Value of: Erik Karlsson at the draft

[ThePlanet]

Now that the season has concluded, what would you(r team) offer up for the Century Man™? At this stage of his career, Karlsson is looking to go to a contending franchise, and this does not fit the timeline for a "retool" with the Sharks. Assumedly, GMMG would be looking for prospects and/or picks as the centerpiece of any deal. It's understood that his injury history, as well as a full NMC, will possibly affect the assets being offered in return. Offers may include retention or cap dumps, but this should also reflected in the returning value. May the best offer prevail!

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[DingDongCharlie]

Wouldn't be surprised to see Holland circle back for a 3rd attempt at getting him.

2024 1st + Bourgault + Kulak + Ceci (cap reasons) for Karlsson (30% retention).

I don't see either Ceci or Kulak as cap dumps but if made available they are likely in the 3rd round pick value spot. If a team was offering the 3 1sts value for Karlsson at 18% he would have been moved already.

If San Jose is hung up on getting a 2023 1st the Oilers are obviously out.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I could see Seattle, Edmonton, Florida, and maybe some other mystery team interested in Karlsson at the draft but a 1st or high 2nd is probably going to be asked for as necessary to get something done at the draft.

 

[Gecklund]

Wouldn't be surprised to see Holland circle back for a 3rd attempt at getting him.

2024 1st + Bourgault + Kulak + Ceci (cap reasons) for Karlsson (30% retention).

I don't see either Ceci or Kulak as cap dumps but if made available they are likely in the 3rd round pick value spot. If a team was offering the 3 1sts value for Karlsson at 18% he would have been moved already.

If San Jose is hung up on getting a 2023 1st the Oilers are obviously out.

Both of them are cap dumps. Add another first or good prospect especially at that retention. Horrible value

 

[PoutineSp00nZ]

Both of them are cap dumps. Add another first or good prospect especially at that retention. Horrible value

Karlsson's salary, injury history and the unliklihood of him repeating these numbers means that San Jose is going to have to take salary back at the very least in any trade, or add decent retention.

I doubt Sharks fans will ever be happy with the return he takes. No team with the capspace to add Karlsson is in a position to want or need him.

 

[GhostfaceWu]

Both of them are cap dumps. Add another first or good prospect especially at that retention. Horrible value

I'm sure this line of thinking will see karlsson finish out the contract on a bottom feeding team.

 

[Hockeylife2018]

Depends what SJ wants here

Do they think they are trading a prime 100 point defenceman?

Or are they trading an aging defenceman that put up outlier numbers on a crippling long term contract

As someone that would love EK, I'd be skeptical to trade for him

 

[admiralcadillac]

Depends what SJ wants here

Do they think they are trading a prime 100 point defenceman?

Or are they trading an aging defenceman that put up outlier numbers on a crippling long term contract

As someone that would love EK, I'd be skeptical to trade for him

Even if they are outlying numbers anyone in the league is interested in a 60-70 point dman.

Absolutely no one would be skeptical trading for him if they knew he’d be healthy. Seems like he’s back in shape this year.

You can’t expect the same production but the idea that he’ll revert to 50 points when he put up 100 basically alone is ridiculous.

 

[Gecklund]

Karlsson's salary, injury history and the unliklihood of him repeating these numbers means that San Jose is going to have to take salary back at the very least in any trade, or add decent retention.

I doubt Sharks fans will ever be happy with the return he takes. No team with the capspace to add Karlsson is in a position to want or need him.

He had 100 points. Ceci and Kulak offer nothing to us. The offer was a late first and a B prospect for the best defenseman in the league who just had the best season of any defenseman in the last 30 years AND we had to pay him 3.5M to not play for us. That’s shit.

And for the record I agree with your overall point. I literally said to add another first or good prospect for SJ to take 2 cap dumps and retain. Now we wouldn’t retain 3.5M without a team making it worth our while which this offer does not do in the slightest.

I'm sure this line of thinking will see karlsson finish out the contract on a bottom feeding team.

Oh yes because we should be lining up to pay a team to take Karlsson. Brilliant post. Again the offer was two cap dumps, a B prospect, and a late first in a not great draft for again the best defenseman in the league who just had the best season of any defenseman in the last 30 years AND we had to pay him 3.5M to not play for us. Stupid offer. That’s like me saying give me Nuge for NJD 1st, Bordeleau, Labanc, and Benning. Stupid post. Even then I think my offer is better than that shitty Karlsson one.

 

[Hockeylife2018]

Even if they are outlying numbers anyone in the league is interested in a 60-70 point dman.

Absolutely no one would be skeptical trading for him if they knew he’d be healthy. Seems like he’s back in shape this year.

You can’t expect the same production but the idea that he’ll revert to 50 points when he put up 100 basically alone is ridiculous.

So your saying all 31 teams are wanting to trade for what may be an injury prone 60-70 point 33 years old signed for 4 more years at 11.5 mil?

I think the market is smaller than you may think...

 

[Gecklund]

So your saying all 31 teams are wanting to trade for what may be an injury prone 60-70 point 33 years old signed for 4 more years at 11.5 mil?

I think the market is smaller than you may think...

He scored 100 points and played all 82 games. But no go off.

 

[Hockeylife2018]

He scored 100 points and played all 82 games. But no go off.

Hence the "may be" and not a "what is"
But no, go off

Ask calgary how well it worked for them trading/signing players that had outlier years...

Don't worry, I'm not being mean to your player...like I said it just depends what SJs expectations are for both the team and the player, if their rebuilding I can see them selling him off, if their looking for a quick turn around season then there's no point trading him, you aren't going to get what's he's worth

 

[BlueSeal]

EK is NOT a good Dman, I'm so sick and tired of hearing that. What he is, is a very talented forward playing the wrong position. As a Dman he desperately requires sheltering otherwise he's a liability. Yes, he will score like a madman but you'll also get scored on as well.

The one thing that makes him a must-have is his ability to have another gear in his game for when things get really tough. The guy is an absolute warrior who will go to war wearing your logo, play damn near crippled and not lose a step. Used correctly he can be that missing piece if firepower is the issue. He'll work best on a team with a deep and strong blueline that can mitigate his risk at D.

IMO, at 32, he is definitely worth 2 1sts. He is absolutely worth a 1st at this draft plus next year's but again his contract is the issue. No one should be paying that kind of money for a Dman who really isn't one. 11.5M x 4 is atrocious and if the Sharks REALLY want draft picks and prospects, they're going to need to take back cap dumps because it's the only way you're going to get value here.

But since the front office seems to be deadset on retooling than rebuilding, I can't see them being willing to trade EK. That makes no sense whatsoever.

So if your blueline desperately needs a top 4 on a lacking D Corps, he ain't it. But if you need firepower and your blueline is strong, here's your guy.

But I don't see the Sharks letting him go.

 

[Bizz]

It's gonna take at least 3 1sts to take EK65 with no retention. 5 1sts if you want 1% retention.

 

[Leafshater67]

Karlsson's salary, injury history and the unliklihood of him repeating these numbers means that San Jose is going to have to take salary back at the very least in any trade, or add decent retention.

I doubt Sharks fans will ever be happy with the return he takes. No team with the capspace to add Karlsson is in a position to want or need him.

Probably yes but I don’t see why they wouldn’t because they have nothing to lose and are at rock bottom right now with barely any future. Retaining him could get them a huge return now. He’ll be expired before they’re even close to competing / resigning young, high draft picks

 

[GhostfaceWu]

A

He had 100 points. Ceci and Kulak offer nothing to us. The offer was a late first and a B prospect for the best defenseman in the league who just had the best season of any defenseman in the last 30 years AND we had to pay him 3.5M to not play for us. That’s shit.

And for the record I agree with your overall point. I literally said to add another first or good prospect for SJ to take 2 cap dumps and retain. Now we wouldn’t retain 3.5M without a team making it worth our while which this offer does not do in the slightest.

Oh yes because we should be lining up to pay a team to take Karlsson. Brilliant post. Again the offer was two cap dumps, a B prospect, and a late first in a not great draft for again the best defenseman in the league who just had the best season of any defenseman in the last 30 years AND we had to pay him 3.5M to not play for us. Stupid offer. That’s like me saying give me Nuge for NJD 1st, Bordeleau, Labanc, and Benning. Stupid post. Even then I think my offer is better than that shitty Karlsson one.

No a stupid post is thinking a guy whose cap hit is under 5.2 is somehow the same as a guy with a caphit north of 11 million. Nobody is taking a 32 year old defenseman whose had injury problems the last few years with 4 years remaining at his caphit period.

 

[Saltcreek]

Both of them are cap dumps. Add another first or good prospect especially at that retention. Horrible value

EK value is a lot lower now because of his salary. If the deal that the Oilers were offering at the trade deadline was true then that would have been EKs peak value and Grier is a fool for not trading then.

There is no guarantee that EK will be even close to what he was this year and he is getting older and older.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

A

No a stupid post is thinking a guy whose cap hit is under 5.2 is somehow the same as a guy with a caphit north of 11 million. Nobody is taking a 32 year old defenseman whose had injury problems the last few years with 4 years remaining at his caphit period.

People said this about Burns and yet he’s in Carolina. Karlsson is the likely Norris winner. Someone will pay to acquire him.

 

[La Bamba]

I like Karlsson but I’d only take him if Campbell went the other way and another team ate 1-2M of Karlsson’s cap hit

The Oil need as much space as possible to re-sign McDrai

 

[AlanHUK]

People said this about Burns and yet he’s in Carolina. Karlsson is the likely Norris winner. Someone will pay to acquire him.

he was traded with 33% retention for a 4th line forward and a B prospect.

If that's the price for Karlsson of course someone will 'pay' it

 

[PensandCaps]

EK is NOT a good Dman, I'm so sick and tired of hearing that. What he is, is a very talented forward playing the wrong position. As a Dman he desperately requires sheltering otherwise he's a liability. Yes, he will score like a madman but you'll also get scored on as well.

The one thing that makes him a must-have is his ability to have another gear in his game for when things get really tough. The guy is an absolute warrior who will go to war wearing your logo, play damn near crippled and not lose a step. Used correctly he can be that missing piece if firepower is the issue. He'll work best on a team with a deep and strong blueline that can mitigate his risk at D.

IMO, at 32, he is definitely worth 2 1sts. He is absolutely worth a 1st at this draft plus next year's but again his contract is the issue. No one should be paying that kind of money for a Dman who really isn't one. 11.5M x 4 is atrocious and if the Sharks REALLY want draft picks and prospects, they're going to need to take back cap dumps because it's the only way you're going to get value here.

But since the front office seems to be deadset on retooling than rebuilding, I can't see them being willing to trade EK. That makes no sense whatsoever.

So if your blueline desperately needs a top 4 on a lacking D Corps, he ain't it. But if you need firepower and your blueline is strong, here's your guy.

But I don't see the Sharks letting him go.

Nuge has an actual good contract and is younger with less injury concerns. Not comparable.

Before this year the Sharks would've given him away for free. They should thank their lucky stars that he had this good of a year and get out fron that risky contract.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

I love Erik, but that contract and his injury history make him a huge risk. And I also saw enough of him in Ottawa to know how emotional he is. This was a 'prove it' year for him, and he blew up the league. I don't see him doing that again with San Jose or anyone else.

I wish that Cooke stomp never happened, that Melynk wasn't a cheap bastard, and the girlfriends on the team weren't neurotic drama queens. If things had worked out normally, Karlsson would have 4-5 Norris' under his belt right now an a couple of 100+ point seasons to brag about. Fans across the league were robbed of something special.


Now, all that said, if there is a team out there who thinks their window is the 23-24 and 24-25 seasons, and want to go all in for those two years and have a way to fit him on the roster....you might get yourself a decent trade deal. But I have a hard time seeing it.

 

[Gecklund]

A

No a stupid post is thinking a guy whose cap hit is under 5.2 is somehow the same as a guy with a caphit north of 11 million. Nobody is taking a 32 year old defenseman who’s had injury problems the last few years with 4 years remaining at his caphit period.

Wonderful then we will keep the only reason to keep showing up to games. Go offer your shit somewhere else.

He’s the best d man in the league by far. Go somewhere else with your D that won’t make it anywhere higher than our third pairing, your prospect that won’t be in our top 3 and probably not even top 5.

EK value is a lot lower now because of his salary. If the deal that the Oilers were offering at the trade deadline was true then that would have been EKs peak value and Grier is a fool for not trading then.

There is no guarantee that EK will be even close to what he was this year and he is getting older and older.

And there’s no guarantee he won’t.

 

[Skolman]

Wonderful then we will keep the only reason to keep showing up to games. Go offer your shit somewhere else.

He’s the best d man in the league by far. Go somewhere else with your D that won’t make it anywhere higher than our third pairing, your prospect that won’t

And there’s no guarantee he won’t.

Is he though?

Also, I'd bet heavily against Karlsson coming close to replicating this season again.

 

[Gecklund]

Is he though?

Also, I'd bet heavily against Karlsson coming close to replicating this season again.

Yes. He scored 100 points on a team with literally 4 top 6 forwards at its peak who lost one half way through.

I would to but to say it’s absolutely impossible is the same thing people said last offseason.

Like I’ve said I’m not asking for Bouchard+Broberg+their next 7 firsts. I’m saying we aren’t moving him for a B prospect, a late first that’s not even this year, and 2 cap dumps who aren’t good at all AND paying him 3.5M to not play for us. I think his return will be similar to Timo’s. 1st, conditional 1st that could be a 2nd, 1st round prospect, 2 useful cap dumps. Something like 1st, conditional 1st on playoff performance, Bourgault, Yamamoto, Ceci, for Karlsson with 20% retained. Hell I’d even let them throw in Campbell if they made it worth our while.