2yrs x 8 is a fair bridge to get to UFA status. Then he can see his worth on the open market.

 

[Soundwave]

It will be terrible if we have to subscribe to 3 or 4 streaming service, pay $80 a month to watch all of the NHL games. Sportsnet plus will not be worth $20 a month only to have partial NHL coverage. If thats the case than NHL TV should come back to Canada to cover all the games with one service since no channels will have exclusive rights

Not really that different from the days before the Sportsnet deal where you had to have TSN and Sportsnet in your cable packages to get all the games (well most). And then CBC I guess was free.

NHL will absolutely going for the max they can get though. Record high TV ratings for the last Cup Final (game 7 in particular) gives them a lot of leverage, Rogers going all in on the Leafs ownership stake, if you're not going to spend on live NHL hockey, what exactly are you supposed to run on Sportsnet and TSN? lol. Amazon is another new entrant that has big, big money to spend, clearly they are seeing live sports as a way to drive their subscription service in competition versus Netflix (I think they're right on that too, Netflix is late to this party).

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

Good luck for Evan because he's not going to get that elsewhere.

Players need to realize this is a whole different NHL and you really got to work your butt off in order to get an extension worth a lot. But again, it's Edmonton so they're going to need to maneuver. No way they get rid of Nurse's contract unless he waives it.

In today's NHL you're pretty much stuck with the team that drafted you unless otherwise and you should take an above average deal with that team. See Scheifele for example.

 

[Habby4Life]

No chance he takes a penny less than 9.5 and should stick to 10+

You can’t expect him to take less than Nurse. Oilers set the bar, that’s on them.

If Nurse is 9.5, Bouch should get 16

 

[Soundwave]

Good luck for Evan because he's not going to get that elsewhere.

Players need to realize this is a whole different NHL and you really got to work your butt off in order to get an extension worth a lot. But again, it's Edmonton so they're going to need to maneuver. No way they get rid of Nurse's contract unless he waives it.

In today's NHL you're pretty much stuck with the team that drafted you unless otherwise and you should take an above average deal with that team. See Scheifele for example.

Immediately getting rid of Nurse is a non-starter even without his NTC, he is very close to McDavid, until the McDavid extension is signed you don't move Nurse.

In 2 years, Nurse's NMC moves into a general NTC 10-team trade list, and his actual salary drops significantly too, to 7.2 million/year in actual dollars.

At *that* time, you should have McDavid locked in to his extension, maybe then you do entertain the possibility of moving Nurse at say 1 million retained, it would open up $8.25 million cap space but the receiving team (assuming you're trading to a team below the cap roof) would be getting him for 6.2 million basically in real dollars.

This is also why bridging Bouchard again for 2 years may not be the worst idea in the world. You have a lot more options 3 years from now.

 

[Fatass]

So why do oilers fans hate the contract? He is better than Petey so he deserves his contract


Hopefully its will be 12 mil × 8 years

The Dahlin contract has put a wrench into what D are now going to get.,

 

[AlwaysSunnyInDetroit]

Immediately getting rid of Nurse is a non-starter even without his NTC, he is very close to McDavid, until the McDavid extension is signed you don't move Nurse.

In 2 years, Nurse's NMC moves into a general NTC 10-team trade list, and his actual salary drops significantly too, to 7.2 million/year in actual dollars.

At *that* time, you should have McDavid locked in to his extension, maybe then you do entertain the possibility of moving Nurse at say 1 million retained, it would open up $8.25 million cap space but the receiving team (assuming you're trading to a team below the cap roof) would be getting him for 6.2 million basically in real dollars.

This is also why bridging Bouchard again for 2 years may not be the worst idea in the world. You have a lot more options 3 years from now.

this brings up an interesting scenario. what happens when a team retains on a contract where the cap hit and actual salary do not match up?

if the oilers retained 50% on nurse do they pay half of the actual salary but get penalized for half the cap hit? so they pay 3.6m but carry a 4.75m cap hit?

 

[Soundwave]

The Dahlin contract has put a wrench into what D are now going to get.,

Guys like Makar were always getting like 14-15+ on their next deals.

Their agents aren't stupid, everyone knows the cap is likely going to explode over the next few years, it's precisely why Matthews signed the contract he did, he wants to lock in again at a 100+ million cap and reap the benefits.

Drew Doughty signed for 11 in what feels like ages ago.

this brings up an interesting scenario. what happens when a team retains on a contract where the cap hit and actual salary do not match up?

if the oilers retained 50% on nurse do they pay half of the actual salary but get penalized for half the cap hit? so they pay 3.6m but carry a 4.75m cap hit?

I believe your second paragraph answers the question (yes it's based basically on percentage on both the cap hit and actual salary).

 

[KrisLetAngry]

He had a ridiculous year last year.

Point per game and his playoffs was on point.

He does deserve to be paid

 

[ICanMotteBelieveIt]

Hell get 10. Cap will be 100 in 2 years. Doesnt matter. You can still fill out a great team with 60 mill

I'll bet you $100 that it won't be as high as $100 million in 2 years.

 

[Picklepete]

Hell get 10. Cap will be 100 in 2 years. Doesnt matter. You can still fill out a great team with 60 mill

1- He's crazy @ 11 mil..
2- fans are overestimating how much the cap is going to go up it will not be 100 million in 2 years ! IMO...

 

[DingerMcSlapshot]

Basically something not far from that.

Promise him the best bonus-laden deal after he takes a bridge. Gives the Oil time to vacate a cumbersome contract or two.

Which is better, fighting this out now for a contentious $11M, or letting the cap increase, letting the team figure out a way to free up money, and getting a better deal after the brunt of Draisaitl’s deal kicking in is through?

Yup. Rip it again and we will talk. Huge contract next time. Or renegotiate, maybe sooner. 2X15M is a reward for last season. Anything more is a stupid overpay.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

It's fine, just have the rest of the lineup take cheaper deals so they can have the pure honor of stepping on the same ice as McDrai+friends.