Value of: Erik Karlsson @ 50%

[weastern bias]

One of the most overlooked things about the Karlsson contract that make it such a difficult asset is that the last 2 years have signing bonuses which negate the benefits of a buyout

If the Pens bought him out next summer the penalies look like this:

26 - $7.32M ($1.10M for San Jose)
27 - $9.49M ($1.42M for San Jose)
28 - $797K ($120K for San Jose)
29 - $797K ($120K for San Jose

If they did so next summer:

27 - $9.13M ($1.37M for San Jose)
28 - $435K ($65K for San Jose)

The salary retention mitigates it to a marginal degree, but the signing bonus in the last season almost entirely wipes out any cap benefits to buying him out, if you aquire his contract you're either trading him again or seeing it through to the end, it's Doug Wilson's single most crippling signing of his entire career

 

[TooManyHumans]

If he is traded at 50% retention then no one is buying him out anyway.

 

[weastern bias]

If he is traded at 50% retention then no one is buying him out anyway.

The point is you HAVE to trade him with retention to attain cap relief, a buyout is off the table because it doesn't add cap space in any meaningful amount

He also has a full NMC and can't be waived, so if a team needs to move on their only option is to find a willing trade partner of which Karlsson also has to approve

The Penguins have no leverage with him, their best bet if they need to get off the deal is to do what the Sharks did, just let him be in charge and score with reckless abandon to pump up his trade value, though know the team will not be winning in the process, San Jose finished last in wins in Karlsson's 100 point season, and I don't think that kind of pump and dump scheme that wastes an entire year is gonna fly with Crosby as he enters the twilight of his career

He will also be a less desirable asset around the league since he'll be 2 years older and GMs saw this happen with Karlsson before, even at $5M dollars a 35 year old Erik Karlsson with 2 years left likely returns offsetting cap dumps and what is expected to be a late 1st round pick

 

[Gurglesons]

One of the most overlooked things about the Karlsson contract that make it such a difficult asset is that the last 2 years have signing bonuses which negate the benefits of a buyout

If the Pens bought him out next summer the penalies look like this:

26 - $7.32M ($1.10M for San Jose)
27 - $9.49M ($1.42M for San Jose)
28 - $797K ($120K for San Jose)
29 - $797K ($120K for San Jose

If they did so next summer:

27 - $9.13M ($1.37M for San Jose)
28 - $435K ($65K for San Jose)

The salary retention mitigates it to a marginal degree, but the signing bonus in the last season almost entirely wipes out any cap benefits to buying him out, if you aquire his contract you're either trading him again or seeing it through to the end, it's Doug Wilson's single most crippling signing of his entire career

Why is a team buying out a 50+ pt defenseman who only has two seasons left after this one?

The point is you HAVE to trade him with retention to attain cap relief, a buyout is off the table because it doesn't add cap space in any meaningful amount

He also has a full NMC and can't be waived, so if a team needs to move on their only option is to find a willing trade partner of which Karlsson also has to approve

The Penguins have no leverage with him, their best bet if they need to get off the deal is to do what the Sharks did, just let him be in charge and score with reckless abandon to pump up his trade value, though know the team will not be winning in the process, San Jose finished last in wins in Karlsson's 100 point season, and I don't think that kind of pump and dump scheme that's wastes an entire year is gonna fly with Crosby as he enters the twilight of his career

He will also be a less desirable asset around the league since he'll be 2 years older and GMs saw this happen with Karlsson before, even at $5M dollars a 35 year old Erik Karlsson with 2 years left likely returns offsetting cap dumps and what is expected to be a late 1st round pick

No GM cares about acquiring Erik Karlsson if he costs 5 mil and only has two years left.

 

[weastern bias]

Why is a team buying out a 50+ pt defenseman who only has two seasons left after this one?



No GM cares about acquiring Erik Karlsson if he costs 5 mil and only has two years left.

The only reason the Penguins would be moving off Karlsson at all, as I agree he is a player with a certain usefulness and utility, is to enhance capspace and roster flexibility as they try to compete in the final good years of Crosby's career

The point I'm making is that literally the only way they can get relief for his contract is to trade him, and no one wants him at $10M so you have to retain, a buyout does nothing for them

If they're trying to tank they don't need to get rid of him, the Sharks proved it's completely possible to tank with Karlsson on the roster

If they're trying to compete they clearly need some kind of shake up as they've missed the playoffs in back to back years, and if they're not firing the coach and not moving any other core pieces then Karlsson is the odd one out, I'm just illustrating the reasons he's such a challenging piece to move and is such a perceived risk around the league, which lessens his trade value

None of this even touches on his long injury history, he played 82 games in back to back years but he only played 73% of his team's available games over the previous 4 years (shortened season and divisional season included, but that's a 60 games played pace per 82) and is getting older, it's no mystery why this still very talented and productive player does not have much trade value around the league even at 50% retention, he's super risky to aquire

 

[Gurglesons]

The only reason the Penguins would be moving off Karlsson at all, as I agree he is a player with a certain usefulness and utility, is to enhance capspace and roster flexibility as they try to compete in the final good years of Crosby's career

The point I'm making is that literally the only way they can get relief for his contract is to trade him, and no one wants him at $10M so you have to retain, a buyout does nothing for them

If they're trying to tank they don't need to get rid of him, the Sharks proved it's completely possible to tank with Karlsson on the roster

If they're trying to compete they clearly need some kind of shake up as they've missed the playoffs in back to back years, and if they're not firing the coach and not moving any other core pieces then Karlsson is the odd one out, I'm just illustrating the reasons he's such a challenging piece to move and is such a perceived risk around the league, which lessens his trade value

None of this even touches on his long injury history, he played 82 games in back to back years but he only played 73% of his team's available games over the previous 4 years (shortened season and divisional season included, but that's a 60 games played pace per 82) and is getting older, it's no mystery why this still very talented and productive player does not have much trade value around the league even at 50% retention, he's super risky to aquire

I don't see any world where in a year or two the Penguins care about retaining 50% on EK for a year or two if it maximizes the return.

He didn't really have a long injury history prior to destroying his ankle.

I don't think any thing you've brought up matters. The Penguins aren't expecting a massive return from EK65. The point would be to get some assets and not have another 34/35+ year old on their roster.

35 year old Ryan McDonagh just returned a 2nd and a 7th with two years left on his deal. No chance in hell PIT can't get some value back for EK65 at 50% with two years left next off season.

 

[weastern bias]

I don't see any world where in a year or two the Penguins care about retaining 50% on EK for a year or two if it maximizes the return.

He didn't really have a long injury history prior to destroying his ankle.

I don't think any thing you've brought up matters. The Penguins aren't expecting a massive return from EK65. The point would be to get some assets and not have another 34/35+ year old on their roster.

35 year old Ryan McDonagh just returned a 2nd and a 7th with two years left on his deal. No chance in hell PIT can't get some value back for EK65 at 50% with two years left next off season.

The ankle injury happened in February 2013, that will be 12 years ago this season, forget about the injury history before that happened, he has a 10 year long injury history AFTER it happened

Ryan McDonough is a 2 time champion with the team that just aquired him, Erik Karlsson hasn't played a playoff game in 5 years, they do not have the same perceived value around the league

Of course you retain to maximize his return, my point is that maximum return is likely to be the roughly the same thing the Penguins sent out to get him in the first place, neutral value contracts and what the acquiring team hopes is a late 1st round pick

 

[5 14 6 1]

With the Pens rebuilding, what would the value of Erik Karlsson be at 50%?
Pens would be looking for draft picks and prospects. No cap dumps or older roster players.

I can offer a gently used Darnell Nurse

 

[Gurglesons]

The ankle injury happened in February 2013, that will be 12 years ago this season, forget about the injury history before that happened, he has a 10 year long injury history AFTER it happened

Ryan McDonough is a 2 time champion with the team that just aquired him, Erik Karlsson hasn't played a playoff game in 5 years, they do not have the same perceived value around the league

Of course you retain to maximize his return, my point is that maximum return is likely to be the roughly the same thing the Penguins sent out to get him in the first place, neutral value contracts and what the acquiring team hopes is a late 1st round pick

In the last 4 seasons EK65 has missed a 36 of 302 games.

I think you are overlooking how much EK65 being owed 40 mil versus being owed 11ish mil in his last two seasons if the Penguins pay the signing bonus.

I get it. Sharks fans don't like EK65. You were in a much different position than the Penguins will be after this season.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Assuming Gallagher would waive to play with Crosby or does not have Pittsburgh on his extensive no trade list, a trade that makes sense is Karlsson for Gallagher. Maybe a small plus on Montreal's side like a 2nd or 3rd round pick, but certainly not a 1st round pick. Taking on a bad contract as a proxy for retention gives Pittsburgh a lot more flexibility than retaining half.

Karlsson might waive for Montreal because his family considers their home to be in Ottawa, and Montreal is an hour away on a private jet, or a 3 hour drive.

The trade would not be about adding Gallagher to Pittsburgh's roster. At the heart of it, it's a money trade and he is a proxy for retention, not a player they covet.

Pittsburgh would have an out from Gallagher's contract that doesn't exist with Karlsson, they could buy him out in 2025. Ultimately, they would gain 3.5M of cap in 24-25, and then they would gain another 10.5M of cap over the lifetime of both contracts. Not to mention, they would save a significant amount of real money (1 year of Gallagher+buyout=16M, 3 more years of Karlsson=27.5M).

Whether you add in a D and an F on each side to even out the depth charts, whatever - but that's the kind of trade I would expect if Pittsburgh successfully manages to move on from Karlsson. I wouldn't expect them to retain half. I also wouldn't expect a significant return, unless it had conditional elements.

 

[weastern bias]

In the last 4 seasons EK65 has missed a 36 of 302 games.

I think you are overlooking how much EK65 being owed 40 mil versus being owed 11ish mil in his last two seasons if the Penguins pay the signing bonus.

I get it. Sharks fans don't like EK65. You were in a much different position than the Penguins will be after this season.

I don't have any special ill will for Karlsson, I kinda feel bad for the guy, he's a uniquely talented player that keeps finding himself in unfortunate circumstances

But there are actually a lot of strong similarities to between the 2024 Penguins and where the Sharks were in 2020, aging core, term committed to bad contracts, brought in Karlsson to spark the team when they already had a #1RHD lead PP guy, traded a pick for him which turned into a valuable 1st, it's kind of uncanny

But again, using the last 4 seasons, which include his back to back 82 gamers, skews what the norm has been for him over the longer term

His last 8 seasons:
77 GP
71 GP
53 GP
56 GP (of 70)
52 GP (of 56)
50 GP
82 GP
82 GP

You have to go back 9 years to find another full 82 game season, and in that time he played 84% of his team's games WHEN INCLUDING those 2 full seasons, meaning he averages missing 12 games a year when generously adding the recent outliers to the equation

It's not shocking that managers around the league see him as a risk, he's got a longer recent track record of injury riddled seasons than healthy campaigns

 

[Gurglesons]

I don't have any special ill will for Karlsson, I kinda feel bad for the guy, he's a uniquely talented player that keeps finding himself in unfortunate circumstances

But there are actually a lot of strong similarities to between the 2024 Penguins and where the Sharks were in 2020, aging core, term committed to bad contracts, brought in Karlsson to spark the team when they already had a #1RHD lead PP guy, traded a pick for him which turned into a valuable 1st, it's kind of uncanny

But again, using the last 4 seasons, which include his back to back 82 gamers, skews what the norm has been for him over the longer term

His last 8 seasons:
77 GP
71 GP
53 GP
56 GP (of 70)
52 GP (of 56)
50 GP
82 GP
82 GP

You have to go back 9 years to find another full 82 game season, and in that time he played 84% of his team's games WHEN INCLUDING those 2 full seasons, meaning he averages missing 12 games a year when generously adding the recent outliers to the equation

It's not shocking that managers around the league see him as a risk, he's got a longer recent track record of injury riddled seasons than healthy campaigns

Trading Erik Karlsson at 5 mil for two years will be simple.

Thanks for your thoughts.

 

[weastern bias]

Trading Erik Karlsson at 5 mil for two years will be simple.

Thanks for your thoughts.

Cool, @ me when it happens for positive value that amounts to more than a 1st round pick and I'll say I was wrong

 

[sensfan4lifee]

Norris for Karlsson no retention lets do it

 

[Henkka]

The type of teams that would be interested in Karlsson at 50% are also the type of teams that would have to send salary back to fit him in, even at 50%.

Detroit could trade him for Jeff Petry.

 

[Gurglesons]

Cool, @ me when it happens for positive value that amounts to more than a 1st round pick and I'll say I was wrong

Then I would have to trust Kyle Dubas.

 

[gdsmack267]

Pens will have to attach a 2nd or an excellent prospect to get rid of that contract.

One of the more ridiculous takes I've seen. EK at $5million would cost the penguins assets to move? In what world are you living in?

 

[weastern bias]

Then I would have to trust Kyle Dubas.

I was told it would be simple, lol

I also don't think Dubas is a good GM, great amateur talent scout, but bad GM, but he usually gets pretty good value in trades, at least he did in his Toronto days

I do think he's got an especially difficult situation to navigate in Pittsburgh right now, but that's also his fault because he acquired the Karlsson contract in the first place

I think the most likely outcome is that Karlsson is there for the next 2 and half years and is traded for pretty good value at 50% retention at the deadline in the last year of his contract, he'd be a really enticing rental

 

[HockeyVirus]

Dubas moves half of the Penguins future assets for him to retain 50% and get nothing for him a year later sounds about right

 

[DearDiary]

Dubas moves half of the Penguins future assets for him to retain 50% and get nothing for him a year later sounds about right

They got out of Petry, Granlund and Rutta

 

[bert]

If Erik Karlsson is your top Defenseman then you are not competing for the Stanley Cup.

Boston fans still bitter about 2017.

We're not competing for the cup? The whole premise of the thread.

Haha this guy paying attention at all?

 

[sensfan4lifee]

I was told it would be simple, lol

I also don't think Dubas is a good GM, great amateur talent scout, but bad GM, but he usually gets pretty good value in trades, at least he did in his Toronto days

I do think he's got an especially difficult situation to navigate in Pittsburgh right now, but that's also his fault because he acquired the Karlsson contract in the first place

I think the most likely outcome is that Karlsson is there for the next 2 and half years and is traded for pretty good value at 50% retention at the deadline in the last year of his contract, he'd be a really enticing rental

How is he a good scout lol the leafs farm system argues other wise

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Oli Maatta and a 4th for Karlsson at 50% retained. Maatta is off the books next year.

 

[weastern bias]

How is he a good scout lol the leafs farm system argues other wise

He's pretty good at finding legitimate NHL prospects in the 2nd round like Knies and Robertson

His obsessive pursuit of looking for skill above everything else has lead him to build incredibly unbalanced rosters, but when scouting draft prospects it's proven useful because he looks for productive players above all else, which is best to aquire through the draft because those productive scorers are the hardest thing to aquire in free agency or trade

Where he goes wrong is when trying to surround those players with support pieces on the NHL roster because he doesn't value physicality, defense, leadership or intangibles enough, he's got his nose buried in the spreadsheet and just tries to aquire the bigger number on the counting stats, but in the draft I think he does a pretty good job

Part of the Leafs problem with their prospect pool is they kept trading off good prospects for deadline acquisitions that never take them over the top, so their cupboard is depleted and they have no winning to show for it

 

[Juxtaposer]

I'm sorry for intentionally misinterpreting this.

I said that you traded for Karlsson and you missed the playoffs. Those are both facts. I did not in any way state that you missed the playoffs BECAUSE you traded for Erik Karlsson. Learn to read.